In 1992, nations in the drainage basin of the Baltic Sea launched the Joint Comprehensive Environmental Action Programme (JCP) to abate land-based sources of pollution affecting the sea. Some 132 ‘hot spots’ were designated for cleanup and/or environmental restoration. The first phase (phase 1) of the JCP ended in 1997. Analysis of environmental monitoring data from participating states indicate that the first phase failed to meet several pollution-abatement and investment goals prescribed at the outset of the JCP. A key shortcoming of phase 1 was partners' failure to remediate and delist ‘priority hot spots’ that were emphasized at the outset and that reside exclusively in former centrally planned economies. Among key determinants of underperformance in the JCP were the partners' overly optimistic forecasts for program accomplishments. This problem obscured the real achievements of the program, including its mobilization of substantial capital and human resources for hotspot cleanup. The partners' experience offers a cautionary tale to regional environmental program designers who rely on deficient baseline data and who develop program goals with use of crude forecasting methods.
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