Traditional methods of projecting age-specific migration for local areas are based on inflexible migration patterns. Ideally, forecast results should be isomorphic with the intent of the forecaster, so flexible models are called for. To this end, a parameterized model that incorporates directional flows is presented along with a theoretical scheme for its operation. It is asserted that the new model provides much of the needed flexibility, but at the cost of added complexity.
Get full access to this article
View all access options for this article.
References
1.
BowlesGKTarverJD, 1965Net Migration of the Population, 1950–60, by Age, Sex, and Color Economic Research Service, US Department of Agriculture (Government Printing Office, Washington, DC)
2.
BowlesGKBealeCLLeeES, 1975Net Migration of the Population, 1960–70, by Age, Sex, and Color (University of Georgia Printing Department, Athens, Georgia)
3.
BrackenIJ, 1976“Estimation and cluster analysis of net migration age profiles for urban areas in England and Wales”Regional Studies105369
4.
Cordey-HayesMGleaveD, 1974“Migration movements and the differential growth of city regions in England and Wales”Papers of the Regional Science Association3399123
5.
FeeneyG, 1973“Two models for multiregional population dynamics”Environment and Planning A53143
6.
GreenwoodMJ, 1975“Research on internal migration in the United States: A survey”The Journal of Economic Literature8397433
7.
HamiltonCHPerryJ, 1962“A short method for projecting population by age from one decennial census to another”Social Forces41160170
8.
IrwinR, 1977Guide for Local Area Population Projections TP-39, US Bureau of the Census (Government Printing Office, Washington, DC)
9.
McGinnisR, 1968“A stochastic model of social mobility”American Sociological Review33712722
10.
MillerAR, 1967“The migration of employed persons to and from metropolitan areas of the United States”Journal of the American Statistical Association6214181432
11.
MorrisonPAReliesD, 1975“Recent insights into local migration flows” Report P-5379 (The Rand Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif.)
12.
MorrisonPA, 1971“Chronic movers and the future redistribution of population; a longitudinal analysis”Demography8171184
13.
PittengerDB, 1974“A typology of age-specific migration rate distributions”Journal of the American Institute of Planners40278283
14.
PittengerDB, 1976Projecting State and Local Populations (Ballinger, Cambridge, Mass)
15.
ReesPHWilsonAG, 1975“A comparison of available models of population change”Regional Studies93961
16.
RogersA, 1975Introduction to Multiregional Mathematical Demography (John Wiley, New York)
17.
RogersAWillekensF, 1976“Spatial population dynamics”Papers of the Regional Science Association36334
18.
Shryock H S, Siegel J S, and Associates, 1971The Methods and Materials of Demography US Bureau of the Census (Government Printing Office, Washington, DC)
19.
StoneR, 1971Demographic Accounting and Model Building (OECD, Paris)
20.
US Bureau of the Census, 1963“U.S. census of population: 1960. Subject reports. Mobility for States and State Economic Areas” Final report PC(2)-2B (Government Printing Office, Washington, DC)
21.
US Bureau of the Census, 1966Current Population Reports series P-25, number 326
22.
US Bureau of the Census, 1972“Census of Population: 1970. Migration between State Economic Areas” Final Report PC(2)-2E (Government Printing Office, Washington, DC)
23.
YoungCM, 1975“Factors associated with the timing and duration of the leaving-home stage of the family life cycle”Population Studies296173
