Political Business Cycles and Imprisonment Rates in Italy: Report on a Work in Progress

Sociologists have shown the presence of statistically significant associations between changing economic conditions and rates of imprisonment in a number of countries characterized by common law systems. Furthermore, these associations do not seem to be mediated by changing rates of criminal behavior. This article considers the possibility that the same relationships exist in a civil law society, Italy, for the period 1896–1965. It then goes on to highlight an hypothesis and possible test to explain the nature of these associations, based on the intervening role of public opinion.