Although substantial research has been conducted to quantify the determinants of
international migration, most official population projections do not include
such determinants in a formal migration model. Statistics Norway forecasts gross
immigration to Norway using an econometric model based on standard migration
theories. The main variables include income level, unemployment, and population
size in Norway and the sending countries, and the number of immigrants already
living in Norway. Projections of exogenous variables are drawn from
international and Norwegian sources. Three different alternatives are specified
for the income variables, leading to three different forecasts for gross
immigration until 2100.
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