PD06.02
Background: The epidemiologic “tipping point” in the AIDS epidemic is the point at which the rate of ART treatment scale-up outpaces HIV incidence. AVAC and amfAR analyzed modeling research and consultated with top HIV prevention experts to lay out essential steps that must be taken by national governments, international organizations, civil society, researchers and technical agencies to steadily reduce annual new HIV infections and continue to expand HIV treatment access in order to meet the tipping point.
Methods: The analysis used modelling to build a prevention advocacy agenda around ending AIDS. The targets set reflect best-case scenario calculations based on published modeling and epidemiologic data, as well as analysis provided by experts in the field. Data projections were cross-checked with modelers and epidemiologists. Modelling data is tracked and updated to ensure the most recent metrics are used, and real-time data is included and analyzed as available.
Results: By engaging with modelling data, advocates are able to set real, measurable targets and hold accountable national and global agencies to ensure key data points are met, including decreasing new HIV infections and deaths, as well as specific epidemiologic and policy-based milestones tied to global scale-up of critical interventions. Rate of treatment coverage and the rate at which incidence decreases are key to the analysis—thus, real-time assessment of results allows advocates to use informed decision-making to ensure these time-related targets kept on track.
Conclusions: By using data-driven targets, such as the tipping point, as an advocacy tool, advocates can translate complex models for policy makers and donors to ensure continued and timely scale-up of core interventions and sustained resources. It is essential to continue scale-up and funding of key interventions and research towards ending AIDS, establishing a set of targets that advocates can track globally and nationally ensures movement towards, and beyond, the tipping point.
