The Interaction Between Democracy and Ethnopolitical Protest and Rebellion in Africa

This article reconciles theoretical and methodological differences between the Minorities at Risk (MAR) project and Bratton and van de Walle's 1997 analysis of democratic transitions occurring between 1990 and 1994. Analyses based on MAR have shown that protest in the 1980s was more likely to occur in more democratic African countries, whereas violent rebellion was more likely to occur in more autocratic countries. Bratton and van de Walle have shown that urban protests also occurred more frequently in more democratic countries. This article replicates earlier findings that prior democracy is an important variable for explaining ethnopolitical protest and rebellion. The authors analyze the relationship between such ethnopolitical action and democratic transitions and levels of democracy in 1994 and show that democracy and worker-student protest are mutually reinforcing, whereas democracy and rebellion are mutually incompatible. The authors further demonstrate that ethnopolitical protest is neutral in its consequences for democratization.