Abstract
For more than 10 years, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has led an effort with the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) and numerous other federal agencies and organizations to continuously improve the estimates of current and future feedstock supplies. The Billion-Ton reports have explored the potential of domestic biomass supply and demand in the continental United States. The report series is updated about every five years—in 2005, 2011, and now, 2016. The first report, entitled Biomass as Feedstock for a Bioenergy and Bioproducts Industry: The Technical Feasibility of a Billion-Ton Annual Supply (also known as the 2005 Billion-Ton Study, or BTS), was designed to provide an estimate of national biomass resource potential. It identified the potential for approximately one billion tons of biomass resources from agricultural land and forestland, and wastes, enough to displace 30% of 2005 U.S. petroleum consumption. BTS was a national-level assessment of current and potential biomass in 2005 with no cost analysis, but it was still recognized as a significant achievement in quantifying the growth potential of an evolving bioeconomy.
In 2011, DOE published the U.S. Billion-Ton Update: Biomass Supply for a Bioenergy and Bioproducts Industry (also known as the U.S. Billion-Ton Update, or 2011 BT2) in response to the need for information regarding potential feedstock prices and spatial distribution by aggregate feedstock type. The 2011 BT2 further improved the analyses and addressed spatial availability under economic and selective environmental restraints. For example, these specific restraints include leaving portions of agricultural and forestry residues to protect soil and maintain soil carbon and productivity, limited irrigation, use of conservation tillage and overall conservation management practices, not building forest roads, and keeping all of forest residues on steep slopes.
Now, the newest report, entitled the 2016 Billion-Ton Report: Advancing Domestic Resources for a Thriving Bioeconomy (also known as BT16), has the same goal of informing national bioenergy and biofuels research, development, and deployment strategies. BT16 builds on the past analyses and further expands and improves the estimates of potential biomass availability across the U.S. by county, from 2015–2040, and at costs to roadside and to the conversion facility. 1 Algal feedstocks, additional waste resources, and specific (not generic) energy crops were also included for the first time in BT16. 2
This report is sponsored and supported by the Bioenergy Technologies Office in the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy within the DOE. The lead, as in the past, is DOE's Oak Ridge National Laboratory. Nearly 70 co-authors and contributors came together to create BT16. The broad diversity of the disciplines and experiences of the numerous authors and contributors served to enhance the quality and inclusivity of the data analysis, and of the report conclusions.
BT16 is composed of two volumes: volume 1 is summarized in the following paper and is focused on biomass resource analysis (i.e., the potential economic availability of cellulosic and other feedstocks under specified cost scenarios). High-level results of volume 1 are generally consistent with the two previous Billion-Ton reports. In volume 1, supplies are quantified under specified assumptions and constraints. Volume 2, to be published subsequently, will evaluate the potential environmental sustainability effects of selected illustrative production scenarios described in volume 1.
High-level findings from volume 1 include the following: • Combined forestry resources, agricultural resources, wastes, and currently used resources potentially available at $60 or less in select years sum to a total of 1.2 billion tons under a lower-yield scenario and 1.5 billion under tons a high-yield scenario by 2040 • Resources potentially available in the near term include agricultural residues, wastes, and forest resources, totaling 343 million tons in 2017 in the lower-yield scenario • Energy crops shown are scarce in the near term, but they are the greatest source of potential biomass in the future, contributing 411 million tons and 736 million tons in 2040 under the lower-yield and high-yield scenarios, respectively.
The 2016 Billion-Ton Report is a national assessment of potential biomass scenarios, and is not a tactical planning and decision tool. This analysis provides county by county potential estimates of the feedstocks at a selected cost. More information, including the data assumptions and constraints, is available on the Bioenergy Knowledge Discovery Framework. 3
Footnotes
Disclaimer
Although the authors have made every attempt to use the best information and data available, to provide transparency in the analysis, and to have experts provide input and review, the 2016 Billion-Ton Report is an assessment of potential biomass. It alone is not sufficiently designed, developed, and validated to be a tactical planning and decision tool, and it should not be the sole source of information to support business decisions. This analysis provides county by county estimates of the feedstocks at a selected cost, yet users should use associated information on the Bioenergy Knowledge Discovery Framework (
The foundation of the agricultural sector analysis is the USDA Agricultural Projections to 2024. From the report, “projections cover agricultural commodities, agricultural trade, and aggregate indicators of the sector, such as farm income. The projections are based on specific assumptions about macroeconomic conditions, policy, weather, and international developments, with no domestic or external shocks to global agricultural markets.” The 2016 Billion-Ton Report agricultural simulations of energy crops and primary crop residues are introduced in alternative scenarios to the 2015 USDA Long Term Forecast. Only 2015–2024 Billion-Ton national level baseline scenario results of crop supply, price, and planted and harvested acres for the 8 major crops are considered to be consistent with the 2015 USDA Long Term Forecast. Additional years of 2025–2040 in the 2016 Billion-Ton Report baseline scenario and downscaled reporting to the regional and county level were generated through applications of separate data, analysis, and technical assumptions led by the Oak Ridge National Laboratory and do not represent nor imply U.S. Department of Agriculture or U.S. Depart of Energy quantitative forecasts of policy. The forest scenarios were adapted from U.S. Forest Service models and developed explicitly for this report and do not reflect, imply, or represent U.S. Forest Service policy or findings.
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