Does the class composition matter? Social and immigrant class composition in compulsory school and the trajectory to upper-secondary education in Germany and Switzerland

Drawing on survey data from Germany and German-speaking Switzerland, we examine whether the class composition at lower-secondary level—in particular, the proportion of low-SES and immigrant students—is associated with students’ trajectories to post-compulsory education, using linear probability models. By focusing on two tracked education systems, our study extends the existing research, which primarily examines comprehensive education systems. Our findings indicate a generally weak relationship between class composition and educational attainment, partly mediated by class-level aspirations and achievement. However, the results underscore that in tracked education systems, individual-level characteristics matter more than class composition. We conclude that it is the institutional setting of tracking, which is linked to track-specific opportunity structures, that shapes educational trajectories and life chances.