Substitution Effect,Turnout Effect,or Both? Changes in Distance to the Early Voting Site and Voter Turnout

In an environment in which voters have multiple ways to cast their vote and ample time to adjust their voting plan, do changes in early voting polling place locations decrease voter turnout, or simply cause voters to choose other ways to cast their vote? In 2018, North Carolina passed the Uniform and Expanded Early Voting Act which increased the number of hours available statewide to cast an early ballot, but also brought about a decline in the total number of early voting locations in 70 of the state's 100 counties. This article takes advantage of this change by using geographic placement and distance changes in the affected counties to determine how voters who had cast a vote in previous elections responded to the change. We find that voters whose early voting sites were changed and particularly those whose sites were moved farther away were less likely to vote in the next election and more likely to choose another method of voting if they did cast a vote. These effects appear to be magnified among racial minorities.