A Regional Analysis of the Dependency between Registered Unemployment and the Stocks and Flows of Notified Vacancies

Abstract

This paper presents the results of a time-series analysis of short-term changes in the conditions prevailing in regional labour markets. A set of alternative indicators of changes in these conditions are evaluated for each of the standard regions by use of quarterly data for a period that includes the rapid changes in the economy associated with the ‘Barber Boom’. Leading indicators of changes in labour demand are contrasted with lagging indicators and the findings for different regions compared. The results of the analysis show that in general the numbers of vacant jobs and the rates at which the jobs are being filled provide leading indicators of changes in the region's level of unemployment and of changes in the duration of unemployment in the region, and that there is no feedback from unemployment to change the demand for labour in the region. In consequence it would be justified to claim that changes in regional unemployment and its duration are caused by changes in the demand for labour in the region.

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