This paper deals with the use of gravity models to examine journeys to work. The purpose of the paper is to study very simple examples demonstrating that gravity models may be subject to serious misspecification in aggregate systems. As an outcome of the theoretical analysis, the paper has several implications to empirical work. It suggests a variety of modifications, experiments, and testing regimes that can be carried out to examine the performance of gravity models for journeys to work.
Get full access to this article
View all access options for this article.
References
1.
AnasA, 1983, “Discrete choice theory, information theory and the multinomial logit and gravity models”Transportation Research B1713–23.
2.
BachL, 1981, “The problem of aggregation and distance for analyses of accessibility and access opportunity in location–allocation models”Environment and Planning A13955–978.
3.
BattyMSikdarP K, 1982a, “Spatial aggregation in gravity models. 1. An information-theoretic framework”Environment and Planning A14377–405.
4.
BattyMSikdarP K, 1982b, “Spatial aggregation in gravity models. 2. One-dimensional population density models”Environment and Planning A14525–553.
5.
BattyMSikdarP K, 1982c, “Spatial aggregation in gravity models. 3. Two-dimensional trip distribution and location models”Environment and Planning A14629–658.
6.
BattyMSikdarP K, 1982d, “Spatial aggregation in gravity models. 4. Generalisations and large-scale applications”Environment and Planning A14795–822.
7.
BattyMSikdarP K, 1984, “Proximate aggregation-estimation of spatial interaction models”Environment and Planning A16467–486.
8.
BaxterM J, 1983, “Model misspecification and spatial structure in spatial-interaction models”Environment and Planning A15319–327.
ErlanderSStewartN F, 1990The Gravity Model in Transportation Analysis: Theory and Extensions (VSP, Utrecht).
11.
FikT JMulliganG F, 1990, “Spatial flows and competing central places: Towards a general theory of hierarchical interaction”Environment and Planning A22527–549.
12.
FikT JMulliganG F, 1998, “Functional form and spatial interaction models”Environment and Planning A301497–1507.
13.
FikT JAmeyR GMulliganG F, 1992, “Labor migration amongst hierarchically competing and intervening origins and destinations”Environment and Planning A241271–1290.
14.
FotheringhamA S, 1981, “Spatial structure and distance-decay parameters”Annals of the Association of American Geographers71425–436.
15.
FotheringhamA S, 1983a, “Some theoretical aspects of destination choice and their relevance to production-constrained gravity models”Environment and Planning A151121–1132.
16.
FotheringhamA S, 1983b, “A new set of spatial-interaction models: The theory of competing destinations”Environment and Planning A1515–36.
17.
FotheringhamA S, 1984, “Spatial flows and spatial patterns”Environment and Planning A16529–543.
18.
FotheringhamA S, 1988, “Consumer store choice and choice-set definition”Marketing Science7299–310.
19.
GitlesenJ PThorsenI, 2000, “A competing destinations approach to modeling commuting flows: A Theoretical interpretation and an empirical application of the model”Environment and Planning A322057–2074.
20.
GitlesenJ PThorsenIUbøeJ, 2003, “Model misspecifications and spatial configuration”, working paper, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration, Bergen.
21.
HildenbrandW, 1999, “Editorial”, Special issue on aggregationJournal of Mathematical Economics311–14.
22.
HoltDSteelD GTranmerMWrigleyN, 1996, “Aggregation and ecological effects in geographically based data”Geographical Analysis28244–261.
23.
HornerM WMurrayA T, 2002, “Excess commuting and the modifiable areal unit”Urban Studies39131–139.
24.
LeonardiG, 1982, “A multiactivity location model with accessibility—and congestion—sensitive demand”Sistemi Urbani3267–310.
25.
NævdalGThorsenIUbøeJ, 1996, “Modeling spatial structures through equilibrium states of transition matrices”Journal of Regional Science36171–196.
26.
NijkampPReggianiA, 1992Interaction, Evolution and Chaos in Space (Springer, Berlin).
27.
PellegriniP AFotheringhamA S, 1999, “Intermetropolitan migration and hierarchical destination choice: A Disaggregate analysis from the US Public Use Microdata Samples”Environment and Planning A311093–1118.
28.
PellegriniP AFotheringhamA SLinG, 1997, “An empirical evaluation of parameter sensitivity to choice set definition in shopping destination choice models”Papers in Regional Science76257–284.
29.
SchwabM GSmithT R, 1985, “Functional invariance under spatial aggregation from continuous spatial interaction models”Geographical Analysis17217–230.
30.
SenASmithT, 1995Gravity Models of Spatial Interaction Behavior (Springer, Berlin).
31.
SheppardE, 1978, “Theoretical underpinnings of the gravity hypothesis”Geographical Analysis10386–402.
SheppardE, 1980, “Location and the demand for travel”Geographical Analysis12111–128.
34.
SteelD GHoltD, 1996a, “Rules for random aggregation”Environment and Planning A28957–978.
35.
SteelD GHoltD, 1996b, “Analysing and adjusting aggregation effects: The ecological fallacy revisited”International Statistical Review6439–60.
36.
ThillJ-C, 1992, “Choice set formation for destination choice modeling”Progress in Human Geography16361–382.
37.
ThorsenI, 1998, “Spatial consequences of changes in the transportation network: Theoretical analysis and numerical experiments within a multizonal three sector model”Papers in Regional Science771–32.
38.
ThorsenIGitlesenJ P, 1998, “Empirical evaluation of alternative model specifications to predict commuting flows”Journal of Regional Science38273–292.
39.
ThorsenIUbøeJNævdalG, 1999, “A network approach to commuting”Journal of Regional Science3873–101.
40.
WegenerM, 1994, “Operational urban models: State of the art”Journal of the American Planning Association6017–29.
41.
WegenerM, 1998, “Applied models of urban land use, transport and environment: State of the art and future developments”, in Network Infrastructure and the Urban Environment Eds LundquistLMattssonL-GKimT J (Springer, Berlin) pp 245–267.
42.
WilsonA G, 1967, “A statistical theory of spatial distribution models”Transportation Research1253–269.
43.
WilsonA G, 1998, “Land-use transport interaction models: Past and future”Journal of Transport Economics and Policy323–26.