Changing Ideologies in the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe

1. The survey was conducted as part of a NATO Research Fellowship held by the author during 1992-93. The initial report on the project can be found in Dennis J. D. Sandole , “The New European Peace and Security System (NEPSS): Preliminary Analysis of a CSCE Elite Survey” (NATO Research Fellowship Final Report, Institute for Conflict Analysis and Resolution, George Mason University, Feb. 1994).

2. These included negotiations and meetings of the Forum for Security Cooperation; the Consultative Committee of the Conflict Prevention Centre; Vienna Group of the Committee of Senior Officials; the Conventional Armed Forces in Europe Joint Consultative Group; and the Open Skies Consultative Committee.

3. On 1 Nov. 1993, the European Community (EC) became the European Union (EU).

4. See Dennis J. D. Sandole , “Paradigms, Theories, and Metaphors in Conflict and Conflict Resolution: Coherence or Confusion?” in Conflict Resolution Theory and Practice: Integration and Application, ed. Dennis J. D. Sandole and Hugo van der Merwe (Manchester: Manchester University Press; New York: St. Martin's Press, 1993).

As will be seen, flexibility in this study comprises three operational dimensions: the extent to which CSCE negotiators favor (1) the development of NATO and the North Atlantic Cooperation Council into the transatlantic, pan-European security component of a CSCE-based New European Peace and Security System; (2) a positive-peace complement to negative-peace processes; and (3) a Track 2 complement to Track 1 processes.

6. John W. Burton , “Problems of Leadership” (Manuscript, Institute for Conflict Analysis and Resolution, George Mason University, 1991).

7. Elements of the first type of theory can be found in Sandole , “Paradigms, Theories, and Metaphors.”

idem , “Post-Cold War Peace and Security Systems in Europe: Prospects and Prescriptions,” Peace and the Sciences (Mar. 1993).

9. For a discussion of these conflict-handling approaches, see John W. Burton and Frank Dukes , Conflict: Practices in Management, Settlement and Resolution (London: Macmillan; New York: St. Martin's Press, 1990).

Also, for a theoretical framework that matches peacekeeping and conflict resolution intervention to severity of cibfkuctm see Ronald J. Fisher and Loraleigh Keashly , “The Potential Complementarity of Mediation and Consultation within a Contingency Model of Third Party Intervention,” Journal of Peace Research, 28(1) (Feb. 1991).

11. Chava Frankfort-Nachmias and David Nachmias , Research Methods in the Social Sciences, 4th ed. (New York: St. Martin's Press, 1992), p. 224.

12. One representative from each of the CSCE states in the sample was interviewed, with the exception of Germany, Italy, and the United States, each of which made available two representatives for interview. Hence, although 29 CSCE states were included in the sample, 32 individuals were interviewed. Of these, 23, or 72 percent, were heads of delegation.

13. According to these figures, the total CSCE population would appear to be 49 states. Not included, however, are Albania and the 3 Baltic states (Lithuania, Estonia, and Latvia), whose CSCE representatives also could not be reached for interview. Hence, 49 plus 4 equals a total of 53 CSCE participating states, of which 29, or 54.7 percent, constituted the sample for this study.

14. Subsequent reports will include qualitative analyses of the 12 open-ended questions.

15. See Abraham Kaplan , The Conduct of Inquiry: Methodology for Behavioral Science (San Francisco: Chandler, 1964), pp. 12-18.

See also Stephen Iwan Griffiths , Nationalism and Ethnic Conflict: Threats to European Security, Stockholm International Peace Research Institute Research Report no. 5 (New York: Oxford University Press, 1993).

Russell Watson et al. , “The Bear's Long Arm,” Newsweek, 11 Oct. 1993, pp. 36-38.

18. The inverse relationship implied here between age and flexibility does not hold up too well under rigorous testing. For example, according to Pearson product-moment correlation coefficients (r) computed for age and the three dimensions of flexibility (the data in Tables 3-5), the older the respondent, (1) the less he or she was in favor of a Track 2 complement to Track 1 processes (r=-.32; p<.05); (2) the less he or she was in favor of a positivepeace complement to negative-peace processes (r=-.14); and (3) the more he or she was in favor of NATO and NACC within a CSCE-based NEPSS (r= +.11). Hence, in terms of direction of relationship, two of these coefficients are compatible with the implied inverse relationship; overall, however, they are not very significant. Their magnitudes indicate low levels of variation explained (1 percent, 2 percent, and 10 percent) and only one of them—the coefficient on favoring a Track 2 complement to Track 1 processes—falls within the .05 minimum critical region.

19. According to the Pearson coefficients computed in this case, the greater the respondent's years of service, the less he or she was in favor of a Track 2 complement to Track 1 processes (r = -.28). Although, in terms of direction of relationship, the coefficients on the remaining two indicators of flexibility are also compatible with the assumption of an inverse relationship, their values are barely above zero. If we look at age and length of service together, we find that while age has one coefficient in the .05 critical region and length of service has none, length of service has all three coefficients in the direction of an inverse relationship, while age has two. On the other hand, while length of service and age each have one coefficient with a value in excess of .25, and both are in the same category—favoring a Track 2 complement to Track 1 processes—the magnitude of the coefficient for age (-.32) dominates that for length of service (-.28). Overall, therefore, in terms of direction of relationship, years of service might be a more promising correlate of all three dimensions of flexibility than would age. On the other hand, in terms of magnitude, age might be a more promising correlate of one of those dimensions: favoring a Track 2 complement to Track 1 processes. Accordingly, these trends are clearly grist for the mill of future research. I acknowledge with appreciation Ilana Shapiro, who helped with data processing, and Daniel Druckman, who kindly offered to apply his statistical package to the computation of these coefficients and the coefficients in n. 18.

20. Thomas S. Kuhn , The Structure of Scientific Revolutions, 2d ed. (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1970), p. 144.

21. Copies of the author's NATO Research Fellowship final report, “New European Peace and Security System,” were sent to (1) all 32 respondents; (2) CSCE officials, such as the secretary-general, the High Commissioner on National Minorities, and the directors of the Conflict Prevention Centre and Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights; (3) various NGOs, such as the Austrian Study Center for Peace and Conflict Resolution, International Alert, the Carter Center's International Negotiation Network, the Institute for Multitrack Diplomacy, Partners for Democratic Change, and Helsinki Citizens Assembly; and (4) others, such as NATO, the United Nations Institute for Training and Research, U.N. Department of Humanitarian Affairs, and the U.S. Arms Control and Disarmament Agency.

22. See Ted Robert Gurr , Minorities at Risk: A Global View of Ethnopolitical Conflicts (Washington, DC: U.S. Institute of Peace, 1993).

23. NATO has not, thus far, intervened in this manner in the war in Bosnia-Herzegovina.

John Pomfret, “Spurned in Sarajevo Visit, U.N. Chief Hints at Pullout,” ibid., 1 Dec. 1994.

25. On 1 Jan. 1995, the CSCE became the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe. See CSCE Budapest Document 1994: Towards a Genuine Partnership in a New Era (Budapest, 6 Dec. 1994).