Predicting the Consequences of a Nuclear Attack on Britain: Models,Results,and Implications for Public Policy

Abstract

The paper describes the structure of a suite of linked computer models of the sort used by central government to predict the effects of nuclear war on civilian populations. The models are used to report the casualties that could result from two attack scenarios; one is based on the 1980 Home Defence exercise codenamed ‘Square-Leg’, and the other is devised by the authors. A number of different sensitivity analyses are also performed. The results indicate that current official estimates about the numbers of casualties are highly optimistic. Current Home Defence policies involve a fraudulent attempt, in the authors' view, to lull the public into a false sense of safety. It is hoped that this paper will be the beginning of a more informed and open public and political debate about a subject which hitherto has escaped academic attention.

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