Abstract
Introduction
The following report is an update of a market study of biobased polymers released 2 years ago by nova-Institute. This update expands the range of the initial market study and includes biobased building blocks as precursors of biobased polymers. Table 1 gives an overview on the covered biobased polymers and the producing companies with their locations and production capacities in 2013.
Biobased Polymers, Short Names, Current Biobased Carbon Content, Producing Companies with Locations and Production Capacities in 2013
Biobased carbon content: fraction of carbon derived from biomass in a product (EN 16575 Bio-based products – Vocabulary).
Currently still mostly fossil-based with existing drop-in solutions and a steady upward trend.
Starch in plastic compound.
Share of Biobased Polymers in the Total Polymer Market
The biobased share for structural polymers, which are the focus of the study, is 2%. For polymers overall, however, the biobased share is even higher (8.3%) because of the higher biobased shares in rubber (natural rubber, 43%) and manmade fibers (mainly cellulosic fibers, 11%). In 2011, these shares were 1.5% and 8.2%, respectively. The biobased share is clearly growing at a faster rate than that of the global polymer market (Fig. 1).
Polymers worldwide with biobased shares, 2013 (nova-Institute 2015).
This study focuses exclusively on biobased building block and polymer producers, and the market data therefore do not cover the biobased plastics branch. We must clearly differentiate between these two terms. A polymer is a chemical compound consisting of repeating structural units (monomers) synthesized through a polymerization or fermentation process, whereas a plastic material constitutes a blend of one or more polymers and additives.
Biobased Polymers
In 2014, for the first time, the European Bioplastics association (
This is a condensed version of a report developed by the authors together with ten international experts. The full market study is available at
The global capacities in 2013 and 2018 have been split by material type in Table 2. Biobased PET is the overall market leader and is expected to grow at a quick rate, from 37% in 2013 to 74% in 2018. As a consequence, the biobased non-biodegradable polymers market is expected to grow strongly as well since biobased PET is part of this category. In 2013 a distant second behind biobased PET was biobased PE, which was closely followed by polylactic acid (PLA), starch blends, and biodegradable polyesters such as polybutylene succinate (PBS) and poly(butylene adipate-co-terephthalate) (PBAT). However, in 2018, PLA would be second, followed by biodegradable polyesters, starch blends, and biobased PE. This means that PLA's production capacity could increase more than biobased PE's.
Global Production Capacities of Bioplastics by Material Type, 2013 and 2018 a
Source: European Bioplastics, Institute for Bioplastics and Biocomposites, nova-Institute, 2014.
Biobased content amounts to 30%, increase of volume subject to realization of planned production facilities.
Contains durable starch blends, Bio-PC, Bio-TPE, Bio-PUR (except thermosets).
Contains durable starch blends, Bio-PC, Bio-TPE, Bio-PUR (except thermosets), Bio-PP, PEF.
Contains PBAT, PBS, PCL.
Biodegradable cellulose ester.
Contains regenerated cellulose and biodegradable cellulose ester.
European Bioplastics's selection of biobased polymers and time span differ from nova- Institute's. nova-Institute decided to cover further biobased polymers by including biobased thermosets (epoxies, polyurethanes [PUR], and ethylene propylene diene monomer [EPDM] rubber) and cellulose acetate [CA] until 2020. Production capacity of biobased polymers will triple from 5.2 million tonnes in 2013 to nearly 17 million tonnes by 2020. The production capacity for biobased polymers boasts very impressive development and annual growth rates, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of almost 20% in comparison to petrochemical polymers, which have a CAGR between 3–4%. Due to their broader scope, nova-Institute's projected production capacities are much higher than those projected by European Bioplastics.
The 5.2 million tonnes represent a 2% share of overall structural polymer production at 256 million tonnes in 2013. This biobased share of overall polymer production has been growing over the years: it was 1.5% in 2011 (3.5 million tonnes biobased for a global production of 235 million tonnes). With an expected total polymer production of about 400 million tonnes in 2020, the biobased share should increase from 2% in 2013 to more than 4% in 2020, meaning that biobased production capacity will grow faster than overall production.
The most dynamic development is foreseen for drop-in biobased polymers, but this is closely followed by new biobased polymers. Drop-in biobased polymers are spearheaded by partly biobased PET, the production capacity of which was around 600,000 tonnes in 2013 and is projected to reach about 7 million tonnes by 2020, using bioethanol from sugar cane. Biobased PET production is expanding at high rates worldwide, largely due to the Plant PET Technology Collaborative (PTC) initiative launched by The Coca-Cola Company. The second most dynamic development is foreseen for polyhydroxyalkanoates (PHA), which, contrary to biobased PET, are new polymers, but still have similar growth rates to those of biobased PET. PLA and biobased PUR are showing impressive growth as well: their production capacities are expected to almost quadruple between 2013 and 2020.
Products with Well-Established Markets
Epoxies
Epoxies are approximately 30% biobased (only biobased carbon content, defined as fraction of carbon derived from biomass, considered in this report) and are produced out of biobased epichlorohydrin. The market is well established and is not expected to grow much since epoxies have already long been partly biobased.
Polyurethanes
PUR can be 10–100% biobased and are produced from natural oil polyols (NOP). Biobased succinic acid can be used to replace adipic acid. The global PUR market (including petro-based PUR) is continuously growing but the biobased PUR market is expected to grow faster.
Cellulose acetate
CA is 50% biobased. This market is similar to that of epoxies: well established, for example cigarette filters are made from CA, with small growth.
Polyethylene terephthalate
PET is currently 20% biobased and produced out of biobased monoethylene glycol (MEG) and terephthalic acid (TPA) as a drop-in biobased polymer. TPA is currently still petro-based but subject to ongoing R&D. Biobased TPA can be produced at pilot scale. Most biobased PET and MEG are produced in Asia. Biobased PET is one of the leaders of the biobased polymers market and is slated to become the biobased polymer with the biggest production capacity by far. This is largely due to the PTC initiative launched by The Coca Cola Company.
Other Biobased Polymers
Biobased epoxies, PUR, CA and PET have huge production capacities with a well-established market in comparison with other biobased polymers. However, other biobased polymers, such as those listed below, show strong growth as well. Some of these polymers are brand new biobased polymers. That is why their markets are smaller and need to be developed correspondingly.
Polytrimethylene terephthalate (PTT)
PTT is 27% biobased and made out of biobased 1,3-propanediol (1,3-PDO) and currently petro-based TPA. PTT is similar to PET since both have TPA as precursor. Biobased PTT and 1,3-PDO are produced by one leading company, DuPont. The market is well established and is not expected to grow much.
Polyethylene furanoate (PEF)
PEF is 100% biobased and is produced out of biobased 2,5-furandicarboxylic acid (2,5-FDCA) and MEG. PEF is a new polymer that is expected to enter the market in 2017. Just as PTT, PEF is similar to PET. Both PEF and PET are used in bottle production, however PEF is said to have better properties, such as better barrier properties, than PET. Technology company Avantium is heavily involved in the development of PEF and is planning a 2017 launch.
Ethylene propylene diene monomer rubber
EPDM is made out of biobased ethylene and can be 50–70% biobased. Specialty chemicals company Lanxess is currently producing biobased EPDM in Brazil. The market is small and is not expect to grow in the coming years.
Polyethylene
PE is a 100% biobased drop-in polymer. The biobased building block needed is ethylene, which is made out of sugar cane. Brazilian petrochemical company Braskem produces biobased PE in Brazil. Biobased PE has been on the market for a few years but its production capacity has hitherto remained the same. Further developments have been slowed down because of the shale gas boom.
Polybutylene succinate
PBS is biodegradable and currently mostly fossil-based but could in theory be 100% biobased. PBS is produced from 1,4-butanediol (1,4-BDO) and succinic acid. Both building blocks are available biobased but 1,4-BDO is not commercially available yet; this is expected in 2015. PBS is currently produced exclusively in Asia. It is expected to grow and profit from the availability and lower cost of biobased succinic acid.
Poly(butylene adipate-co-terephthalate)
PBAT is also currently mostly fossil-based. PBAT is produced from 1,4-BDO, TPA, and adipic acid. PBAT is biodegradable. PBAT can theoretically be up to 50% biobased since biobased adipic acid is not available yet. It is still at the research stage. PBAT has mostly been produced by one big company, BASF, but a new player, Jinhui Zhaolong High Technology, entered the market and another one, Samsung Fine Chemicals, which has a relatively small production capacity at the moment, is planning to extend its production capacity.
Polyamides (PA)
PA are a big family since there are many different types of polyamides. This explains the wide range of biobased carbon content: from 40–100%. Polyamides are generally based on sebacic acid, which is produced from castor oil. Evonik has recently developed a polyamide based on palm kernel oil. The market, which is expected to grow moderately, is headed by one big player, Arkema.
Polyhydroxyalkanoates (PHA)
PHA are 100% biobased and biodegradable even in cold sea water. PHA are produced through a fermentation process mainly by specific bacteria. Many different companies are involved in the production of PHA. The market is currently very small but is expected to grow tremendously. The joint venture Telles, set by Metabolix and ADM in 2006, aimed at big capacity but hardly sold any PHA and subsequently collapsed in 2012. PHA are brand new polymers, which means their market still needs time to fully develop. Nevertheless PHA producers and several new players are optimistic and see potential in PHA. Therefore, production capacity is expected to have grown 10-fold by 2020.
Starch blends
These are completely biodegradable and 25–100% biobased, with starch added to one or several biodegradable polymers. Many players are involved in the production of starch blends, but the Italian company Novamont is currently the market leader. The market is expected to keep on growing, with production capacity projected to double between 2013 and 2020.
Polylactic acid
PLA is 100% biobased and biodegradable but only under certain conditions. PLA is industrially compostable. Produced by numerous companies worldwide, with NatureWorks as market leader, PLA is the most well established new biobased polymer. However, the PLA market is still expected to grow further, with a projected 4-fold growth between 2013 and 2020. PLA can already be found at near-comparable prices to fossil-based polymers.
Summary of Biobased Polymers
In short, the most dynamic development is expected for biobased PET, with a projected production capacity of about 7 million tonnes by 2020. Second in the drop-in polymers group are biobased polyurethanes. Regardless, new biobased polymers such as PLA and PHA are showing impressive growth as well: PLA production capacity is expected to almost quadruple and PHA production capacity is expected to grow 10-fold between 2013 and 2020.
Biobased Building Blocks as a Precursor of Biobased Polymers
The total production capacity of the biobased building blocks reviewed in this study was 2 million tonnes in 2013 and is expected to reach 4.4 million tonnes in 2020, which means a CAGR of almost 12%. Contrary to biobased polymers, most of which are still partly biobased, biobased building blocks are 100% biobased. This explains why the total production capacity of biobased building blocks is considerably lower than the total production capacity of biobased polymers. On the other hand, we are currently witnessing the development of integrated biorefinery facilities that produce both biobased building blocks and polymers. This makes tracking production capacities a little more complicated. The most dynamic developments are spearheaded by succinic acid and 1,4-BDO, with MEG as a distant runner-up.
Biobased MEG, L-lactic acid (L-LA), ethylene, and epichlorohydrin are relatively well established on the market. These biobased building blocks cover most of the total production capacity. They are expected to keep on growing, especially biobased MEG and ethylene, whereas L-LA and biobased epichlorohydrin are projected to grow at a lower rate. Both are brand new drop-in biobased building blocks on the market. The first facilities are currently running and more will be built in the coming years.
Monoethylene Glycol
MEG is one of PET's building blocks. Biobased MEG is a drop-in that is mostly produced in Asia. The very fast increase in biobased PET production has had a considerable impact on the production capacities of biobased MEG.
L-lactic Acid
L-LA is PLA's building block, together with D-lactic acid (D-LA). Both are optical isomers of LA. L-LA is much more common than D-LA since D-LA is more complicated to produce. Lactide is an intermediate between LA and PLA. It can be bought as such to produce PLA. A lot of different companies are involved in this business worldwide since most LA has long been used in the food industry as, among other things, a food preservative, pH regulator, and flavoring agent. The production capacities do not only include LA used for polymer production, but also for the food industry. It is estimated that more than half of LA is used by the food industry.
Ethylene
Ethylene is PE's building block. Biobased ethylene is currently made from sugar cane in Brazil. Further developments have slowed down because of a sudden extreme price drop in petro-based ethylene due to the shale gas boom.
Epichlorohydrin
Epichlorohydrin is one of the building blocks of epoxies. Glycerin, which is a byproduct of the production of biodiesel, is used as feedstock.
Succinic Acid
Succinic acid is a very versatile building block. Biobased polymers such as PBS can be made of succinic acid but also other biobased building blocks such as 1,4-BDO. It can be used as well in PUR to replace adipic acid. However, the market still has to be developed. Petro-based succinic acid is not a big market since petro-based succinic acid is relatively expensive. Biobased succinic acid is actually cheaper than its petro-based counterpart. The first facilities have been running since 2013 and the next ones are already in the pipeline.
1,4-Butanediol
1,4-BDO is also a versatile building block. At the moment no facility able to produce commercial quantities is running but the first one is expected in 2015. 1,4-BDO can directly be produced from biomass or indirectly from succinic acid. Since biobased succinic acid is relatively new to the market, this partly explains why 1,4-BDO is still not commercially available.
2,3-Butanediol (2,3-BDO)
2,3-BDO is another isomer of butanediol. Global Bio-Chem Technology Group, based in China, is currently producing 2,3-BDO, which they obtain by processing corn.
1,3-Propanediol
1,3-PDO is one of PTT's building blocks. 1,3-PDO is mostly produced from corn by DuPont. The market is well established and is not expected to grow much.
2,5-Furandicarboxylic Acid
2,5-FDCA can be combined with MEG to produce PEF. 2,5-FDCA is a brand new building block that is expected to come to the market in 2017. Avantium is deeply involved in 2,5-FDCA but others are also showing interest.
Investment by Region
Most investment in new biobased polymer capacities will take place in Asia because of better access to feedstock and a favorable political framework. Table 3 shows the 2013 and 2018 global production capacities for biobased polymers repartitioned by region. European Bioplastics published these market data, which take into account fewer types of biobased polymers than nova-Institute. Due to the complexity of the manufacturing value chain structure of epoxies, PUR, and cellulose acetate, the breakdown by region cannot be reliably determined for all biobased polymers.
Global Production Capacities of Bioplastics by Region, 2013 and 2018 a
Source: European Bioplastics, Institute for Bioplastics and Biocomposites, nova-Institute, 2014.
Europe's share is projected to decrease from 17.3–7.6%, and North America's share is set to fall from 18.4-4.3%, whereas Asia's is predicted to increase from 51.4-75.8%. South America is likely to remain constant with a share at around 12%. In other words, world market shares are expected to shift dramatically. Asia is predicted to experience most of the developments in the field of biobased building block and polymer production, while Europe and North America are slated to lose more than a half and just over three quarters of their shares, respectively.
Production Capacities in Europe
Europe's position in producing biobased polymers is limited to just a few polymers. Europe has so far established a solid position mainly in the field of starch blends and is expected to remain strong in this sector for the next few years. Nevertheless, a number of developments and investments are foreseen in Europe. PLA production capacities, especially starch blend production capacities, are predicted to grow. The growth of these increased production capacities for starch blends can be traced back to Italy's Novamont, a leading company in this field. One noteworthy finding of other studies is that Europe shows the strongest demand for biobased polymers, while production tends to take place elsewhere, namely in Asia. In Europe, biobased polymer production facilities for PLA are not only small in size but also small in number. On the other hand, biobased PA and CA production is based in Europe and is likely to continue supplying for the growing markets of the building and construction and automotive sectors.
Europe does have industrial production facilities for PBAT, which is still fully fossil-based. However, judging by industry announcements and the ever-increasing capacity of its biobased precursors, PBAT is expected to be increasingly biobased, with a projected 50% share by 2020. Housing the leading chemical corporations, Europe is particularly strong and has great potential in the fields of high value fine chemicals and building blocks for the production of inter alia biobased PA, PUR, and thermosets. However, only few specific, large-scale plans for biobased building blocks incorporating concrete plans for the production of biobased polymers have been announced to date.
The European Union's relatively weak position in the production of biobased polymers is largely the consequence of an unfavorable political framework. In contrast to bioenergy and biofuels, there is no European policy framework to support biobased polymers, whereas bioenergy and biofuels receive strong and ongoing support during commercial production (quotas, tax incentives, green electricity regulations, market introduction programs, etc.). Without comparable support, biobased chemicals and polymers will suffer further from underinvestment by the private sector. It is currently much safer and much more attractive to invest in biobased polymers in Asia, South America, and even North America.
Market Segments
The packaging industry consumes most petro-based polymers. For biobased polymers, the same trend can be observed: the major part of this as rigid packaging (bottles, for example) and the rest as flexible packaging (films, for example). These uses cannot come as a surprise, since biobased PET is one of the biggest biobased polymers in terms of capacity and is mostly used for the production of bottles. On the other hand, the packaging industry has a considerable interest in biodegradability since packaging is only needed for short times but in big quantities, which contributes to the accumulation of waste. It should be understood that not all biobased polymers are biodegradable but some important ones are, e.g., PHA, PLA, and starch blends. This feature is also interesting for agriculture and horticulture applications (mulch films, for example). However, biobased polymers are also used in many different other market segments, including textiles, automotive and transports, consumer goods, building and construction, and electrical and electronics.
The order of importance of the market segments is expected to stay approximately the same between 2013 and 2018, according to European Bioplastics' projections. Rigid packaging is supposed to keep its first place by growing tremendously with an almost 7-fold growth in only 5 years. This is again due to the very fast development of biobased PET. However, the automotive sector is projected to gain faster importance than consumer goods and agriculture sectors. Automotive is actually the second most dynamic after rigid packaging and is followed by electronics, a sector which is still very small, followed by textiles, which is already well established on the global market.
Table 4 shows the worldwide shares of biobased polymers production in different market segments in 2013 and 2020 for nova-Institute's scope of biobased polymers (with thermosets and cellulose acetate). The same statement can be made regarding the packaging sector: packaging (rigid and flexible together) is the leader, with a clear advantage for rigid packaging, which is slated to grow strongly. On the other hand, automotive, building and construction, textiles and consumer goods are much bigger because biobased epoxies, polyurethanes, and cellulose acetate are used in these sectors. The smallest market segments are agriculture and functional. In agriculture, applications are mostly limited to biodegradable polymers (mulch films), which are clearly not a market leader in terms of capacities–but depending on future policy on plastic microparticles, mulch films and other biodegradable applications could grow strongly. Functional polymers are used for coatings, adhesives, paint, and ink applications, which require relatively small quantities of polymers.
Worldwide Shares of Biobased Polymers Production in Different Market Segments, 2013 and 2020