How Do We Study “What Happens Next”?

Abstract

Applications of group trajectory modeling summarize individual histories in a language that is broadly accessible to clinicians. This strength depends on the belief that a population consists, at least roughly, of a small number of subgroups whose members display similar records of behavior. In this view, the purpose of longitudinal research is to reveal the unfolding of essential differences between groups. The author offers an alternative view, in which historical records of personal behavior reflect a continuous interplay between individual action and environmental intervention. This interplay generates, for each participant, a myriad of potential trajectories. Rather than smoothing over this complexity with a small number of trajectory classes, the author proposes models that allow personal and environmental contributions to generate appropriate developmental complexity. The author illustrates this alternative approach using two examples: children's learning during the elementary years and effects of age and history on violent offending.

Keywords

longitudinal research latent class models hierarchical linear models

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