A Multiregional Population-Projection Framework That Incorporates Both Migration and Residential Mobility Streams: Application to Metropolitan City—Suburb Redistribution
Restricted accessResearch articleFirst published online December, 1983
A Multiregional Population-Projection Framework That Incorporates Both Migration and Residential Mobility Streams: Application to Metropolitan City—Suburb Redistribution
In this paper the author introduces a population-projection framework that incorporates interregional migration and intraregional residential mobility streams to project future population sizes both across and within regions in a manner that is consistent with existing migration theory. The author presents a general matrix model of the framework, shows how its parameters can be estimated from fixed-interval census migration data, and discusses how the framework can be employed to ‘update’ population projections when recent, more limited data sets become available. These features of the framework are demonstrated with intrametropolitan central-city-suburb projections for selected US Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas over the period, 1970–2020.
Get full access to this article
View all access options for this article.
References
1.
FreyW H, 1978a, “Black movement to the suburbs: Potentials and prospects of metropolitan-wide integration” in The Demography of Racial and Ethnic Groups Eds BeanF DFrisbieW PAcademic Press, New York) pp 79–117
2.
FreyW H, 1978b, “Population movement and city-suburb redistribution: An analytic framework”Demography15(4) 571–588
3.
FreyW H, 1979a, “Central city white flight: Racial and nonracial causes”American Sociological Review44(3) 425–448
4.
FreyW H, 1979b, “White flight and central city loss: Application of an analytic migration framework”Environment and Planning A11129–147
5.
FreyW H, 1983, “Lifecourse migration of metropolitan whites and blacks and the structure of demographic change in large central cities” DP-83-47, The Population Studies Center of the University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI
6.
GoodmanJ LJr, 1978Urban Residential Mobility: Places, People and PolicyThe Urban Institute, Washington, DC
7.
GreenwoodM J, 1975, “Research on internal migration in the United States: A survey”Journal of Economic Literature13397–433
8.
GreenwoodM J, 1981Migration and Economic Growth in the US: National Regional and Metropolitan Perspectives (Academic Press, New York)
9.
HallPHayD, 1980Growth Centres in the European Urban System (Heinemann, London)
10.
LansingJ RMuellerE, 1967, “The geographic mobility of labor”Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI
11.
LongL H, 1973, “New estimates of migration expectancy in the United States”Journal of the American Statistical Association6837–43
12.
LongL HFreyW H, 1982, “Migration and settlement: 14. United States” RR-82-15, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
13.
LowryI S, 1966Migration and Metropolitan Growth (Chandler, San Francisco, CA)
14.
MorrisonP A, 1972, “Population movements and the shape of urban growth: Implications for public policy” in Population Distribution and Policy Ed. MazieS M, volume V of research reports of US Commission on Population Growth and the American Future (US Government Printing Office, Washington, DC) pp 281–322
15.
ReesP HWilsonA G, 1977Spatial Population Analysis (Edward Arnold, London)
16.
RogersA, 1975Introduction to Multiregional Mathematical Demography (John Wiley, New York)
17.
RossiP H, 1955Why Families Move (Free Press, New York)
18.
ShryockH SSiegelJ S, 1971The Methods and Materials of Demography (US Government Printing Office, Washington, DC)
US Bureau of the Census, 19701970 Census User's Guide (US Government Printing Office, Washington, DC)
21.
US Bureau of the Census, 1973Census of Population 1970. Subject Reports. Final Report PC(2)-C. Mobility for Metropolitan Areas (US Government Printing Office, Washington, DC)
22.
US Bureau of the Census, 1977aCurrent Housing Reports H-170-75-21. Annual Housing Survey: 1975. Atlanta, Georgia SMSA (US Government Printing Office, Washington, DC)
23.
US Bureau of the Census, 1977bProjections of the Population of the United States, 1977 to 2050. Current Population Reports. Series P-25, number 704 (US Government Printing Office, Washington, DC)
24.
US Bureau of the Census, 1978Current Housing Reports H-170-76-49. Annual Housing Survey: 1976: Houston, Texas SMSA (US Government Printing Office, Washington, DC)
25.
US Bureau of the Census, 1980Current Housing Reports H-170-77-5. Annual Housing Survey: 1977. Detroit, Michigan SMSA (US Government Printing Office, Washington, DC)
26.
US Department of Health Education and Welfare, 1975US Decennial Life Tables for 1969–71. Volume 1number 1, DHEW Publication number (HRA) 75–1150 (US Government Printing Office, Washington, DC)
27.
WillekensFRogersA, 1978, “Spatial population analysis: Methods and computer programs” RR-78-18, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
