Abstract
Abstract
In the past 50 years, Indian Space has seen many successful milestones, demonstrating excelling Indian technology and widespread utilization of space services in different areas of the national economy. Present capabilities and capacities of Indian Space are mainly in the unitary capabilities of the national space agency—this has enabled the nation to significantly achieve about 10–12 high-quality missions every year. Meeting future domestic needs and benefiting by access to a large global market of space will require a quantum jump in capabilities and capacities to be served. Another important development is the aspirational growth of the Indian economy and the people. With a gross domestic product (GDP) growth hovering around 7%–8% and a few trillion dollar economy, the nation has launched important developmental initiatives—Digital India, Make in India, Smart City, Swach Bharat, National Education Mission, and National Skill Mission programs. Thus, demands for diverse applications of space technology are inevitable, integrating across geographical, sectoral, and temporal domains of the country. In an earlier suo-moto study, we have outlined the future 10–20 years of policy perspectives for Indian Space development and also outlined the perspectives of how a national space ecosystem would emerge, evolving from the present national space agency into a public–private–academia triad. Looking ahead into such a national ecosystem, we now visualize critical developments that will bring impacting and paradigm shifts to holistic Indian Space through the triad—game changers. With about 100–150 possible missions in the coming 10–20 years—encompassing earth observation, satellite communications, positioning, space science, planetary missions, operational and advanced launch access missions, and the initiation of a human spaceflight program—the critical shifts would be not just technological advancements but also organizational restructuring from emerging newer organizational arrangements, industrialization and emergence of private space industry, deeper penetration of space services in Indian society, increasing global presence of Indian players, and a vibrant cooperative and collaboration at the international level. What will drive these game changers? Cost efficiency will be one key driver amply demonstrated in many sectors for global markets; this will impact global space markets and bring a leveling effect across global markets. Indian skills and human resources will be another driver, with Indian scientists, engineers, and managers playing a major role in the national and global space. Third will be Indian innovation—the ability to improvise and innovate with simple low-cost, but effective, solutions. These three drivers will bring a new economic model that balances systems, costs, and performance. The article provides a perspective of future Indian Space and outlines game changer impacts that will emerge for space activities in India. The article also discusses how, in an integrated manner, Indian Space can and should reach greater heights by key policy, strategy, and actions for the coming few decades.
Introduction
India is on a path of tremendous progress and growth. With an annual gross domestic product (GDP) of around 7.5% in the past few years, it is set to become the third largest economy in the world by 2030, powered largely by domestic demand and the transformation to a highly industrialized and technologically advanced economy. With such a level of economy, developmental activities in India demand a new paradigm and governance regimes will need considerable change—moving from the traditional allocation systems to determining equitable systems. What is required is game changers—a vastly different technology and management regime to arm itself for meeting the challenges of a trillion-level economy—bringing rapid development needs, bridging disparity and gaps, bringing equity, transparency, inclusivity, and citizen participation.
In such a scenario, Indian Space cannot remain in a different mold. In the past 50 years, Indian Space has seen many successful milestones, demonstrating excelling Indian technology and widespread utilization of space services in different areas of the national economy. Present capabilities and capacities of Indian Space are mainly in the unitary capabilities of the national space agency—this has enabled the nation to significantly achieve about 10–12 high-quality missions every year. Meeting future domestic needs and benefiting by access to a large global market of space will require a quantum jump in capabilities and capacities to be served.
Game changers are called for in Indian Space.
India's Space Program: Up to the Present
Indian space activities owe much to the vision given by Dr. Vikram Sarabhai—“…to be second to none in the application of advanced technologies to the real problems of man and society.” This extraordinary vision founded the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO)—first led by Prof Satish Dhawan way back in 1970s.
As of 2016, some of the major achievements of Indian Space include
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the following:
The present annual budget of 2016–17 FY for Indian Space through ISRO is INR 75.09 billion. Over the past 40 years, as against a cumulative budget of about INR 930 billion allocated, the actual spend/utilization has been INR 612 billion. India has realized 137 missions (80 spacecraft; 54 launch vehicle [LV]; 1 Space Capsule Recovery Experiment [SRE]; 1 Crew Module Atmospheric Re-Entry Experiment [CARE]; 1 reusable launch vehicle- technology demonstrator [RLV-TD]). India has presently successful missions in space exploration (Mars Orbiter Mission [MOM] and ASTROSAT), satellite navigation (Indian Regional Navigation Satellite System [IRNSS] and GPS Aided GEO Augmented Navigation [GAGAN]), satellite communication (13 satellites; ∼240 transponders), and Earth observation (EO) (11 low Earth orbit [LEO] +3 geosynchronous Earth orbit [GEO]) in orbit. Independent access to space is realized through a reliable and operational Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle (PSLV) and a proven operational indigenous Geosynchronous Satellite Launch Vehicle (GSLV), incorporating an indigenously developed cryogenic upper stage. World-class satellite capability that covers a wide variety of application satellites—Indian National Satellite System (INSAT), Indian Remote Sensing Satellite (IRS), and IRNSS for telecommunications, broadcasting, weather observations, remote sensing, and navigation and scientific spacecraft, including orbiters to the Moon and Mars and astronomy studies. Wide use of INSAT communications systems has resulted in the wide outreach of TV signals to almost the whole country and growth of large-scale direct-to-home and very small aperture terminal data communication business. IRS images have provided great thrust to the use of images and geographical information techniques into many governance and national building activities by way of inventory and maps of natural resources, critical support to disaster management activities, and environmental monitoring. Weather and ocean services have derived a great boost from the availability of INSAT and Oceansat images/data on a variety of ocean and atmospheric data. Forays in planetary missions have been made through Chandrayaan-1 and MOM-1 for advanced scientific studies. Global commercial operations of Indian space through 74 commercial/foreign satellites on its PSLV; sale of IRS images and value addition services; and, more lucratively, transponder lease business in India are estimated to have resulted in revenue earnings of about INR 100 billion over the past 20 years, although only a part of the capacity created was available to the commercial activity.
Looking Ahead
Looking ahead, ISRO direction is to undertake the missions that have been approved and planned in the 12th FY Plan and meet the national needs.
Some of the short-term challenges that Indian Space has to counter include
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the following:
A sustained and operational geosynchronous transfer orbit (GTO) space access system with a fully operational GSLV. Next-generation robust and sustained multilevel space access capacity. Satellite communications—bridging the large gap between quick availability of satellite communication transponders that have started stifling the service segment of DTH and large demand for social and commercial services. Advanced and next-generation, high-capacity satellite communications technology. EO—instant powering of a nationwide geographical information system (GIS) with a suite of advanced high spatial, temporal, and multispectral EO constellation capability. Development of an indigenous Indian global positioning system to achieve autonomy in access to global satellite positioning capability. Long-term planetary mission plan with continuity and dovetailing of missions to develop a knowledge base for planets, landing, habitation, and other human activities. Building a robust national private sector space industry that can design, manufacture, own, and operate space assets for India. Yet another challenge is also in future activities of the human spaceflight program not just technologically but also from the investment and sustenance point of view. Intensifying a two-way international cooperation—on one side, to embark on major exploratory programs through synergy of partnership and assimilating technology and experiences from other nations, and on the other side, for reaching/bringing Indian capability in the global markets of space. Indian Space has triggered many new services and products/applications—which reach out all over the country and deep into society at multiple levels—administratively and jurisdictionally. Newer institutional frameworks are called for downstream national-level applications and delivery systems, especially to address delivery systems for the large demand for societal applications related to space.
At the sidelines of the recently concluded Bengaluru Space Expo, 2016, ISRO is quoted by NDTV: “we are seeing a spurt in activities at the government level, demanding greater services using space resources, because they (departments) are realising the potential of geospatial technology, communication, crowd sourcing and earth observation capabilities,” admitting that there was capacity shortage in providing an array of public services and “… the country would have to double the number of satellites in the near future to give a reasonable level of service to the citizens.” ISRO goes on to say “… are in the process of increasing our launch frequency though we have a long way to go as the present supply chain is inadequate to meet our growing demand for more satellites and space-based services,” 2
In the present context and looking ahead, certain imperatives for considering and justifying game-changing actions are as follows:
In the next 20 years, to meet national (and global market) needs, India would have to triple its annual space mission accomplishments—from its present ∼8–10 mission level to almost 25–30 missions annually in the next 8–10 years (in an initial estimate done by National Institute of Advanced Studies [NIAS], we have determined that almost 200–300 space missions would be manifest in the next 10–15 years). The sheer tripling of annual space mission capability calls for game-changing actions that are far different from present space capability systems, calling for much elasticity and bandwidth in manufacturing. With an estimated possible investment of INR 2–2.5 trillion in the next 15–20 years for Indian Space, what structural changes would be required for near-tripling of the present level of annual spending (INR 75 billion in 2016–17 FY) both from public and private funding of space missions?
Future Space Ecosystem
In our view, the above challenges require a new and a larger national ecosystem for Indian Space that expands from the present single-agency (centric) system to a multilevel framework of a renewed national space agency, an investing private sector, and an innovative academia/research sector.
Industry System in Space
The Indian Space industry needs to be an important part of the larger ecosystem that can address space asset manufacturing, private ownership of space assets, national-level space services, and global market access.
In recent times, there has been emergence of a few start-ups in space activities. For example, TeamIndus is aiming for the Google Lunar Prize for a moon-shot mission by 2017. Small-satellite manufacturing start-ups have also been announced. How these start-ups will cope with resource-intensive and long-term commitments is yet to be seen. However, these beginnings only establish that there is intent (and maybe also capability) in the Indian private sector to take on operational space development.
Apart from these start-ups, there are many robust subcontract subsystem developers who support Indian Space, but they have yet to demonstrate their ability for total systems development and manufacturing as a private space enterprise. There is also the possibility that global private space players could get into tie-ups with the Indian private sector and bring formidable clout to privatization of space activities in India and also cost-effectiveness in global space operations.
Academia and Advanced Research and Development
Academia and institutional research in Space is extremely important. This element can address cutting-edge research and development (R&D) capability/capacity in space, science missions, and knowledge as users and in research, industrial research, and space education for R&D.
National Space Agency
The national space agency, ISRO, must take on a larger role of the mature partner in the new ecosystem and become a fulcrum and hub of space knowledge enterprise. It has a major role to play for industrial development of space and innovative methods. ISRO could easily take on a more challenging and responsible role in advanced technology development in satellites/communications/EO, complex development of human spaceflight technology operationalization, continued space missions for planetary and space science, critical international cooperation development for two-way benefit, and developing crucial application demonstrators for future. International cooperation must be the regime of ISRO to enable the national space ecosystem with best of external technology and inputs.
Space Policy and Regulation
India, in spite of not having a formal National Space Policy (NSP), has done well over the past 40–50 years. So, there are questions whether there is really a need for an NSP.
In the early stages of development, a formal policy was less important as it was more important to achieve successes, which has been done well by India through PSLV, GSLV, INSAT, IRS, Chandrayaan-1, MOMS, IRNSS, and so on. The experimental thrust of 1980s and the technology demonstration thrust in 1990s have sustained Indian space—this also means that whatever is achieved was more or less conceptualized in the 1980s/1990s. However, in late 1990s, subpolicies for Satcom and remote sensing were shaped—especially so when a commercial angle for Indian space (starting in space service sector) emerged.
Now in the 2015s time frame, an NSP becomes more relevant and important to steer the future and to provide direction to operational national needs, planetary programs, and possible human spaceflight activities with focus on international cooperation. The NSP is also important for the fact that India has to invest large resources, and in a democracy, a long-term policy direction for such investments becomes critical. So, in a way, till now, the original policy line has been adequate, but now the question—What next?—is arising and becoming important to look for the future. Thus, the NSP is critically important to provide a systemic design of the future elements of Indian Space on a timeline that the democratic framework of the country can endorse and support.
In the new order, a national regulation for space would be very much called for. Increased competition for orbital resources—for slots and frequencies particularly—would call for increased level of coordination and sophistication to ensure interference-free communications. India should also be participating actively in global fora, which lead regulatory developments, to protect Indian interests not only over India but also in the world.
Game Changers: Forward Action
Looking ahead into such a national ecosystem, we now visualize critical developments that will bring impacting and paradigm shifts to holistic Indian Space through the triad—game changers. We visualize the following scenarios to develop as a game-changing plan:
An NSP will be the foundation for future space activities—consolidating the achievements and envisioning the future 20–30 years of space activities and positioning of the New Space Ecosystem. Without an NSP, achieving annual and 5-year targets would not bring the game-changer environment for the future 20–30 years. The Indian Government has a tremendous opportunity to roll out the NSP with a process of wide-ranging consultations among space experts, user community, and political system. In 2014, NIAS
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had analyzed the policy scenario of Indian Space and had proposed a comprehensive Indian Space Policy—these can be further updated/modified and transformed into NSP through a process of studies/analysis, consultation, and policy definition tasks. (Goal Setting) National commitment to procure or buyback, from 2022 onward, all domestic communications satellites (aka INSAT), domestic EO satellites (aka IRS), and respective PSLV launch services from Indian space industry—a time-bound strategy of license buyback model of thrust for private sector manufacturing, ownership, and operations of Indian space assets is an important step.
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Thus, when INSATs, IRSs, and PSLVs will be only procured from the industry by the government (and any other commercial users), private sector space asset manufacturing will get a big boost.
Buyback guarantees by the government for its service/use of space assets, in fact, will help space industry to be risk covered or resilient. Industry can then boldly invest because government will buyback the space assets they manufacture for national use instead of those being built through the national space agencies (as is being done now). This method is widely adopted when guarantee of market is to be provided to establish and grow the fledgling industries in space. As of now, such buyback arrangements are absent and the private sector is always at a disadvantage against the national space agency for manufacturing space assets and making them available. Furthermore, a government buyback also helps consolidate the new space industry and makes it robust to compete in the global arena. Assured buyback by government of operational space assets—PSLV/INSAT/IRS, etc., will really found and develop a robust space industry in India and make it cope with market risks.
The other advantage of buyback is that while industries can build and operate operational space systems, the national space agency can shed its present traditional role of taking up this routine development of space assets and can concentrate on more advanced and futuristic space technology and application development; develop newer advanced missions of satellites/rockets; undertake complex planetary science activities, and, if required, prepare and develop technologies for human spaceflight, etc.
This goal fits well into the Make in India drive of the government. Thus, over the next 5–6 years, the action would be toward
○ Setting into motion the industrialization of space with focused private manufacture of space assets, ownership, and operations in India. This industrialization/privatization effort can be a major game changer and it would bring in substantial (initial risk covered) private investment into space asset manufacturing and operations for domestic market and leapfrogging in the global space industry for India.
○ Setting a target period of 5 years for the national space agency (ISRO) to transfer its operational manufacturing know-how of INSAT/IRS/PSLV to Indian Space industries—thereby, enabling the national space agency to concentrate on its advanced space technology and application development role in the New Space Ecosystem. This would be a game changer for the national space agency to morph away from operational production to more challenging technology development. In view of increased work content, this should be pursued without loss of any existing jobs, but with a substantial growth in higher-level jobs.
(Goal Setting) National drive for spurring space academia and research—a major step for expansion and qualitative developments in space technology and spread of research activities and a healthy competitive spirit among academic research organizations for space research. In due course, this would ensure substantial investment in human resources that would be essential for developing advanced programs and industrialization.
(Goal Setting) Future direction for the national space agency—chiseling the national space agency into a futuristic, challenging, and responsible role in advanced space technology development in satellites/communications/EO, new and complex development of human spaceflight technology operationalization, continued space missions for planetary and space science, hand-holding and transfer of know-how to the Indian Space industry, critical international cooperation development for two-way benefit, and developing crucial application demonstrators for future. This will be a game changer for the future role of ISRO and bring the high-technology focus that is required for next 20–30-year vision of Indian Space.
(Goal Setting) New governance structure for Indian Space under the NSP is essential to position a top-level national/government focus on space technology, space industry, space academia, and space applications. Interdepartmental framework, space industry forums, space academy committees, and larger user involvement are called for. Much debate/thought is required for defining this in the long-term perspective.
What will drive the above game changers?
The key driver will be national will and action to look far ahead into the 20–30-year domain for a pragmatic and visionary NSP (moving away from the present annual profiling through national 5-year plans). Under the visionary and enthusiastic drive of Prime Minister Modi, the long-term vision of NSP can get defined with specific goals set into traction. Indian Space must dovetail into Make In India and also a game-changing space privatization program.
Cost efficiency of the Indian private sector for space manufacturing will be another key driver—this cost-effectiveness has already been amply demonstrated in many other sectors of the Indian economy (IT, BT, etc.). Such an effort by the private sector will make Indian privatization effective and also bear on global space markets by bringing a cost advantage effect for space manufacturing in India. Organizational innovation involving integration across aeronautics, civil space, and relevant defense-related industry, supply chain rationalization, and lean management skills should be considered.
Indian skills and human resources will be another driver, with Indian scientists, engineers, and managers playing a major role not just for domestic markets but also a vanguard role in global space markets.
Finally, it will be Indian innovation that will make a revolutionary change in space manufacturing and market delivery. The ability to improvise and innovate with simple, functional, high-quality low-cost, but effective, solutions for space manufacturing, marketing, and applications will play an important role in the global space market.
Conclusions
India's ambitions for space activities and its emerging needs for the next few decades for services and infrastructure development present an unprecedented opportunity. Yet, there is a foreseeable way in which the government can pursue such diverse and growing space program needs—it has to outline a long-term NSP and involve a risk-sharing industry for space asset manufacturing/ownership, challenging the national space agency, ISRO, for advanced space technology development/planetary missions/human spaceflight missions and invigorating research and academia for front-ranking research in space.
Establishing a regulatory framework as well as regulating mechanisms for space activities under the NSP is an essential need.
In the past 40 years, great heights have been achieved in India in space endeavors through unfolding the utilitarian and pacific visions of space.
If India has to expand its horizon and enable a major space thrust for domestic and global markets, it has to position new rules of the game and transition the present space activities and bring a global foray of Indian Space in the next 2–3 decades—Game Changers!!!!
Footnotes
Acknowledgments
The authors wish to express gratitude to the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS) and Jain University. In particular, the authors express deep gratitude and thanks to Dr. K. Kasturirangan—a visionary of Indian Space and with whom the authors have had the privilege of engaging for many years. In fact, much of the article is based on intense discussions and engagements with Dr. K. Kasturirangan. The authors are also thankful to the reviewers of this article in New Space who gave very insightful suggestions.
Author Disclosure Statement
No competing financial interests exist.