Market Implications of Miniaturized Satellites: High-Performance Microsats and the Oversupply in Launchers' Attributes Set the Conditions for Market Disruption

Abstract

Microsatellite performance is rapidly evolving. Key performance indicators (resolution, downlink rate, etc.) improve more than an order of magnitude per decade approximating the so-called Moore's law, a phenomenon identified in the semiconductor industry. This is empowering microsatellites to perform increasingly challenging missions beyond technology demonstrations. Despite the increasing demand for light launch opportunities, launch providers are ignoring this trend and putting all their efforts on heavy launchers. The clear oversupply in launch capacity makes microsatellites sacrifice key attributes such as orbit selection or launch date definition hindering their operability. This article aims at understanding how microsatellites and the advent of a dedicated microsatellite launcher could disrupt the satellite industry. To analyze this disrupting innovation, Clayton M. Christensen's perspective is applied. This framework helps in understanding the value a dedicated launcher would bring to the market, why incumbent players are ignoring this emerging segment, and how these legacy players can see their market disrupted from below.