Abstract
As I write this editorial, the new administration has only been in office a few weeks, and as is generally the case, NASA and the civil space program are not yet a topic of detailed discussion. Largely because NASA is not a Cabinet-level office, the appointment of a new administrator is often delayed for several months following the inauguration of a new president. After such a transition, past administrators have been nominated in March, April, or even May. So stay tuned—it may be a while before there is permanent new leadership at NASA.
On the New Space regulatory side, where the governing body is the Federal Aviation Administration within the Department of Transportation (DOT), a new DOT Secretary, Elaine Chao, has been confirmed, and the FAA administrator has a five-year term of office that lasts until 2018. The Associate Administrator for Commercial Space Transportation, George Nield, is a member of the Senior Executive Service and thus not a political appointee. So, there's reason to hope that the FAA process for approving commercial launches, including payloads for NASA, will continue smoothly. *
Nevertheless, there are indications of a serious internal administration discussion about New Space versus Old Space. Various news reports suggest there might be some sort of competition in the near future between differing approaches. One suggestion is a “humans to/orbiting the Moon by 2020” initiative. If such a concept were to be pursued, it might pit an entrepreneurial company or private business coalition against NASA. The major questions here of course are, first, would this really advance the cause of deep-space exploration or be considered a stunt? Those of us who remember Apollo 8 circumnavigating the Moon in 1968 might wonder about the value of repeating the mission.
The next question is where the funding for such an initiative would be appropriated. As a practical matter, it is difficult to believe that NASA's Space Launch System (SLS) and Orion crew vehicle would be sidelined. The Republican Senator from Alabama, Shelby, who is currently the Chair of Appropriations, is known a fierce protector of the Marshall Space Flight Center, where much of the SLS work is located. Other influential individuals and organizations also support the SLS, including the Commercial Spaceflight Federation. Is it conceivable that there might be some budget increase for NASA, or are the New Space proponents assuming much lower costs than NASA—much as has been demonstrated by the development of the Commercial Cargo Program?
Finally, and perhaps most importantly, what risk posture would be tolerated? NASA has not had astronauts venture into deep space since the Apollo era, and several New Space providers for Commercial Cargo (SpaceX and Orbital) have had very visible accidents. Both SpaceX and Boeing have moved the first flight of the Commercial Crew Program to 2018 as a result of development delays. The Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel has publicly stated their concerns about the SpaceX “load and go” procedure for fueling the Falcon 9 with astronauts on board, and the Government Accountability Office has made known their worries about the SpaceX Falcon 9 engine turbine blade cracking.
Given this background, will a new administration be willing to accept more risk than has been policy since Apollo? Recall that Mercury-Gemini-Apollo was established as a national security imperative—the equivalent of a wartime footing. Money was (almost) no object, and in order to save time, lower-level tests were often eliminated in favor of a full-up system test. That was a calculated risk that is not standard procedure in today's space program. Three astronauts died in the Apollo I fire, but the program returned to development almost immediately, unlike the years-long hiatus after the Challenger and Columbia Shuttle tragedies. Where will the nation and its leadership stand if there is to be a rapid program to return humans to cis-Lunar space? I will note that the return to flight after the Falcon 9 mishaps have been much shorter than for NASA failures—but of course those missions were for cargo, not human beings.
Let me finish with some notable New Space accomplishments and future proposals. We have portrayed four items on the cover. Starting in the lower left corner is the BEAM—Bigelow Expandable Activity Module—attached to the International Space Station. Bob Bigelow, a Las Vegas entrepreneur (in real estate), has successfully used designs that originally came from NASA and SpaceHab to create the first ever habitat that can be expanded with air pressure. This unit could serve as a model for future deep space or planetary surface living and working quarters. This module was attached with the full help and cooperation of NASA. This is quite an accomplishment for Bigelow Aerospace.
Next up on the cover is the remarkable image of the SpaceX Falcon 9 first stage being successfully and autonomously landed on a barge hundreds of miles east of Cape Canaveral out in the Atlantic. The first step toward reusability of a launch system has been reached. Just watching the online video of this remarkable engineering feat is extremely impressive. Clearly, the SpaceX staff have many reasons to be enthusiastic and optimistic.
The third image depicts a current design for a leading entrant in the Google Lunar X-Prize, Moon Express. If this privately funded effort is successful in meeting the requirements and claims the $20m prize, such an achievement would set the stage for entrepreneurs to provide robotic access for lunar exploration and science at a fraction of the previous cost. Small countries and even individuals could plan on sending payloads to the Moon.
Finally, we included a very forward-looking New Space–type concept by Lockheed Martin called Mars Base Camp. The notion depicted here claims to be able to get a crew of astronauts to Mars by 2028, in orbit around the Red Planet. While no costs were given, the information accompanying the LMCO concept pushes the schedule and advances thinking about how near the exploration of Mars may be.
There is quite a future for space exploration. I hope that the nation's best and brightest join the journey.