The 2004 U.S. presidential election was a wartime contest that entailed a great deal of discussion about the role that previous military service plays in elections for both candidates and the electorate. Using polling data throughout 2004, this article examines party identification, candidate affect, and vote choice preferences among veterans and nonveterans in the electorate. Despite widespread assumptions depicting the veteran population as deeply Republican, those with military experience in 2004 largely mirrored their nonveteran peers in terms of partisan identification, warmth toward candidates, ballot intentions, and vote choice. One important exception manifested after the “Swift Boat” advertisement in September, which impelled significant numbers of veterans who identify with the Democratic Party to express the intention to vote for George W. Bush.
Helmut Norpoth and Bruce Buchanan , “Wanted: The Education President: Issue Trespassing by Political Candidates,”Public Opinion Quarterly56, 1 (1992): 88-88 ; John R. Petrocik, “Issue Ownership in Presidential Elections, with a 1980 Case Study,” American Journal of Political Science 40, 3 (1996).
2.
Diane H. Mazur , “The Bullying of America: A Cautionary Tale about Military Voting and Civil-Military Relations,”Election Law Journal4, 2 (2005); David Barstow and Don Van Natta, Jr., “Examining the Vote: Mining the Overseas Absentee Vote,” The New York Times, July 15, 2001.
3.
Ole R. Holsti , “Of Chasms and Convergences: Attitudes and Beliefs of Civilians and Military Elites at the Start of a New Millennium,” in Soldiers and Civilians: The Civil-Military Gap and American National Security, ed. Peter D. Feaver and Richard H. Kohn ( Cambridge, MA: MIT Press , 2001), 32-32.
4.
M. Kent Jennings and Gregory B. Markus , “The Effect of Military Service on Political Attitudes: A Panel Study,”American Political Science Review71, 1 (1977).
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Lois Romano , “Bush's Guard Service in Question,”The Washington Post, February 3, 2004. These criticisms repeated accusations during the 2000 election: for example, Walter V. Robinson, “Questions Remain on Bush's Service as Guard Pilot,” Boston Globe, October 31, 2000.
6.
E. J. Dionne Jr. , “Bush Struggling to Shed Questions on Quayle Service,”The New York Times, August 21, 1988; Maureen Dowd, “Dole Says Quayle Is Damaging Bush,” The New York Times, August 22, 1988.
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Michael Dobbs , “Democrat Says He Helped Bush into Guard to Score Points,”The Washington Post, September 4, 2004; James Moore, Bush's War for Reelection: Iraq, the White House, and the People (Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons, 2004).
8.
Jonathan Finer , “Clark's ‘Troops’ Stand by for Orders on the Ground; N.H. Volunteers Aren't Waiting for Official Word,”The Washington Post, September 15, 2003.
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Mark Leibovich , “Forward, March! The General's Well-Drilled Rallies Have Just a Touch of Brass,”The Washington Post (January 27, 2004). Clark's relatively late entry into the race necessitating him concentrating resources in New Hampshire and largely forgoing the earlier Iowa Caucuses.
10.
Elaine Sciolino , “Milosevic Trial Helps Clark Try to Gain Notice,”The New York Times, December 17, 2003, p. A1-A1 ; R. Jeffrey Smith, “Clark's Role in Kosovo Exemplifies His Traits,” The Washington Post, December 17, 2003.
11.
Howard Kurtz , “Clark Running on His Résumé ,” The Washington Post, December 30, 2003.
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Jim Rutenberg , “Clark's First Televised Ad to Highlight War Record,”The New York Times, November 15, 2003.
13.
Carla Marinucci and John Wildermuth , “New Hampshire Primary: Kerry Gains Momentum in Nation's First Primary,”San Francisco Chronicle, January 28, 2004, p. A1-A1 .
14.
David Jackson , “John Kerry: Veteran Politician,”Chicago Tribune, December 4, 2003; David M. Halbfinger, “Kerry's Antiwar Past Is a Delicate Issue in His Campaign,” The New York Times, April 24, 2004.
15.
Ceci Connolly , “A Surge Fueled by Stamina, Wealth and Veterans' Support,”The Washington Post, January 19, 2004.
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Jason Zengerle , “The Vet Wars,”New York Times Magazine, May 23, 2004; Jill Lawrence, “Kerry Counting on Veterans to Help Him Win,” USA Today, April 6, 2004; David Jackson and Michelle Mittlestadt, “Vietnam's Echoes Reverberating for Bush and Kerry,” Seattle Times, February 14, 2004.
17.
Joseph J. Schatz , “Kerry Campaign Leans on Veterans for Convention Duty,”CQ Today, July 20, 2004; Chris Casteel, “Veterans Get More Emphasis,” Oklahoman, July 27, 2004.
18.
Jim VandeHei , “Kerry Returns to Boston with ‘Band of Brothers’; Former Crewmates Continue to Help in His Campaign,”The Washington Post, July 29, 2004.
19.
The 527 groups are eponymously named for the federal tax code befitting their tax-exempt status.
20.
Mark Memmott , “Swift Boat Group Ignores Bush's Plea, Airs New TV Ad,”USA Today, August 31, 2004.
21.
John E. O'Neill and Jerome R. Corsi , Unfit for Command ( Washington, DC: Regnery , 2004). A more objective account of Kerry's Vietnam service can be found in Douglas Brinkley, Tour of Duty: John Kerry and the Vietnam War (New York: William Morrow, 2004).
22.
For example, Philip Sherwell , “How the West Wing Was Won,”Sunday Telegraph, November 7, 2004.
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For example, Karen E. Crummy , “Bush Has Edge with Vets,”Denver Post, August 29, 2004.
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Adam Clymer , “Veterans Rate Bush Higher Than Kerry on Many Dimensions, but Kerry Gained after Convention, Annenberg Data Show,”NAES04 Press Release, August 26, 2004.
25.
At the time of this writing, Annenberg had not made their individual-level data available. See Daniel Romer et al., Capturing Campaign Dynamics, 2000 and 2004: The National Annenberg Election Survey ( Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania Press , 2006).
26.
Angus Campbell et al., The American Voter ( New York: John Wiley , 1960).
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Bernard R. Berelson , Paul F. Lazarsfeld , and William N. McPhee , Voting: A Study of Opinion Formation in a Presidential Campaign ( Chicago: University of Chicago Press , 1954).
28.
The reality behind this mythological relationship in the United States is recounted in James Burk , “Citizenship Status and Military Service: The Quest for Inclusion by Minorities and Conscientious Objectors,”Armed Forces & Society21, 4 (1995); Christopher Parker, “Fighting for Democracy: Race, Military Service, and Insurgency in the Jim Crow South,” (Unpublished manuscript).
29.
Glen H. Elder , Cynthia Gimbel , and Rachel Ivie , “Turning Points in Life: The Case of Military Service and War,”Military Psychology3, 4 (1991): 215-215 . Three critical reviews of the literature on political socialization in the military include Charles C. Moskos, “The Military,” Annual Review of Sociology 2 (1976); Ronald R. Krebs, “A School for the Nation? How Military Service Does Not Build Nations, and How It Might,” International Security 28, 4 (2004); John P. Lovell and Judith Hicks Stiehm, “Military Service and Political Socialization,” in Political Learning in Adulthood: A Sourcebook of Theory and Research, ed. Roberta S. Sigel (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1989).
30.
Roger W. Little , “Basic Education and Youth Socialization in the Armed Forces,”American Journal of Orthopsychiatry38, 5 (1968).
31.
See J. Carl Ficarrotta , “Are Military Professionals Bound by a Higher Moral Standard?,”Armed Forces & Society24, 1 (1997): note 1.
32.
Robert W. Gage , “Patriotism and Military Discipline as a Function of Degree of Military Training,”Journal of Social Psychology64 (1964).
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Richard Christie , “Changes in Authoritarianism as Related to Situational Factors,”American Psychologist7 (1952); William Eckhart et al., “Militarism in Our Culture Today,” Journal of Human Relations 15 (1967); James E. Dorman, “ROTC Cadet Attitudes: A Product of Socialization or Self-Selection?” Journal of Political and Military Sociology 4 (1976).
34.
Elizabeth G. French and Raymond R. Ernest , “The Relationship between Authoritarianism and Acceptance of Military Ideology,”Journal of Personality24 (1955); E. P. Hollander, “Authoritarianism and Leadership Choice in a Military Setting,” Journal of Abnormal Psychology 49, 3 (1954); Richard W. Firestone, “Social Conformity and Authoritarianism in the Marine Corps” (PhD Dissertation, New York University, 1959); Donald T. Campbell and Thelma H. McCormack, “Military Experience and Attitudes toward Authority,” American Journal of Sociology 62, 5 (1957).
35.
E. M. Schreiber , “Enduring Effects of Military Service? Opinion Differences between U.S. Veterans and Nonveterans,”Social Forces57, 3 (1979).
36.
Ekkehard Lippert , Paul Schneider , and Ralf Zoll , “The Influence of Military Service on Political and Social Attitudes,”Armed Forces & Society4, 2 (1978); Klaus Roghmann and Wolfgang Sodeur, “The Impact of Military Service on Authoritarian Attitudes: Evidence from West Germany,” American Journal of Sociology 78, 2 (1972); Roland Wakenhut, “Effects of Military Service on the Political Socialization of Draftees,” Armed Forces & Society 5, 4 (1979).
37.
Jennings and Markus , “The Effect of Military Service.”
38.
James L. Regens , “Political Attitudes and Vietnam-Era Military Service,”Social Science Journal14, 3 (1977); David R. Segal and Mady Wechsler Segal, “The Impact of Military Service on Trust in Government, International Attitudes, and Social Status,” in The Social Psychology of Military Service, ed. Nancy L Goldman and David R. Segal (Beverly Hills, CA: Sage, 1976).
39.
Regens , “Political Attitudes and Vietnam-Era Military Service.”
40.
Arthur I. Gladstone , “The Possibility of Predicting Reactions to International Events,”Journal of Social Issues11, 1 (1955).
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Segal and Segal , “The Impact of Military Service on Trust in Government, International Attitudes, and Social Status”; M. Brewster Smith, “Did War Service Produce International-Mindedness?” Harvard Educational Review 15 (1945).
42.
David Brady and Leon Rappoport , “Violence and Vietnam: A Comparison between Attitudes of Civilians and Veterans,”Human Relations26, 6 (1973); John S. Butler and Margaret A. Johnson, “An Overview of the Relationships between Demographic Characteristics of Americans and their Attitudes towards Military Issues,” Journal of Political and Military Sociology 19, (Winter 1991).
43.
Jerald G. Bachman and M. Kent Jennings , “The Impact of Vietnam on Trust in Government,”Journal of Social Issues31, 4 (1975): 152-152 .
44.
Samuel A. Kirkpatrick and James L. Regens , “Military Experience and Foreign Policy Belief Systems,”Journal of Political and Military Sociology6, 1 (1978).
45.
Volker C. Franke , “Generation X and the Military: A Comparison of Attitudes and Values between West Point Cadets and College Students,”Journal of Political and Military Sociology29, 1 (2001).
46.
Ted Goertzel and Acco Hengst , “The Military Socialization of University Students,”Social Problems19, 2 (1971).
47.
James A. Barber , “The Social Effects of Military Service,” in The Military and American Society, ed. Stephen E. Ambrose and James A. Barber ( New York: Free Press , 1972); Segal and Segal, “The Impact of Military Service on Trust in Government, International Attitudes, and Social Status”; Desmond P. Wilson and Jessie Horack, “Military Experience as a Determinant of Veterans' Attitudes,” in The Vietnam Veteran in Contemporary Society: Collected Materials Pertaining to the Young Veterans, ed. Lewis J. Sherman and Eugene M. Caffey, Jr. (Washington, DC: Veterans Administration, 1972).
48.
William G. Dubyak , “The Impact of Service on Turnout” (paper presented at the Midwest Political Science Association Conference, Chicago, IL, April, 2005); Suzanne Mettler, “Bringing the State Back in to Civic Engagement: Policy Feedback Effects of the G.I. Bill for World War II Veterans,” American Political Science Review 96, 2 (2002).
49.
Christopher G. Ellison , “Military Background, Racial Orientations, and Political Participation among Black Adult Males,”Social Science Quarterly73, 2 (1992); David L. Leal, “It's Not Just a Job: Military Service and Latino Political Participation,” Political Behavior 21, 2 (1999); Parker, “Fighting for Democracy.”
50.
M. Kent Jennings and Gregory B. Markus , “Political Participation and Vietnam War Veterans: A Longitudinal Study,” in The Social Psychology of Military Service, ed. Nancy L. Goldman and David R. Segal ( Beverly Hills, CA: Sage , 1976); Jeremy M. Teigen, “Enduring Effects of the Uniform: Previous Military Service and Voting Turnout,” Political Research Quarterly 59, 4 (2006).
51.
Kenneth P. Langton , “The Influence of Military Service on Social Consciousness and Protest Behavior,”Comparative Political Studies16, 4 (1984).
52.
Sam Stavisky , “Where Does the Veteran Stand Today?”Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science259 (1948).
53.
Scott Ainsworth , “Electoral Strength and the Emergence of Group Influence in the Late 1800s: The Grand Army of the Republic,”American Politics Quarterly23, 3 (1995).
54.
William R. Keech and Kyoungsan Pak , “Electoral Cycles and Budgetary Growth in Veterans' Benefit Growth,”American Journal of Political Science33, 4 (1989). A recent and thorough exposition of scholarly treatments of veterans political movements in relation to veteran benefits can be found in Stephen R. Ortiz, “The ‘New Deal’ for Veterans: The Economy Act, the Veterans of Foreign Wars, and the Origins of New Deal Dissent,” Journal of Military History 70, 2 (2006).
55.
For specifics on ANES feeling-thermometer measurement, see the ANES Web site (www.electionstudies.org) and Allyson L. Holbrook et al., “Attitudes toward Presidential Candidates and Political Parties: Initial Optimism, Inertial First Impressions, and a Focus on Flaws,”American Journal of Political Science45, 4 (2001).
56.
ABC News/Washington Post, “ABC News/Washington Post Poll, March 2004” (ICPSR version; Horsham, PA: Taylor Nelson Sofres Intersearch [producer]. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2004).
57.
“The ANES Guide to Public Opinion and Electoral Behavior,” in The American National Election Studies ( Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan, Center for Political Studies ; www.electionstudies.org).
58.
Using a regression model (ordered probit) to identify factors driving party identification as a multivariate follow-up test, the usual suspects of ideology, gender, etc. live up to their expectations while the veteran variable held no effect. In addition to the lack of a relationship between partisanship and military service in 2004, ideology does not associate with military service meaningfully either. Similar findings appear when considering the ABC/Washington Post data, though their measurement of partisanship differs from ANES, making comparison difficult.
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This slight tilt also manifests in two of the ABC/Washington Post samples.
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The χ2 statistic is 0.7824. To consider the same question a different way, a t test comparing the veteran sample's party identity mean (3.99 on the seven-point scale in which 1 = “strong Democrat” and 7 = “strong Republican”) to the nonveteran mean (3.85) assuming unequal variance does not demonstrate statistical or substantive differences (p= .452).
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More evidence of this finding can be seen in comparing the goodness-of-fit estimates (R2). The ability of the factors listed to explain the variance in candidate affect is robust for the Kerry and Bush models but is significantly diminished in the Powell, McCain, and Nader models.
62.
Schreiber, “Enduring Effects of Military Service?”
63.
This finding does not suggest that civilian nonveterans hold the military in disregard—the military is among the most trusted institutions in the eyes of the American public. See David C. King and Zachary Karabell , The Generation of Trust: Public Confidence in the U.S. Military since Vietnam( Washington, DC: AEI Press , 2003).
64.
Two examples reporting on different polling data depicting similar conclusions are Crummy, “Bush Has Edge with Vets”; Eric M. Weiss , “Veterans Mostly Support Bush, National Poll Finds,”The Washington Post, August 27, 2004.
65.
Gary King , Michael Tomz , and Jason Wittenberg , “Making the Most of Statistical Analyses: Improving Interpretation and Presentation,”American Journal of Political Science44, 2 (2000).
66.
Thomas E. Ricks , “The Great Society in Camouflage,”Atlantic Monthly278, 6 (1996).
67.
The gap literature is exemplified by Peter Feaver and Richard H. Kohn, Soldiers and Civilians: The Civil-Military Gap and American National Security ( Cambridge, MA: MIT Press , 2001). Also see Craig P. Cummings, Jason K. Dempsey, and Robert Y. Shapiro, “Partisan Pressure: Political Ideology and Party Affiliations of West Point Cadets” (paper presented at the Midwest Political Science Association Conference, Chicago, IL, April 7–10, 2005).
68.
For evidence that ameliorates notions of differences between enlisted personnel and civilians using high school seniors with military intentions, see David R. Segal et al., “Attitudes of Entry-Level Enlisted Personnel: Pro-Military and Politically Mainstreamed,” in Soldiers and Civilians: The Civil-Military Gap and American National Security, ed. Peter Feaver and Richard H. Kohn ( Cambridge, MA: MIT Press , 2001). Another study that finds intermittent differences between veterans and nonveterans is John Fulwider, “The Veteran Vote: Electoral Effects of Candidate and Voter Military Service in Presidential Campaigns” (paper presented at the Midwest Political Science Association Conference, Chicago, IL, April 7–10, 2005).
69.
Charles E. Cook, Jr. , “Did 2004 Transform U.S. Politics?”Washington Quarterly28, 2 (2005).
70.
Matthew J. Morgan , “American Empire and the American Military,”Armed Forces & Society32, 2 (2006).
71.
The Swift Boat ad can be viewed online at http://livingroomcandidate.movingimage.us/.
72.
Daron R. Shaw , The Race to 270: The Electoral College and the Campaign Strategies of 2000 and 2004 ( Chicago: Chicago University Press , 2006); Daron R. Shaw, “The Effect of TV Ads and Candidate Appearances on Statewide Presidential Votes, 1988–1996,” American Political Science Review 93, 2 (1999).
73.
Gwyneth K. Shaw , “From Soldiers to Politicians,”Baltimore Sun, April 18, 2006.
