According to recent official projections, 4.4 million new households will be formed in England between 1991 and 2016. These estimates are based on a detailed analysis of demographic trends, but take no account of the effect of potential changes in economic conditions, particularly on the owner-occupancy rate. In this paper, we propose a new approach to modelling sustainable owner-occupancy which places less emphasis on demographics, but considers in more detail the role of market mechanisms through changes in house prices and rates of new construction.
Get full access to this article
View all access options for this article.
References
1.
Ball, M. (1996) Housing and Construction: A Troubled Partnership?York: Joseph Rowntree Foundation .
2.
Breheny, M. and Hall, P. (1996) The People: Where Will They Go?London: TCPA.
3.
Buckley, R. and Ermisch, J. (1982) Government policy and house prices in the United Kingdom: an econometric analysis, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 44(4), pp. 273-304.
4.
Evans, A.W. (1996) The impact of land-use planning and tax subsidies on the supply and price of housing in Britain: a comment, UrbanStudies, 33, pp. 581-586.
5.
Forrest, R., Leather, P., Gordon, D. and Pan-Tazis, C. (1995) The future of home-ownership, HousingFinance, 27, August, pp. 9-15.
6.
Gyourko, J. (1995) The changing strength of socioeconomic factors affecting homeowner-ship in the United States. Paper prepared for the Economic Flexibility and Housing seminar, CHRUS, University of Glasgow .
7.
Holmans, A. (1995) Housing Demand and Need in England 1991-2011. York: Joseph Rowntree Foundation.
8.
Holmans, A. (1996) Housing Demand and Need in Wales 1991-2011. York: Joseph Rowntree Foundation.
9.
Malpezzi, S. (1996) Is theory outrunning measurement in real estate economics? Some observations from the US. Paper prepared for the SHAPE Conference , London Business School.
10.
Meen, G.P. (1990) The removal of mortgage market constraints and the implications for econometric modelling of UK house prices, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52(1), pp. 1-24.
11.
Meen, G.P. (1995a) Cycles and trends in UK housing. Discussion Paper in Urban and Regional Economics No. 114, University of Reading .
12.
Meen, G.P. (1995b) Is housing good for the economy?, Housing Studies, 10, pp. 405-424.
13.
Meen, G.P. (1996a) The housing user cost of capital, monetary policy and housing market stability. Discussion Paper in Urban and Regional Economics No. 116, University of Reading.
14.
Meen, G.P. (1996b) Ten propositions in UK housing macroeconomics: an overview of the 1980s and early 1990s, UrbanStudies, 33, pp. 425-444.
15.
Meen, G.P. (1996c) Modelling sustainable home-ownership: demographics or economics? Discussion Paper in Urban and Regional Economics No. 119, University of Reading.
16.
Muellbauer, J. and Murphy, A. (1996) Booms and busts in the UK housing market (mimeograph).
17.
Poterba, J.M. (1984) Tax subsidies to owner-occupied housing: an asset market approach, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 99, pp. 729-752.
