Lost in Space: A Framework Analysis on the Space Sector in Iceland

Abstract

This article charts the framework around the space Sector in Iceland, pursues what is being done in the way of space exploration, and traces the history and connection Iceland has in relation to past space exploration, from being training grounds for the first NASA astronauts in the 1960s to serving as a Mars Analog in the 21st century. It also facilitates Iceland’s potential and the arguments that are made for Iceland to be a full participant in the European Space Agency (ESA) and traces the course of its application to do so. Finally, three potential future scenarios are assessed: (1) the status quo, i.e., continued lack of governmental engagement and nonmembership of Iceland of the ESA; (2) a full membership of the ESA, enhancing current activities, and adding some new ones, without a specific emphasis on it on behalf of the government; and (3) an ambitious space program led and supported by the government, focusing on making space research and exploration a priority within the Icelandic scientific community, thus building on Iceland’s strengths in that respect.

INTRODUCTION

This article will focus on what is being done in Iceland in the way of the space sector. We will go through the history and connection Iceland has in relation to past space exploration, from being training grounds for the first NASA astronauts in the 1960s to serving as a Mars Analog in the 21st century together with other present activities related to space science, space exploration, and space-related activities in general, with the purpose of analyzing the framework surrounding the sector. Finally, three potential future framework scenarios are assessed: (1) the status quo; (2) enhancing current activities and adding some new ones, without a specific emphasis on it on behalf of the government aside from Iceland joining the European Space Agency (ESA); and (3) an ambitious space program led and supported by the government, focusing on making space science and exploration a priority within the Icelandic scientific community, thus building on Iceland’s strengths in that respect.

The potential future benefits of space exploration could be enormous. Not only in terms of technological advances and the advancement of human knowledge, science, and understanding of nature and the universe but also financially. Financial analysts at Morgan Stanley estimate that the roughly $350-billion global space industry could surge to over $1 trillion by 2040.¹ Thus, just a tiny fraction of the economic benefits of that industry could be quite significant for a relatively small economy such as the Icelandic one.

Morgan Stanley splits the economic actors in space into 10 categories or fields: (1) satellite launches: the actors focus on technology and infrastructure to send satellites to near space and low Earth orbit; (2) satellite internet, with a focus on improved connectivity through low-Earth-orbit-based technology; (3) deep space exploration: those involved in that, perhaps most prestigious, space-bound activity, develop high-level missions to transport humans and cargo to the moon, Mars, and beyond; (4) lunar landing: these are missions to the moon or building products for such missions; (5) Earth observation: these actors are involved in building technology to monitor weather, climate, the oceans, etc.; (6) asteroid mining: a potentially very financially rewarding field is developing technologies to extract water, rare minerals, and metals from near-Earth asteroids; (7) space debris: these actors track and analyze human-made objects orbiting Earth; (8) space tourism, where access to space for private citizens is being developed; (9) space research: these are the actors dedicated to research, exploration, and education about space and space technology; and (10) manufacturing: this is the design and development of spacecraft and other space-faring technology.¹ In the chapter on the current framework, we pursue which of the aforementioned fields Iceland and Iceland-based actors are already involved in and which could hold potential for the future.

NATIONAL SPACE PROGRAMS AND AGENCIES

The origins of space agencies can be traced back to the Cold War era when the launch of the Soviet satellite Sputnik I in 1957 and America’s Explorer I in 1958 sparked the Space Race. These early technological accomplishments emphasized the link between national identity and technology, leading to the emergence of national space agencies. These agencies were tasked with navigating the complexities of space activities and integrating military and national security efforts with civilian purposes.² Not only individual countries but also country groups have established their own space agencies to collaborate and pool resources for space exploration and research, such as the Asia Pacific Space Cooperation Organization, the European Union Agency for the Space Program (EUSPA), the ESA, and the Latin American and Caribbean Space Agency.

As Europe moves toward a more resilient, green, and digital future, the European Union (EU) recognizes the pivotal role of space in driving growth across various sectors. This is exemplified by the Horizon Space, Digital, and Manufacturing cluster, which emphasizes the importance of space as a catalyst for development in other industries. By harnessing the potential of space technologies, the EU aims to strengthen its strategic interests, promote European values, and ensure the availability of secure and innovative solutions to meet the challenges of the future.³

Several European countries, including ones that are still emerging in their space sector, recognize the long-term economic and scientific advantages of establishing a space agency. Despite their relatively smaller size or limited resources initially, these countries understand the value of engaging in space activities. Notably, countries such as Luxembourg and Norway, which may not possess extensive financial resources, have demonstrated commendable progress in their space endeavors. They serve as examples of nations that have effectively embraced the opportunities presented by participating in space affairs.

Luxembourg

Although a small country, Luxembourg holds a big vision when it comes to space. The Luxembourg Space Agency (LSA)’s official website states that Luxembourg is the first European country and the second country worldwide after the United States to offer a legal framework that secures property rights for space resources. The mission of the LSA is to: (1) develop the Luxembourg space ecosystem and create synergies with businesses and organizations outside the space sector; (2) encourage the development of key skills and expertise, help to create jobs, and boost the contribution of the space sector to Luxembourg’s economy; (3) assist the emergence of human resources at a national level and the appeal of space and its potential, especially among young people; and (4) promote Luxembourg and its space sector internationally.⁴ The LSA strongly addresses the fact that access to space resources will become a global issue in the future. Luxembourg is committed to ensuring that space resources discovered within its jurisdiction are utilized in a manner that promotes peace, sustainability, and adherence to international law, with the ultimate goal of benefiting humanity.

In 2005, Luxembourg joined the ESA. In addition, Luxembourg has partnered with other countries such as China, Japan, the United Arab Emirates, Russia, Belgium, Poland, the Czech Republic, and Portugal to harmonize global rules for the peaceful exploration and utilization of space resources. Luxembourg also established the European Space Resources Innovation Center (ESRIC) in August 2020, in collaboration with the LSA and the Luxembourg Institute of Science and Technology. ESRIC is a national innovation center dedicated to the research, development, and sustainable utilization of space resources for human and robotic exploration, as well as the future in-space economy.⁴ On October 13, 2020, Luxembourg’s Minister of Economy, Franz Fayot, signed the Artemis Accords on behalf of the Grand Duchy, joining other countries in establishing rules for the peaceful and responsible exploration of the Moon and Mars. The Accords align with Luxembourg’s strategy to strengthen its space sector and its efforts to become a leading player in the field.⁵ Luxembourg recently released its new space policy, which centers around sustainability and aims to consolidate and expand its space sector as a driver of economic diversification. The strategy emphasizes the integration of space activities with terrestrial sectors, the development of new skills and opportunities, and the promotion of responsible and sustainable use of space resources. It also highlights the importance of ethical considerations and the positive impact of the space sector on society.⁶

Norway

Norway is a small country in population size but plays an important role as a partner with space-faring nations. The official website of the Norwegian Space Agency (NOSA) describes NOSA as a government agency under the Ministry of Trade, Industry, and Fisheries. NOSA was established in 1987 when Norway became a member of the ESA. NOSA was established as a benefit to the Norwegian industry, research, public-sector bodies, and Norwegian interest in general. Norway has also contributed to the Spacelab 1 and 2 missions, the ESA’s Cluster mission, the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) mission with the ESA and NASA, and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization alliance with the United States. The four main focus areas of NOSA are the Norwegian space industry, Earth observation between Norway and Earth, satellite communications in Norwegian SATCOM, and satellite navigation in the North.⁷ The climate, geographical location in the Scandinavian region, and vast oceanic area of Norway make it an ideal environment for space affairs and research. In addition, Norway is becoming increasingly relevant because of its space industry, knowledge, and advantages regarding satellite launch, downlink, and operations in any polar orbit.⁸

ICELAND AND SPACE

The unique geographical feature of Iceland as a volcanic island in the North Atlantic serves as the foundation for space research endeavors within the country. Notably, Iceland’s significance in the field is exemplified by the fact that in 1965 and 1967, a total of 32 Apollo astronauts chose Iceland as their training ground in preparation for their groundbreaking lunar missions. That was because central Iceland apparently “looked like the moon,” and consequently, astronauts still visit Iceland to train for their missions.⁹ Also, volcanic particularities found in Iceland, in particular the interplay between volcanic activity and glaciers, make it useful as a reference for researchers studying Martian terrains. So, the Icelandic terrain holds significant comparisons to the Moon and Mars, making it a useful site for various aspects of preparations for missions to those two heavenly bodies.¹⁰

The Icelandic Government, the ESA, and the Artemis Program

In the past decade, the Icelandic scientific community has become more involved in space and following that development, a call was made in the Icelandic Parliament, Alþingi, for Iceland to join the ESA not least to get access to funds and networks potentially provided by the Agency and the EU.¹¹

Iceland has no space program, nor does its government have a policy on space. According to interviews conducted for this article, although some interest has been demonstrated, there is a lack of both knowledge and resources for space-related issues within the Icelandic government.^12–15 The best demonstration of this would be the trajectory of Iceland’s application for membership of the ESA.

In 2016, a call for membership of the ESA was passed as a bill in the Icelandic parliament, Alþingi.¹¹ Since then, it has been under review in two ministries, first the Ministry for Foreign Affairs (MFA) and then the Ministry of Education, Science, and Culture (MESC). According to a reply by the Minister of Universities, Industry, and Innovation to a query in parliament in 2023, almost nothing has happened since, and it is argued that an assessment of the benefits of Iceland’s membership has to be conducted before taking further steps toward collaboration with the ESA.¹⁶ After the passing of the bill in 2016, the MFA conversed with representatives from the ESA on potential Icelandic membership, and according to reports, the conversations were positive. The major event in this trajectory was a meeting in the MFA premises on February 14, 2019. Daniel Leeb, director of the Iceland Space Agency (ISA), a private initiative, says they were part of the meeting “where there was an envoy from the director general’s office at the European Space Agency saying ‘you should really join the European Space Agency’ and it seemed at that meeting that things were going to crystallize, the heads of the every single department agency of Iceland that are the stakeholders, that's who was at that meeting and it was not just a couple hours it was like a full day”.¹³ However, following that meeting, the decision was made to hand the issue over to the MESC, which has, accordingly, not as of yet taken the matter further.¹⁷

At the 2019 meeting, several Icelandic actors introduced their interests and connections to space-related issues. Joined with delegates from the ESA, there were representatives from the University of Iceland (UI), Reykjavík University (RU), The Meteorological Office, The Icelandic Transport Authority, The Icelandic Aviation Authority, The Icelandic Center for Research, The Post and Telecom Administration, The National Land Survey, and The Marine and Freshwater Institute together with a few other interested parties. The directors of the ISA and Space Iceland, Daniel Leeb and Thor Fanndal, were also present.¹⁸

Between May and June 2021, Iceland was formally offered to become a member of the Artemis Accords with NASA. The offer involved getting the Icelandic government to officially get space affairs onto an agenda. The meeting was between John Morris and his team of four to five people, RANNÍS (which was under the Icelandic MESC, led by Lilja Alfreðsdóttir) and their team of three to four people, Space Iceland, the Icelandic Space Agency, and the U.S. Embassy. During this time, the U.S. Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken had also arrived in Iceland. The meeting took place at RANNÍS. However, after the meeting adjourned, the Artemis offer was ignored by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Iceland. Initially, there was silence from the Icelandic government in which they did not follow up with the United States and NASA and, until recently, ignored all efforts of contact.¹⁸

According to Daniel Leeb, high-ranking officials of the U.S. State Department have also been in touch with Icelandic authorities on the subject of Iceland signing the Artemis Accord, and thus taking part in the Artemis program, which is already underway and NASA describes as “the first step in the next era of human exploration”.¹⁹ Together with commercial and international partners, NASA will establish a sustainable presence on the Moon to prepare for missions to Mars.¹⁹ According to Leeb, signing on to the accords could secure contracts for Icelandic actors within the framework of the program, and it would not entail any financial contribution from Iceland. However, very much to the surprise of U.S. authorities, Icelandic authorities have not responded to this request, and Leeb believes that this is a demonstration of how Iceland does not take space-related issues seriously.¹³ “It’s almost as if people think it’s funny. They don’t have the answer, so they don’t answer.”¹³ In a 2023 query to the Icelandic Ministry of Higher Education, Science, and Innovation, it was stated by the Ministry that preparations have begun for a possible participation in the Artemis Program.¹⁶

Numerous arguments have been made for Iceland’s full participation in the ESA, not least in the light of reports by Danish and Norwegian authorities estimating the economic impact of participation.²⁰

Investing in ESA programs yields a substantial effect on the European economy. According to the ESA’s latest report on the space economy, each euro invested can generate up to €4 within the overall economy. In addition, by investing in ESA programs, governments receive noteworthy returns in the form of governmental revenues. Up to 90% of the funding allocated to ESA programs is reimbursed to governments through income tax, taxes on products, and social security contributions.²⁰ Iceland’s extreme environment is already a source of operations for international actors in space exploration and research, and it is argued that for Iceland to fully benefit it is necessary to take part in an agency with the power to pull off large-scale space operations. In the aforementioned meeting, the ESA representatives highlighted the options for Iceland, which could include a cooperation agreement, an Association-level status, or a full membership.¹⁸ Regardless, for any of these things, there would have to be an official request from the Icelandic authorities, something that has not materialized as of yet.

The ESA was founded in 1975 to “push the frontiers of science and technology and promote economic growth in Europe”.²¹ As of the writing of this article, it had 22 member states, thereof all the Nordic countries, except for Iceland. It also has associated states, among them being Canada. Members of comparable size to Iceland would be Estonia, although slightly more populous, with a similar-sized economy, and Luxemburg with a similar population size. Current non-EU-member states in the ESA are the United Kingdom (UK), Norway, and Switzerland. Aside from its headquarters in Paris, the ESA runs seven centers in various member states; plus liaison offices in Belgium, Russia, and the United States; and a launch base in French Guyana.²²

In 2023, the ESA had a total budget of EUR 7.08 billion, the largest shares going to Earth observation (25%), navigation (16%), space transportation (12.6%), and human spaceflight, microgravity, and exploration (12.5%).²³ The ESA’s space science programs are funded by a financial contribution from the Agency’s member states, calculated in accordance with each country’s gross national product (GNP). In addition, the ESA conducts several optional programs in which each member state decides on participation in and the amount they wish to contribute. As a rule of thumb, the agency invests roughly the same amount in the member states as they contribute.²² This is also being assured by the ESA’s Industrial Policy, which emphasizes geographical distribution. According to the ESA’s Geographical Return Policy, contracts should be awarded to member states based on their financial contributions, with a target ratio known as the industrial return coefficient. This ensures that each country’s share of contracts aligns closely with its financial input to the ESA.

Thor Fanndal, referring to the call of the Icelandic parliament for Iceland to join the ESA, says that it seems that the government could not care less what the parliament wants and that everything it does reeks of lack of both enthusiasm and professionalism. He thinks it may have its roots in the right-wing ideology of the current government, that public agencies and services are inherently bad and thus doing nothing is the right thing to do.¹² Hjörtur Smárason believes that there is some sort of misunderstanding going on within the government, that in order to have a space program, countries need to have “a space shuttle”. He believes that the Icelandic government needs to realize that this is not the case in today’s world.¹⁴

According to Ari Kristinn Jónsson, the former rector of RU (and a former NASA researcher), the offer to join Artemis still stands.¹⁵ He believes it is not owing to lack of interest per se that Iceland has not joined the ESA or taken up the offer of joining Artemis but rather owing to the lack of knowledge in the field within the small Icelandic administration, plus the fact that so many other important issues take up all the time of government officials, and thus, space-related issues simply do not make it to the agenda.

Aside from the aforementioned opinions, tracing the trajectory of the call for Iceland to join the ESA through government ministries, it is safe to say that those issues could have been handled more efficiently by the Icelandic government and that it does not seem to be a priority for it to facilitate space-related issues.

EU Space Program

In April 2021, the European Parliament and the Council of the EU passed a regulation founding the EUSPA on the foundation of the previous European Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) Agency.²⁴ Its mission is “to be the user-oriented operational Agency of the EU Space Program, contributing to sustainable growth, security and safety of the European Union” and its goal, among others, is to “provide long-term, state-of-the-art safe and secure Galileo and EGNOS positioning, navigation and timing services and cost-effective satellite communications services for GOVSATCOM, while ensuring service continuity and robustness”.²⁵ In the regulation, it is left open to European Economic Area (EEA) countries outside the EU (Iceland together with Norway and Liechtenstein) to join EUSPA programs, which Iceland has done already.²⁶ The country has joined EGNOS (the European Geostationary Navigation Overlay Service),²⁷ Copernicus, Galileo, and GOVSATCOM.

Academia

Three universities are actively involved in space-related issues in Iceland: The UI, RU, and the Bifröst University (BU). The UI is involved in space-related research in the fields of geology, environmental sciences, biology, remote sensing, and astrology; RU is mostly involved in technology, management, and artificial intelligence; and BU is mainly focusing on aspects relating to law, social science, and business. Their connections are mostly on an individual or case-by-case basis, rather than through an active space strategy. However, Icelandic academics have for decades been involved in fields pertaining to space, mostly in cooperation with colleagues from abroad, and much of it has to do with Iceland’s potential as a Lunar or Mars Analog, as discussed later. Nevertheless, these activities are not the main focus of this article.

In recent years, bilateral cooperation with the UK has significantly benefited the number of academic opportunities for Icelandic researchers, scholars, and students interested in space-related affairs. These strengthened cooperation efforts took place subsequently after the UK voted to leave the EU and eventually the European Economic Area, commonly known as Brexit. In May 2020, during the withdrawal transition period, both countries signed the Joint Vision for 2030: Enhancing Cooperation between Iceland and the United Kingdom. This arrangement includes a section for Research and Innovation, while also covering a wide range of fields that can benefit the Icelandic space sector activities, such as trade and investment, people-to-people links, or climate change and the Arctic, among others.²⁸

The agreement helped establish the basis for the memorandum of understanding (MoU) between the UK and Iceland on Cooperation on Education, Research and Innovation, and Space, signed in July 2021.²⁹ The agreement was subscribed to after the UK signed another one of a similar nature with the Faroese Government in order to grant space flight operability over their aerial and maritime territories to UK companies launching from Scotland. In return, the UK enhanced the cooperation on research and academia through a recent United Kingdom Space Agency (UKSA) student grant fund that offers meaningful opportunities to interested Icelandic students.³⁰

In 2022, Space Iceland and Bifröst University conceived a partnership to promote the benefits of space for Icelandic society. The collaboration, known as Space Bifröst, aims to strengthen Iceland’s participation in space and develop a national space plan. The partnership will involve the development of research projects and courses in social sciences, business, and law. One of the main goals of Space Bifröst is to identify challenges in the emerging space sector, propose policy reforms, and attract international cooperation and projects to Iceland. The collaboration between Space Iceland and Bifröst University seeks to bridge gaps in formal space policy and legal framework and advance Iceland’s utilization of space technology. Several professors and experts from Bifröst University will join the director of Space Iceland, Thor Fanndal, to create Space Bifröst. The partnership aims to leverage space technology for various societal needs, such as weather forecasting, telecommunications, transportation, security, defense, energy efficiency, and addressing climate change. The collaboration aligns with Bifröst University’s focus on technology-related innovation and entrepreneurial training. The ultimate objective is to foster the development of the domestic space sector, update existing regulations, and enhance Iceland’s space knowledge capacity, while attracting both international and domestic participation.³¹

There is also ongoing cooperation between the ISA and the UI. In May 2023, the UI (Háskóli Íslands) and ISA director Daniel Leeb signed a MoU, declaring their intent to cooperate in the field of space research. As part of the declaration of intent, one of the key objectives is to assess the possibility of establishing a dedicated space research institute in Iceland. The partnership also seeks to create opportunities for graduate students and postdoctoral fellows, facilitate student and staff exchanges with foreign research institutes, and foster education initiatives. In June of 2023, ISA collaborated with Háskoli Íslands on the Mars Sample Return project. Icelandic regolith samples collected during their visit will be stored at the UI for further analysis.³²

Private Actors

In Iceland, owing to the absence of the government, private or nonstate actors have been at the forefront of finding opportunities in space, both the academic community and private organizations. Aside from the universities, two private organizations are most prominent, Space Iceland and ISA.

Space Iceland was originally an initiative of Thor Fanndal, an Icelandic journalist and the current executive director of the Icelandic section of Transparency International. According to its website, the mission of Space Iceland is to link stakeholders and foster the creation of a national space plan in Iceland. The organization maps Iceland’s activities and potentials and is attempting to build a network of enthusiasts, industry, science, and policymakers. Space Iceland claims to be “the voice of Iceland’s space aspirations, push debate, further development, advance policies, and service the industry”.³³ Space Iceland was founded in 2019 and has participated in a variety of space-related activities, among other things helping to facilitate a suborbital launch in Langanes, northeast Iceland, in August 2020;¹² the European initiative CHILL-ICE;³⁴ and the Galileo and Copernicus Masters competitions in 2021.³⁵

ISA is a private organization with the mission to “facilitate research, testing, training, and operational logistics between Iceland, foreign organizations, academia, researchers, and domestic enterprise as they relate to and are interested in the fields of space/earth science, exploration, technology, and business in and around the country of Iceland and with ISA teams globally”.³⁶ It is run by Daniel Leeb, a graphic designer from New York but a current resident of Iceland. It has, among other things, facilitated missions in cooperation with NASA staff to test space suits in Mars analog environments in Grímsvötn atop the Vatnajökull glacier in southeast Iceland.³⁶

Judging from the interviews with the protagonists of Space Iceland and ISA, there is little love lost between these two “competitors”, a fact that seems to be less than helpful for the space sector in Iceland.

Tourist sector

In the past decades, the tourist industry in Iceland has become one of the pillars of the Icelandic economy. Before the COVID-19 global pandemic, the sector represented 35% of total export revenue and 67% of service exports and employed 15.9% of the workforce in Iceland (∼28,813 people).³⁷ That suddenly changed after the pandemic, which particularly affected this sector. Nevertheless, it has recovered quite well, and the country has attracted millions of summer tourists after the traveling restrictions were lifted. For that, stakeholders have used different strategies and specific Icelandic characteristics to attract tourists, including its space analog capabilities.

Outer space enthusiasts from everywhere interested in space tourism have been targeted by tourist companies in Iceland, offering a simulated and more accessible option within different areas of the Icelandic natural environment. In 2022, the Icelandic Tourist Board launched 35,000 km away a billboard with the message “Iceland. Better than space” on a global balloon to attract interested tourists’ attention.³⁸ Also, some months later, Visit Iceland published a campaign named “Mission: Iceland” that included well-designed publicity and a commercial about the viability of a space terrestrial simulated experience.^39,40

However, it is relevant to point out that some of these practices are not always highly supported because of their risks and lack of engagement support to the space sector industry. For instance, the Mars Desert Research Station, an analog training center located close to Hanksville, United States, has had severe complaints about how space enthusiasts have seriously affected the correct operability of the center.⁴¹

Otherwise, there is an exploration museum in Húsavík, northeast Iceland, highlighting the visits of the Apollo astronauts in the 1960s. Meanwhile, the Finnish start-up Space Nation planned astronaut training for tourists in Iceland,⁴² and the School of Astronaut Leadership Training (S.A.L.T.) has plans for the same.⁴³ However, those plans were put on hold because of the COVID-19 pandemic and other issues.¹⁴

Iceland as Analog and Astronaut Training Site

On May 25, 1961, John F. Kennedy, President of the United States, pronounced before the U.S. Congress, “I believe that this nation should commit itself to achieving the goal, before this decade is out, of landing a man on the moon and returning him safely to the Earth.” (The moon Decision | National Air and Space Museum⁴⁴). This was the official start of the race to the moon, which the Americans intended to win. Their lunar program was named Apollo and astronauts were recruited. At that time, Americans had spent a total of 15 min in space. Thus, rough, tough, and ready individuals were needed to fly to the moon. For this reason, the Apollo astronauts were not scientists. They were mostly fighter pilots. They were, however, supposed to engage in scientific missions, and they had to be trained for that. Allegedly, learning in classrooms to act as scientists was not very engaging for the men with the right stuff to fly to the moon. Thus, the idea to bring them to a site reminiscent of the Lunar landscape they were to work in was born, and they were flown to (among other places) Iceland.⁹ Nine of the 12 Apollo astronauts who set foot on the moon trained in Iceland; Neil Armstrong, the first man on the moon, included.^45,46 Today, there is a monument outside the Exploration Museum in Húsavík, Iceland, commemorating Iceland’s contribution to the Space Race.⁹

Mars Analog is the term used for terrain here on Earth that holds similar characteristics as the Martian terrain. Together with having enough similarities to the moon for serving as the geological training ground for the Apollo astronauts, it appears that Iceland is particularly well suited to serve as a Mars Analog, owing to its volcanic activity, cold deserts, and interplay with glacial formation and melting.^47–52 Of particular interest to some is how life could thrive under such extreme conditions and thus serve as an indicator for life on Mars. Gone are the days when an invasion of Martians in spaceships was considered a possibility, (like in H.G. Wells' “War of the Worlds”), but not those of being able to imagine some sort of microbial life forms on the Red Planet, in particular because water—a rich source of life on Planet Earth—is quite abundant there.⁵³

This characteristic of Iceland has also been a reason for testing space suits under extreme conditions, such as the one made by the NASA industrial designer Michael Lye.^36,54 NASA also brought their 2020 Mars Rover and Helicopter to Iceland to test their performance in a Mars-like environment. A total of three weeks were used to test the equipment in the Lambahraun lava field under the glacier Langjökull.⁵⁵ Iceland also has terrain that can serve as a testing ground for human Mars habitats, in particular lava caves or lava tubes, but it is believed that both Mars and the moon have such caves or underground tubes as well. In fact, the largest lava tubes on Earth are in Iceland, and it is believed that with 38% gravity, the lava tubes on Mars could be enormous.¹⁴ The lava tubes could thus provide a necessary shelter, both from radiation and falling meteorites, and, according to Daniel Leeb, director of ISA, developers are already looking into testing how habitats can be 3D printed with local material in such caves in Iceland. If successful, that could also be used for the future testing of such habitats.¹³

Designing and testing inflatable Lunar and Martian habitats is one of the main activities of EuroMoonMars, an ESA-funded European initiative, which has been active in Iceland recently under the auspices of CHILL-ICE. “The CHILL-ICE mission ‘Construction of a Habitat Inside a Lunar-analogue Lava tube-Iceland Euromoonmars’ indeed happened in the summer of 2021 in which all objectives were met,” says Pouwels. “We were working with over 16 nations to make this prototype mission happen and from Iceland, we were working with Space Iceland, Reykjavik University, 4thPlanet, and some local companies.”⁵⁶

When it comes to energy on Mars, solar is a potential. However, the sunlight is significantly weaker than on Earth and that must be taken into account. Another potential source of energy is geothermal. Iceland has been at the forefront of using geothermal energy for almost a century, and as of now, around 30% of the country’s electricity production comes from geothermal energy⁵⁷ In this field, Iceland is an excellent testing ground for Martian energy production. Also, when it comes to food production in a cold climate, 43% of the vegetables consumed in the subarctic country are locally produced in geothermally heated greenhouses.⁵⁸ This too could be helpful in preparation for missions to Mars according to Smárason.¹⁴

Suborbital Launches

Although suborbital launches in Iceland are rather unusual and few, the starting of these activities dates back to the 1960s with two launches carried out by the Center National d’Etudes Spatitales. The first suborbital rocket launch was in 1964 and took place in the surrounding areas of Vík í Mýrdal, and the second one was in Skógar the following year. Both were used for scientific and exploratory purposes over the Van Allan Radiation Belt.⁵⁹ Despite being far from the equator, Iceland’s latitude has its benefits when it comes to launches, particularly for Sun-Synchronous Orbit and Polar Orbit.

More recently, the Scottish company Skyrora has been operating in the northeast of the country owing to two planned suborbital launches. In 2020, the company successfully launched from the Langanes Peninsula, its two-stage Skylark Micro experimental rocket, which reached 26.86 km in altitude.^60,61 The rocket exercise was part of an ambitious plan to deliver its bigger launch vehicles in orbit, the Skylark-L and the Skyrora XL. Despite these launches having the potential to give Iceland a recognized position for launching activities in Europe, according to Skyrora, the Icelandic Authorities kept delaying the permits for the launch of the Skylark-L.^62,63 This rocket was finally launched in 2023, but it did not last long owing to technical difficulties, falling to the sea not too far from its launching site.⁶⁴

According to Thor Fanndal, director of Space Iceland, Iceland has a relatively developed legal framework for air traffic and reliable weather data, air traffic in the northern part of Iceland is relatively sparse, and launching from Iceland does not require transnational cooperation, that is, Iceland’s airspace is relatively large, and other countries do not have to be included in decisions on launches.¹² Daniel Leeb has a different opinion. He believes Iceland’s geographical position and the weather will always be a challenge when it comes to Iceland as a launch site and that other places are much better suited for that purpose.¹³ However, it is already happening and the factors mentioned above may outweigh the weather and geography for minor, suborbital launches.

Legal Framework

Iceland does not have a comprehensive domestic legal framework for outer space activities. The country is a party to two United Nations treaties in the field and has signed one but has yet to ratify. The treaties Iceland is a party to are the 1967 United Nations Treaty on Principles Governing the Activities of States in the Exploration and Use of Outer Space, including the Moon and Other Celestial Bodies (the “Outer Space Treaty”), which sets forth the basic principles of international space law, and the 1969 Agreement on the Rescue of Astronauts, the Return of Astronauts, and the Return of Objects Launched into Outer Space. The treaty Iceland has signed but not ratified is the 1972 Convention on the International Liability for Damage Caused by Space Objects. Iceland has not been active in the development of space law in international forums compared with Iceland’s involvement in the development of the law of the sea for instance.

In Act No. 80/2022 on Aviation, there are a few general provisions concerning space activities: registration of space objects, access to Icelandic airspace, and licenses concerning launches of space objects from Icelandic territory. One regulation addresses satellites, that is, Regulation No. 305/2019 on the filing of satellite frequencies. The Regulation includes requirements for those who apply for filing, the form and content of applications, the procedure for processing applications, coordination of spectrum use, and the use of allocated frequencies. In addition, Iceland and the UK have concluded a MoU on cooperation on education, research and innovation, and space.

It is worth noting that the legal framework for outer space activities is an evolving field. Iceland may need to consider developing more specific domestic legislation to ensure a consistent and comprehensive legal framework for outer space activities. There is a need for much more detailed domestic legislation in Iceland specifically addressing space-related activities, such as launching or operating satellites or other space-based projects. However, it must be noted that existing laws and regulations regarding commercial and scientific activities may be applied to space-related endeavors to some extent, as appropriate.

THE CURRENT FRAMEWORK

As has been demonstrated previously, the current framework around space-related activities in Iceland is not explicit; although from what has been done and is being done, a policy can be derived, however unintentional and scattered. When looking at the 10 categories of space activities put forth by Morgan Stanley and presented in the introduction of this article, we recognize five in Iceland as of 2023: satellite launches, deep space exploration, earth observation, space analog tourism, and space research. Aside from the first one, which has only concluded one launch, and Earth observation, the other three are deeply connected with the Mars/Moon Analog position of Iceland.

The governmental agencies that took part in the meeting with ESA representatives in February 2019 are the ones that can be deemed to be mostly involved in space-related activities, albeit to a varying degree of activity. Some are recipients of information gathered in near-Earth orbit, such as The National Land Survey of Iceland (i. Landmælingar Íslands), which uses the Copernicus Land Monitoring Service for satellite imagery of Iceland; The Marine and Freshwater Research Institute (i. Hafrannsóknastofnun), which makes use of satellite imagery of Icelandic waters; and The Icelandic Meteorological Office, which makes use of imagery from NASA, Copernicus, EUMETSAT together with a multitude of other sources. Isavia, the Icelandic Civil Aviation Authority, has worked in length with the ESA, especially in the field of Space-Based Augmentation Systems, and under contracts on EGNOS ground segment deployment and operations.⁶⁵

The Icelandic Research and Innovation Institute (Rannís) coordinates and promotes Icelandic participation in European programs such as Horizon 2020, Erasmus+, and Creative Europe and as such does not participate by itself in space-related activities but can be a facilitator for Icelandic academia in the way of international participation on space-related research. According to the presentation of Rannís former director, Hallgrímur Jónasson, at the 2019 meeting, space science is a real success story within the UI.⁶⁵

The Electronic Communications Office of Iceland has been involved in the preparation for satellite filing in Iceland in cooperation with ManSat, a specialist in satellite filing services. This is done to prepare for Icelandic satellites, which are yet to materialize.

Finally, the Icelandic Transport Authority, together with Isavia, is responsible for Icelandic sovereign airspace together with the so-called Reykjavík Control Area, which, together with the ocean north of Iceland all the way up to the North Pole, covers most of Greenland as well, in total about 5.4 million km². This massive control area is one of Iceland’s strengths when it comes to the country serving as a base for suborbital launches, as mentioned previously.

A problem, when it comes to space-related activities in Iceland, has been the uncertainty on where these activities fall when it comes to the responsibility of the government ministries. Space-related activities are usually resource intensive, are very expensive, and require a fair amount of professionalism, and all uncertainty when it comes to infrastructure and legal frameworks can be a big obstacle. A case in point when it comes to this problem is Iceland’s trajectory toward a potential membership of the ESA, which bounced between the MFA and the MESC. Some aspects, such as most of those pertaining to some of the government agencies mentioned above, fall under the purview of the Ministry of Transport and Local Government. However, as of 2021, with the formation of a new government, a radical redistribution of tasks will take place between Icelandic government ministries with the formation of new ministries and the redefinition of others. Currently this adds to the confusion rather than mitigating it.

THE ROAD AHEAD, THREE SCENARIOS

Below we will pursue three future scenarios for the Iceland space industry: (1) The status quo, i.e., continued nonmembership of Iceland of the ESA and lack of governmental engagement; (2) a full membership of the ESA, enhancing current activities and adding some new ones, without a specific emphasis on it on behalf of the government; and (3) an ambitious space program led and supported by the government, focusing on making space research and exploration a priority within the Icelandic scientific community, thus building on Iceland’s strengths in that respect.

Scenario 1: Status Quo

In the first one, the status quo, private actors will continue being the main drivers for space-related activities in Iceland. Astronauts will likely continue to come to Iceland to practice, and through actors, such as the ISA and Space Iceland, the testing of space suits, equipment, and Lunar and Martian habitats would be facilitated. It is also quite possible that there will continue to be launches, primarily small-scale suborbital ones, in Iceland, as that is already underway. Icelandic scientists, from geologists to environmental engineers, will undoubtedly continue to participate in research networks aimed at space exploration, and in fact, most economic activity of private actors and companies would remain open for Icelandic private participation. However, access to larger-scale projects, such as those under the auspices of the ESA, would continue to be out of reach, and sustainability and coherent strategy would be lacking.

Scenario 2: ESA Membership

Thus, the second scenario pursues what that membership of the ESA would bring to the table. Which are the activities that the ESA is involved in which could find its way to Iceland? As mentioned earlier, the ESA works on the rule of thumb that any member state’s investment in the Agency is invested back in the member state.²² Thus, it is likely that this rule would apply to Iceland as a member state too, making the government’s financial contributions to the ESA actively an investment in space-related activities in Iceland. Looking at average contributions and Iceland’s GNP, Iceland’s contribution could be around that of Estonia, which was at 2 million Euros as of 2022.⁶⁶ In the appendix to the 2015 parliamentary call for Iceland’s membership, the cost is assessed using four countries as comparisons, ranging from Greece, with almost no voluntary contributions to Belgium with the highest voluntary contributions, and thus, it is estimated that Iceland’s contribution could be between 0.5 million and 5 million Euros, with the central value being 1.8 million Euros.¹¹ It is probable that this contribution would find its way into software development, which is already a significant industry in Iceland.¹¹

Scenario 3: A Space Program

The third scenario is the most ambitious one and the most potentially lucrative. That is if Iceland would, together with full participation in the ESA, pursue an ambitious space program, focusing on making space research and exploration a priority within the Icelandic scientific community, thus building on Iceland’s strengths in that respect. What could be achieved and which seeds are already in place to build such a venture on? A comparison can be made with Luxembourg, a country with a similar-sized population as Iceland. Luxembourg’s contribution to the ESA’s budget was 47.5 million Euros in 2022,⁶⁶ which would amount to roughly 19% of the Agency’s outlined budget to implement their recently announced 2023 Space Strategy.⁶⁷ This contribution finds its way back to Luxembourg of course, making Luxembourg the international hub for space law and an active guardian of treaties on space, similar to Switzerland’s role in humanitarian efforts and the Netherlands’ role in international law.

With an ambitious contribution to the ESA, Iceland could aim to become the European hub for preparations for deep space exploration, building on its geological similarity to the Moon and, perhaps in particular, Mars. The aim could be a “space station” of sorts, serving as a permanent training and testing ground for astronauts and space-bound technologies in extreme environments and a hub for research activities. An additional factor working in Iceland’s favor in this respect is the widespread use of sustainable energy sources in Iceland, in particular geothermal energy, making it relevant for future settlement on Mars.

CONCLUSIONS

Looking at what is going on in the way of space-related activities in Iceland, Icelandic actors are mostly engaged in space research through the universities and in cooperation with academics from abroad, in many instances in the field of geology or fields related to the volcanic and glacial characteristics of the island. The economic activities in Iceland in this field are, however, mostly in the category of “space analog tourism” and there, in a similar vein as in the field of research, the specific characteristics of Iceland as a Mars or Lunar analog come into the picture.

Viewing the potential scenarios for the future of space-related activities in Iceland and judging from the lack of knowledge, interest, and enthusiasm within the Icelandic civil Service and government, the third scenario, mentioned earlier, with Iceland as a full participant in the ESA, pursuing an ambitious space program, focusing on making space research and exploration a priority within the Icelandic scientific community, and building on Iceland’s strengths in that respect is, as of the writing of this article, very unlikely owing to the lack of governmental enthusiasm for space-related issues. Judging from the reactions to the offer of the United States for Iceland to join the Artemis program and the fate of the efforts to join the ESA, there seems to be neither the will nor the necessary knowledge within the Icelandic government to take advantage of opportunities in this field. It is however the one with the most potential financially, scientifically, and politically, which is a pity, as it could be a way to lessen Iceland’s serious brain drain, which has been a consistent factor during the whole lifetime of the republic. It could also bring true and real scientific benefits.

The second scenario—Iceland becoming a member of the ESA and thus opening that alley up for the Icelandic scientific community—is somewhat credible. Judging from Iceland’s participation in other European scientific initiatives, it is highly likely that Icelandic scientists would actively participate, together potentially with software engineers and even through the specific experience and knowledge Icelanders have gathered from using modified rovers in harsh environments, such as the Icelandic highlands and Antarctica. However, that would require that enthusiasm for space would have to grow within the Icelandic government and administration to finalize the ESA membership process. This then in turn could have an impact on the activities of private companies and individuals in Iceland, e.g., in regard to space analog tourism or manufacturing. Satellite launches will in all likelihood mostly be pursued by outside actors such as Skyrora.

Parliamentary elections took place in late September 2021. The government remained in place after the elections. There is of course the potential that space-related issues might find their way onto the government agenda, although, judging from the past, it is unlikely to be pursued actively. Meanwhile, Iceland will in all likelihood continue in the same way as it has until now, relatively lost in space.

Footnotes

AUTHOR DISCLOSURE STATEMENT

No competing financial interests exist.

FUNDING INFORMATION

No funding was received for this article.

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