Understanding How Change Happens: Process Research and the New Space Economy

INTRODUCTION

In 2025, the Oxford Handbook of the New Space Economy is scheduled to be released. I, along with about 3 dozen other authors, have been working with the handbook’s editor, Dr. Anthony D’Acosta, submitting and reviewing each other’s chapters to produce a comprehensive collection of what we know and understand to date about the phenomenon we call “New Space.” My chapter, as with other chapters, ² articles, ³ and editorials ⁴ I have written in the past, deals with encouraging the industry (including government officials and private sector CEOs) and academic members of the space sector to complement the common types of “industry analysis” with a deeper understanding of how the sector is changing.

PROCESS RESEARCH DESCRIPTION

In brief, the New Space Economy (NSE) is a rapidly growing and complex field. To make informed decisions in this dynamic environment, government officials, business leaders, entrepreneurs, investors, and academics need to understand how the NSE is changing and how those changes will affect the future. Traditionally, research on industry emergence has focused on “what” is changing, using variance research methods. Examples of variance research products come from the Organization of Economic Cooperative Development, Euroconsult, Bryce Tech, and many others. Unlike variance research, however, process research focuses on “how” change happens over time, offering valuable insights to complement variance research results and providing a deeper, richer, and more complete understanding of the dynamics driving industry emergence and change.

Process research focuses on understanding the underlying patterns of industry emergence, revealing the causal relationships and contextual factors that shape industry development. This approach moves beyond simply identifying trends and correlations to provide a richer, more nuanced narrative of how industries emerge and evolve.

Process research helps us understand the “why” and “how” behind the “what” of industry change. Instead of viewing change as a series of isolated events, process research recognizes change as a continuous, experiential process. It emphasizes the role of agency (the intentional actions of individuals and organizations) in shaping potential outcomes.

Process research typically involves a labor-intensive process of collecting qualitative data, such as historical records, interviews, and observations. These data are analyzed to identify key events, relationships, and patterns that reveal the underlying processes driving industry emergence. Some of the process research burden of labor may be reduced using the nascent artificial intelligence tools, like large language models.

One example of process research is the study of suborbital tourism I completed in 2018 and published in this journal. ³ This research used data from a variety of sources, including blogs, company websites, news articles, and interviews, to create a narrative of the industry’s emergence. This narrative revealed important insights about the role of government research, the impact of the Ansari X PRIZE, and the complex interactions between different stakeholders in shaping the industry.

COMBINING VARIANCE AND PROCESS RESEARCH RESULTS

Process research is valuable to a wide range of stakeholders:

Government officials can use process research to understand how policies and regulations affect industry development and to make more informed policy decisions. In the U.S., Department of Commerce and Office of Commercial Space Transportation leadership can use the combined results of process and variance research to make better policy and regulatory decisions to help grow the industry and protect the interests of the uninvolved public and the U.S. government).

Combining process research with variance research creates a more powerful tool for understanding and predicting industry emergence than either can offer by itself. While variance research can quantify trends and relationships identified through process research, including process research results can lead to a deeper understanding of the industry emergence phenomenon, thereby giving more accurate predictions. For example, understanding how a particular policy affected an industry’s development (through process research) can be combined with statistical analyses of market data (variance research) to better predict the potential impact of future policy changes.

CONCLUSION

Variance research conducted by space industry consultancy firms today is funded through a mix of private and government funding. I can say with confidence ¹ there is no process research conducted by the U.S. government in the space industry today. By understanding “how” industries change, stakeholders can better anticipate future trends, make strategic investments, and develop effective policies that support the growth and sustainability of the NSE. Currently, variance studies only draw a partial picture for their readers. Even though process research offers a unique and valuable perspective on industry emergence, it is not being performed. I, therefore, recommend a publicly funded process research program, studying the industry emergence phenomenon, be initiated to increase analytical benefits to the entire space sector.