Modeling the Effects of an Urban Growth Boundary on Vehicle Travel in a Small Metropolitan Area

An integrated land-use–transportation model was used to simulate the impact that an urban growth boundary would have on vehicle miles of travel in a small metropolitan community over a forty-year modeling horizon. The results of the modeling effort indicate that even in an area with low to moderate population growth, there is the potential to reduce vehicle miles of travel per person by as much as 25% from a business-as-usual scenario over a forty-year period. The reduction would result primarily from a shift of driving alone to carpooling or walking for many trips. A scenario in which growth is concentrated in a single urban core would also benefit from shorter average trip lengths; a scenario with multiple village centers would not have shorter trip lengths, but would still have significant improvements in total vehicle miles of travel.