Abstract
67.1901 ADAMS, James F.; SCHEINER, Ethan; KAWASUMI, Jed —
We present theoretical and empirical analyses of candidates’ platforms in the 2003 and 2009 Japanese House of Representatives elections, in an effort to understand candidates’ strategic decisions to emphasize policy debates and to highlight their character-based qualities. Our study highlights the significance of “comparative electoral advantages” that motivate differing strategies between candidates from different parties, between candidates competing in rural versus urban districts, and between candidates contesting the 2003 versus the 2009 elections. Our study contributes to the growing literature that jointly analyzes politicians’ “policy-based” vote-seeking strategies versus electoral appeals based on “valence-related” attributes such as competence, integrity, and leadership ability, that may appeal to voters because they enhance winning candidates’ performance in office. [R]
67.1902 ADIDA, Claire L.; DAVENPORT, Lauren D.; McCLENDON, Gwyneth —
The number of minority voters in the US continues to rise, and politicians must increasingly appeal to a diverse electorate. Are ethnic cues effective with different groups of minority voters? We investigate this question across the two largest minority groups in the US: Blacks and Latinos. Drawing on American politics research, we propose that Black respondents will react positively to co-ethnic and co-minority cues, while Latinos will be less receptive to such cues, and that this difference will be due at least in part to varying perceptions of discrimination across the two groups. We test this argument with an experimental design that leverages Congressman Ch. Rangel's mixed heritage as Black and Latino. [R, abr.]
67.1903 ADINOLFI, Goffredo —
In the last Italian general election (2013), the 5 Star Movement (M5S) led by comedian B. Grillo gathered 25% of the vote. The M5S and its anti-elitist rhetoric is undoubtedly part of the family of the populist parties. The profile of the grillini, with a higher level of education than the Italian average, is motivated by a genuine desire for participation. The main characteristics of the Movement [are]: the populist rhetoric, citizens/elite, and the wish for a more participatory democracy and finally an explicit preference for direct democracy. [R] [See Abstr. 67.2241]
67.1904 AEBY, Michael —
The paper identifies CSOs’ organizational capacity, nature of engagement in the political process and relations with the power-sharing parties as the principal issues affecting CSOs’ ability to promote peace-making and democratization in the context of a transitional executive powersharing process. Based on these analytical themes, the analysis argues that CSOs’ sway on the transition was particularly constrained by organizational fragmentation and disunity, divergent strategies vis-à-vis the interregnum, diminishing access to political elites, the latter's refusal to permit greater civic involvement, and continued repression. [R]
67.1905 AKSOY, Ozan —
Using Regression Discontinuity diagnostics, we document a number of statistical anomalies in the 2004 Turkish mayoral elections. The governing party that controls the parliament is much more likely to win close races than lose. Moreover, compared to close governing party losses, there is a sharp drop in turnout and contending party votes in close governing party wins. Finally, the parties that disproportionately lose very close races are exclusively ideological competitors of the governing party. Among the potential mechanisms that may create those anomalies, electoral manipulation seems to a plausible explanation. [R, abr.]
67.1906 ALEXANDER, Keith —
In October 1978, diverse members of the West Berlin Left founded the Alternative Liste für Demokratie und Umweltschutz (Alternative List for Democracy and Environmental Protection, AL). This article examines the origins and evolution of the AL. Initially, the new political organization fundamentally opposed the parliamentary system. Within three years, however, the AL won a significant presence in the West Berlin Parliament, and in 1989, the party joined the Social Democrats in governing West Berlin. The AL's parliamentary participation had a moderating, integrative effect on the party and its members. From the late 1970s through the end of the 1980s, a significant segment of the radical West German Left grew to accept parliamentary democracy, demonstrating the strength of the Federal Republic. [R]
67.1907 ALLEN, Nicholas; BARA, Judith —
This article analyzes the content of the 2015 British General Election manifestos using manually derived Manifesto Project estimates and computer-assisted text-analysis (CATA). It analyzes the parties’ policy emphases, investigates their ideological positioning and movement, and further compares their policy agendas with voters’ concerns. It finds the three main parties moved slightly leftwards but continued to agree on the broad thrust of economic policy. It also finds that, while the economy dominated the manifestos, there was considerable differentiation in respect of other issues. Finally, the parties appeared to downplay the issue of immigration despite its importance to the public. [R]
67.1908 ALLEN, Peter; CUTTS, David —
This article unpacks the rationales behind individual-level support for the idea that there ought to be more women present in political institutions. We outline two distinct rationales: the substantive position that sees an increase in women's descriptive representation as important in bringing about a subsequent improvement in women's substantive representation, or the justice-plus position that sees an increase in the descriptive representation of women as important for reasons of justice or other symbolic benefits. We find that women are more likely than men to support an increase in descriptive representation and that women are more likely to hold both the view that an increase in descriptive representation was desirable and that such an increase would improve the representation of women's political interests. [R, abr.]
67.1909 AMIRPUR, Katajun —
Under the heading “circulating norms” the article is about the discourse of democracy and human rights in Iran. It describes the negative and critical attitudes towards democracy taken by some illustrious Iranian intellectuals in the 1960s and 1970s. Then, however, at the beginning of the 1990s, some outstanding thinkers turned towards democracy. Liberal thinkers such as M. M. Shabestari and A. Soroush grounded the concept of democracy in traditional views of justification. This indicates that democracy was apparently recognized as a norm. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 67.1592]
67.1910 ANZIA, Sarah F.; MOE, Terry M. —
Schattschneider's insight that “policies make politics” has played an influential role in the modern study of political institutions and public policy. Yet if policies do indeed make politics, rational politicians have opportunities to use policies to structure future politics to their own advantage — and this strategic dimension has gone almost entirely unexplored. Do politicians actually use policies to make politics? Under what conditions? We develop a theoretical argument about what can be expected from strategic politicians, and we carry out an empirical analysis on a policy development that is particularly instructive: the adoption of public-sector collective bargaining laws by the states during the 1960s, 1970s, and early 1980s that fueled the rise of public-sector unions, and “made politics” to the advantage of Democrats over Republicans. [R]
67.1911 ARAMBOUROU, Clément; BUGNON, Fanny —
[In] the municipal campaign of 2013–2014, A. Juppé leads a list composed of right and center parties, prone to be divided by these conflictual topics. Fieldwork does not evidence the avoidance of these sexual issues. On the contrary, Juppé's political team puts forward and reframes these supposedly “leftist” themes. In particular, these sexual issues are integrated within a consensual municipal policy. Due to his personal dispositions and to the political situation, Juppé is allowed to use these sexual issues to revive his municipal political enterprise through the renovation of Chabanist and Gaullist themes and the development of his liberal program. Beyond this local political configuration, this study sheds light on the preparation of a presidential role-taking based on a mayoral experience. [R, abr.]
67.1912 ARELLANO-GAULT, David —
Mexico undertook a bold transparency reform 13 years back. This reform promised one objective: to increase citizens’ trust in the government. However, trust in the Mexican government is still extremely low (and decreasing). In order to understand this situation the article argues that the contradiction is created by the logics of the New Institutional Economics (NIE) assumptions, the analytical base for this reform. NIE oversimplifies the social and political dynamics of public organizations, producing a paradox: in order to increase trust in government, citizens must have a structural distrust on their public organizations. The article proposes to go beyond NIE in order to actually increase trust in governments. [R] [See Abstr. 67.1361]
67.1913 ARZHEIMER, Kai —
Using new data for the 1977–2012 period, this article shows that dealignment has halted during the last decade amongst older and better educated West German voters, and that party identification is now more widespread than it was in the 1990s in the east. For voters who identified with one of the relevant parties at the time of the 2013 election, their vote choice was more or less a foregone conclusion, as candidates and issues played only a minor role for this group. A detailed analysis of leftist voters shows that supporters of the Greens, the Left, and the SPD have broadly similar preferences but diverging partisan identities. Even amongst western voters of the Left, most respondents claim to be identifiers. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 67.1983]
67.1914 ATKESON, Lonna Rae; MAESTAS, Cherie D. —
We explore the implications of sequential presidential primary elections for turnout in selecting the presidential party nominees. Drawing from a micro-level theory of participation in sequential elections, we develop a set of aggregate-level hypotheses that tease out different ways that candidate mobilization efforts as well as the legal and institutional structures within a sequential contest influence turnout in presidential nomination contests. Using data from all state primary elections from 1972–2016, we find that electorates facing winnowed candidate pools, and those with contests after the effective endings to presidential contests have substantially reduced turnout that effectively disenfranchises voters in many states. Sequenced primary elections lead to lower overall turnout and less meaningful participation for many voters during presidential nominations contests. [R]
67.1915 AYLOTT, Nicholas; BOLIN, Niklas —
The question of how party leaders are selected has recently, and belatedly, come under systematic comparative scrutiny. Using a delegation perspective, we thus present a framework for analyzing prior steps in leader selection and relate it to various ideal-typical constellations of intra-party power. The framework encompasses, first, what we call precursory delegation, with focus especially on an agent that, formally or informally, manages the selection process before it reaches the selectorate. Second, the framework takes account of the degree to which the process is managed rather than left open to free competition between leader candidates. We illustrate the framework primarily with instances of leader selection in two Swedish parties. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 67.2139]
67.1916 BAHNERS, Patrick —
The English Reformation, carried out by Henry VIII, can be considered as the “first Brexit”. The 1532 law that gave legal force to England's dissociation of the Roman Catholic Church was entitled “An Act in Restraint of Appeals”. This wording means that the Parliament prevented the King's subjects from appealing the legal text before the Pope, making the King the final legal authority in religious and other matters in England, Wales, and other English possessions. Today, Britain's withdrawal from the EU has allowed the country's legislature to escape the European Court of Justice's supervision. The UK has recovered parliamentary sovereignty and consolidated its “splendid isolation”.
67.1917 BAKER, Hunter —
The confluence of the Supreme Court's Obergefell v. Hodges decision (2015) on gay marriage and the unusual nature of the 2016 US presidential election presents American Christians with significant political questions. Obergefell's elevation of gay marriage to the status of a constitutional civil right put US law and Christian orthodoxy at loggerheads, raising serious issues with regard to the continued ability of religious organizations to participate in the not-for-profit sector and in higher education. At the same time, the nationalist turn of the the Republican party under D. Trump generated dissonance with Christian views of human solidarity. The new situation seems to shift the landscape of American politics and raises the possibility of new alternatives. Contributors to this symposium were asked to evaluate the prospects for an Americanized version of European Christian Democracy. [R, abr.] [First article of a symposium on “Christian Democracy and America”. See also Abstr. 67.1822, 2018, 2063, 2099, 2226, 2373]
67.1918 BALDERACCHI, Claudio —
Through the comparative analysis of the participatory mechanisms established in Bolivia, Ecuador and Venezuela, this study explores under which conditions such mechanisms are more likely to deepen or undermine democracy. While the informal participatory mechanisms established in Bolivia have produced, though imperfectly, significant democratic benefits, in Ecuador and Venezuela crucial participatory mechanisms have appeared to favor the concentration of power in the executive, contributing to the strangulation of representative institutions, the erosion of the separation of powers and the development of government-dominated social groups. By shedding light on the undemocratic manipulation of participatory mechanisms, an area still largely unexplored, this study contributes to a better understanding of the risks and opportunities associated with the deepening of democracy. [R]
67.1919 BANDA, Kevin K. —
I argue that citizens alter their views of candidates’ ideological and issue positions in response to two kinds of information cues: issue ownership and issue position cues. Issue ownership cues associate a candidate with the party that owns the issue discussed by a candidate. Issue position cues associate a candidate with the party that is linked to the position that the candidate discusses. These cues can either lead citizens to view the candidate as more or less extreme — both in terms of ideological and issue position assessments — than that candidate's party. When both types of cues are present, citizens should ignore the issue ownership cues in favor of the easier-to-process issue position cues. [R, abr.]
67.1920 BAUMGARTNER, Jody C. —
I present results from a conditional logit model of vice-presidential selection that predicts the selection of vice-presidential candidates for both H. Clinton and D. Trump in 2016. Examining contested major party vice-presidential nominations from 1960 through 2012, the model finds media exposure, political experience, military service, age, and demographic (gender/racial/ethnic) diversity to be significant factors in the selection process. In the end, the model correctly predicts 15 of the 21 (71.%) contested major party nominations during this period. For 2016 the model correctly and convincingly predicts M. Pence as D. Trump's selection, but incorrectly predicts C. Booker as H. Clinton's pick. [R, abr.]
67.1921 BEAUDETTE, Donald M.; KIRKPATRICK, Andrew B. —
How do varying levels of inter-group contact affect voter preferences in connection with ethnically radical political candidates and parties? Two competing hypotheses have emerged in the last 60 years: the first, known as the group threat hypothesis, argues that voters from an ethnic or religious group in more ethnically or racially heterogeneous districts will exhibit stronger preferences for ethnically radical political candidates. The contact hypothesis argues that groups living in mixed localities are actually less likely to support ethnic radicals. No previous study has offered a theoretical explanation for two seemingly contradictory conclusions. We specify just such a theory. We test this theory quantitatively using electoral data from Northern Ireland between 1983 and 2010. [R, abr.]
67.1922 BERMAN, Sheri —
European democracies are going through what may be their most difficult period since the Great Depression. Europe's mess can be traced to a number of distinct causes, but one that has been largely undervalued is the decline of the center- or social democratic left. This decline has hurt European democracy both directly, as many of these parties’ voters have fled to extremist parties, and also indirectly, for these parties played a crucial role creating and maintaining the postwar order upon which stable democracy was built. Absent a revivification of the center-left, it is hard to see how this order — and perhaps even well-functioning democracy generally — can be resuscitated in Europe. [R] [See Abstr. 67.2132]
67.1923 BERRY, Craig —
The article interrogates the character of recent governments’ approaches to industrial policy and manufacturing industries. It does so through the prism of Peter Hall's “three orders of policy change” framework, with particular reference to its application to macroprudential regulation by Andrew Baker. The article argues that the framework must be furnished with additional variables, namely, the type of institutional arrangements related to the policy area, and the status of the associated economic activities within the wider growth model, in order to better understand how ideas, institutions and interests interact in processes of policy change. The article finds little evidence of a “paradigm shift” and suggests that innovations in industrial policy have served to reinforce the foundational assumptions of the British growth model. [R, abr.]
67.1924 BERTSOU, Eri; PASTORELLA, Giulia —
This article revisits normative debates and hypothesizes that technocracy and democracy stand in a negative relationship in the eyes of European citizens. It tests this alongside a series of hypotheses on technocratic attitudes combining country-level institutional characteristics with individual survey data. While findings confirm that individual beliefs about the merits of democracy influence technocratic attitudes, two additional important factors are also identified: first, levels of trust in current representative political institutions also motivate technocratic preferences; second, historical legacies, in terms of past party-based authoritarian regime experience, can explain significant cross-national variation. The implications of the findings are discussed in the broader context of citizen orientations towards government, elitism and the mounting challenges facing representative democracy. [R, abr.]
67.1925 BLAIS, André; KILIBARDA, Anja —
While much research in organizational science and consumer behavior has assessed the precedents and consequents of regret, little attention has been paid to regret in political science. The study assesses the relationship between one of the most democratically consequential forms of political behavior — voting — and feelings of regret. We examine the extent to which citizens regret how they voted after doing so and the factors that might lead one individual to be more regretful than another. Relying on surveys in five different countries after 11 regional and national elections, we find not only that political information leads to a decrease in post-election regret, but also that having voted correctly, or having voted in accordance with one's underlying preferences regardless of information, similarly mitigates regret. [R, abr.]
67.1926 BLOM-HANSEN, Jens, et al. —
Candidates listed first on the ballot paper regularly receive more votes than other candidates, but what role does ballot layout play in this connection? Experimental studies from first-past-the-post systems show that the ballot position effect is causal as the order of names functions as a cue to voters. Does this also hold for PR systems where voters may vote for a party instead of a specific candidate? We identify a natural experiment in Danish local and regional elections involving more than 10,000 candidates on 103 different ballot papers using ballot layout to study ballot position effects. We find indeed, the ballot position/layout has a causal effect on election results in PR systems. [R, abr.]
67.1927 BODUSZYŃSKI, Mieczysław P. —
Iraqis of all ethnic and sectarian groups are fed up with the ineptitude and corruption of their political leaders and the institutions they control. Since 2015, they have turned out in record numbers to protest against their political elite. The protests that unfolded in 2015 and 2016 have highlighted two failings of Iraq's post-2003 “democratic” order: (1) the entrenchment of a corrupt “partyocracy” that has captured the state and deepened sectarian divisions, and (2) the weakness of state institutions and the absence of the rule of law that have encouraged widespread corruption and fostered broad popular distrust of the post-Saddam Iraqi state. [R]
67.1928 BOLLEYER, Nicole; WEEKS, Liam —
This paper examines patterns of intra-organizational evolution and reform of Fianna Fáil as a party organization before and after the 2011 Dáil election, widely considered an “earthquake election” that fundamentally undermined Fianna Fáil's status as the dominant party in the Irish party system. [Previous] reforms tended to be minor, as the party expected its opposition status to be temporary. This orientation changed after 2011, as the party's very foundation seemed threatened, having suffered a historic decline of its electoral support and membership. We argue that the post-2011 re-orientation can be usefully characterized as a movement away from organizational characteristics associated with the “cartel model of party organization” towards characteristics echoing more “traditional mass party structures”, an organizational model less dependent on state resources, and more able to generate loyalty through organizational means. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 67.1945]
67.1929 BONiKOWSKI, Bart; DiMAGGIO, Paul —
Despite the relevance of nationalism for politics and intergroup relations, sociologists have devoted surprisingly little attention to the phenomenon in the US, limiting their focus to specific forms of nationalist sentiment: ethnocultural or civic nationalism, patriotism, or national pride. This article innovates, first, by examining an unusually broad set of measures (from the 2004 GSS) tapping national identification, ethnocultural and civic criteria for national membership, domain-specific national pride, and invidious comparisons to other nations. Second, we use latent class analysis to explore heterogeneity, partitioning the sample into classes characterized by distinctive patterns of attitudes. Finally, using comparable data from 1996 and 2012, we find structural continuity and distributional change in national sentiments over a period marked by terrorist attacks, war, economic crisis, and political contention. [R, abr.]
67.1930 BORELL, Phillip —
Sport has influenced our national identity, as well as the identities of many who have participated in it. Although contemporary sporting cultures are often reflective of wider society, scrutiny of New Zealand sport, particularly rugby union, can reveal a closer link to our imperial history. Sports in New Zealand have provided a platform for social mobility for many Maori athletes. However, along with the achievements that have been available as a result of sporting prowess, there have also been more negative ramifications, including social control and constructed sporting and cultural identities. With a focus on two particular case studies from New Zealand's sporting history, this article discusses certain nuances of cultural politics in the realm of New Zealand sport. [R] [See Abstr. 67.1507]
67.1931 BOTELHO, Teresa —
The 2016 presidential campaign had been analyzed as a moment of almost incomprehensible paradox, as an exception in the American political ecosystem, threatening the history and internal coherence of the Republican Party, the relationship between its leadership and supporters, and its very future. This article problematizes this view, discussing the long roots of the American conservative populism, inside and outside the traditional party structures and analyzing moments of similar turbulence in the relationship between candidates embraced by the party leadership (the two first presidential campaigns of R. Reagan), sustaining the view that an analysis of D. Trump's assault on the Republican Party requires the consideration of elements of continuity and exceptionality. [R] [See Abstr. 67.2476]
67.1932 BOWLER, Shaun, et al. —
Right-wing populist parties tend to combine criticism of how liberal democracy functions with calls for greater direct democracy. But do their voters share that support for direct democracy? In this article, survey data is used to examine, first, whether right-wing populist candidates in Australia, Canada and New Zealand were more supportive of direct democracy than candidates of other parties. Second, the views of right-wing populist voters about the functioning of democracy and direct democracy are investigated. While right-wing populist candidates turned out to be far more likely to support direct democracy, right-wing populist supporters did not mirror the candidates. Although these were among the most dissatisfied with how democracy worked, they did not necessarily favor referendums more than other voters. [R, abr.]
67.1933 BRAINARD, Lori A. —
In recent decades, scholars and politicians have concerned themselves with how to more robustly engage people in public life. “Internet Utopians” have looked to various web technologies, including social media, to be helpful; even transformative. This article looks at extant research on which technologies governments in the US use, whether their use of technologies facilitates offline and online civic engagement, and the extent to which the government-citizen relationship has changed or may be changing. For Internet Utopians the picture is dismal, though not without some bright spots. This article ends with areas for future research. [R] [See Abstr. 67.1652]
67.1934 BRAUN, Daniela; HUTTER, Swen; KERSCHER, Alena —
How much and why do political parties emphasize Europe in election campaigns? This article contributes to the debate by highlighting the crucial difference between constitutive and policy-related European issues. Using data from the Euromanifestos Project for 14 EU member states for the period 1979–2009, we first show that Europe is much more salient in EP elections than previously assumed. Second, EU issue salience depends on party position and party system polarization over European integration. However, different explanations come into play once we bring in the polity-vs.-policy distinction. This has important implications for our understanding of party competition on European integration. [R, abr.]
67.1935 BROOCKMAN, David E; BUTLER, Daniel M. —
Influential theories depict politicians as, alternatively, strongly constrained by public opinion, able to shape public opinion with persuasive appeals, or relatively unconstrained by public opinion and able to shape it merely by announcing their positions. To test these theories, we conducted unique field experiments in cooperation with sitting politicians in which US state legislators sent constituents official communications with randomly assigned content. The legislators sometimes stated their issue positions in these letters, sometimes supported by extensive arguments but sometimes minimally justified; in many cases, these issue positions were at odds with voters'. An ostensibly unrelated survey found that voters often adopted the positions legislators took, even when legislators offered little justification. [R, abr.]
67.1936 BRUCHHAUSEN, Sarah; NAICKER, Camalita —
This article broadens perspectives on citizenship and democracy in postapartheid South Africa. The article focuses on two spaces within South Africa, which have specific significance for both land and labor questions in South Africa and where we have focused our research: Mpondoland in the Eastern Cape and Nkaneng Shack Settlement in Marikana. The links that can be made between the recent Marikana/Lonmin Strikes and the earlier Mpondo Revolts reveal a subaltern sphere of politics informed by older modes of political organization that challenge dominant institutions like civil society and traditional authorities. The article demonstrates that South Africa's land and agrarian questions must, of necessity, be linked to broader struggles for justice, dignity and humanity. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 67.2037]
67.1937 BUTTORFF, Gail; DION, Douglas —
The existence of authoritarian elections raises a number of questions regarding the strategies of political opposition. What explains the choice of strategy among key opponents of a regime? What determines when opposition groups willingly participate in elections and when they engage in electoral boycott? To understand the opposition's strategic choices, we develop a formal model of government-opposition interaction under authoritarianism. We contribute to the literature on election boycotts in emphasizing the effect of uncertainty about the strength of the regime on strategic decisions. The model produces predictions for several key features of authoritarian elections, including the decision to participate, boycott, and mobilize against the regime. Using the case of Jordan, we illustrate how the results of the model can be used to explain variation in opposition strategy across parliamentary elections. [R, abr.]
67.1938 BUZIN, Andrei; BRONDUM, Kevin; ROBERTSON, Graeme —
The literature on elections and election monitoring is divided between those who take a skeptical view and those who see monitors as a real force for cleaner, more honest elections. Studies that use field experiments to look for the effect of monitors generally support the optimists, indicating that the mere presence of election observers can have powerful effects. This is surprising given the extent of the resources available to incumbents who wish to conduct electoral fraud. We present the results of an experiment in which 768 observers were randomly assigned to polling stations in 21 cities in Russia in the 2011 parliamentary elections. Unlike most previous studies of election observers, our results suggest that observer effects on turnout and vote for the ruling party are small. [R, abr.]
67.1939 CABEZA, Laura; GÓMEZ, Braulio; ALONSO, Sonia —
This article demonstrates that regional branches of national parties do not limit regional election campaigns to regional issues. On the contrary, they nationalize regional elections (i.e., emphasize national-level issues in regional campaigns) as an electoral strategy to win votes. The empirical evidence comes from the quantitative content-analysis of regionallevel manifestos of the two main national parties in Spain, PP, and PSOE, between 1998 and 2015. The percentage of references to the national government is taken as an indicator of nationalization. We find that parties nationalize regional elections under two situations: when the national co-partisans are in office enjoying high levels of popularity or when the national co-partisans are in opposition and the nationally governing party is unpopular. [R, abr.]
67.1940 CAMERON, Angus; SMITH, Nicola; TEPE-BELFRAGE, Daniela —
The scholarship on the role of discourses in producing the neoliberal politics of austerity has [ignored] how the household might be implicated in such discourses. This article argues that the introduction of various austerity programs [since] 2009 has produced a new normalization of the British household, and that much of this centers on particular narratives surrounding the concept of waste. We contend that the language and politics of austerity are in part made possible through longstanding, historic discourses of household waste, and yet the concept of waste is being reconfigured and reimagined through the language of austerity. We argue that such discourses serve to naturalize the systemic inequalities and structural violences of neoliberal capitalism, for they render the poor both individually culpable for their own poverty and collectively culpable for Britain's economic and social crisis. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 67.2206]
67.1941 CAMPBELL, James E., ed. —
Editor's introduction, pp. 649–654. Articles by Helmut NORPOTH, “Primary model predicts Trump victory”, pp. 655–658; Alan I. ABRAMOWITZ, “Will time for change mean time for Trump?”, pp. 659–660; Michael S. LEWIS-BECK and Charles TIEN, “The political economy model: 2016 US election forecasts”, pp. 661–663; James E. CAMPBELL, “The trial-heat and seats-in-trouble forecasts of the 2016 presidential and congressional elections”, pp. 664–668; Robert S. ERIKSON and Christopher WLEZIEN, “Forecasting the presidential vote with leading economic indicators and the polls”, pp. 669–672; Brad LOCKERBIE, “Economic pessimism and political punishment”, pp. 673–676; Thomas M. HOLBROOK, “National conditions, trial-heat polls, and the 2016 election”, pp. 677–679; Bruno JÉRÔME and Véronique JÉRÔME-SPEZIARI, “State-level forecasts for the 2016 US presidential elections: political economy model predicts Hillary Clinton victory”, pp. 680–686; Andreas GRAEFE, et al., “The PollyVote forecast for the 2016 American presidential election”, pp. 687–690.
67.1942 CARLSON, Elizabeth —
Many studies in the African politics literature estimate the correlation between ethnicity and vote-choice using reported vote intentions from public opinion surveys. Yet, though we know questions related to ethnicity are sensitive in other contexts, there has been little investigation into whether or how survey conditions affect African respondents’ willingness to report a preference for candidates of their own ethnicities. Using a stated choice experiment to identify the characteristics that Ugandan voters value in presidential candidates, I show that ethnic voting is indeed sensitive: Respondents are less likely to report a preference for co-ethnic politicians when they report their preference publicly or when they have been made conscious of the ethnic connotations of their choice. [R, abr.]
67.1943 CARLSON, Taylor N.; SETTLE, Jaime E. —
Individuals do not always express their private political opinions in front of others who disagree. Neither political scientists nor psychologists have been able to firmly establish why this behavior occurs. Previous research has explored, at length, social influence on political attitudes and persuasion. However, the concept of conformity does not involve attitude change or persuasion; it more accurately involves self-censoring to match a socially desirable norm. In an effort to improve our understanding of this behavior, we conduct two experiments to investigate perceptions and behavioral responses to contentious political interactions. [R, abr.]
67.1944 CARNES, Nicholas; LUPU, Noam —
In most democracies, lawmakers tend to be vastly better off than the citizens who elect them. Is that because voters prefer more affluent politicians over leaders from working-class backgrounds? We report the results of candidate choice experiments embedded in surveys in Britain, the US, and Argentina. Using conjoint designs, we asked voters in these different contexts to choose between two hypothetical candidates, randomly varying several of the candidates’ personal characteristics, including whether they had worked in blue-collar or white-collar jobs. Contrary to the idea that voters prefer affluent politicians, the voters in our experiments viewed hypothetical candidates from the working class as equally qualified, more relatable, and just as likely to get their votes. Voters do not seem to be behind the shortage of working-class politicians. [R, abr.]
67.1945 CARTY, R. Kenneth —
Political scientists may have been using the wrong comparators: rather than considering Fianna Fáil as a catch-all party it is better understood as a “natural governing party”. This article situates Fianna Fáil in terms of the theoretical models that account for the essential nature of political parties and the working of the competitive systems they create; and then uses those insights to compare Fianna Fáil with other dominant center parties in Italy, Japan, India and Canada. It asks if Fianna Fáil is still the party it once was, and, if changed, with what consequences for our understanding of Irish politics. [R, abr.] [First article of a thematic issue on “Patriotism, pragmatism and power: Fianna Fáil 1926–2016”, introduced by Eoin O'MALLEY and Sean McGRAW. See also Abstr. 67.1928, 2100, 2127, 2143, 2145, 2148]
67.1946 CARVALHO, João —
This article explores the electoral development of an extreme-right party and the management of the contemporary asylum crisis in Europe by one of the member states of the EU, in particular France. With this purpose, the research examines the electoral development of the Front National and the ideological shifts within this party. The ambiguity identified on the management of asylum at the external level by President F. Hollande and the French government are associated with the electoral threat posed by M. Le Pen at the 2017 presidential election. [R] [See Abstr. 67.2241]
67.1947 CASAL BÉRTOA, Fernando —
Party (system) institutionalization has been traditionally considered to be a necessary, but not sufficient, condition for the survival of democracy. Few studies looking at the relationship between institutionalization and democratic endurance have found no evidence of the ‘almost magical’ powers of the former. This article revisits the above-mentioned research question by making use of an original dataset covering all European democracies between 1848 and 2014. The main findings are threefold: (1) it is not the institutionalization of political parties but the institutionalization of party systems as a whole that has fostered the prospects for democratic survival in Europe; (2) there is a threshold of systemic institutionalization which, once reached, will avoid democratic collapse; and (3) systemic over-institutionalization does not seem to be so perilous for the survival of democracy. [R, abr.]
67.1948 CAUGHELL, Leslie —
In the 2016 presidential campaign, Secretary H. Clinton appears to be emphasizing her gender [more] than she did in 2008, even invoking gender in primary debates as something that separates her from the political establishment. Her opponent in the general election, D. Trump, claimed that Clinton was playing the “woman card” and that Clinton has little to offer as a candidate beyond her sex. However, scholars have little sense of the effectiveness of playing the woman card by emphasizing the historic first associated with a candidacy, a strategy with inherent risks. This project examines the effect of playing the woman card by emphasizing the historic nature of a female executive candidate, and demonstrates that playing the woman card may actually benefit female candidates among certain subsets of voters. [R, abr.]
67.1949 CELIS, Karen; ERZEEL, Silvia —
Why have ethnic minority women — a group experiencing “double barriers” in society and politics — gained inroads into formal politics in Belgium more quickly than ethnic minority men? Our qualitative analysis of candidate-selection shows that political parties prefer ethnic minority women candidates because their “intersectional identity mix” is maximally complementary to groups embodied by the incumbents. It enables party selectors to maximize the representativeness of the list by including a limited number of newcomers. The groups that are able to cash in on such a “complementarity advantage” vary depending on the identity of the incumbents and the political salience of social groups’ identities. [R]
67.1950 CERON, Andrea —
Scholars have emphasized the need to deepen investigation of intraparty politics. Recent studies look at social media as a source of information on the ideological preferences of politicians and political actors. In this regard, the article tests whether social media messages published by politicians are a suitable source of data. It applies quantitative text-analysis to the public statements released by politicians on social media in order to measure intraparty heterogeneity and assess its effects. Three different applications to the Italian case are discussed. Intraparty divergences measured through social media analysis explain: (1) a politician's choice to endorse one or another party leader, (2) a politician's likelihood to switch off from his or her parliamentary party group; and (3) a politician's probability to be appointed as a minister. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 67.2139]
67.1951 CHANG, Eric C.C.; KERR, Nicholas N. —
This article addresses the puzzle of electoral support for corrupt politicians in emerging democracies by examining citizens’ varying attitudes toward political corruption. We make an important theoretical distinction between perceptions of and tolerance for corruption, and argue that these different attitudes vary across individuals depending on whether they are political insiders or outsiders. We test our theory using Afrobarometer survey data from 18 sub-Saharan African countries and find that individuals included within clientelistic networks simultaneously perceive corruption as ubiquitous and are more tolerant of malfeasance. Meanwhile, those individuals with partisan or ethnic ties to the incumbent are less likely to consider corruption as widespread. Finally, we explore whether variation in attitudes toward corruption influences citizens’ voting behavior, and find that insiders are less likely to “vote the rascals out”. [R]
67.1952 CHAR, James —
Since emerging as China's top leader following the 18th Party Congress, Xi Jinping has moved swiftly to consolidate his formal authority as Central Military Commission chairman over the Chinese People's Liberation Army. In redressing the civil-military imbalance wrought by Dengist economic reforms, the commander-in-chief has combined institutional mechanisms with the use of fear to impose authoritative civilian control over the military. This paper proposes that a combination of changes to the Chinese strategic environment has contributed to Xi's utility of the anti-corruption campaign to purge the regime's coercive forces of its previous underpinnings, and advances that the war on military malfeasance has given rise to a new set of dynamics in civil-military relations in post-Reform China. [R] [See Abstr. 67.1953]
67.1953 CHAR, James; BITZINGER, Richard A. —
Following the pivotal decision by China's last paramount leader to change the course of China's development in the latter years of the previous century, the People's Liberation Army (PLA) has undergone profound changes that have enabled it to transform itself more quickly than ever before. Under its current commander-in-chief, these developments have become more pronounced, with Xi Jinping taking a noticeably greater interest in harnessing the Chinese Communist Party's (CCP) coercive forces as his domestic powerbase and as a foreign policy instrument complementing his country's hard economic assets. Following the 18th Party Congress, reforms to the PLA's command and control functions have continued apace. It is thus timely to scrutinize the PLA's continued efforts to further enhance its operational capabilities. [R, abr.] [Introduction to a thematic issue of the same title. See also Abstr. 67.1952]
67.1954 CHARLES, Christopher A. D.; REID, Gleasia S. O. —
The article explains the methodologies and the findings of the 2016 Jamaican General Election forecasts. The Good Judgment Project's CHAMPSKNOW system was applied using qualitative and quantitative methods. The research question was: what were the probabilities of the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) or the People's National Party (PNP) winning the 25 February 2016 General Election? The data were drawn from election results and macro-economic variables from 1962 to 2015; polls from 1976 to 2016; campaign ads; election newspaper stories; constituency fund disbursements and independent surveys in marginal seats. [R, abr.]
67.1955 CHEIBUB, José A.; HAYS, Jude C. —
The view that multiparty elections in changing authoritarian regimes should be held sooner rather than later has been increasingly under attack. Critics argue that, under conditions of low institutional development, multiparty elections may lead to violence and civil war, rather than to the peaceful allocation of authority that everyone desires. Starting from the premise that elections are strategically timed and endogenous in transitioning authoritarian regimes, that is, more likely to be held when violence is imminent, we show that for Africa, the continent with the lowest levels of political institutionalization, elections do not increase the probability of a civil war initiation. In fact, for the post-Cold War period, the holding of multiparty elections is actually associated with a substantial reduction in the probability of civil war onset. [R, abr.]
67.1956 CHEN Jidong; XU Yiqing —
We develop a theory of how an authoritarian regime interactively uses information manipulation, such as propaganda or censorship, and policy improvement to maintain social stability. The government can depict the status quo policy more popularly supported than it actually is, while at the same time please citizens directly by enacting a costly reform. We show that the government's ability of making policy concessions reduces its incentive to manipulate information and improves its credibility. Anticipating a higher chance of policy concessions and less information manipulation, citizens are more likely to believe the government-provided information and support the regime. Our model provides an explanation for the puzzling fact that reform coexists with selective information disclosure in authoritarian countries like China. [R]
67.1957 CHEN Jowei; COTTRELL, David —
What is the effect of gerrymandering on the partisan outcomes of US congressional elections? The analysis reveals that while Republican and Democratic gerrymandering affects the partisan outcomes of Congressional elections in some states, the net effect across the states is modest, creating no more than one new Republican seat in Congress. Therefore, the partisan composition of Congress can mostly be explained by non-partisan districting, suggesting that much of the electoral bias in Congressional elections is caused by factors other than partisan intent in the districting process. [R, abr.]
67.1958 CHO Young Nam —
This article analyzes the “rule-of-law” policy, which the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) adopted as a principle of government at the 15th Party Congress in 1997. I investigate the emergence of rule-of-law policy and the context in which the CCP introduced it, then examine the concrete measures and actual implementation of the policy. I argue that the policy is the CCP's attempt to institutionalize its legal and performance legitimacy. The policy comprises several parts, including intraparty regulations, comprehensive law education for leading cadres, and the readjustment of party-legislative relations. However, the policy has serious problems and consequently has achieved limited results. [R]
67.1959 CHONG Dennis; LIU Mingxing; ZHANG Qi —
We create a collective resistance game in which elites control the distribution of resources if the masses are compliant. However, if the masses unanimously protest elite allocations, they can capture a greater share of resources for themselves. We study how Chinese villagers, randomly assigned to the role of elites and masses, play this game in repeated interactions under varying information conditions. We find significant variation in the extent to which participants gave weight in their decisions to (1) the amount of the elite allocation and (2) their beliefs about the likely choices of fellow group members. Many individuals made their decisions based primarily on the size of the elite allocation, choosing to protest if the elite offer fell below some threshold level. [R, abr.]
67.1960 CHRISTIAN, Ben —
This article studies campaign effects at the 2013 German Federal Election. It analyzes whether and how the 2013 campaign contributed to electors’ ability to cast votes in line with their political preferences — “correct” votes in the terminology of Lau and Redlawsk. The article takes a novel perspective at correct voting by analyzing its dynamic development during the course of an election campaign, using observational data collected by means of a rolling cross-section survey. It finds that voters’ likelihood to choose correctly significantly increased during the election campaign. Two campaign-induced processes in particular contributed to explaining this development: voters’ growing involvement with electoral politics and their decreasing indifference with regard to the parties competing for their votes. [R] [See Abstr. 67.1983]
67.1961 CLAASSEN, Ryan L.; RYAN, John Barry —
An emerging consensus suggests that women are underrepresented in government because of biases in the recruitment process instead of biases at the ballot box. These results, however, are largely for legislative offices, and research suggests that “male” characteristics are generally associated with executive positions like the presidency. At the same time, some research demonstrates social desirability masks gender biases against women who seek the highest office in the US. We use the historic candidacy of H. Clinton to examine if she faces hidden biases in either the primaries or the general election. Two different methods for uncovering hidden biases embedded in national surveys demonstrate small hidden biases that are likely electorally inconsequential. [R]
67.1962 COHEN, Marty, et al. —
Political scientists have devoted vastly more attention to [US] general presidential elections than to party nominations for president. This emphasis might be reasonable if parties could be counted on to nominate generic representatives of their traditions. But it is clear that they cannot. Since the party reforms of the 1970s, regulars like B. Clinton, B. Dole, and A. Gore have sometimes won fairly easy nominations, but outsider candidates like J. Carter and H. Dean have made strong runs or even won. 2016 has produced extremes of both types: ultimate regular H. Clinton on the Democratic side and far outsider D. Trump on the Republican side. We examine this question from the point of view of two well-known studies, Nelson Polsby's Consequences of Party Reform and our own, The Party Decides [Oxford, 1983]. [R, abr.]
67.1963 COOPER, Ian —
Africa's proliferation of dominant-party regimes is often regarded as an obstacle to democratization. Scholars and practitioners therefore face the task of understanding how and why constitutionally legitimate challenges to dominant party rule occur. This article asks: why do some presidential succession crises act as a catalyst to dominant party fragmentation when others do not? It argues that minority factions are more likely to defect from a dominant party when they have (1) been marginalized by the majority faction and (2) confidence in their mobilizational capacity. Factional purging is in turn traced to autocratic leadership and party under-bureaucratization, whilst high levels of factional self-confidence are linked to crises of dominance and the weakness of extant opposition parties. [R]
67.1964 CÓRDOVA, Abby; RANGEL, Gabriela —
In light of gender disparities in political involvement, extant research has examined mechanisms for incorporating ordinary women into politics. We complement this literature by exploring the effect of an overlooked institution theorized to promote political equality by maximizing voter turnout: compulsory voting. We theorize that in enforced compulsory voting systems, women are more likely to receive and seek information about electoral choices than their counterparts in voluntary voting systems. Consequently, compulsory voting helps narrow the gender gap beyond voting by creating opportunities and motivations for women to engage with the electoral process and its main actors. Countries with enforced mandatory voting laws display a much smaller gender gap not only in voting, but also in several other forms of electoral engagement. [R, abr.]
67.1965 COSTA LOBO, Marina —
This article analyzes the way in which attitudes towards the transition to democracy explain party identification and ideology in Portugal. This question is important because the transition to democracy in Portugal was a turbulent process marked by a rupture with the past and institutional fluidity. It has also conditioned the main political parties’ relationships with the electorate and each other since 1974. I compare the same explanatory model results from two surveys, conducted in 2004 and 2014, respectively, to understand the extent to which perceptions about the transition help characterize the Portuguese voter over the last decade. [R] [See Abstr. 67.2536]
67.1966 COULE, Tracey M.; BENNETT, Ellen —
Accounts of institutional change and categorization conventionally assume that high-status change agents can impose change, even to stable category systems, which lower-status actors accommodate in order to ensure social approval and material resources. By exploring the UK Conservative-Liberal Coalition's rhetorical efforts to reform the welfare state, how welfare providers are categorized and the subsequent response of implicated category members, we offer instead an account of institutional change that exposes the agentic limitations of high-status actors. While governments may well be in a position to impose changes in the formal rules of the game through manipulation of material resources (fiscal contraction, privatization, open markets, deregulation), we find that they cannot necessarily monopolize symbolic resources (identities/cultural features). [R, abr.]
67.1967 CROKE, Kevin —
This article presents evidence from Tanzania, a paradigmatic dominant party regime, to demonstrate how party institutions are used instrumentally to ensure the regime's sustained control. (1) I show that the ruling party maintains a large infrastructure of neighborhood representatives, and that in the presence of these agents, citizens self-censor about their political views. (2) I provide estimates of the frequency with which politicians give goods to voters around elections, demonstrating that such gifts are more common in Tanzania than previous surveys suggest. (3) I use a survey experiment to test respondents’ reaction to information about corruption. Few voters change their preferences upon receipt of this information. Taken together, this article provides a detailed picture of ruling party activities at the micro-level in Tanzania. [R, abr.]
67.1968 CROSS, William —
Political parties have long been identified as critical players in Canadian democracy. In this address I focus on the activities of parties at the constituency level arguing that this is crucial to fully understanding many important questions in Canadian political science. By way of example, using data relating to the 2015 federal election, I argue that examining the relative vitality of local party associations in the period between election campaigns assists in a fuller understanding of election outcomes and that examining local party nomination dynamics is key to understanding the underrepresentation of women in the candidate pool and ultimately in the House of Commons. [R]
67.1969 D'ELIA, Silvia —
This article explores how the democratization process in Turkey is relevant in procedural, substantive, and result terms. In the first part is undertaken a historical overview from the perspective of modernization and democratic consolidation carried out by Turkey, also on the basis of the ability to meet the requirements of the Copenhagen political criteria. The second part investigates eight dimensions in which democracy spreads its effects in order to assess the quality of democracy of Turkey. [R, abr.]
67.1970 DAHLBERG, Stefan; SOLEVID, Maria —
This paper investigates to what extent voters’ perceptions of political corruption affect turnout. In previous research, two opposing views are put forward with regards to the relationship between corruption and turnout. On the one hand, corruption increases turnout because voters either are bought off to participate or because they are mobilized on clean government issues. On the other hand, corruption decreases turnout because presence of corruption corrodes the political system which leads to general cynicism, distrust and voter apathy. We contribute to the existing research by adopting a multi-level approach to the relationship between corruption and turnout. [R, abr.]
67.1971 DARGENT, Claude —
Will the number of French Catholics voting for the National Front increase? Sociological studies moderate recent poll results. Apart from their hostility towards immigrants, a certain level of commitment to liberalism remains determining for the more observant Catholics. [R, transl.]
67.1972 DARGENT, Eduardo; MUÑOZ, Paula —
The April 2016 Peruvian election saw the triumph of former finance minister P. P. Kuczynski (PPK) in the close runoff against K. Fujimori, daughter of authoritarian president A. Fujimori (1990–2000). This election raises interesting questions for students of democracy that we [address]: what explains the strength and endurance of fujimorismo sixteen years after the collapse of this competitive authoritarian regime? Why did so many Peruvians support the daughter of a former dictator? Who makes up the anti-fujimorista coalition? Finally, given the fujimorista majority in Congress, how will Peru be governed in the upcoming term? [R]
67.1973 DEBUS, Marc —
By referring to the theoretical and empirical literature on “same gender voting” and the “modern gender gap”, this contribution aims to analyze whether gender played a role in party choice in Bundestag elections. We concentrate on the time period while A. Merkel was the chancellor candidate of CDU and CSU (2005, 2009 and 2013). The results of a dataset compiled from five German national election studies show that women were not more likely to opt for the CDU/CSU since the nomination of A. Merkel as chancellor candidate, nor were they less likely to vote for the Christian Democrats due to their rather conservative programmatic profile on the order of society. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 67.1983]
67.1974 DEETS, Stephen; SKULTE-OUAISS, Jennifer —
Drawing on theories and perspectives developed in the post-communist context, this article uses two recent events in Lebanon to reflect on the limits of elections and civil society to create a sense of engaged citizenship. The YouStink campaign illustrates the prospects and limitations of citizenship and accountability in the absence of elections, while the rise of Beirut Madinati helps illustrate the role or elections in divided societies without strong civic culture. The paper addresses both how the post-communist experience may elucidate Lebanon's trajectory as well as what Lebanon may say about concerns with democracy in Eastern Europe. [R] [See Abstr. 67.2377]
67.1975 DELFADO, Irene —
Research has shown that those who win an election are more satisfied with democracy than those who lost. The current study explores this winner/loser gap using survey data from the 2011 Spanish general election. The study assumes that there are different losers. The results indicate that citizen satisfaction with democracy shows a negative relationship with parties that are consistently unable to obtain office. The implication is that the effects of the winner-loser effects are much smaller within the group of parties that have previous experience in government. Finally, I report an independent effect that citizen government policy proximity boosts satisfaction with democracy. [R]
67.1976 DeWITT, Darin; SCHWARTZ, Thomas —
The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact (joined so far by ten states and DC) would replace the current [US] presidential-election system, based on the electoral college and the winner-take-all rule, with nationwide plurality rule, and it would do so by changes in state law, not a Constitutional amendment. The mischief that would create (especially procedural instability, noncompliant electors, nation-wide recounts, vote-manipulation, and narrowed support), the compact's questionable Constitutionality, the weakness of its defense, and the availability of less calamitous alternatives are reasons enough to reject it. [R] [See also John R. KOZA, “A not-so-calamitous compact: a response”, pp. 797–804; and the author's reply, pp. 805–806]
67.1977 DINCER, Oguzhan; JOHNSTON, Michael —
To what extent does variation in political culture influence the number and types of corruption issues arising in US states? Drawing upon D. Elazar's enduring typology of American political subcultures and using a new news-based measure of corruption issues, we find that political culture remains a “sticky” deep determinant of the distribution of corruption issues across states. Unlike previous empirical studies we do not treat political culture as a set of consensus values, but rather emphasize tensions that can arise when multiple political cultures coexist in a state. Our findings are of interest not only with respect to the enduring role of culture itself, but also in terms of how it might help us understand the growing number of actions that are legal, yet still seen by many as corrupt. [R]
67.1978 DIWAKAR, Rekha —
This paper discusses how a relatively new anti-corruption political party in India — the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) — was able to achieve an unprecedented electoral victory in the 2015 Delhi assembly election, comprehensively defeating the two national parties — the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Congress Party. Although Delhi is a small Indian state with limited powers, AAP's victory provides it with a platform to expand in other parts of the country. However, to do so, it will need to deliver effective governance in Delhi, enunciate a clearer ideology and develop credible regional leaders. As things stand now, the AAP could be characterized as a party whose appeal is more likely to be in the urban, media-thick Indian cities and towns than in the rural areas. [R, abr.]
67.1979 DJUPE, Paul A.; BURGE, Ryan P.; CALFANO, Brian R. —
While American clergy have been understood as political actors in some capacity, the precise understanding of their representation has been debated. We polled a sample of clergy in order to gauge the degree to which they are functionally and explicitly considered representatives of their congregations. From these data, 70% have been contacted by congregation members with political concerns and 40% consider themselves or believe they are considered by congregants as representatives to government officials. Several factors increase the probability that clergy take on a representative role including holding a high view of religious authority. Clergy also consider carefully their relationship with the congregation and community before taking on the role of representative, supporting the delegate model. [R, abr.]
67.1980 DOREY, Peter; DENHAM, Andrew —
The Labour leadership contest of 2015 resulted in the election of the veteran Left-wing backbencher, J. Corbyn. Yet Corbyn enjoyed very little support among Labour MPs, particularly as he was widely viewed as incapable of leading the Party to victory in the 2020 general election. The academic literature on Party leadership contests emphasizes the ability to foster unity, and thereby render a party electable, as two of the key criteria for electing a new leader. We argue that while these are the natural priorities of MPs when electing a new leader, in Corbyn's case, much of the extra-parliamentary Labour Party was more concerned about ideological conviction and purity of principles, regardless of how far these diverged from public opinion. [R, abr.]
67.1981 DOWDLE, Andrew J., et al. —
A number of scholars successfully modeled and predicted [US] presidential nomination outcomes from 1996–2008. However, dramatic changes occurred in subsequent years that would seem to make replicating these results challenging at best. Building on those earlier studies, we utilize a series of OLS models that included measures of pre-primary resources and early campaign successes or failures to forecast that H. Clinton and D. Trump would win the Democratic and Republican presidential nominations in 2016. This outcome suggests that some fundamental factors governing nomination outcomes have not changed despite the conventional wisdom. [R]
67.1982 DOYLE, Jessica Leigh —
Over the past few decades there has been a great deal of interest in the academic literature on the relationship between civil society organizations (CSOs) and the state, and the impact of state power on CSOs in the Middle East North Africa (MENA) region. Yet, despite this interest, very few detailed empirical explorations of these issues have been conducted to date. Of the detailed empirical work that does exist, none has focused on state-CSO relations in a democratic context in the MENA. This paper contributes to filling this gap by examining these relations and their implications in the Turkish context. More specifically, this paper explores the democratizing role of independent women's organizations in Turkey and the ways in which the state has sought to exert power over and control these organizations. [R, abr.]
67.1983 ELFF, Martin; ROSSTEUTSCHER, Sigrid —
The present article looks at the long-term and short-term changes in party choice and turnout in the social groups that traditionally formed the constituency of the main cleavage parties, the SPD and the CDU/CSU. In doing so, the article also examines whether and how these changes in party vote and electoral participation are related to cohort and period effects. Empirically, we show that a decline in the support for the SPD among the working class consists of both long-term and short-term components, but it does not lead to vote defection yet mostly to abstention from voting. Further it shows that the CDU/CSU is unaffected by the mobilization problems that plague Social Democracy in Germany. However, first long-term effects are visible across birth cohorts. Younger core religious groups are increasingly opting for other parties. [R, abr.] [First article of a thematic issue on “Parties and voters at the 2013 German federal election”, introduced, pp. 1–11, by Robert ROHRSCHNEIDER and Rüdiger SCHMITT-BECK. See also Abstr. 67.1913, 1960, 1973, 2016, 2045, 2159, 2173, 2175]
67.1984 EMANUELE, Vincenzo; MARINO, Bruno —
This article analyzes how personal vote shapes electoral competition and predicts electoral results in a regional de-institutionalized party system. After having analyzed the connection between unpredictable political environment and personal vote, we build an original empirical model that explores preferential vote and patterns of re-candidacies and endorsements of the most voted candidates in the Calabrian regional elections. The analysis shows that leading candidates retain a more stable and predictable support over time with respect to parties and that candidates and their system of interactions are able to predict the electoral results better than parties and their alliances. [R]
67.1985 ENDRES, Kyle —
Identifying voters who share policy positions with the candidates has become an important component of modern political campaigns as they rely on microtargeted estimates to guide targeting decisions. Using survey data and microtargeted estimates from the 2012 election, I conduct one of the first independent examinations of the accuracy of micro-targeting. The estimates are the most accurate in Florida, a state that requests information on the race of voters when they register and has party registration. The estimates are less accurate in the other battleground states that do not collect as much information. The accuracy rates range from 36% to 82% depending on the issue and state. [R]
67.1986 ENNSER-JEDENASTIK, Laurenz —
Building on the argument made by Mudde (2007) that socio-economic policies are secondary elements within the populist radical-right ideology, this paper conjectures that the primary elements of that ideology (nativism, authoritarianism, and populism) structure the PRRP's attitudes in the social policy domain. Based on a discussion of the PRRP's core ideology, a number of expectations are derived as to which groups should be viewed as deserving or undeserving of support. These expectations are examined through an analysis of the social policies put forward in the election manifestos of the Austrian Freedom Party (FPÖ) between 1983 and 2013. The analysis confirms most of the expectations and highlights an important shift in the FPÖ's social policy agenda, from welfare populist arguments and some retrenchment proposals to strong welfare chauvinism after the leadership change in 2005. [R, abr.]
67.1987 ENYEDI, Zsolt —
Voting Advice Applications (VAAs) are increasingly popular, yet little is known about their impact. This article investigates their influence on party choice, party loyalty and electoral participation, relying on a complex experiment conducted before and after the 2010 Hungarian election. Participants were directed to two VAAs, some received advice from one and some from both, while the control group visited none. According to subjective recollections, 7 per cent changed their vote intentions, but according to the panel study the VAAs were unable to direct users to specific parties. Sheer exposure to the advice did not have mobilizing or demobilizing effects either, but preference-confirming outputs increased party loyalty while preference-disconfirming recommendations decreased it, and double exposure amplified further the impact of the VAAs. Converging advice from two different sources increased the rate of electoral participation, but more by provoking, rather than by persuading, the users. [R]
67.1988 ERAKOVICH, Rod; KOLTHOFF, Emile —
This research seeks to understand influences on local government integrity development as a control of corruption. Using survey data from public managers in local governments in The Netherlands, Serbia, Montenegro, and the US, we examined three main areas: integrity policy, leadership, and organizational ethical climate. An important finding was that integrity policy comes from an indirect leadership effect that remains focused on a structural response as the primary source of ethical reasoning more than normative control. Clarity of decisions, consistency in the process of decision-making, and support for anticorruption efforts can be enhanced with a balanced approach to corruption control. [R]
67.1989 ERIBON, Didier —
The Alternative for Germany (AfD) and the Pegida movement (Patriotic Europeans Against the Islamization of the West) advocate the ban of migrants from German social welfare services. This racist “social jealousy” is neither new nor exclusive to Germany. The author describes the left-wing working-class environment in France in the 1970s and how it has shifted towards rightist positions. There is a widespread belief in this milieu that migrants take advantage of public support while the native population is abandoned by the state.
67.1990 ERIBON, Didier —
The increasing social divide in France is tilting working-class votes towards the far-right Front National to the detriment of the left. French philosopher D. Eribon, who comes from a working class background himself, believes that the cause lies in a cultural left which has failed to represent the interests of the most disfavored layers of society. While the left often takes the elite's point of view and preaches “reforms” such as “individual responsibility”, right-wing populists offer the disinherited the possibility to become political actors — as the ruling class's rivals. 2527]
67.1991 ERKEL, Patrick F.A. van; THIJSSEN, Peter —
Research has shown that in proportional, flexible list systems, ballot list position influences electoral success. We investigate to what extent this is due to the primacy effect, a psychological bias towards the first option in a list. We also examine alternative explanations such as the electoral beneficial traits these candidates share and extra media coverage they receive. Using data from the 2014 Belgian elections, we find that candidates with higher ballot list positions indeed score better because they have more political experience and receive more media attention. We also find strong evidence for the primacy effect which is caused by a confirmation bias as well as ballot list position being the easiest heuristic for voters. [R]
67.1992 ERNENWEIN, François —
Primaries today seem to have become an indispensable part of the preparation for a presidential election. Primaries are about allowing for the possibility to designate the figures among which the people shall then choose their president. A closer look at the history of primaries and the political context that has little by little installed them in the French political landscape allows for a better understanding of the many pitfalls that this innovation presents. [R, transl.]
67.1993 ESCHER, Tobias; RIEHM, Ulrich —
Petitions, as one of the most popular forms of political participation, offer citizens a bottom-up, comparatively low-effort means to communicate their wishes to politicians and the public. This article analyzes all steps of the petitions process to assess whether it provides all citizens with equal opportunities for participation as well as for realizing political voice, with a particular focus on the role of online petitions and the German Bundestag. By surveying hundreds of petitioners — both those using traditional paper petitions and those who use the internet to submit a petition — along with a representative survey of the population, this study confirms the traditional socio-demographic biases in participation. Online petitions attract younger people and support realizing voice through recruiting supporters but do not offer more equality in participation. [R, abr.]
67.1994 EVANS, Jocelyn; IVALDI, Gilles —
We look to forecast the number of seats the Front National (FN) will win in the 2017 [French] legislative election. We use the most recent subnational ballot, the 2015 regional election, to estimate support for the party, and model reallocation of first-round legislative votes in the second round by applying the pattern seen between the 2011 cantonal and 2012 legislative elections. Using different levels of turnout and four different scenarios of Left-bloc coalition arrangements, both of which strongly influence how the FN performs in run-off ballots, we estimate that a likely, but conservative, scenario would result in 29 FN seats, if a similar pattern to 2011–2012 obtains. This number of seats would allow the FN to form a Parliamentary group in the National Assembly. [R]
67.1995 EVANS, Mary —
The relationship of women to conditions of material austerity is often characterized as having two main themes: women as recipients of charity and the question of which women are entitled to various forms of charitable and state assistance. This paper discusses the ways in which discourses about women and charity are z women have to be “good” and “respectable” in order to deserve public assistance. In the concluding section, the paper considers the ways in which women's “respectability” has become associated with participation in the labor market, and the various ways in which this constitutes a new form of the “deserving” female poor. [R] [See Abstr. 67.2206]
67.1996 FARHAT, Nadim —
The question of timing is treated here in its relation to violence in the context of two protracted histories of conflict, those of Lebanon and Belgium. The analysis is based on the notion of repertoire of conflict that designates the historically accumulated means of action, accessible in the present to a pair of actors and among which these actors draw the domination form of their confrontation. Comparing across more than a century the evolution of the privileged means of action in both cases, it appears that the mobilization of Lebanese and Belgian contemporary communal actors embrace the same features of the repertoires inherited from the 19th c. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 67.2325]
67.1997 FESNIC, Florin N. —
Civic education can have a significant impact on democracy. This article offers evidence for this assertion by comparing the effects of the widely different choices made in the early 1990s by two post-communist countries: Poland and Hungary. Initially, the effects of civic education were confined to teenagers; later, as generational replacement started to have an effect, one can see an impact on the politics of the two countries. The success of civic education in Poland and its failure in Hungary is illustrated by the differences in young people's voting patterns: throughout the last decade, the vote of Polish youth has consistently been less authoritarian than the vote of older Poles, unlike in Hungary, where the pattern is reversed. Ultimately, these developments likely had an impact on democracy: one sees democratic progress in Poland and democratic regression in Hungary. [R, abr.]
67.1998 FILALI-ANSARY, Abdou —
This article calls attention to the declaration by Tunisia's Ennahda (Renaissance) party that it would abandon the traditional connection between religion and politics in Muslim contexts and instead engage in new approaches to politics based on a separation of activism from predication. The significance of this decision is discussed against a backdrop of the political history of Muslims and the thinking that has prevailed among most Muslims in the name of their religion. The article identifies some of the serious challenges that arise when secularism is supported by civil society rather than imposed by the army or a militant movement. [R]
67.1999 FINK-HAFNER, Danica —
Although there are numerous definitions of populism, the distinction between the different forms of populism in relation to changing forms of societies has not yet been conceptualized. Such a typologization requires a focus on changes in political paradigms relating to changing forms of societies, and on particular reactions to processes of globalization. It is argued that adopting this approach can make research more precise both in studying a single country and for comparative crosscountry research. We report on development and testing of conceptualizations of pre-modern, modern national, authoritarian national and post-modern populism with reference to the case of Slovenia, a society which has recently undergone dynamic change. [R]
67.2000 FISHER, Patrick I. —
This study analyzes the important role [US] state political culture played in the race for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination. D. Trump appealed to demographically distinct types of voters in the 2016 Republican presidential primaries and caucuses that varied considerably from previous Republican presidential nominees. Relative to the demographics of the primary electorates, however, this study finds that state political culture played an outsized role in determining D. Trump's relative level of support in a particular state. When state demographics are utilized in ordinary least squares regression models as independent variables with state partisanship and D. Elazar's state political culture typology, political culture proves to be a significant determinant of the level of support given to Trump in a state. [R, abr.]
67.2001 FLAVIN, Patrick; SHUFELDT, Gregory —
We examine the effects of competition on [US] citizens’ political attitudes from 1952 to 2008. Our analysis reveals that citizens feel government is more responsive to them when there is greater competition between the two parties for control of government in their state. However, this relationship is confined only to citizens who identify with the party that controls government in their state. We also find that the relationship between competition and efficacy is strongest among citizens with lower levels of education and income. These results suggest that vigorous competition for control of state government can have important implications for citizens’ political attitudes. [R, abr.]
67.2002 FLOWERDEW, John —
This article is conceptualized within the framework of a historiographical approach to critical discourse-analysis. It focuses on a critical moment in Hong Kong's socio-political development, the Occupy movement, and a specific language event, an interview on a local Hong Kong English-language television program discussing the rationale for the movement. A micro-analysis of the interaction focuses on important features of the historical context, intertextual links, the backgrounds and the roles of the participants, and the argumentations strategies used by them. The article shows how a focus on a critical moment in discourse can shed light on the bigger socio-political picture and how arguments regarding particular topics may reflect larger ideological struggles, the political agendas of different groups, and the ways arguments are constructed dialogically. [R, abr.]
67.2003 FOMINA, Joanna; KUCHARCZYK, Jacek —
The 2015 victory of Poland's Law and Justice (PiS) party is an example of the rise of contemporary authoritarian populism. The PiS's rise can be attributed to a cultural backlash against “long-term ongoing social change”, and not, as the “Poland in ruins” theory holds, against trenchant inequality or downward mobility. Despite its limited core electorate and by virtue of a number of distinct factors, the PiS gained a parliamentary absolute majority; it has since drawn on this majority to dismantle democratic checks and balances. PiS's policies have led to intensifying xenophobia, aggressive nationalism, and unprecedented polarization that have engendered deep splits within Polish society and have given rise to social protest movements not seen in Poland since 1989. [R] [See Abstr. 67.2132]
67.2004 FOX, Sean; JOHNSTON, Ron; MANLEY, David —
The distribution of voting rights in the UK is an artifact of history rather than a product of clear legal or philosophical principles. Consequently, some resident aliens (i.e., immigrants) have the right to vote in all UK elections; others can vote in local elections but are excluded from national elections; still others are excluded from all elections. In England and Wales alone, roughly 2.3 million immigrants are excluded from voting in national elections. This exclusion is inconsistent with the founding principle of democracy and distorts political discourse. What if all immigrants could vote in national elections? We estimate that up to ninety-five parliamentary seats could have been won by a different party in the 2015 general election. More substantially, enfranchising all immigrants would require re-drawing UK constituency boundaries. [R, abr.]
67.2005 FRANCO, Massimo —
The 2016 US presidential election was uncomfortable for the Vatican and the American bishops. [R]
67.2006 FRAUSSEN, Bert; HALPIN, Darren —
Any democratic society requires mechanisms for citizens to have effective political voice. Clearly, political parties provide a key channel for expressing views and preferences. However, organized interests provide another important mechanism for such representation. A crucial question in this regard is whether the interest group system is capable of ensuring the representation of a variety of public and private interests. Resolving these debates requires data that map the terrain and also are attentive to organizational diversity. This article takes up this challenge through exploring the composition and diversity of the Australian system of organized interests, using a new data set based on the Directory of Australian Associations. [R, abr.]
67.2007 FREDE, Britta —
Mauritania strongly suffers from maladministration and environmental catastrophes, but since the military putsch of 2005, it is slowly moving towards democracy, economic growth and better integration of marginalized population groups. [R, transl.] [See also Abstr. 67.2612]
67.2008 FUKUMOTO, Kentaro; HORIUCHI, Yusaku —
Although numerous get-out-the-vote field experiments have identified the effects of “particular” mobilization tactics (e.g., canvassing, phone calls, direct mails) on voter turnout, we do not yet have a full understanding of the causal effect of “overall” mobilization. We study this by leveraging a natural experiment in Japan, in which the timing of a municipal election is as-if randomly assigned. The results show that almost concurrently held municipal elections boost these municipalities’ voter turnout in prefectural elections by one to two percentage points. We argue that some unique settings in Japan allow us not only to mitigate omitted variable bias but also to attribute the estimated effect only to mobilization, rather than the effects of cost sharing and psychological stimulus. [R]
67.2009 GANEV, Venelin I. —
This article explores the various ways in which K. Dawisha's book Putin's Kleptocracy [New York, 2014] improves our understanding of the impact of elite behavior on post-communist politics. It focuses specifically on the modes of agency whereby V. Putin and his collaborators transposed cultural schemas, mobilized polysemic resources and launched concrete projects. The text also offers an analysis of the Putin clique's modus operandi, and in particular of how knowledge about Western legal and illegal economic practices is utilized and how the preference for secret actions affects Russian political elites’ capacity to form alliances with important social constituencies. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 67.2377]
67.2010 GARCIA-VIÑUELA, Enrique; JURADO, Ignacio; RIERA, Pedro —
This paper analyzes which districts are targeted by Spanish political parties in their electoral campaigns. We find that the major Spanish parties — PP and PSOE — mobilize districts where they are more likely to win a new seat or are in danger of losing one they already hold. The predicted closeness of the district race is more relevant in the smallest districts. We also find that Spanish parties mobilize their strongholds. We suggest that, apart from the pure office-seeking strategies, political finance motivations might also play a role in the mobilization choices made by Spanish party elites. [R]
67.2011 GERLACH, Julia —
Several factors have contributed to Tunisia's better position in comparison with other countries of the region. Of all these, a strong civil society and the participation of women are the true secrets of Tunisia's success. [R, transl.] [See also Abstr. 67.2612]
67.2012 GEYS, Benny; MAUSE, Karsten —
In modern democracies, politicians’ accountability is often linked to the disciplining mechanism of electoral control. For politicians in their final term, this mechanism is impaired. Using a novel data set covering 910 members of the UK House of Commons active within the period 1997–2010, we investigate how reduced electoral control affects last-term MPs’ trade-off between work effort inside parliament, leisure, and outside interests. Our main contributions lie in providing the first explicit consideration of (1) MPs’ final-term intra-/extraparliamentary work balance and (2) MPs’ reasons for leaving parliament (i.e., retirement, career change, electoral defeat). These extensions provide important fresh insights concerning the boundaries of elections’ disciplining power. [R]
67.2013 GHERGHINA, Sergiu —
Research on immigrants’ political participation paid little attention to cross-national comparisons between first-generation immigrants coming from one country. To fill this empirical void, this article identifies the determinants of Romanian labor migrants’ political participation in France, Germany, Italy, and Spain. It argues and tests the effect of individual orientations, attitudes, social interaction, and resources. The data come from a web survey conducted in the summer of 2013. The empirical results show that, with small country-level variations, the political participation is a function of membership in organizations, a longer period of stay, the size of immigrants’ social network, and education. [R]
67.2014 GHERGHINA, Sergiu; VOLINTIRU, Clara —
The study of clientelism has pointed in the direction of a pyramid structure in which selective benefits are distributed with the help of brokers to individuals or groups in exchange for political support. This approach treats the resources aimed to enhance electoral mobilization as endogenous and fails to explain what happens when brokers have very low capacity. To address these problems this article proposes a bidimensional model of clientelism that emphasizes the role of exogenous resources. Accordingly, the vertical linkage between political parties and the electorate is complemented by a horizontal nexus between parties and private contributors. In an environment characterized by low internal resources, parties involve external actors to get the necessary money. We focus on Romania between 2008 and 2012. [R]
67.2015 GIANNETTI, Daniela; PINTO, Luca; PEDRAZZANI, Andrea —
Compared to other aspects of agenda control, the organization of legislative calendars has received scarce scholarly attention. However, setting the floor timetable affects parliament's decisions and may therefore become crucial for understanding the policy-making process better. This article examines the allocation of speaking time for plenary debates on bills by combining an interparty perspective with a focus on the agenda-setting powers of collective directing bodies in the parliament. It shows that, due to time pressures, parties have to make explicit trade-offs among bill proposals. Using an original dataset including information about 472 bill proposals scheduled for floor debates in three Italian legislative terms in the period 2001–2013, the article provides evidence that parties agree to schedule longer debates for divisive and salient issues, while they decide to move more quickly on less divisive proposals. [R]
67.2016 GIEBLER, Heiko; WESSELS, Bernhard —
For the personal vote to be cast in a meaningful way it is a minimal condition that voters recognize candidates. However, from earlier studies we know that there is huge variation in the number of candidates recognized. Little to nothing is known about candidate recognition and its determinants. This study explores the sources of candidate recognition from three different angles: candidates; citizens; and context. Furthermore, it enables the distinction of campaign-related from other factors. A unique multi-level within-subject design was set up for the analyses of the 2013 German Federal Election to ensure a meaningful validation of our theoretical framework. Our results suggest that, indeed, many factors lead to recognition but as well that earlier studies overestimated the effects of political interest or incumbency status. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 67.1983]
67.2017 GIFFORD, Chris —
This article explores how a political economy approach can explicate recent events in the UK's relation to the EU. The proposition is that neither critical nor comparative approaches do justice to the extent to which British elites have sought to differentiate the UK from the EU. The UK is here understood as a Euroskeptic political economy, constructed in opposition to European integration and, in particular, Economic and Monetary. The article explores how we have witnessed a hardening of this Euroskeptic political economy in the context of the Eurozone crisis. The most distinctive feature of which, as seen in the referendum campaign, is the extent to which the economic case for withdrawal has been established as part of the mainstream of British political debate. [R]
67.2018 GILL, Anthony —
Christian Democracy is often championed as a romantic means of bringing ethical considerations for the common good into the daily life of politics. Public choice theory, on the other hand, reveals that the search for the common good is quixotic amidst divergent policy preferences within a nation. While a handful of values may be accepted by nearly all citizens (e.g., prohibitions on murder), more mundane policy choices will likely promote differences of opinion. Given the often arbitrary nature of voting procedures, the ability of one faction to manipulate the vote-choice, and the self-interested behavior of politicians to be re-elected, political parties will inevitably alienate some portion of the citizenry. Attaching Christianity to short-term political outcomes serves to undermine its long-term goal of promoting God's mission. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 67.1917]
67.2019 GOLDRING, Edward; WAHMAN, Michael —
The elections were significant for several reasons: It was the first contest under a newly amended Constitution, which introduced important changes to the electoral framework. It also marked a break with Zambia's positive historical record of arranging generally peaceful elections. Moreover, the election featured an electoral playing field that was notably tilted in favor of the incumbent party. Ultimately, the incumbent president, E. Lungu of the Patriotic Front, edged out opposition challenger H. Hichilema of the United Party for National Development. The election was controversial and the opposition mounted an unsuccessful legal challenge to the final results. The 2016 elections represent a reversal in the quality of Zambian democracy and raise questions about the country's prospects for democratic consolidation. [R, abr.]
67.2020 GOLOOBA-MUTEBI, Frederick; SJÖGREN, Anders —
This article analyzes violent political revolt in Uganda under the National Resistance Movement government. It argues that the earlier prevalence of rural rebellions can be explained by the combination of a coercive and militarized state, and weak and ethnically factionalized political forces who took their violent resistance to rural regional bases. Over time, however, government counter-insurgency became more effective and the conditions for insurgency were undermined by withdrawal of external support. Furthermore, the reintroduction of multi-party politics in 2005 opened up new avenues for political expression. The changes to the political system were, however, more nominal than real in many respects. [R, abr.]
67.2021 GOMES ANDRÉ, José —
This article deals with the electoral year of 2016 in the US, especially the presidential election. We describe the fundamental characteristics of the “primary elections”, in a historical and methodological perspective, followed by a commentary of the results. The next section evaluates prospectively the chances of the candidates in the elections in November (to the White House and Congress). In the [end], we analyze the main topics of the presidential campaign and the proposals of H. Clinton and D. Trump in five areas: economy, foreign policy, justice, immigration, and healthcare. [R] [See Abstr. 67.2476]
67.2022 GOREN, Paul —
This paper argues that two socially focused values — self-transcendence and conservation — guide opinion formation across all major policy domains. By contrast, the personally focused values of self-enhancement and openness-to-change should play a more limited role in preference formation. These hypotheses are tested using data from a novel 2011 national survey and the 2012 General Social Survey. The statistical results affirm expectations. We show that self-transcendence and conservation values predict scores on symbolic ideology, economic conservatism, racial conservatism, cultural conservatism, civil liberties, and foreign policy opinions. Self-enhancement and openness-to-change values play a modest role in shaping preferences. [R, abr.]
67.2023 GRAHAM, Suzanne; GRAHAM, Victoria —
There are six African small island developing states: the Comoros; Guinea-Bissau; Cabo Verde; Mauritius; the Seychelles and São Tomé and Príncipe. Apart from Mauritius, the other five states are relatively new to democracy with several of these states only transitioning from one-party states to multi-party states in the early 1990s. International and domestic observers declared the last round of elections in all ASIDS free and fair, but this reveals little of their quality. All six states are members of the African Union (AU) and are therefore obliged to adhere to its election principles. This article examines the quality of elections in the ASIDS by analyzing the extent to which they are free and fair using the principles of the AU's Declaration on the Principles Governing Democratic Elections in Africa. [R, abr.]
67.2024 GREENE, Zachary; HABER, Matthias —
Parties coordinate on a range of activities. They invite leaders from other parties to their national meetings, run joint electoral platforms and even form parliamentary factions and coalition governments. The implications of regular cooperation such as the case of pre-electoral coalitions (PECs) for party positioning are unexplored. Parties form PECs to reduce competition for voters with ideologically close competitors and to signal their ability to cohesively govern. Building on this logic, we argue that parties’ preferences converge in PECs to demonstrate their ability to govern together and diverge when parties observe that this tactic has failed to attract voter support in past elections. We demonstrate support for our approach using data on electoral coalition participation, party positions and parties’ internal speeches. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 67.2139]
67.2025 GREENSTEIN, Anat, et al. —
This article explores how the “Bedroom Tax” works materially and discursively to create certain types of individuals and families as valued and deserving, while portraying others as excessive, wasteful or discretionary. It draws on a qualitative study project (J. Bragg, et al., [The Impacts of the Bedroom Tax on Children and Their Education: A Study in the City of Manchester, Manchester,] 2015) which generated accounts from 14 families impacted by the policy, as well as 39 interviews with key workers in local schools, charities and community organizations. It explores how particular gendered understandings of care and kinship are constructed, regulated, penalized, and performed via the Bedroom Tax, and how these impact on the everyday lives of families subject to the subsidy removal, and beyond this also to their neighbors and neighborhoods. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 67.2206]
67.2026 GRIMSON, Alejandro —
Argentina is currently in a process of decisive change. President M. Macri is carrying out a fundamental review of his Peronist predecessors’ social policy. Contrary to what might appear to be the case, Argentinians definitely did not agree to take the path towards neo-liberalism in the 2015 election. [R, transl.] [See also Abstr. 67.2529]
67.2027 GRODSKY, Brian —
When some members of yesterday's opposition organizations enter the state upon democratic breakthrough, does this empower or weaken the mission of the organizations left behind? I leverage the existing interdisciplinary social movement literature to create a series of forward-reaching arguments, based on identities, networks and opportunity structures. In the context of current studies, each of these factors should provide advantage to organizations with colleagues now in the state. By contrast, I argue that identities and personal networks developed during the struggle provide movement activists with opportunities to influence minor issues, but that new and differing institutional pressures create schisms on broader policy that turn prior bonds into a liability rather than an asset. I use elite interviews and media analyses in the case of post-democratic breakthrough Poland. [R, abr.]
67.2028 GROSS, Justin H.; JOHNSON, Kaylee T. —
What drives candidates to “go negative” and against which opponents? Using a unique dataset consisting of all inter-candidate tweets by the 17 [US] Republican presidential candidates in the 2016 primaries, we assess predictors of negative affect online. Twitter is a free platform, and candidates therefore face no resource limitations when using it; this makes Twitter a wellspring of information about campaign messaging, given a level playing-field. Moreover, Twitter's 140-character limit acts as a liberating constraint, leading candidates to issue sound bites ready for potential distribution not only online, but also through conventional media, as tweets become news. We find tweet negativity and overall rate of tweeting increases as the campaign season progresses. [R, abr.]
67.2029 GSÄNGER, Matthias —
This paper questions to what degree new elements of democratic order have been developed in the Indian discourse of the 1920s–1940s, elements that go beyond the liberal standard model of democracy. I assume that the main innovations lie in the special group rights debated in this discourse. The standard liberal model knows only individuals as bearers of rights. In the text, contributions of Gandhi, Nehru and Ambedkar to the Indian discourse are analyzed. Which challenges to Indian society did they perceive, and how did they intend to react to them by using the means of democracy? How should democracy be shaped with respect to the Indian culture and the connected societal constellations? [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 67.1592]
67.2030 GUINAUDEAU, Isabelle; PALAU, Anna M. —
This article argues that external factors of EU coverage in the media need to be reassessed against domestic factors, in particular how parties modulate media attention to EU affairs. We explain which parties may set the EU on the media agenda, and how parties interact with events depending on the level of conflict over EU issues. Drawing on the first long-term analysis of partisan agenda-setting of EU affairs in the media — based on ARIMA time-series models of monthly data collected for six newspapers from 1990 to 2015 — we determine the scale of partisan agenda-setting and find partial support for our model. Political parties do not face the intrusion of EU issues, but some of them are actively involved in this process. [R]
67.2031 GUR, Serap —
The Egyptian parliamentary election was held in two phases in late 2015. Egyptians cast their votes in the first phase on October 17 and 18, and in the second phase on December 1 and 2. The overall turnout rate was 28.3 percent. A total of 560 candidates secured seats-322 independent and 238 party-affiliated. The remaining 28 candidates were appointed by President Sisi. Traditionally, majority parties have ruled the parliament; however, in this election, independent candidates secured the majority of the seats. Most of the parliamentary seats were obtained by the supporters of Sisi. The only positive aspect of this election was the rise of previously sidelined groups: 87 women and 36 Christian Copts secured seats. [R, abr.]
67.2032 HA, Jae Sik; SHIN, Donghee —
This study explored how the Arab Spring coverage by South Korean newspapers was influenced by the ideological orientations of those newspapers. Employing quantitative content-analysis of the news stories, it compared the coverage by two major conservative papers (The Chosun Daily and The Joongang Daily) and two major liberal papers (The Hankyoreh Daily and The Kyunghyang Daily). The findings show that the partisanship of these newspapers resulted in divergence of the news framing by the conservative and liberal papers. Specifically, the liberal papers tended to present the Arab uprisings as being due to economic insecurity, including factors such as poverty, unemployment, and income inequality — more frequently than did the conservative papers. [R, abr.]
67.2033 HANKLA, Charles R.; MANNING, Carrie —
We examine the impact of elected local government on national politics, a subject that has been largely neglected in the decentralization literature. We theorize that the creation of locally elected government has the potential to alter contestation at the national level. It can do so by (1) incentivizing more democratic structures within existing national parties, (2) leading to the creation of new parties with more local power bases, (3) helping shift political discourse toward “bread and butter” governance issues, and (4) encouraging cooperation among parties that must now share power. A preliminary, fieldwork-based test of the theory in Mozambique provides support for the first three of our arguments. [R, abr.]
67.2034 HANSEN, Jonas Hedegaard —
Residential mobility has substantial negative effects on voter turnout. However, existing studies have been unable to disentangle whether this is due to social costs, informational costs or convenience costs that are related to re-registration. This article analyzes the relevance of the different costs by studying the effect of moving and reassignment to a new polling station in an automatic registration context and using a register-based panel dataset with validated turnout for 2.1 million citizens. The negative effect of moving on turnout does not differ substantially depending on the distance moved from the old neighborhood and it does not matter if citizens change municipality. Thus, the disruption of social ties is the main explanation for the negative effect of moving on turnout. [R, abr.]
67.2035 HARRIES, Matthew —
The challenges of negotiating Brexit are daunting. As such, it does not bode well that Britain's post-referendum politics have been so bitter, polarized and volatile. [R]
67.2036 HARRISON, Brian F.; MICHELSON, Melissa R. —
Public opinion tends to be stable. Once formed, attitudes are persistent and endure over time at both the individual and the aggregate levels. Attitudes toward marriage equality, however, have changed rapidly in recent years. This article posits that this is partly due to people learning that other members of their in-groups are supporters; they then alter their own opinions to be consistent with those of other in-group members. The authors tested this theory using a set of randomized survey experiments that shared identities as fans of professional football. When fans learn — sometimes unexpectedly — that other fans or athletes are supporters of marriage equality, they are motivated to agree in order to further normalize their membership in those sports-fan groups. [R]
67.2037 HELLIKER, Kirk; VAN DER WALT, Lucien —
For decades, most anti-capitalist and anti-imperialist movements identified radical social transformation with the capture of state power. The collapse of supposedly enabling states led recently to a crisis of left and working class politics. But this has also opened space for the rediscovery of society-centered, anti-capitalist modes of bottom-up change, labeled as “at a distance” politics. These modes have registered important successes in practice, such as the Zapatistas in Mexico, and have involved strands of anarchism and syndicalism, and autonomist Marxism. This article, an introduction to a collection of papers emerging from a 2012 conference of academics and activists in South Africa, helps articulate an understanding of social transformation from below that has been analytically and politically side-lined not only in South Africa (and Zimbabwe), but globally. [R, abr.] [Part of a thematic issue on “Politics at a distance from state”, edited by the authors. See also Abstr. 67.1305, 1534, 1630, 1936, 2216]
67.2038 HIDALGO, F. Daniel; CANELLO, Júlio; LIMA-de-OLIVEIRA, Renato —
To enhance government accountability, reformers have advocated strengthening institutions of “horizontal accountability”, particularly auditing institutions that can punish law-breaking elected officials. Yet, these institutions differ in their willingness to punish corrupt politicians, which is often attributed to variation in their degree of independence from the political branches. Taking advantage of a randomized natural experiment embedded in Brazil's State Audit Courts, we study how variation in the appointment mechanisms for choosing auditors affects political accountability. We show that auditors appointed under few constraints by elected officials punish law-breaking politicians — particularly co-partisans — at lower rates than bureaucrats insulated from political influence. In addition, we find that even when executives are heavily constrained in their appointment of auditors by meritocratic and professional requirements, auditors still exhibit a pro-politician bias in decision-making. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 67.1389]
67.2039 HIJINO, Ken Victor Leonard —
In recent years, the Japanese conservatives’ dominance in local politics appears to be less of an asset, as traditional analyses claim, and more of a liability. This article argues that the LDP's entrenched local party organizations have become a restraint on party leadership in pursing key national policy initiatives. [R]
67.2040 HOLBROOK, Donald —
At a time when political debate in the West is preoccupied with the perceived impact of extremist ideas on individuals who embrace or support terrorism, this article uses the publicly articulated grievances of A. al-Zawahiri, Al-Qaeda's most prolific ideologue, as a case study to examine how a globally focused and distributed extremist narrative matches political realities on the ground. The article compares two political processes: the approach of Islamist extremists, as represented by Zawahiri, to constitutional reform as articulated through public appeals to potential supporters, versus the reality of constitutional amendments and evolution of fundamental law in the Middle East and South Asia. This is an effort to dissect the public relations of an international terrorist movement. [R, abr.]
67.2041 HOOGHE, Marc; STIERS, Dieter —
We rely on a unique Belgian panel study to ascertain how electoral participation has an effect on political trust. The results show that in a proportional system all voters rise in political trust following their participation in elections. The winner-loser effect is not significant. Furthermore, the analyses suggest that especially the respondents with the initially lowest trust levels gain most by participating in elections. The theoretical implication of this finding is that apparently elections are still considered to be an important and legitimate linkage mechanism between citizens and the political system. [R, abr.]
67.2042 HOROWITZ, Jeremy; LONG, James —
This paper explores the conditions under which voters in emerging democracies support non-viable candidates. We argue that cognitive biases and the geographic clustering of minor-party supporters in ethno-political enclaves lead to misperceptions about the electoral prospects of minor-party candidates, weakening strategic defections both among co-ethnic and non-co-ethnic supporters. We explore these arguments using original survey data from Kenya's 2007 presidential election, a contest that featured a minor-party candidate, K. Musyoka, who stood little chance of electoral victory. Despite this, results show that most of his supporters chose to vote for the candidate, failing to perceive that he was not a viable contender. [R, abr.]
67.2043 HOSS, Anne —
Political thought in Botswana is importantly influenced by the traditional principle of Therisanyo (“consultation and consensus”). The article presents the core ideas and the present-day practice of the Botswanian model of consultation and introduced them to the theory of deliberative democracy. It is argued that the latter and Therisanyo offer both similar and diverging answers to the common objective of discursive will and opinion formation. Thus, they can inspire each other in many ways: on the one hand, considerations from “the West” draw the attention to important democratic qualities of discursive practices. On the other hand, the Botswanian model of consultation offers empirical findings and exhibits alternative emphases which can broaden the “Western” perspective of deliberative democracy. [R] [See Abstr. 67.1592]
67.2044 HUBER, Robert A.; SCHIMPF, Christian H. —
This article examines the influence of populism on democratic quality in Latin America. It draws on findings of qualitative work on this question as well as a theoretical framework by C. Mudde and C. R. Kaltwasser [“Voices of the peoples: populism in Europe and Latin America compared”, Kellogg Institute Working Paper 378, 2011] to test whether the assumptions and results of both are applicable in a comparative study. It is expected that populist actors have a negative impact on democratic quality when they are in government, but that they positively influence democratic quality when they are in opposition, where they can function as a corrective. Further, it is expected that these effects vary depending on the level of consolidation. [R, abr.]
67.2045 HUBER, Sascha —
This article studies the impact of a varying degree of coalition voting in the German federal elections of 2009 and 2013. According to theories of instrumental coalition voting, there should have been more “threshold insurance voting” at the 2013 election, as the FDP was actually in danger of not crossing the threshold. Yet it is found that there was considerably less coalition voting in 2013 than in the 2009 election. The analysis suggests that a more comprehensive account of coalition voting is needed that considers not only instrumental reasoning but also expressive coalition voting. Taking into account expressive motivations for coalition voting helps to explain the tremendous decline of the FDP vote share in the 2013 German federal election. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 67.1983]
67.2046 IBENSKAS, Raimondas; SIKK, Allan —
While parties in many new democracies frequently split, merge, change labels, and make and break electoral alliances, comparative systematic research on how these changes are related to each other is limited. This study addresses this gap by conceptualizing change as a result of intraparty conflicts, conflicts in or consolidation of existing electoral alliances, and the formation of new alliances and mergers. We develop measures for each type of change using an original dataset that covers almost 800 party-electoral term dyads in 11 countries in Central and Eastern Europe in the period between 1990 and 2015. We find that exits from existing electoral alliances, their consolidation through mergers, and the formation of new alliances and mergers are moderately related to each other, but not with intra-party splits. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 67.2139]
67.2047 JÄCKLE, Sebastian; KÖNIG, Pascal D. —
In 2015, Germany experienced a record high influx of refugees — and received international praise for its “welcome culture”. At the same time, however, attacks on refugees rose to an alarming level. This article describes the distribution of these attacks and probes their causes, using detailed socioeconomic and political data while modelling a hierarchical data structure. Controlling for further relevant factors taken from the extant literature, the analysis first tests whether the strength of extreme right political parties plays a role and, second, it models a contagion effect, taking into account spatial as well as temporal proximity. The findings suggest that the strength of right-wing parties in a district considerably boosts the probability of attacks on refugees in that area. [R, abr.]
67.2048 JACOBS, Alan M.; MATTHEWS, J. Scott —
This article examines the link between citizens’ policy attitudes and the institutional context in which policies are carried out. The article develops a theory of opinion formation toward policies that impose costs on citizens in order to invest in broadly valued social goods. In this framework, problems of agency loss and time inconsistency leave citizens uncertain about whether promised policy benefits will be delivered. Citizen support for public investments thus depends on whether the institutional context makes elites’ policy promises credible. We consider hypotheses about how the institutional allocation of authority and the institutional rules governing implementation affect citizen support for public investment, and we find broad support for the framework in three survey experiments administered to representative samples of US citizens. [R, abr.]
67.2049 JAMIL, Ishtiaq; ASKVIK, Steinar; BANIAMIN, Hasan Muhammad —
This paper analyzes citizens’ trust in anticorruption agencies (ACAs) in Bangladesh and Nepal. An increase in trust over time should indicate that the agencies are performing according to citizens’ expectations. The data come from two waves of surveys. Our findings suggest that in the first wave trust patterns are similar for both countries; in the second wave, trust in ACAs in Nepal increased significantly. In explaining variations in trust, we found that trust was linked to citizens’ experiences with political processes, including their alienation from those processes and their perceptions of the trustworthiness of institutions, civil servants, and politicians in general. [R] [See Abstr. 67.1361]
67.2050 JOHNSON, Tim; DAWES, Christopher T. —
Decades of research indicate that familial factors mold political and civic dispositions early in life, before an individual experiences political events outside the family. We ask if individuals’ political and civic dispositions might be influenced not solely by their own experiences, but, also, by the experiences of those individuals who create their family environment — namely, their parents. Do parents’ life experiences — before the birth of their children — affect their offspring's public engagement? To answer that question, we examine how the assignment of military service, via the Vietnam-era Selective Service Lotteries, affected rates of public participation among the children of draft-eligible men. Our analysis finds a negative relationship between a father's probability of draft-induced military service and his offspring's public participation. [R, abr.]
67.2051 JOHNSTON, Ron; JONES, Kelvyn; MANLEY, David —
There has been considerable debate regarding a hypothesis that the American electorate has become spatially more polarized over recent decades. Using a new method for measuring polarization, this paper evaluates that hypothesis regarding voting for the Democratic party's presidential candidates at six elections since 1992, at three separate spatial scales. The findings are unambiguous: polarization has increased substantially across the country's nine census divisions, across the 49 states within those divisions, and across the 3,077 counties within the states — with the most significant change at the finest of those three scales. [R]
67.2052 JONG, Wouter; DÜCKERS, Michel L. A.; VELDEN, Peter G. van der —
Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17 crashed in the Ukraine on 17 July 2014 with 193 Dutch passengers on board. The present study assessed which MH17-related activities (or absence of certain activities) of 54 mayors from the Netherlands were mentioned in (social) media and if and how they were evaluated. Analyses of newspaper articles and social media showed that public “meaning making” and “remembering” by mayors can be considered as a table stake or conditio sine qua non. Mayors are expected to speak at memorials and attend community activities. Strong appreciation was however retrieved from victims’ families whenever mayors visited them with a listening ear in the privacy of their homes, demonstrating the role mayors can fulfil as mourners-in-chief in local communities. [R]
67.2053 JONSON, Lena —
This article shows that resistance and a critical discourse continue in the arts, especially in visual art, in Russia under the present political conditions when free speech has been seriously circumscribed. When in May 2012 V. Putin was reinstalled as president with a new authoritarian conservative agenda, it was expected that the situation for culture would change. This article addresses the question of whether a critical discourse survived in the arts under the new conditions. It presents the new political context for the arts, and provides examples of various artistic strategies of resistance/protest in Russian contemporary art by applying J. Ranciere's concept of dissensus. [R, abr.]
67.2054 KADERCAN, Pelin Telseren; KADERCAN, Burak —
How could the Justice and Development Party defeat the military in a game in which the latter had excelled since the coup in 1960? Exploration of the institutional evolution of the Turkish Armed Forces (TAF) vis-à-vis civil-military relations reveals key insights about not only its rapid downfall as a political actor but also its rise to prominence in the first place. A theoretical framework can help explain under what circumstances politically strong militaries can be “toppled” through countercoups. A historical narrative then can trace the rise and fall of the TAF as a political actor. Finally, a number of implications demonstrate that the risk of a military coup launched by mid-ranking officers is considerably higher now than it was before the countercoups of 2007–2011.
67.2055 KAIKA, Maria; KARALIOTAS, Lazaros —
This article departs from accounts that either deify Indignant Squares as a model for 21st-c. political praxis or demonize them as apolitical/post-political crowd gatherings. By performing a closer ethnographic reading of the Indignants’ protests at Athens’ Syntagma Square, we depict the Indignant Squares as a consensual and deeply spatialized staging of dissent, which nevertheless harbors in its underbelly internally conflicting and often radically opposing political imaginaries. A closer reading of the organization, practice and discourses that evolved at Syntagma Square unearths the existence of not one, but two distinct Indignant Squares, both at Syntagma, each with its own topography (upper and lower square), and its own discursive and material practices. [R, abr.]
67.2056 KAROLEWSKI, Ireneusz Paweł —
The paper explores the recent political participation in Poland focusing on the KOD movement. Given that very limited data [are] available on the impact of citizen participation in political process in Poland, the paper preliminarily assesses the participation “between elections”. The paper [examines] the KOD movement in the context of the civil society concept. [It argues] argues that the KOD movement is located between civil and political society on the one hand; on the other hand, it draws strongly on the symbolism of the civil resistance during the last two decades of communism. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 67.2510]
67.2057 KINCAID, John D. —
This article examines how right-wing social movements have been able to capture a foothold in the Texas [US] state Republican Party, and maintain political support even as their policies and politics have grown increasingly partisan and increasingly extreme. Through in-depth analysis of the state Republican Party's internal battles over the past twenty years, coupled with a fixed-effects regression-analysis of statewide election results 1994–2012, the article uses the context of statewide battles over equalization of education finance to explain how right-wing movements in Texas have maintained durable support for radical, right-wing candidates and policies. The article demonstrates the role played by material and symbolic “threats” in maintaining and increasing support for the Republican Party, even among previously moderate populations. [R, abr.]
67.2058 KIRDIŞ, Esen; DRHIMEUR, Amina —
Adapting a most-different-systems approach, this study looks at the similar political evolution of two incumbent pro-Islamic parties, the AKP and the PJD, in two different political contexts, that of secular democratic Turkey and of authoritarian Morocco where the King claims Islamic legitimacy. Borrowing from the literature on populism in Europe and in Latin America, this study tests the expectations of the inclusion-moderation literature for incumbent pro-Islamic parties. It argues that incumbent pro-Islamic parties have evolved into populist parties that (1) combine a thin-centered understanding of political Islam with other ideologies in order to consolidate their electoral appeal among diverse constituents and (2) see themselves as the representatives of a marginalized majority, adapt anti-elitism, and engage in political reforms in the name of bringing the will of the majority into power. [R, abr.]
67.2059 KNOTT, Eleanor —
The question of why individuals vote, the so-called “paradox of voting”, has been a crucial debate within political science, conceived deductively as an interaction between costs, benefits, and, as some argue, duties. This article situates the question of why individuals vote within the context of extra-territorial elections, focusing on how and why those who acquire citizenship kin-states participate in kin-state elections following citizenship acquisition, while continuing to reside outside of the kin-state. The article uses the case of newly acquired Romanian citizens in Moldova, who have never resided in nor intend to reside in Romania, to unpack whether, how, and why individuals acquiring Romanian citizenship in Moldova vote in Romanian elections. [R, abr.]
67.2060 KÖLLN, Ann-Kristin; POLK, Jonathan —
Party members across European democracies exercise increasing influence on parties’ policy platforms or personnel choices. This article investigates ideological (in)congruence on the left-right spectrum between members and their parties by drawing on a party membership survey of more than 10,000 individuals across seven political parties in Sweden. The results show that around two-thirds of members are not perfectly congruent with their party. In a two-step analysis, the article argues that emancipated members, with higher political interest and with a more independent self-conception, are more comfortable being ideologically incongruent with their party. We also provide evidence that ideological incongruence matters for members’ exit, voice and loyalty behavior. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 67.2139]
67.2061 KOMAR, Olivera; Ž IVKOVIĆ, Slaven —
In Montenegro, one of the main features of representative democracy has never developed: government replaceability. After regaining independence and initiating an EU-accession process, externally driven changes have stimulated lively institutional transformations which, however, have failed to produce meaningful democratic competition. This article [examines] how it is possible that in a formally democratic legal framework the ruling (ex-communist) party keeps winning each national election. Apart from providing a contextual analysis, it describes a rather interesting concept — the image of invincibility, which is, together with deep national/ethnic divisions and non-participant political attitudes, believed to be one of the key ingredients of the enigma of the last uninterrupted ex-communist incumbency in the post-communist world. [R]
67.2062 KOPEČEK, Lubomír —
Business-firm parties are either commercial companies, whose structure is used for a political project, or new and separate organizations constructed on business principles. This article examines the case of Czech party ANO (“YES”), established by the owner of the Agrofert holding company, A. Babic. The party achieved remarkable success in the 2013 Czech general election. The opportunity for ANO's success was provided by strong voter dissatisfaction, reinforced by the scandalous circumstances of the centre-right government's fall. This context created a fertile ground for the introduction of a new entity espousing anti-party, anti-corruption, and anti-political sentiments. The strengthening of the typical traits of a business-firm party can be explained by reference to the party's origin in the business environment and the notions entertained by its leader. [R, abr.]
67.2063 KOYZIS, David T. —
While the French Revolution of 1789 divided European polities along religious lines in the ensuing decades, the English-speaking world, including the US, was largely bypassed by the turmoil it engendered. Consequently, while Christian democratic parties developed in post-revolutionary Europe, parties in Great Britain and the US divided along more pragmatic lines. Now, however, the increasing polarization of the American electorate along religious and partisan lines has brought a French-style divisiveness to that country's political life. While this would seem to provide fertile ground for the growth of a Christian democratic party, such a phenomenon will become viable only if structural, cultural and practical obstacles can be successfully overcome. [R] [See Abstr. 67.1917]
67.2064 KRAMON, Eric —
This paper examines the local economic and social conditions in which vote-buying influences the behavior of voters in Kenya. I combine data from a nationally representative list experiment conducted after Kenya's 2007 elections with highly disaggregated census data about local economic and social conditions. While 7 percent report that vote-buying influenced their vote when asked directly, the list experiment finds that 23 percent were influenced. I find mixed evidence and statistically weak evidence that vote-buying is more effective in the local areas where parties should be best able to monitor voters. Vote-buying is, however, most effective where voters lack access to information about politics. I discuss the implications of the results for literature on vote-buying, clientelism, and electoral accountability. [R, abr.]
67.2065 KRASTEV, Ivan —
This article argues that the unraveling of the post-Cold War liberal order is manifested by the West's declining influence in international politics; the waning attraction of liberal democracy; and the maturing tensions within liberal democratic regimes. This unraveling renders problematic the European project of trying to extend democracy beyond the nation-state — a project that has enhanced the appeal of illiberal democracy, defined by majoritarian regimes in which the majority transforms the state into its own private possession. These regimes have become an answer to the pressures of a world where popular will is the only source of political legitimacy, and global markets are the only source of economic growth. Their rise portends devastating and far-reaching consequences throughout Europe. [R] [See Abstr. 67.2132]
67.2066 KREISS, Daniel; JASINSKI, Christopher —
Drawing on theories in organizational sociology that argue that transpositions of people, skills, and knowledge across domains give rise to innovations and organizational findings that institutionalize them, we conducted a mixed-methods study of the employment biographies of staffers working in technology, digital, data, and analytics on US presidential campaigns, and the rates of organizational founding by these staffers, from the 2004 through the 2012 electoral cycles. Using Federal Election Commission and LinkedIn data, we trace the professional biographies of staffers (N=629) working in technology, digital, data, or analytics on primary and general election presidential campaigns during this period. We found uneven professionalization in these areas. [R, abr.]
67.2067 KRIMMEL, Katherine; LAX, Jeffrey R.; PHILLIPS, Justin H. —
Public majorities have supported several gay rights policies for some time, yet [the US] Congress's response has been limited. We document and analyze this tension through dyadic analysis of the opinion-vote relationship on 23 roll-calls between 1993 and 2010, revealing a nuanced picture of responsiveness and incongruence. While constituent preferences influence white male Democrats, black lawmakers and white female Democratic lawmakers generally support gay rights and Republicans consistently oppose them, regardless of constituent preferences. Moreover, changes in constituent opinion typically fail to engender vote changes. In sum, despite a degree of responsiveness to opinion, we find there is a persistent bias against constituent will on LGB rights. [R]
67.2068 KUTEESA, Annette; MAWEJJE, Joseph —
This study assesses the capabilities of business associations for conducting meaningful policy engagements with government. Using information from 21 associations and five state institutions, this work investigates the level of autonomy and ability of business associations to coordinate and order their interests for policy decision-making. Findings reveal that the ability to organize an association's own interests is hindered by weak systems and internal structures, especially at sub-sector level. Most associations are financially weak, have limited professional expertise and experience a low level of commitment from members, which affects their capacity for autonomy. [R, abr.]
67.2069 LARIÈGE, Julien —
Leader of the PJD Islamist party which has just won the elections for the second time, A. Benkirane was reappointed as head the Moroccan government. An underground movement activist planning to overthrow the monarchy who became Prime Minister to King Mohammed VI, his unusual background reveals the profound political changes in Morocco during the past three decades and the limits of a political strategy based on conciliation. [R] [See Abstr. 67.2166]
67.2070 LARSEN, Erik Gahner; LEVINSEN, Klaus; KJAER, Ulrik —
Should 16-year-olds be entitled to participate in elections? We theorize that mock elections for adolescents, who are not eligible to vote, affect the short-term support among the general public for lowering the voting age. To test our theoretical expectation, we utilize variation among municipalities in the organization of mock elections during the Danish local elections in 2009. Difference-in-difference estimates with data from the subsequent local elections in 2013 demonstrate that citizens in municipalities with mock elections for adolescents were more supportive of lowering the voting age and that their support was strongly rooted in ideological differences. [R]
67.2071 LEE Chun Wing —
This study aims to understand the rise of youth activism in Hong Kong by focusing on the effects of schools and peers on political socialization. Based on thirteen focus-group sessions with fifty-six young social movement participants, this study argues that Liberal Studies and teachers are two important factors contributing to the political socialization in schools of these participants. Joining peer groups in which political activism is the norm and having peers who discuss important political events or controversies are two other common ways in which young people in Hong Kong are socialized to become social movement participants. However, to fully understand the effects of schools and peers in the political socialization of young social movement participants, it also is essential to consider the political context of Hong Kong. [R]
67.2072 LEE, Francis L. F. —
This article analyzes the construction of images of public opinion through polling during the Umbrella Movement. The analysis illustrates the discursive strategies involved in selective reporting of opinion polls by newspapers with different political stances. It also demonstrates how poll results were articulated with other assumptions, principles, and discourses to generate claims about the legitimacy or proper strategies of the movement. On the whole, the analysis shows how public opinion, as a discursive category, was brought to bear on the dynamics of the Umbrella Movement through polling and its communication. [R, abr.]
67.2073 LEE Hoon; JANG S. Mo —
The current research assessed whether political satire viewing could indirectly promote interpersonal talk about politics by eliciting emotions. The theoretical model was tested utilizing both experimental and survey designs. The findings indicated good agreement, demonstrating that negative emotions significantly mediate and reinforce the effect of political satire viewing on interpersonal talk. Conversely, the process wherein traditional news sources motivate interpersonal talk is mostly direct, with little development of affective responses. The results suggest that political satire can help to paint a sanguine picture of a healthy deliberative democracy mainly through an affective rather than cognitive route. [R]
67.2074 LEININGER, Julia —
This article explains religious actors’ influence on democratic transition in Mali (1987–1992). It argues that it takes more than political theology to effectively influence democratization processes. Although Muslim actors used their political theology during democratization, they had neither the organizational means nor the legitimization to convince others of their preferences for a post-authoritarian institutional set-up. They had very limited influence on the institutions that today are supposed to regulate the relations between religion and the state under democratic rule. In fact, this high path-dependency of institutional factors since the colonial era led to an informalization of non-liberal Muslim politics in the 2000s. [R, abr.]
67.2075 LELKES, Yphtach —
Recent work has explored how individual and institutional factors affect the gap in perceptions of political legitimacy between electoral winners and electoral losers, but has ignored the role that the political information environment, in general, and ideologically biased media, in particular, plays in exacerbating or diminishing this gap. By combining individual-level public opinion data in 28 countries, an expert survey on media systems, and a variety of country-level indicators, I find that higher levels of political parallelism in a country are associated with a larger winner-loser gap in institutional trust and satisfaction with democracy. The relationship is contingent on whether or not people are actually exposed to said media. This research indicates that the increasing availability of partisan news around the world is a cause for concern. [R, abr.]
67.2076 LESSCHAEVE, Christophe —
The left-right self-placement scale is often used in political science as a proxy for the policy positions of voters and parties. Yet studies have suggested that, for voters, this relation is dependent on education level. These studies were, however, hampered by data limitations and restricted statistical analyses. In addition, the extent to which the relation between the left-right self-placement scale and policy positions differs for parties and voters has not been explored. This article looks at the differential relation between left-right self-placement and policy positions for voters with different education levels on an integrated dataset containing over 50 voter and party policy positions. It is found that the left-right self-placement scale is a much better predictor for the policy positions of parties than it is for the policy preferences of voters. [R, abr.]
67.2077 LI Xiaojun; WANG Jianwei; CHEN Dingding —
Few studies systematically explore exactly how trust, or the lack of it, influences international cooperation in East Asia. We examine the microfoundations of international trust in East Asia by analyzing an original survey of Chinese urban residents’ attitudes toward Japan and South Korea. We find that generalized trust, or the belief that other nations have benign intentions, provides the most important driving force of trust toward Japan and South Korea. This, in turn, has a positive effect on preferences for interstate cooperation. We also find that, contrary to conventional wisdom, nationalism and historical memory have little or no effect on international trust. Our analysis enhances our broader understanding of international trust by clarifying its sources and consequences. It also suggests some important policy implications for Sino-Japanese relations and Chinese foreign policy. [R, abr.]
67.2078 LINDELL, Marina, et al. —
In the study of deliberation, a largely under-explored area is why some participants polarize their opinion after deliberation and why others moderate them. Opinion polarization is usually considered a suspicious outcome of deliberation, while moderation is seen as a desirable one. This article takes issue with this view. Results from a Finnish deliberative experiment on immigration show that polarizers and moderators were not different in socio-economic, cognitive or affective profiles. Moreover, both polarization and moderation can entail deliberatively desired pathways: in the experiment, both polarizers and moderators learned during deliberation, and group pressures barely mattered. Finally, the low physical presence of immigrants in some discussion groups was associated with polarization in the anti-immigrant direction, bolstering longstanding claims regarding the importance of presence for democratic politics. [R]
67.2079 LINDGREN, Karl-Oskar; VERNBY, Kåre —
Do economic downturns increase voter support for left or right parties? In our empirical analysis, we combine fine-grained registry-data on the labor market impact of the crisis and how it varied across 5000 electoral districts, with district-level data on vote-shares for all major parties in Swedish parliamentary elections before and after the crisis. Because the impact was so diverse across districts, we can estimate the electoral impact of unemployment more efficiently than usual. Moreover, because the crisis was an external and unexpected shock to the Swedish economy, we argue that the selection bias that is usually inherent in estimating the electoral impact of unemployment is mitigated. We find that the electoral impact of crisis-induced unemployment was large, benefiting right parties. [R]
67.2080 LIU Frank Cheng-Shan —
This study summarizes critical factors that influence a voter's choice between the appellations “Taiwan” and “Republic of China”, a subject that has not been systematically studied so far. When the legitimacy of “Republic of China” is considered, Taiwanese voters’ political identity pattern reveals itself to be more complicated than simply a choice between unification with China and independence. [R]
67.2081 LOBO, Sascha —
Civil society has been largely based on the 20th-c. mass media. Blogger and author S. Lobo affirms that the model is called into question with the impact of digitalization. Traditional newspapers have been replaced by short, emotionally-charged messages on the web as the main source of written information. This digital excitement reveals societal unsteadiness and has favored the rise of both the far-right party Alternative for Germany and the Pegida movement.
67.2082 LOCHOCKI, Timo —
The handling of the refugee crisis by the grand coalition between the Social Democrats (SPD) and the Conservatives (CDU/CSU) has been portrayed as a possible breaking point for A. Merkel's chancellorship. With the right-wing populist Alternative for Germany (AfD) rising to 13 percent in June 2016, it seems that Germany is falling prey to the political instability seen in other European states. However, the numbers of incoming refugees dropped massively, the economic costs of integration appear manageable, and established German parties have been given time to craft strategies for reclaiming conservative voters from the AfD. From now on, strategic political communication in the run-up to the federal election in September 2017 could allow the formation of a stable and pro-European German government in the coming years. [R] [See Abstr. 67.2132]
67.2083 LOIDOLT, Bryce; MECHAM, Quinn —
Why do opposition political parties choose to run for parliament in semi-authoritarian systems? Existing literature emphasizes the benefits that these parties derive from campaigning and running for elections, while paying little attention to the politics that occurs within legislative institutions under these regimes. Supplementing election-centric theories, we argue that opposition actors in semi-authoritarian systems also benefit directly from serving in weak parliaments and that this helps explain their participation in biased elections. We demonstrate this by examining the Muslim Brotherhood's legislative performance in Mubarak's Egypt, highlighting the mechanisms through which it used its minority presence in parliament to its advantage. [R]
67.2084 LONČAR, Jelena —
This article examines under what conditions descriptive representatives of national minorities can also act as substantive representatives. It provides an empirical analysis of the behavior of the representatives with ethnic minority backgrounds in the eighth National Assembly of the Republic of Serbia. Specifically, the article builds upon a content-analysis of all interventions in the plenary parliamentary debates of the thirty-one minority MPs in the period between June 2008 and March 2012. The analysis suggests that having a minority ethnic background or political party registered as a political party of national minority are not sufficient conditions for substantive minority representation. [R, abr.]
67.2085 LONČAR, Jelena —
This article focuses on the participation of local citizens in Kosovo in the process of state-building and their engagement with the institutions imposed by the international community. While previous literature focuses either on the constitutional and institutional framework or on the more direct forms of local resistance to international intervention, this article looks into more subtle forms of resistance whereby local citizens change the meanings of imposed institutions. It examines the process of adoption of two minority-relevant laws: the Law on the Historic Center of Prizren and the Law on the Village of Velika Hoca/Hoçë e Madhe. By employing a critical frame analysis, this paper points to the very subtle forms of resistance to the international rule. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 67.2510]
67.2086 LUCARDI, Adrián; MICOZZI, Juan Pablo —
How do electoral opportunities affect politicians’ career strategies? Do politicians behave strategically in response to the opportunities provided by the electoral calendar? We argue that in a legislature that combines non-static ambition with a staggered electoral calendar, different kinds of politicians will have dissimilar preferences towards running in concurrent or midterm elections. More specifically, politicians with no previous executive experience should strategically run in midterm legislative elections in order to increase their visibility among voters, while more experienced politicians should opt for concurrent elections. We support these claims with data from the Argentine Chamber of Deputies between 1983 and 2007. [R]
67.2087 LUCARDI, Adrián; ROSAS, Guillermo —
Studies based on regression discontinuity designs detect an “incumbent curse” in young democracies. We note that RD studies depend on the analysis of close elections, which induce players to strategically in ways that undermine potential incumbency advantages. Data from Mexico shows an incumbency curse in municipal elections but not in elections for national legislators. Municipal data show that the vote share of second-loser parties drops drastically after a close election and that the magnitude of the curse varies in states governed by copartisan governors. Failure to account for these mechanisms risks exaggerating the size of the incumbent curse. [R]
67.2088 LUTTIG, Matthew D.; CALLAGHAN, Timothy H. —
A vast literature indicates that racial animosity has a pervasive influence on the public's evaluations of US President B. Obama. Can political communications enhance and/or defuse the link between White Americans’ racial attitudes and evaluations of B. Obama? In this article, we report the results of an experiment conducted in the midst of the 2012 presidential campaign which examines the effect of political rhetoric on the extent to which evaluations of Barack Obama are racialized. Drawing from research on attitude strength and pretreatment effects in experimental studies, we argue that the use of racial appeals in the pretreatment environment and the strength of citizens’ preexisting attitudes toward the incumbent president may produce a downward bias in average estimates of racial priming effects toward President Obama. [R, abr.]
67.2089 MacQUEEN, Benjamin —
The consociational model is not, and has not historically been, an appropriate analytical guide to understanding Lebanese politics. Where consociationalism might serve as an aspiration, it provides minimal utility in analyzing and understanding the dynamics of Lebanese politics. Key features of consociationalism are thus missing in Lebanon; namely, institutional constraints on elite decision making, a proportional electoral system, severe regulation of and exclusion from political participation for the majority of the population, and dysfunctional government and coalition structures. An analysis of the inertia surrounding political reform in Lebanon, typified by failed efforts at reforming the electoral system, reveals a subtle but critical mutual dependency between political elites and the confessional system in which they operate and which sustains their dominance.
67.2090 MacWILLIAMS, Matthew C. —
This year in the Republican presidential contest party insiders failed to anoint a standard-bearer. Who decides when the party elites don't? In 2016, it was America's authoritarian voters. And their candidate of choice, D. Trump, is anathema to party leaders. I argue that Trump's rise is in part the result of authoritarian voters’ response to his unvarnished, us-versus-them rhetoric. The failure of Republican Party insiders to coalesce behind one candidate opened the door for Trump. Authoritarian-driven partisan polarization [M. Hetherington and J. Weiler Authoritarianism and Polarization in American Politics, Cambridge, 2009], increasing fear of real and imagined threats, and terrorist incidents abroad and at home provided the fuel for Trump's campaign. And Trump's message and manner ignited that fuel, propelling him to the Republican nomination for president. [R, abr.]
67.2091 MADRID, Raúl L.; RHODES-PURDY, Matthew —
We analyze the impact of descriptive representation on regime support among women and the self-identified indigenous population in Latin America. We find that having a female president does not have a consistent impact on regime support among Latin American women, but that the election of an indigenous president has significantly boosted regime support among indigenous people in Bolivia. We suggest that ethnic representation has had a greater impact than gender representation on regime support in the region because: (1) in Latin America, ethnicity is much more highly correlated than gender with other variables that are known to shape political attitudes, such as class, education, region, and area of residence; (2) ethnicity has been a more salient factor in elections and governing than has gender in countries that have elected indigenous or female presidents. [R, abr.]
67.2092 MAEDA, Ko —
It has been suggested that one of the reasons why majoritarian electoral systems are associated with lower voter turnout in comparison to proportional electoral systems is that citizens in uncompetitive districts (“safe seats”) are not motivated to vote. This study brings this thesis into a new context and tests it with unique data. Mixed-member electoral systems have both majoritarian and proportional components. The relative importance of these components differs between mixed-member proportional (MMP) and mixed-member majoritarian (MMM) systems. I argue that, due to this difference, the impact of district-level competitiveness on turnout is stronger in MMM than in MMP. [R, abr.]
67.2093 MARCHI, Riccardo; BRUNO, Guido —
The object of the paper is the European extreme-right and its perspective on the refugees’ crisis. The aim is the contrast the thesis of the eternal return of fascism through the theories of the varieties of the extreme-rights (the traditional ones and the post-industrial ones) and their dynamics by waves. On this basis, the statements of the extreme-right parties and movements about the refugees’ crisis demonstrate empirically the polymorphic character of that political family and the strength of its discourse: not a mere racist chauvinism but a set of radical alternatives to the national policies, the European project and its geopolitical role in the Mediterranean region. [R] [See Abstr. 67.2241]
67.2094 MARTIG, Noemi; BERNAUER, Julian —
This article's empirical research has been carried out among Muslim populations and other foreign groups and is based on the success of the Swiss People's Party (SVP) in the 2015 election. It outlines that the rise of right-wing populist parties (“halo effect”) is due either to a diffuse sense of threat consecutive to a high local ratio of foreign population groups or to a very small chance that majorities and minorities might come into contact. The halo effect may vary by virtue of socio-structural factors such as the activity rate or income level, but their impact is not the same between Muslims and other foreign populations. [R, transl.]
67.2095 MARTÍNEZ, Christopher A. —
Since 1979, one in every six South American presidents has failed to complete his constitutional term. These “presidential failures” occur when elected presidents are forced out of office but without compromising the democratic order. This article [examines] the factors that underlie presidential failures through a survival analysis of 65 South American presidencies between 1979 and 2012. We argue that “democratic stock”, assessed by taking a historical perspective on democracy, significantly affects presidential survival, a finding which has not been observed in previous studies. It is found that partisan support and democratic stock reduce the hazard of presidential failure. The findings offer new evidence for the “institutions vs. street” debate by showing that, when institutional variables are accounted for, the effect of social mobilizations significantly weakens. [R, abr.]
67.2096 MAŠKARINEC, Pavel; KLIMOVSKÝ, Daniel —
This article tests factors which potentially explain differences in independents’ representation at the local level in the Czech Republic and Slovakia. Size of a municipality was almost the single factor, together with the generally low levels of explained variability, we suggest that for a more adequate explanation of independents’ successfulness, we need to look for other indicators that could characterize the form of political competition in the specific municipalities, particularly in those associated with a specific political culture or other indicators of similar type, which can be difficult to abstract from aggregate data and their use would require the implementation of specific research on the local level. [R]
67.2097 MAYBLIN, Lucy —
Since the early 2000s, asylum policy in Western states has become increasingly dominated by the concept of the “pull factor” — the idea that the economic rights afforded to asylum-seekers can act as a migratory pull. Through an analysis of the pull factor in the UK context, and drawing on insights from Cultural Political Economy, this article argues that the hegemony of the pull factor thesis is best understood as a “policy imaginary” which has become sedimented through both discursive and extra-discursive practices and processes. The article offers a means of understanding how a common sense assumption — which is challenged by a large body of evidence — has come to dominate policy-making in a key area of concern for politicians and policy-makers. [R, abr.]
67.2098 McGARRY, Aidan —
This article argues that public space is important for marginalized communities in order to ensure visibility and presence in public life. Often minority groups are excluded from democratic procedures which favor majority interests and preferences. This is not to say that minority interests are incompatible with those of the majority but some marginalized groups are not anchored in the public space, can suffer discriminatory treatment and lack the ability to control dominant, usually negative, ascriptions of group identity. This article explores two cases of marginalized communities and access to the public space in post-socialist Europe: Roma and the LGBTI communities. Both communities have attempted to ensure their presence in public space through “Pride” parades across Central and Eastern European capitals. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 67.2510]
67.2099 McGRAW, Bryan T. —
I survey the histories of Europe's Christian Democratic parties and suggest that inasmuch as they show that religiously framed party politics can have significant and positive effects on both institutions and supporters, it is difficult to see how those lessons translate straightforwardly to the American social and political order. Even if they did, making a success, both electorally and substantively, of a Christian Democratic movement in the US would require a degree of statesmanship that certainly seems in short supply these days. [R] [See Abstr. 67.1917]
67.2100 McGRAW, Sean —
For over eight decades, Fianna Fáil demonstrated a remarkable capacity for successful adaptation to cope with a turbulent and increasingly uncertain electoral environment. Fianna Fáil has demonstrated a knack for adapting to challenges in more nuanced and variegated ways to reinforce its long-term advantages within the Irish party system. This article underscores how Fianna Fáil's capacity for ideological adaptation has contributed to constraining the electoral arena, thereby preventing minor parties from successfully claiming hot-button issues and instead re-directing competition towards the their party's relative ability to deliver goods and services locally. Second, it places in high relief Fianna Fail's capacity to employ extra-parliamentary institutional adaptations within the Irish political system, including the national system of wage bargaining, referenda, and tribunals at times when it suits the party electorally. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 67.1945]
67.2101 MICHAEL, George —
Populism has a long history in American politics. In the current US presidential campaign, two widely different incarnations of populism have gained widespread support at the same time. On the political left, B. Sanders champions redistributive economic policies that resonate with members of the millennial generation who feel left behind in the stagnating American economy. On the political right, D. Trump voices the concerns that many ordinary Americans have over immigration, trade policies, federal spending, and terrorism. These two competing versions of populism could presage great divisiveness in America. And the consequences could be substantial for the world which has become so dependent on American leadership since the end of the Cold War. [R] [See Abstr. 67.2241]
67.2102 MIHEEV, Vasilij V.; LUKONIN, Sergej A.; ČŽE, Sun Hun —
The growing dissatisfaction with Xi Jinping's policy, albeit uncharacteristically candid, does not create critical threats to his power. Nevertheless, an intensification of political struggle can be expected before the 2017 CPC Congress when Xi will try to surround himself with people on the ministerial level that are personally loyal to him. Arrangements defined in the 13th five-year plan for China's socio-economic development are no longer perceived by businesses with the same confidence. The Plan's most important elements will be the so-called “Supply Side Reform” and the “One belt, one road” concept. The main mechanism of the Reform's implementation will be fiscal policy. Investment, consumption, and export will retain their function, although balance will shift in favor of high-quality and innovative product consumption. [R, abr.]
67.2103 MIKUCKA-WÓJTOWICZ, Dominika —
In the literature on the Europeanization of political parties and party systems, transnational party cooperation (TPC) is very often treated as a special and unique kind of Europeanization of national political parties. Researchers emphasize its direct and more institutionalized character. The article investigates the impact of TPC on Croatian political parties, and tries to determine whether this cooperation has led to changes in the programs and organization of Croatian parties or furthered de-radicalization of their stances. The article also explores whether party activists involved in cooperation with Europarties play an important role in the process of Europeanization of their parent parties. [R]
67.2104 MILLER, Peter; DASSONNEVILLE, Ruth —
We use a quasi-experimental framework to test the conventional wisdom that left-of-center parties benefit from higher turnout by analyzing the partisan effects of the abolition of compulsory voting in the Netherlands. Fixed effects, multilevel, and matching models of party family vote-shares in the Netherlands before and after the reform — and in reference to a control group of Belgian party families — show consistent evidence the voting reform led to an increase in the vote-shares of Dutch social democratic parties and a decrease in the vote-share won by minor and extreme parties. We find some evidence that Christian democratic and liberal parties also benefited from the voting reform, but argue this finding is not causally related to the reform itself. [R]
67.2105 MIN Jeonghun; GURIAN, Paul-Henri —
Do presidential campaigns matter outside the US? We examine how public opinion responds to campaign events during Korean presidential campaigns. The fundamental variables of the election year influence vote-intention before the campaign begins and substantially influence eventual vote-choice. Campaign events assist voters to learn more about the fundamental variables — regionalism, party identification, and retrospective evaluations of the incumbent administration — and this leads to more informed intentions during the campaign. The results suggest that there is substantial congruence in the explanatory power of Holbrook's “equilibrium” theory and Gelman and King's “enlightenment” theory in presidential campaigns held in the US and in Korea. [R]
67.2106 MOCHTAK, Michal —
The article focuses on an analysis of incidents of electoral violence in Serbia in the period of 1990–2014. It identifies potential sources of contentious behavior in the electoral arena and, using a fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA), to select potential causal paths that can explain it. Theoretical discussion combined with the original data collected from OSCE monitoring reports open a space for the systematic assessment of the explanatory power of various arguments concerning electoral violence while discussing its sources and logic. The fsQCA analysis identifies two causal paths that explain the occurrence of the phenomenon in the country covering Milosevic and the post-Milosevic era. [R]
67.2107 MONTGOMERIE, Johnna —
This paper argues that Austerity is an experiment in economic storytelling that seeks to cope with the post-crash British economy by trying to revive and consolidate the Anglo-American financialized growth model, and, by doing so, actively prevents the necessary structural economic reforms needed to achieve the desired revitalizing of the economy. [It examines] the structural accounts that explain why Austerity is the outcome of the 2008 financial crisis with the everyday understandings of how Austerity is made through processes by forging common-sense narratives of economic crisis. These accounts are refracted through a feminist political economy lens attuned to the dynamics of power — or who must pay the costs of Austerity. The paper considers what feminist-inspired analysis of household can reveal about the fundamental flaws of financialization under the auspices of Austerity. [R] [See Abstr. 67.2206]
67.2108 MOORE, Aaron A.; McGREGOR, R. Michael; STEPHENSON, Laura B. —
The importance of incumbent evaluations for voting and the existence of an incumbency effect are well-established. However, there is limited research on the effect incumbency has on voters’ engagement with election campaigns. This paper examines whether the use of incumbency as a cue when voting is associated with there being less interest in an election and whether campaign period attentiveness affects incumbent support. We consider these questions using data from the Toronto Election Study, a large-N, two-wave survey of Torontonians conducted around the time of the 2014 Toronto Municipal Election. We find that attentiveness, on its own, does not make voters more likely to support an incumbent or non-incumbent candidate. However, among individuals with high knowledge, attentiveness decreases the likelihood of supporting the incumbent, as opposed to a non-incumbent candidate. [R]
67.2109 MORAL, Mert —
This article focuses on voter discontent and voter apathy as two major determinants of casting an invalid vote and answers why some voters intentionally waste their votes despite paying the costs of voting. Higher distinct policy offerings decrease the probability of casting an invalid vote. However, voting behaviors of politically sophisticated and unsophisticated voters vary conditionally on the diversity of policy offerings and the cost of information. (1) when a party system offers a larger set of policy offerings, politically sophisticated voters become less likely to cast an invalid vote and more likely to support niche parties. (2) sophisticated voters cannot deal with increasing cost of information, and are more likely to cast an invalid vote, especially in party systems with compulsory voting where the cost of nonvoting is higher. [R, abr.]
67.2110 MORENO TACCHI, Daniela —
At the international and national levels, the modernization of the state has been closely linked to actions to make it more transparent and also to the efforts to involve citizens in public affairs. However, despite this conceptual symbiosis and countless theoretically “modernizing” actions as well as the citizensˊ demands for transparency and participation, the results have not turned out as expected. Particularly, there is a marked crisis of confidence in public institutions that again suggests more transparency as the answer for more modernization. Based on the results of the Transparency and Access to Information Index (ITAI) of the Council for Transparency, we propose the need to associate the concepts of “transparency” and “modernization” with the practices of the Public Administration. [R, abr.]
67.2111 MOSLER, Hannes B. —
This chapter examines based on representative controversies during the recent ten years the most recent manifestations of the discourse competition over determining the conceptualization of democracy in South Korea — the state identity controversy (2004–2005), the textbook controversy (2008–2009), the curriculum controversy, and the party ban controversy (2013–2014). The basic currents of the present democracy discourse are presented along the competing narratives of “liberal democratic basic order” (right-conservatives) and “free democratic basic order” (liberalprogressives). The analysis shows a weakly developed discursive disposition represented in exclusively opposing interpretations of the fdBO leading to an idiosyncratic concept of democracy. [R] [See Abstr. 67.1592]
67.2112 MUMMOLO, Jonathan; NALL, Clayton —
Social divisions between American partisans are growing: it has been widely claimed that this partisan social divide extends to Americans’ decisions about where to live. In two original survey experiments, we confirm that Democrats are, in fact, more likely than Republicans to prefer living in more Democratic, dense, and racially diverse places. However, improving on previous studies, we test respondents’ stated preferences against their actual moving behavior. While partisans differ in their residential preferences, on average they are not migrating to more politically distinct communities. Using zip-code-level census and partisanship data on the places where respondents live, we provide one explanation for this contradiction: by prioritizing common concerns when deciding where to live, Americans forgo the opportunity to move to more politically compatible communities. [R]
67.2113 MURRAY, John; NYBERG, Daniel; ROGERS, Justine —
Corporations play an increasingly significant role in public policy and democratic politics. This article [examines] how corporate political activities gain political influence through intertextual strategies. The analysis is conducted on the texts produced by the Australian government in proposing a new tax as well as the texts produced by the mining industry in campaigning against the tax. We show how the government texts represent the proposed tax as a fair opportunity, while the mining industry texts represent the tax as an unfair threat. The findings attend to the processes of how the mining industry “stitched” together constituencies in support of their representation. This article contributes to the literature on corporate political activity by showing how overt and indirect corporate activities and communications influence public policy agendas. [R, abr.]
67.2114 MUTZ, Diana C. —
Few empirical studies suggest that fictional stories can influence political opinions. Nonetheless, I demonstrate the relevance of Harry-Potter-consumption to oppositional attitudes toward D. Trump and his worldview. Using multivariate observational models and panel data from 2014 to 2016, results suggest that the lessons of the Harry Potter series have influenced levels of opposition to punitive policies and support for tolerance of groups considered outside the American mainstream. Further, they predict public reactions to D. Trump above and beyond their influence on policies consistent with his views. [R]
67.2115 NANES, Matthew J. —
This article tests the argument that governments alter their choice of security strategies as elections approach to signal competence to potential voters. Which policy they select should depend on the intended audience of the signal. Governments seeking support from their partisan base should select different policies than those courting the support of moderates. I find evidence that Israeli governments manipulate security strategies in the run-up to elections in a manner consistent with an attempt to attract support from core voters. As elections approach, left governments become more dovish on security, while right governments become more hawkish. The relationship between partisanship and policy choice raises concerns that electoral incentives may induce democratic governments to select inefficient or suboptimal security strategies around election time. [R, abr.]
67.2116 NARDON, Laurence —
B. Obama's election had raised high expectations. Eight years later, however, whether it be in racial, economic, social or foreign policy terms, the outcome of his presidency looks uneven. Before judging though, one should first consider the evolution of American society. [R, transl.]
67.2117 NAWARA, Steven P. —
While most of the voter-turnout literature focuses on the differences between voters and nonvoters, scant attention has been paid to what separates regular voters from the “irregular voters” who move in and out of the electorate. This article shows that citizens who regularly vote will be more knowledgeable and involved in the political system than voters who turnout irregularly. In addition, the article supports the existing claim that it is easier for voters to understand social policies than economic policies. These two principles lead to the hypothesis that economic and social policy preferences will predict the decisions of regular voters while the decisions of irregular voters will be predicted by social policy preferences but not economic preferences. [R, abr.]
67.2118 NEIHEISEL, Jacob R. —
I develop and test an interactive theory of voter-turnout that focuses on the impact of legal-institutional barriers to the franchise conditional on party organizational strength and mobilization efforts. I use data on the circulation of party-sponsored newspapers, coupled with information on the spread of voter-registration requirements, to capture the effects of both behavioral and legal-institutional factors in Pennsylvania between 1876 and 1948. My results offer modest empirical support for an interactive theory of aggregate voter-turnout. In isolation, however, the effects of behavioral factors are quite limited. On the contrary, legal-institutional variables exert a sizable impact on voter-turnout in the state. [R. abr.]
67.2119 NICHOLSON, Stephen P., et al. —
Does politics cause people to be perceived as more or less attractive? As a type of social identity, party identifiers often exhibit in-group bias, positively evaluating members of their own party and, especially under conditions of competition, negatively evaluating out-party members. The current experiment tests whether political in-party and out-party status affects perceptions of the physical attractiveness of target persons. In a nationally representative internet sample of US adults during the 2012 presidential election, we presented participants with photos of individuals and varied information about their presidential candidate preference. Results indicate that partisans, regardless of gender, rate target individuals as less attractive if they hold a dissimilar candidate preference. Female partisans, however, were more likely to rate target persons as more physically attractive when they held a similar candidate preference. [R, abr.]
67.2120 NOESSELT, Nele —
People's democracy, socialist democracy, people's democratic dictatorship — the PRC's official political discourse operates with various conceptions of “democracy”. However, it would be more than misleading to evaluate and judge these debates according to the standard definition found in pluralist, liberal democracies. The article examines the state philosophy underlying the democracy concept used by the fifth generation of Chinese leaders and identifies divergences/convergences between the fifth and the fourth generation's ideas about democracy. The strengthening of deliberative democracy accompanied by a recentralization of political power under Xi Jinping allows insights into the current reconfiguration of China's governance model. [R] [See Abstr. 67.1592]
67.2121 NORÉN-NILSSON, Astrid —
In the Cambodian national elections in 2013, the opposition Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP) experienced a strong surge in support, finishing a close second to the long-incumbent Cambodian People's Party (CPP). Whilst the CNRP campaigned on an anti-money politics, rights-based agenda, the CPP has relied on gift-giving practices to maintain links with voters. This article explores changing popular conceptions of provision to assess to what extent a democratic, rights-based conscience in Cambodia has emerged under the current neo-patrimonial regime. Building on qualitative interviews with 192 voters in post-election Cambodia, it finds that gift-giving practices play a different role than current academic theorizations of popular politics, and Cambodian popular politics in particular, would lead us to expect. [R, abr.]
67.2122 NÚÑEZ, Lidia; SIMÓN, Pablo; PILET, Jean-Benoit —
Recent elections in Europe have shown that a context of increasing citizen distrust towards democratic institutions may lead to very high levels of electoral volatility and to the emergence of new parties. On the other hand, institutional reforms are sometimes presented as a solution to citizens’ discontent with political institutions. Focusing on a specific type of political institution — electoral systems — this study questions whether high levels of electoral volatility trigger electoral reforms. The article investigates the conditions under which reforms affecting the electoral system's degree of openness to new parties were enacted in 25 European countries between 1945 and 2012. The findings demonstrate that volatility due to the emergence of new parties is the most powerful explanation to account for the introduction of electoral reforms. [R, abr.]
67.2123 NÚÑEZ, Lucas —
This paper studies strategic voting behavior in the Argentine Senate election for the City of Buenos Aires in 2013. I estimate and analyze the voter transition matrix between the primary and general elections using a Bayesian hierarchical model for ecological inference, utilizing a rich data set of ballot box data. The results show that strategic behavior is not widespread among the electorate in Buenos Aires. In particular, at least 75 % of voters who had the opportunity to avoid vote wasting by behaving strategically did not. I also find high levels of vote wasting when analyzing other provinces during the same election cycle. [R, abr.]
67.2124 NUNN, Alex —
This paper draws on an empirical discussion of inequality in the UK. It argues that inequality should be seen as produced in the inherently unequal social relations of production, drawing attention to the role of social struggle in shaping dynamics of inequality. However, inequality is produced also through the social reproduction of labor power on a day-to-day and inter-generational basis. As such, inequalities of household resources at any point in time may be reproductive of greater future inequality. It is argued that inequality has risen in the UK over recent decades because of changes in the social relations of production in the formal economy and social reproduction in the domestic sector, both of which have witnessed significant state interventions that have increased structural inequalities. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 67.2206]
67.2125 NWANGWU, Chikodiri; ONONOGBU, Olihe Adaeze —
Although effective supervision of political parties’ finance is critical to the survival and consolidation of any democracy, the relevant electoral laws in Nigeria have not been effectively enforced. This is evident in the unbridled deployment of financial and other material resources by moneyed politicians and corporations during party campaign fundraising and electioneering. This paper investigated the interface between the electoral laws and monitoring of campaign financing during the 2015 Presidential Election in Nigeria. Utilizing the Marxist theory of the post-colonial state, the paper established that the electoral laws are generally couched ambiguously by politicians with vested interests in order to weaken the enforcement capacity of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), as well as facilitate the advancement of the electoral interests of the “political entrepreneurs”. [R, abr.]
67.2126 NWOKORA, Zim; BROWN, Lara M. —
The first debate in 2008 was a turning point in the presidential election campaign: a race that was close before the debate turned decisively in Obama's favor following it. This article explores how the media reached their verdict that “Obama won”. We examine two aspects of this problem: how, in practice, the media reached this verdict and whether they made the right decision from a normative standpoint. Based on content analysis of debate transcripts, we argue that the media interpreted the debate by synthesizing three pre-debate narratives in roughly equal proportions. Crucially, two of these narratives favored Obama. We also find that the “Obama won” verdict was consistent with what we might expect had the debate been judged by a public-spirited umpire. [R]
67.2127 O'MALLEY, Eoin; MURPHY, Gary —
Fianna Fáil leaders usually hold the office of Taoiseach, allowing Fianna Fáil to set the agenda for, and react to, changes in Irish society. We investigate the extent to which the individual choice of leader might make a difference. We assess the political and policy management of Fianna Fáil's leaders using a series of counterfactual case studies for each leader to enable us to establish how these leaders shaped the party and the country. Taking account of the traits of the specific leader while assessing the context in which they led, and using evidence from interviews, memoirs, and a wide secondary literature, we find that in some cases the leader was instrumental in bringing about a change in direction that was unlikely to have taken place under anyone else's leadership. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 67.1945]
67.2128 OCCHETTA, Francesco —
The Italian elections of June 2016 were marked by three fundamental facts, all of which reveal the crisis of traditional political parties. Firstly, an abnormally high abstention rate, secondly, the three-fold division of the Italian political system, and, lastly, the emergence of alternative political movements. After the second ballot of 19 June, the Democratic party suffered a heavy defeat, but remains the first party, with its victory in 45 municipalities, against the 34 obtained by the center-right. The Five Star Movement won 19 second ballots out of 20, coming out on top in Rome and Turin. Milan will set an example for Europe with its bipolar competition model.
67.2129 ÖZTÜRK, Ahmet Erdi —
This article focuses on the complex relations between Turkey's Presidency of Religious Affairs (the Diyanet) and the AKP in the last decade. It claims that the Diyanet, under AKP rule, has been transformed into a pliable state apparatus geared towards implementing the political ideology of the ruling cadre. In exploring this recent transformation, it analyzes [how] this institution's role has become synchronized with the ruling party's discourses and actions, by giving examples from recent discussions on gender, social media, political economy and relations with other social groups. [R] [See Abstr. 67.2654]
67.2130 PALACIOS, Carlos; JOFRÉ, Hugo —
The article contributes to the study of the Government Center (CG). Focused on Chile from 1990 to 2014, it determines the relevance and influence of three specific factors to remain in the CG: technical and political capital, having been part of a presidential campaign, and having a common membership with the President. We provide a bibliographical review about the study object, in an effort to identify and understand its scope. The data and information are descriptively analyzed with Kaplan-Meier curves. We conclude that members who played roles in the campaign command with the president hold high permanence rates: a relationship of trust with the president seems to be a key aspect. [R]
67.2131 PANIAGUA VÁZQUEZ, Abraham; PRADO, Abelardo del —
This research analyzes the campaign proposals on security exposed during the two presidential debates in the 2015 electoral process in Argentina. The theoretical corpus is based on two fronts: “What sustainable” and “utilitarian”, as a methodological strategy was resorted to critical discourse-analysis. The findings show that the campaign proposals correspond to three dimensions: (1) the social reality in which the phenomenon occurs and develops; (2) the relationship of the discursive strategy and action; and (3) the hierarchical structure — policy in which the proposals alter. [R]
67.2132 PAPPAS, Takis S. —
This article takes issue with the common practice of uncritically lumping together as “populist” the various and distinct challengers to democracy in contemporary Europe. It disaggregates and then classifies such challengers into three analytically distinct categories: anti-democrats, nativists, and populists. In so doing, the article reveals the geographical distribution of these categories across Europe, and highlights the value of treating each category based on its unique set of symptoms. It further shows that the gravest threat to contemporary liberalism comes from populist rather than from anti-democratic or nativist parties. [R] [First article of a thematic issue on “The specter haunting Europe”. See also Abstr. 67.1922, 2003, 2065, 2082, 2155, 2163]
67.2133 PARDO BENEYTO, Gonzalo; ABELLÁN LÓPEZ, María Ángeles —
This article points to #OntinyentPartitcipa, an innovative political process framed inside participatory budgeting dynamic. This experience was located in a Valencian city called Ontinyent (Spain). We describe its resources, its context and analyze the role played by civil society. Also, we study public administration role like a principal actor in this process. In order to characterize relationships between citizenship, public administration and theoretical approaches, we use contemporary republicanism and its emphasis to consolidate a participative and inclusive democracy. [R]
67.2134 PARK Hong Min; SMITH, Steven S. —
This article reports the findings of the first survey experiment in which the American public's attitudes about majority rule and minority rights in legislative bodies are explored. We find robust support for both majority rule and minority rights, discover that only a few Americans distinguish between the US House of Representatives and Senate in the application of these principles, and demonstrate that views of majority rule and minority rights can be moved once we introduce respondents to the partisan implications of procedural rules. Moreover, with conflicting theoretical expectations about the effect of political sophistication on attitudes about majority rule and minority rights, we find that higher levels of political sophistication are associated with stronger partisan effects on attitudes about the balance between majority rule and minority rights in Congress. [R, abr.]
67.2135 PARKINSON, Sarah E. —
How do intra-organizational divisions calcify into permanent cleavages? What processes reproduce factions over time? Using the case of Fatah in Lebanon, I argue that informal discursive practices — e.g., gossip, jokes, complaints, storytelling — contribute to the maintenance and reproduction of intra-organizational factions. Specifically, I focus on how networks of meaning-laden, money-centric discourse structure relations among militants who identify as being “Old Fatah”. I demonstrate that while these practices frequently originate in the organizational realm, cadres subsequently reproduce them within kinship, marriage, and friendship networks. Examining how symbolic practice comprises social structure thus provides important insight into the politics of organizations such as militant groups, social movements, and political parties. [R, abr.]
67.2136 PEI Minxin —
Relying on the historical record and research on transitions from authoritarian rule, this essay questions the continued prospect of one-party rule in China. The fall of one-party rule generally occurs in two phases: a prolonged period of decay, followed by rapid breakdown. Like other autocratic regimes, China's Communist Party will find its survival imperiled as the country enters the upper middle-income, or “transition” zone, where most non-oil autocracies have historically fallen. Compounding this, China exhibits many of the key symptoms of regime decay. These factors suggest that regime breakdown will occur, and will likely proceed via “revolution”: limited initial reform, followed by revolution. [R]
67.2137 PETTERSSON, Katarina; LIEBKIND, Karmela; SAKKI, Inari —
Individuals with an immigrant or other ethnic minority background have begun to find the Sweden Democrats. This study delves into this paradoxical matter by exploring how these politicians discursively account for their ethnic-minority-belonging in relation to their anti-immigration political affiliation. The critical discursive psychological analysis of blog entries by populist radical-right politicians with an immigrant or other ethnic minority background shows that their ethnic identity negotiations were highly complex and multifaceted. Typically, an ethnic minority identity was accepted at a superficial, assigned level, whereas a Swedish identity was actively claimed at a level of personal assertion. This article analyzes the discursive resources that the bloggers drew upon in order to construct and negotiate their ethnic identities and motivate their political choices. [R, abr.]
67.2138 PILLAR, Paul R. —
The author assesses how Americans’ unusually favorable circumstances and experiences shape their perceptions of the rest of the world. He argues that as a result of these experiences, American have difficulty understanding the security and economic challenges facing other nations and overestimate how well those nations can create stable democracies. [R]
67.2139 POLK, Jonathan; KÖLLN, Ann-Kristin —
Intraparty politics is a precursor to political parties’ policy proposals, manifestos, selected leaders and candidates, which often involves many actors and is regularly accompanied by tensions. This essay introduces the contents of a special issue devoted to the internal dynamics of political parties in Europe. We connect each contribution of the issue to three key aspects of intraparty research: (1) sources of information on internal party politics and methods of analysis, (2) how contemporary parties reconcile or otherwise address disagreements within the party and (3) the electoral and other ramifications of internal party tensions or divisions. Overall, the comparative case studies and cross-national comparisons across Western and Eastern Europe included in this issue show that considerations of intraparty dynamics advance scholarly research on alliances and coalitions, party organizations and party competition. [R] [First article of a thematic issue on “The lives of the party: contemporary approaches to the study of intraparty politics in Europe”, edited by the authors. See also Abstr. 67.1915, 1950, 2024, 2046, 2060, 2186]
67.2140 PRAKASH, Deepa; ILGIT, Asli —
Extant studies suggest that criticism of state practices may create ontological crises in states, thus prompting emotional responses. This article examines what happens when target states reject external criticism, and the failure of outside attempts to shame and criticize. We show that recipients can view international criticism as opportunities to consolidate state identity rather than ontological crises. Using Turkey's foreign policy towards Israel, we focus on the agency of weak states by expanding the range of emotions stemming from non-acceptance of criticism and by emphasizing the role of leaders when crafting emotional responses to negative representations. [R]
67.2141 PRESSINGER, Maria; SCHOEN, Harald —
Inter-election volatility is essential for the functioning of democracy. In accounting for the underlying processes prior research focused on campaign volatility, while neglecting between-campaign volatility. This neglect is not warranted however. Between-campaign periods may include multiple events that set the stage for electoral competition and shape citizens’ political cognitions, attitudes and party preference until the next election. Depending on the flow of political communication, between-campaign periods may considerably contribute to inter-election volatility. Drawing on a data-set from an intra- and inter-election panel survey conducted in the 2009 and 2013 German federal elections, the evidence suggests that between-campaign changes in party preferences and political attitudes were at least as important as within-campaign changes in contributing to inter-election switching. [R, abr.]
67.2142 PRUYSERS, Scott; CROSS, William —
While the negative campaigning literature has witnessed tremendous growth in recent years, the precise targets of campaign negativity have not been fully explored, as candidates and their parties are largely treated as the same target. Likewise, although scholars are increasingly writing about the personalization of politics, this literature has not considered whether parties can “personalize” their opponents by focusing their messaging and attacks more on individual leaders than the parties they lead. We develop the concept of negative personalization, which is an emphasis on opposing party leaders in campaign communication more so than on the parties that they lead. Exploring recent election campaigns in Canada's largest province, we document the extent to which parties engage in negative personalization and suggest hypotheses for the factors leading to increased negative personalization. [R, abr.]
67.2143 PUIRSÉIL, Niamh —
This article traces the ideological development of Fianna Fáil from its foundation in 1926 to the present day. It looks at its origins as an antisystem party formed to dismantle the Anglo-Irish treaty and how it established itself and its attitude towards the state thereafter. It identifies two distinct ideological periods, the first dominated by the outlook of Eamon de Valera, which was frugal, autarkic, culturally Gaelic and socially conservative. The second developed under the leadership of his successor Seán Lemass, was based on free trade, neo-corporatism and was culturally Anglophone and has endured with only minor changes. [R] [See Abstr. 67.1945]
67.2144 PYEATT, Nicholas L.; YANUS, Alixandra B. —
Partisanship and gender are powerful heuristic cues used by citizens to understand their elected officials’ ideology. When these cues send complementary signals — a Democratic woman or a Republican man — we expect they will aid citizens in evaluating their leaders’ political ideology. However, when partisanship and gender send conflicting signals, we expect citizens will be more likely to misperceive their leaders’ beliefs. We test this proposition using ideological evaluations of incumbent US senators collected in the 2010 and 2012 Cooperative Congressional Election Studies. The findings support our hypotheses, illustrating voters’ reliance on both partisan and gender cues. Our results suggest potential consequences for not only Republican women, but also Democratic men. [R]
67.2145 QUINLAN, Stephen; OKOLIKJ, Martin —
Our study explores the declining vote of Fianna Fáil, using a unique fusion of data from the 1989–1999 European Election Studies and the 2002–2016 Irish National Election Studies. We show the weakening of Fianna Fáil's dominant position is due to electoral change: shifting voter identities and the growing importance of economic evaluations in deciding the vote, which became prominent in the 2000s. Today, there are fewer partisans in general and this has impacted the party, especially since the Global Financial Crisis, when the proportion of Fianna Fáil identifiers dropped substantially. Meanwhile, the party relies on the votes of the oldest generation, a declining slice of the electorate. Our findings have implications for why dominant parties are declining and for our understanding of the Irish party system. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 67.1945]
67.2146 QUINN, Thomas —
This British Labour Party's leadership election of 2015 resulted in the unexpected victory of the radical-left candidate, J. Corbyn. [I examine] the contest using Stark's academic model of leadership elections, based on the tripod of selection-criteria acceptability, electability and competence, and finds it wanting. Selection rules, which are downplayed in Stark's model, are then examined, as Labour used a new selection system based on one-member-one-vote in 2015. While these are found to have had some impact, Corbyn's victory cannot be explained primarily by institutions. The article reconsiders Stark's model and shows that it failed because of the diminished significance of electability as a selection criterion in the Labour leadership contest of 2015, reflecting the circumstances in which the contest took place, in the aftermath of a demoralizing election defeat for Labour. [R]
67.2147 RAABE, Johannes —
This paper argues that it is important to investigate the distinction between mixed systems genuinely aiming for an overall principle — e.g., balancing the demands of representativeness and accountability — and mixed systems born out of compromise bargaining without any particular general goal. In order to analyze the relationship between the choice process of a mixed electoral system and its eventual performance, this paper conducts a novel case-study survey gathering the data necessary to distinguish between principle-guided systems and systems resulting from self-interested horse-trading. Taking all mixed-member electoral system in the world as a sample and investigating the effect of the type of choice-process on the representativeness and concentration of the party system, the empirical analysis shows that principle-guided design indeed leads to a superior performance of the electoral system. [R, abr.]
67.2148 RAFTER, Kevin —
The Fianna Fáil general election campaign in 1977 is widely seen as a breakthrough in political communication and election campaigning in Ireland. This “modern” and “professional” campaign is considered a key contest between previous campaigns and those that followed. This article, however, challenges the view that the 1977 campaign marked a key moment in terms of campaign professionalization. Rather the argument is that the seminal moment only occurs two decades later, in 1997, with the first general election campaign of B. Ahern's tenure as Fianna Fáil leader. In order to assess these two campaigns, the evolution in political communication and election campaign techniques in Ireland is examined through the prism of what are labeled “Four Ages” based on election dates: 1922–1965; 1969–1992; 1997–2011; and an emerging digital era post-2016. [R] [See Abstr. 67.1945]
67.2149 RAHAT, Gideon; HAZAN, Reuven Y.; BEN-NUN BLOOM, Pazit —
This article analyzes the dynamics of the 2015 Israeli elections by examining the movement of votes within ideological blocs and the manifestation of multiple identities in the electoral campaigns. The premature collapse of Netanyahu's government led Israel to general elections only two years and two months after the previous elections. The elections were portrayed as a horse race between the Likud and the Zionist Union. Indeed, both parties gained some support in comparison to the previous elections, yet almost all of their electoral gains were from parties in their own bloc. The politics of multiple identities steered these two parties to appeal to voters within their blocs, and also clearly defined the borders of these blocs. An exception was the new centrist Kulanu, which succeeded in capturing the strategic pivotal position. Likud's clear-cut “victory” over the Zionist Union led Kulanu to join the Likud's right-wing religious coalition. [R]
67.2150 RAINA, Ajay —
This paper asserts that ethnically dominated political citizenship defines the deep structure of the Malaysian regime, in congruence with ethnic Malay social demand. This, rather than the commonly suggested electoral gerrymander, prevents partisan turnovers because opposition parties, tied to the same congruence, offer no strategic gains to alter the status quo. [R]
67.2151 RAPP, Carolin; ACKERMANN, Kathrin —
This paper scrutinizes the impact of intolerance toward diverse ethnic, religious, and cultural groups on an individual's willingness to actively engage in non-violent protest. Following new insights, we examine the individual as well as the ecological effect of social intolerance on protest behavior. Drawing from insights of social psychology and communication science, we expect that the prevalence of intolerance reinforces the positive effect of individual-level intolerance on protest participation. From a rational choice perspective, however, a negative moderating effect is expected, as the expression of opinions becomes redundant for intolerant individuals in an intolerant society. We base our multilevel analyses on data from the World Values Surveys covering 32 established democracies. Our results reveal that intolerance leads to more non-violent protest participation. [R, abr.]
67.2152 REHMANN, Jan —
Reflecting on the Sanders campaign from the perspective of an underlying crisis of hegemony, I show basically two things: (1) The astonishing appeal of the campaign can be fully grasped only if we take into account that today's neoliberal capitalism is in a hegemonic crisis, with corresponding impacts on people's attitudes and expectations; and (2) the Sanders campaign intervened effectively into this hegemonic crisis by shifting the coordinates of people's common sense to the left. Even though Sanders did not become the nominee of the Democratic Party, his campaign changed the US ideological landscape in a remarkable way, opening the possibility of establishing a sustainable democratic-socialist presence. [R]
67.2153 REILLY, Benjamin —
Distinctive aspects of Australian democracy-high levels of participation, aggregative voting systems, and a utilitarian preference for government to play the role of both rule-maker and arbiter-are rooted in the institutional configuration of Australian politics. This essay argues that Australia's unique combination of majoritarian and proportional preferential electoral models has seen the emergence of a political system which, for the most part, has balanced the need for strong government in the lower House of Representatives with broader representation in the Senate. Preferential voting also has tended to push Australian politics toward the center, avoiding the polarization found in comparable democracies such as the United States. As a result, Australian electoral institutions are increasingly being examined, advocated, or adopted elsewhere. [R]
67.2154 REKKER, Roderik —
This study examined how the ideological correlates of left-right identification in the Netherlands changed between 1980 and 2008, and whether these changes were driven by cohort replacement. Analyses on repeated cross-sectional data revealed an increasing association with immigration and a decreasing association with redistribution, secularism, and civil liberties. Cohort differences were found for cultural attitudes: secularism was most important for voters who were adolescent between 1917 and 1960, while civil liberties were most important for the 1960–1980 cohort and immigration was relatively important for the 1980–2008 cohort. Consequently, over-time changes in the importance of cultural issues, but not redistribution, were partly driven by cohort replacement. This indicates that the left-right distinction is partly shaped by circumstances during voters’ adolescent years. [R]
67.2155 REYNIÉ, Dominique —
Across advanced democracies, a new strain of populism of the right that combines hostility toward elites with opposition to the EU, immigrants, and Islam, has emerged with force. Proponents of this “heritage populism” emphasize the protection of heritage, whether tangible (living standards) or intangible (ways of life). In France, the National Front (FN) is the face of this new populist strain. This paper traces the evolution of the FN from a fringe party of the far-right to a mainstream party with growing broad-based appeal. The rise of the FN and the prospect that its leader, M. Le Pen, may capture the presidency in 2017 represent an acute threat to liberal democracy in France and to the political stability of Europe generally. [R] [See Abstr. 67.2132]
67.2156 REZNIK, Oleksandr —
The article examines the determinants for participation in two Ukrainian revolutions, the Orange Revolution in 2004 and the Revolution of Dignity in 2013–2014. These revolutions were proof of the social movement that accompanies post-communist transition in an Eastern European country. This social movement, in a transitional society in the process of redefining traditional ethno-cultural identities, defined a value-rational understanding of democracy and market economy. A result of Ukrainian government action, these two revolts have both similar and different features. Both protests are the result of macroregional division and the population's foreign policy priorities. However, in the Orange Revolution, these factors also combined with principles of linguistic identity, age, and status differentiation. In contrast, participation in the Revolution of Dignity was shaped by support for democratic and market values. [R, abr.]
67.2157 RIVERA, Jose M.; JARÁIZ, Erika —
This article identifies the components of the vote to the parties that obtained parliamentary representation in the last regional elections held in Catalonia in September 2015. We use the technique of structural equation modeling (SEM) that allows us to observe the direct and indirect relationships between the explanatory variables and the voters’ decision to vote for each party. Our approach is premised on the fact that these elections pivoted around an issue that has become one of the main explanatory factors of the vote, namely their position regarding the process of independence; and in this regard they have effectively been plebiscitary elections. Moreover, we see that voters’ behavior is explained differently depending on whether voters voted for parties or coalitions in favor or against independence. [R]
67.2158 RODRIGUES SANCHES, Edalina; GORBUNOVA, Ekaterina —
Forty years after the Carnation Revolution, the relatively young Portuguese democracy is experiencing dramatically low levels of public specific support for democracy. This article tests the leverage of demand-side and supply-side accounts to explain differentials in public satisfaction with democracy. Through ordinary least-squares regression-analyses that draw on the unique data of the “Barometer 40 Years of Democracy in Portugal (2014)”, this articles shows that age cohort, identification with extreme parties, evaluation of the country's political past, and economic performance are strong correlates of citizens’ specific support for democracy. [R] [See Abstr. 67.2536]
67.2159 ROHRSCHNEIDER, Robert; WHITEFIELD, Stephen —
Given the rise of EU-skepticism in Germany and elsewhere, spatial models suggest that the SPD and the CDU/CSU have incentives to move towards a more critical position about integration. However, mainstream parties have developed a pro-integration reputation over several decades so it is difficult for them to adopt a stance reflecting outright opposition to Europe's integration. A comparison of party positions in 2008 and 2013 shows that the SPD hardly changed its policy stances on EU issues, whereas the CDU/CSU moved noticeably to a more EU-critical stance. However, situating German parties within the West European universe of party families shows that both remain quite positive about integration. The upshot of this is to illustrate the “blind corner” of party representation on integration issues in the German party system. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 67.1983]
67.2160 ROMÃO, Wagner —
The article explores the relationships between the political status of coordinating structures of participatory budgeting (PB) and the associative profile of civil society representatives in four Brazilian experiences. Our focus is to take into consideration the location of the coordination office of PB within the municipal government, the characteristics of the PB Council and the party affiliation of civil society councilors. The results show that the higher political status of PB at local government, the more the council will be fought over and occupied by representatives affiliated to the incumbent political party. That is to say, a conflict occurs where the most organized groups channel their strategies to occupy the political space towards the PB. [R]
67.2161 RUEDA, Miguel R. —
Vote buying is widespread in developing democracies despite the secret ballot. What explains its resilience? I argue that brokers condition future payments on published electoral results to enforce these transactions and that this is effective at inducing voters’ compliance only when the results of small voting groups are available. Using monitors’ and citizens’ reports of electoral manipulation and survey data from Colombia, I find a robust negative correlation between the average polling station size and various measures of vote buying. Evidence from a variety of identification strategies suggests that this relationship can be attributed to aggregate monitoring sustaining these transactions and not to the brokers’ increased ability to identify compliers or other characteristics of places where polling stations are small. [R, abr.]
67.2162 RUIBAL, Alba —
One of the main innovations in the interaction between social movements and the state in Latin America since the democratization processes is the use of courts as venues for social change and the intervention of social actors in constitutional politics. Drawing from the empirical study of the process of strategic litigation for abortion rights in Brazil, this paper shows what type of changes can take place when social actors set out to pursue a legal strategy on a highly controversial matter, and in a transitional context, where courts are in the midst of a redefinition of their institutional role in the political system, and movements have not yet been central actors in judicialization processes. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 67.1541]
67.2163 RUPNIK, Jacques —
Populist and nativist political parties have emerged throughout Europe, yet only in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) have these illiberal democratic parties gained power. This difference in political fortune can be traced to the countries’ divergent conceptions of nationhood. For CEE countries, nationhood is rooted in ethnic and cultural homogeneity; for Western European countries, it is defined by universalism and diversity. As market globalization and unchecked migration have spurred fear among CEE voters of a nationhood under threat, illiberal democratic leaders have gained power by pledging to defend it. The crisis of liberalism and rise of populist nationalism are assuredly pan-European phenomena. Can the EU, the last elitist project in the age of populism, overcome its internal divisions and contain the illiberal drift? [R] [See Abstr. 67.2132]
67.2164 SAIKKONEN, Inga A.-L. —
Despite extensive research on electoral turnout in developed democracies, we know relatively little about the determinants of electoral participation in (electoral) autocracies. Yet, electoral mobilization is crucial to understanding electoral authoritarian regime dynamics and democratic regression. This article studies the “socio-economic roots” of electoral authoritarianism by using original local-level data from a prominent contemporary electoral authoritarian regime, Russia. The article shows how the electoral mobilization of certain institutionally and socio-economically state-dependent demographic sectors was a key part in Russia's transition from a competitive to hegemonic authoritarian regime between 2000 and 2004. An original local-level data-set allows us to test the hypotheses using multilevel models, controlling for several socioeconomic and contextual variables at both regional and local levels. [R, abr.]
67.2165 SAJJAD, Fatima; JAVAID, Umbreen —
This article examines the evolution of the idea of the Turkish model as constructed by academics from the West, the Muslim world and Turkey during the three consecutive terms of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) rule in Turkey. It focuses on the changing political landscape of Turkey, the Middle East and the world at large [since] 9/11 [2001] and the emerging issues and debates around the idea of this model. Based on a careful selection and examination of 145 academic articles on the model published during the extended rule of AKP in Turkey (2002–2014), the study illustrates that the “Turkish model” has held disparate meanings and generated diverse debates overtime. [R, abr.]
67.2166 SALGON, Jean-Michel —
After five years of disputed government management, the PJD Islamist party has once again won the 7 October Moroccan vote. This success is not due to significant economic and social results, but to various political factors. The biggest progress has been achieved by the Authenticity and Modernity Party (PAM), which more than doubled the number of its MPs and has today become the main opposition to the new government. [R] [First article of a thematic issue on “Morocco: an ongoing rise”. See also Abstr. 67.2069, 2178, 2197, 2546, 2675]
67.2167 SALLEO, Ferdinando —
Dissatisfied US voters will choose the “least worst” candidate in the November 2016 Presidential election. Where D. Trump is accused of irresponsibility and improvisation, the electorate blames H. Clinton for not being transparent, despite her experience in politics and her good knowledge of the international scene. The result of the election is essential to global balance and political stability, in a dysfunctional world that lacks a decision center. Despite the feeling of the US's decline, it has the capacity to conjugate culture and technology in a way which influences progress in advanced societies. It also has the soft power of democratic values.
67.2168 SANTANA-PEREIRA, José; RAIMUNDO, Filipa; COSTA PINTO, António —
Several years after the transition to democracy, positive attitudes towards the authoritarian past are still observable in Portugal: the belief that the previous regime had more good things than bad things is expressed by about one-fifth of the Portuguese. What explains this nostalgic sentiment? Are factors such as socialization under the regime, party identification or religiosity more important than satisfaction with democracy and the state of the economy? The empirical analysis suggests that the relevance of these factors varies considerably, but socialization phases lead to different stances on the past both in routine times and in times of economic crisis. [R] [See Abstr. 67.2536]
67.2169 SARGSYAN, Irena L.; BENNETT, Andrew —
How are some rebel leaders able to sustain violent collective action but others not? Most theories focus on leaders’ use of selective incentives and efforts to lower their transaction costs and raise those of the government. We argue that a leader's ability to arouse emotions of anger, humiliation, and fear is also critical. Foreign leaders and former exiles typically lack the legitimacy and understanding of local politics necessary to incite such emotions. We test this argument in three case studies in Iraq between 2003 and 2011. In this period, the Sadrist Trend sustained violent collective action and gained lasting political power, the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq failed to maintain its influence, and al-Qaeda in Iraq first gained and then lost its ability to mobilize violence. [R]
67.2170 SAUGER, Nicolas; GROFMAN, Bernard —
Decided by the executive, redistrictings in France have been claimed to have substantial partisan bias in favor of the right. We examine the evidence for this claim in terms of France's left bloc versus right bloc politics, combining information from both the first and the second round of France's two round electoral system. We also examine data at the constituency level to look at factors, such as malapportionment, that can affect bias. As France is characterized by a pattern of a limited number of redistrictings, population inequalities have grown in legislative constituencies between plans. Although the procedures used to draw constituency boundaries for the French Assembly are rather opaque, and under the control of political authorities, partisan bias appears as minuscule. [R]
67.2171 SAYARI, Sabri —
Turkey's snap parliamentary election in November 2015 took place in an environment of growing political violence and terrorism resulting from the renewal of the Kurdish conflict in the southeast and two major suicide bombings carried out by ISIS. Presenting the coalition arithmetic, the article first examines the failure to form a government after the previous election five months earlier. It then examines the campaign for the November election, including party strategies, key issues and the role of the media, before analyzing the results and the election winners and losers. In restoring a parliamentary majority for the Justice and Development Party (AKP) that has governed Turkey continuously for the past 13 years, the November election marked the basic continuity of Turkey's predominant party system. [R]
67.2172 SCHLENKER, Andrea —
In spite of the recent increase in dual citizenship, there are widespread fears that this double status undermines loyalty towards the state, understood as identification with and political participation in the country of residence. We analyze whether there are systematic differences between dual citizens, mono citizens, and foreign residents in this respect, based on data from a 2013 survey of dual citizens in Switzerland with very different migration backgrounds. The results reveal that controlling for migration-related and socio-demographic factors, dual citizens are more loyal in many respects than foreign residents, but there are no significant differences between dual citizens and mono citizens in their level of identification with Switzerland and political participation there. They are even more likely than mono citizens to participate in serving its interests. [R, abr.]
67.2173 SCHMITT-BECK, Rüdiger —
This article explores why AfD supporters chose this party at the 2013 Federal Election and at the 2014 European and eastern German State (Land) Elections. At the Federal Election the AfD's electorate was composed of two groups: a minority of instrumental issue-voters that were drawn to the AfD by its emphasis and positioning on the Euro crisis, and a majority of “late supporters” that decided close to Election Day and were moved more by expressive motives, most notably xenophobic sentiments like those identified in other European countries as a main source of support for right-wing populist parties. The Euro crisis ceased to be important for AfD support whereas xenophobic motives became more central. [R] [See Abstr. 67.1983]
67.2174 SEEBERG, Henrik Bech; SLOTHUUS, Rune; STUBAGER, Rune —
A premise of the mass-elite linkage at the heart of representative democracy is that voters notice changes in political parties’ policy positions and update their party perceptions accordingly. However, recent studies question the ability of voters accurately to perceive changes in parties’ positions. The study advances this literature with a two-wave panel survey design that measured voters’ perception of party positions before and after a major policy shift by parties in the government coalition in Denmark 2011–2013. Two key findings extend previous work. (1) voters do indeed pay attention to parties when they visibly change policy position. (2) voters update their perceptions of the party positions much more accurately than would have been expected if they merely relied on a “coalition heuristic” as a rule-of-thumb. [R, abr.]
67.2175 SEKI, Katsunori; WHITTEN, Guy D. —
The 2013 Bundestag elections took place at a time when public opinion was strongly focused on a wide range of economic issues. But, given the coalition government and the complex array of policymakers whose hands were on the wheels of the German economy, some economic voting models would predict that the economy would play little role in deciding these elections. We use a mixture of aggregate and survey data to test what a range of different economic voting models predicted about the 2013 Bundestag elections and the extent to which these predictions were supported. The results from this exercise provide insights not only about the nature of the 2013 elections, but also about the applicability and adaptability of economic voting models to different political and economic circumstances. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 67.1983]
67.2176 SENOU, Jean Innocent —
The articulation of the principle of limiting presidential mandates in African constitutions has not resolved the issue of African leaders’ hold on power by other means. This raises the more general question of political development and democratic consolidation in the continent. This refusal of political alternation undermines the general standards of democracy and has harmful consequences. The second mandate can only be legitimized by an intention to foster national development transcendent to personal interests and rooted by previous social or economic successes. This is definitely not the case in Africa and both internal and conventional law have proven ineffective to stop these practices.
67.2177 SEVENANS, Julie; WALGRAVE, Stefaan; EPPING, Gwendolyn Joanna —
Political agenda-setting studies have shown that political agendas are influenced by the media agenda. Researchers in the field of media and politics are now focusing on the mechanisms underlying this pattern. This article contributes to the literature by focusing not on aggregate, behavioral political attention for issues (e.g., parliamentary questions or legislation), but on MP's individual, cognitive attention for specific news stories. Drawing upon a survey of Belgian MPs administered shortly after exposure to news stories, the study shows that MPs are highly selective in exploiting media cues. They pay more attention to both prominent and useful news stories, but a story's usefulness is more important for cognitive processes that are closely linked to MPs’ real behavior in parliament. [R, abr.]
67.2178 SFEIR, Antoine —
On the occasion of the 63rd anniversary of the Revolution of the King and the People, the Moroccan monarch delivered an Aug. 20 speech around four themes: inner Maghreb brotherhood, anchoring on the African continent, humanist reception of migrants, and affirmation of a tolerant Islam. Also addressing the Moroccan diaspora for the first time, Mohammed VI acted as the defender of a religion of peace, and the champion of the fight against terrorism. [R] [See Abstr. 67.2166]
67.2179 SHAMS-UR-REHMAN, Ghulam —
The Taliban phenomenon is often studied through the prism of fundamentalism, political Islam, and Jihadism without analyzing the historical authority patterns of Afghan society. The Taliban emerged from within a network of the Islamists who resisted the Soviet occupation. It is also assumed that the Taliban's Islamic ideology is deeply rooted in their Pashtun culture. The Afghan Islamists and Taliban might have taken ideological and logistical support from external actors, but their existence and survival is based on their acceptability by Afghan society. It is argued here that the Islamists and Taliban's desire to rule over Kabul has been the outcome of a historic struggle of the religious class for power. This article contends that suitable grounds for Afghan religious leadership were prepared long before the emergence of the Taliban. [R, abr.]
67.2180 SHARMA, Sandeep; NAIR, Pradeep —
The Tibetan government's arrival at the horizon of democracy is viewed as another stone solidifying the foundation of Tibetan freedom movement. In 2011, the Dalai Lama devolved all his political power and restricted himself to be the spiritual head only. In the wake of this development, in 2011, first direct elections were conducted for the post of Prime Minister and the MPs of Tibetan Government-in-Exile. Recently concluded elections in April-May 2016 were only the second elections of this type. This short note looks into the governance structure and functioning of the Tibetan Government-in-exile and reviews the recently concluded Tibetan general elections with a view that how through these democratic political processes the exiled community has transplanted, institutionalized and democratized its government structures to establish a state-like polity in a stateless and territory-less exile. [R, abr.]
67.2181 SINGH, Shane P. —
Compulsory voting is known to increase electoral participation, but its second-order effects are not well established. I argue that vote-choices are a relatively poor reflection of individuals’ preferences under compulsory voting, as it boosts participation among those who are unlikely to cast well-reasoned ballots — the politically disinterested and unknowledgeable and those who see elections as flawed or pointless. I test this expectation with cross-national survey data, and I conduct supplementary tests with regional survey data from Switzerland, which employs compulsory voting in select cantons. Results from both sets of analyses support my expectations, suggesting that elections conducted under compulsory rules are relatively unlikely to signal the preferences of the voting population. [R]
67.2182 SJOBERG, Fredrik M. —
In Armenia, the ruling party's vote-share, as a proportion of all registered voters, increases with 2.5 percentage points in polling stations where the chairperson was randomly assigned to the ruling party. Fraud forensics suggests that one of the mechanisms behind this was falsification of the results protocol during the count. I conjecture that fraud is used only in high-stakes elections and that election observers are unable to detect it. [R, abr.]
67.2183 SMITH, Glen —
This study examines whether broadcast news reduces negativity toward political leaders by exposing partisans to opposing viewpoints. For analysis, both exposure to broadcast news and variation in media content are used to predict changes in feelings toward the candidates during the [US] 2008 presidential election. The results suggest that increased exposure to broadcast news increased partisans’ favorability toward the out-party candidate. In addition, increased coverage of the candidates was followed by increased favorability among members of the opposing party. These results demonstrate the benefits of exposure to two-sided communications flows for the reduction of animosity between the political parties. Moreover, these results suggest that public negativity toward political leaders might be even worse if not for the large amount of overlap between the audiences for partisan and mainstream news outlets. [R]
67.2184 SMITH, Glen —
This article examines when partisan media effects occur during presidential campaigns. I argue that partisan media are most likely to influence candidate impressions early in the election cycle, when voters have less crystallized impressions of the candidates and are less motivated to defend their party's nominee. Using multiple methods and two large-scale surveys spanning 2008, I show that Fox News affected favorability toward B. Obama during the first five months of the election year, but those effects largely disappeared over the last five months. The results varied by political knowledge, however, as Fox News affected low-knowledge viewers throughout the entire year, but only affected highknowledge viewers early in the election cycle. [R, abr.]
67.2185 SMITH, Julie —
To overcome internal divisions in the Labour Party, H. Wilson renegotiated the UK's terms of membership and held a referendum on whether the country should stay in. The result — a two to one majority in favor of remaining — was thought to have ended the question marks over British membership definitively. Four decades later, it was the Conservatives who were divided over Europe; Prime Minister D. Cameron promised reform, renegotiation and a referendum. Yet the stakes in 2016 were rather higher than in 1975 and the challenges far greater. This article assesses the similarities between the two prime ministers’ decisions to renegotiate the UK's terms of membership and the frameworks established for the ensuing referendums and notes significant differences that render over-interpreting the parallels a risky business. [R, abr.]
67.2186 SOMER-TOPCU, Zeynep —
[Although] a change in party leadership is an important event for a party organization, we do not know how these leadership changes affect voter perceptions about party policy positions. On the one hand, we may expect party leadership changes to renew attention to the party, educate voters about its policy positions, and hence reduce disagreement among voters about party positions. On the other hand, rival parties may use a leadership change as an opportunity to defame the party, its leadership, and policies, and hence, increase voter confusion about the party's policies. Using data from seven Western European democracies, I show that leadership changes help parties reduce voter disagreement about party policy positions. This effect is stronger if the new leader shifts the party's policy positions. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 67.2139]
67.2187 SONG, B.K. —
I study whether TV coverage helps voters punish politicians involved in a scandal. Specifically, I compare the vote-shares of US senators implicated in scandals from 1970 through 2000 in two different types of media markets: in-state and out-of-state. An in-state media market is centered in a given state, and an out-of-state is located outside a given state. Therefore, the media consumers in an out-of-state media market receive news contents that focus on neighboring states’ politicians. I find that US senators implicated in scandals receive smaller vote-share in in-state media markets. The results suggest that better access to political news helps voters make more informed decisions. [R]
67.2188 SØRENSEN, Rune Jørgen —
The influx of immigrants to Norway over the last decades is a large-scale natural experiment. This paper exploits municipal-level variations in the immigrant population (1977–2011) to estimate the causal effects on voter support for the right-wing, anti-immigration Progress Party. The results indicate that voters keep incumbents accountable for permissive immigration policies. Immigration from non-Western countries (Africa, Asia, Latin America) has increased electoral support for the Progress Party. However, the effects are quite modest and noticeable only in the initial phases of immigration. Survey data covering ten elections (1989–2011) indicate a similar development in anti-immigration attitudes. The primary immigration shock tends to burn out quite fast as people get direct experience of immigrants on a daily basis. [R]
67.2189 SOROKA, Stuart, et al. —
This article examines the impact of news photos on support for military action. In 2011, respondents were asked about support for ongoing military involvement in Afghanistan while being randomly exposed to one of two photos — one of a soldier with a child, the other of a soldier with a gun. The former photo increased expressed support for war; and the effect was greater for those who self-identify as being very interested in international affairs. Three years later, a follow-up experiment was fielded that looked both at the past intervention in Afghanistan and ongoing interventions in Syria; results were very similar. Both experiments speak to the potentially profound role of mass media in generating support (or not) for foreign military engagements. [R, abr.]
67.2190 SPOON, Jae-Jae; KLÜVER, Heike —
[We examine] the relationship between parties’ participation in coalition governments and their perception by voters. [We] argue that because of the blurred lines of responsibility in multiparty cabinets, it is difficult for voters to correctly perceive the positions of coalition parties. [Moreover], it is expected that the internal functioning of coalition cabinets affects the extent to which coalition parties struggle to get their message out to voters. It is hypothesized that intra-cabinet conflict is negatively related to misperception. To test the theoretical expectations, we combine data on the left-right policy positions of political parties from the Comparative Manifestos Project with data on how these positions are perceived by voters gathered from the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems from 1996 to 2011. [R, abr.]
67.2191 STARSKI, Paulina —
Recent case law of the German Constitutional Court clearly favors the right to an effective opposition against the right to equality between representatives. A recent ruling of the Karlsruhe Court has categorically denied the opposition's constitutional prerogative to claim protection of their special rights during a “qualified Grand Coalition”, going so far as to forbid it in an obiter dictum. Taking into account that “grand coalitions” are by no means exceptional in German parliamentary life and that they will not lose their political relevance in the future, the Court's decision might be a turning point in the functioning of government coalitions in Germany.
67.2192 STEEVES, Jeffrey —
The new 2010 Kenya Constitution introduced a devolved system of government that has radically transformed the Kenyan polity. The political elite which operated primarily at the national level now encounters a new competitive political arena with the introduction of county governments under devolution. In particular, a new post of County Governor has surpassed in power calculations both the traditional MP and the new position of senator. In the 2013 elections, the focus was on the national arena; in 2017, all this will change. [R]
67.2193 STEGER, Wayne P. —
The 2016 [US] Republican presidential nomination challenges arguments about political party insiders’ influence on the outcome. This article argues, first, that party insider influence is conditional on the participation, coalescence, and timing of party stakeholders behind a front-runner during the invisible primary, and second, that party insider influence has probably declined since the 2000 presidential election. Data on endorsements by elite elected officials in open presidential nominations from 1984 to 2016 show that party insiders’ participation and convergence of support behind the front-runner is less extensive than what was found by M. Cohen, et al. [The Party Decides: Presidential Nominations Before and After Reform, Chicago, 2008), though the datasets differ. [R, abr.]
67.2194 STEGMAIER, Mary; MARCINKIEWICZ, Kamil; JANKOWSKI, Michael —
Do different types of preferential-list PR systems create different incentives for how MPs vote? To examine this, we compare the quasi-list system of Poland, where only preference votes determine which candidates win seats, to the flexible-list system in the Czech Republic, where the 5 percent preference vote threshold required to override the party ranking of candidates gives the party greater power in influencing which candidates become MPs. We analyze roll-call votes in the 2007–2011 Sejm and the 2010–2013 Czech Chamber of Deputies and, after controlling for party and MP characteristics, we find that in both countries, MPs with lower preference vote shares are more likely to vote along with their party. But, when we compare the strength of this relationship, we observe substantial differences. [R, abr.]
67.2195 STEWART, Patrick A.; EUBANKS, Austin D.; MILLER, Jason —
The 2016 [US] Republican Party presidential primary debates were unprecedented in the amount of media and public interest they generated. Substantially driven by curiosity about reality television celebrity D. Trump, the initial debates hosted by FOX News and CNN both reflected and validated interest in his candidacy while proffering attention to a full slate of more traditional presidential contenders in front of boisterous audiences. This study considers these audiences’ response. Whether applause, laughter, booing, or combinations thereof, these group utterances provide a reliable metric by which insights may be derived concerning partisan attitudes towards Trump and the other candidates, as well as the unity of the Republican Party. [R, abr.]
67.2196 STOCKEMER, Daniel; ROCHER, Francois —
This article attempts to explain declining levels of voter turnout among young adults in terms of decreasing levels of political knowledge. Using data from a representative national survey of the Canadian electorate conducted in 2007, we find through descriptive and inferential statistics that younger individuals are more politically illiterate than older generations by a margin of 20–30 percentage points. We also detect that this generational political knowledge gap accounts for approximately half of the turnout gap that exists between voters in their early 20s and voters in their 50s. Our results further demonstrate that eliminating the knowledge gap would significantly increase turnout among young voters by 15 percentage points. [R]
67.2197 STORA, Benjamin —
Deeply Muslim as Commander of the Faithful in the land of Islam, and strong supporter of the monarchical structure as the legacy of a long history, King Mohammed VI's path illustrates a search to combine tradition and modernity of Morocco, at the entrance the 21st c. The author, a recognized specialist in Maghreb history, looks at over sixteen years of reign. [R] [See Abstr. 67.2166]
67.2198 STRIJBIS, Oliver; ARNESEN, Sveinung; BERNHARD, Laurent —
This article analyzes the effect of the expected closeness on turnout for 56 direct-democratic votes held in Switzerland between 2012 and 2015. It is the first study to measure the expected closeness by using data obtained from prediction markets. It clarifies empirically the relation between the expected closeness and the levels of turnout in direct democratic votes showing that the expected closeness of the result exerts a positive effect on participation levels. [R]
67.2199 STRÖMBLAD, Per; MALMBERG, Bo —
This article presents a comprehensive analysis of the influence of the neighborhood-level presence of visible minorities on xenophobic party support. Drawing on previous research on support for xenophobic political parties in Europe, we explore variations in electoral preferences for the Sweden Democrats. We examine relationships between the presence of visible minorities at the neighborhood level, controlling for the level of unemployment and education both in terms of potentially additive and interactive effects. We find that increased exposure of visible minorities unambiguously leads to an increase in xenophobic voting if the district level of unemployment is high. Where unemployment is low the effect of increased exposure may instead lead to reduced xenophobic party support, due to complex interaction effects involving aggregate education level. [R, abr.]
67.2200 STUBAGER, Rune; SEEBERG, Henrik Bech —
Research has documented that issue-ownership is an important aspect of voter behavior. Therefore, issue-ownership is an important asset for parties and one that they might try to improve on in order to enhance their electoral chances. Using survey experiments on a representative sample of Danish voters, the paper investigates what messages a party can convey to voters in order to improve its issue-ownership — communicating its emphasis on the issue, its position on the issue, its links to the issue constituency, or its performance on the issue — across both valence and position issues. The results show the effectiveness of the latter two communication strategies thereby documenting that parties through their communication may affect voters’ perceptions of their issue-handling competencies. [R]
67.2201 STUCKI, Iris —
This article analyzes the reporting of evidence in Swiss direct-democratic campaigns in the health policy sector, assuming that an informed public helps democracy function successfully. A content-analysis of the media's news reporting shows that of 5030 media items retrieved, a reference to evidence is found in 6.8%. The voter receives evidence in the form of substantiating arguments, equally distributed among proponents and opponents. Experts have the highest chance of providing evidence, but appear most rarely. Integrating more evidence might provide voters with the diversity of arguments needed to make a truly informed decision. [R]
67.2202 SU Zhenhua, et al. —
The Chinese government has long enjoyed a higher level of popular trust in its central authority than in its local governments, which means that the Chinese public's trust in government is hierarchical. While existing research has highlighted hierarchical trust's role in bolstering the Chinese regime's rule, the formation mechanism for such trust has not been adequately explored empirically. In this paper, we use data from the China General Social Survey (2010) to explore the formation mechanism of hierarchical government trust and find that economic development, adherence to traditional values, and high frequency of Internet usage all contribute to the decrease of hierarchical government trust. [R, abr.]
67.2203 SWIGGER, Nathaniel —
Can ostensibly nonpolitical television programming affect policy opinions? I use a laboratory experiment to test whether the gender norms portrayed on two primetime sitcoms can alter political attitudes on gender issues, specifically access to abortion, and contraception. Though the shows in the experiment did not explicitly discuss any policy, I find that sitcoms can influence policy opinions, particularly when the show conveys a “boys will be boys” mentality toward sexual behavior. This finding has important implications for public opinion scholars because it suggests that there may not be such a thing as apolitical programming, and pop culture may have a profound, overlooked effect on public opinion. [R]
67.2204 TANAKA, Seiki —
How public opinion on territorial disputes varies within states and what explains the variation are often overlooked. This paper argues that citizens who prioritize economic considerations are more likely to support compromises over such disputes, while those who prioritize a country's reputation tend to reject any compromise. Further, such variation in individual preferences can be explained by proximity to disputed territories. Counterintuitively, residents closer to disputes are more likely to support a compromise than those who live farther away, because they are more affected by economic considerations. Those far from the disputed territory can focus on political aspects, leading to a more hawkish stance. By using an experimental approach within Japan, this paper examines the validity of the spatial argument, and tests the relative salience of economic and political aspects of territorial disputes. [R, abr.]
67.2205 TEEHANKEE, Julio C.; THOMPSON, Mark R. —
With a folksy style and tough-guy image, Philippine presidential candidate R. Duterte promised to restore peace and order by any means necessary. Following his surprise victory in the May 2016 elections, Duterte has kept his word, launching the promised anti-drug campaign that saw nearly 1,800 extrajudicial killings within Duterte's first seven weeks in office. Thirty years after the “people power” revolution against the Marcos dictatorship, Duterte's victory represents a rupture in the liberal-democratic regime, and suggests that many Filipinos are willing to reject aspects of democracy they consider inconvenient or ineffective in exchange for Marcos-era “discipline” and stability. [R] [Part of a two articles on “The vote in the Philippines”. See also Abstr. 67.2213]
67.2206 TEPE-BELFRAGE, Daniela; WALLIN, Sara —
This introduction to the Special Issue presents research on austerity in British Politics. The work we showcase employs broadly understood gender analysis from different theoretical and disciplinary perspectives to broaden and deepen our understanding of austerity in the UK. In doing so, it brings to the forefront the meaning of austerity that cannot be deduced from national statistics and mainstream economic accounts: the costs of austerity for British households in their everyday and intergenerational social reproduction. Building upon innovative theoretical work and current empirical research, the contributors interrogate the conflicted rationalities of austerity as a moral and disciplinary form of governance that, ultimately, imposes suffering and inequality especially on the poor. [R] [Introduction to a thematic issue on “Inequality and insecurity in the UK”, edited by the authors and Steven KETTELL and Peter KERR. See also Abstr. 67.1338, 1940, 1995, 2025, 2107, 2124]
67.2207 TERRY, William C. —
This article examines the impact of electoral politics on state welfare policy in the post-civil-rights era South. In contrast to an emerging consensus concluding that southern African-Americans materially benefited from rejoining the electorate, this study suggests that higher black registration rates actually reduced states’ poverty relief efforts. In the years immediately following the Voting Rights Act (VRA), when Democrats controlled state government, the significant negative relationship between the size of the black electorate and state welfare generosity was moderated to some extent by high levels of partisan competition. In such cases, Democrats ostensibly chose a “core” targeting strategy of pursuing lower-income votes and had the institutional wherewithal to purchase these votes with policy concessions. [R, abr.]
67.2208 THESEN, Gunnar —
This article examines whether support parties are unfettered by the liabilities of policy responsibility. Incumbents struggle with the cost of ruling in elections and in day-to-day party and issue competition. Support parties, lacking the formal responsibility of office, could arguably escape the negative consequences of policy influence. Two studies illustrate this mechanism. (1) I find that Scandinavian support parties that exercise policy influence through participation in budget coalitions avoid electoral losses. However, support parties are unable to increase their vote share. (2) By looking more closely at one support party and analyzing its agenda-setting behavior in response to media attention, I find that support parties, unlike incumbents and like opposition parties, are able to politicize “winning issues” from the news. [R, abr.]
67.2209 THIÉBAULT, Jean-Louis —
This analysis is about the variations in presidential leadership of the seven French presidents under the Fifth Republic. The analysis of the political conditions of the method of government locates the type and the nature of the presidential leadership of the seven French presidents. Presidential leadership starts with the way leaders win office. They are elected by direct universal suffrage, and therefore have a strong legitimacy. To the extent that presidential leadership is conceived as a special activity in terms of a president's ability to identify goals, to mobilize support and to bring about substantive change, these skills enable a president to fulfill a successful leadership role. Applying the concept of leadership through the three factors of skills, relations and reputations helps to understand the performance of French presidents. [R, abr.]
67.2210 THOMSON, Jennifer —
Northern Ireland is the only region of the UK in which the Abortion Act of 1967 does not apply. Since the Abortion Act, little action has been taken from national government to address this discrepancy in the province. Furthermore, as the constitutional makeup of the UK has evolved in the wake of devolution, Northern Irish exceptionalism with regard to abortion has only increased. Working within a feminist institutionalist framework, this article asks why this remains the case and considers Northern Ireland's limited place in national political discussion at Westminster since devolution. As such, it draws on and contributes to the developing literature on gender, devolution and multi-level governance. It argues that abortion in Northern Ireland has largely been understood at Westminster as a regional, devolved issue rather than an issue of women's rights. [R, abr.]
67.2211 THORNTON, Patricia M. —
The May 16 Notification, which set the agenda for the Cultural Revolution, named the movement's key targets. The ensuing uprising of students and workers, many of whom claimed to be the loyal “representatives” of revolutionary and radical forces at the grassroots of society, exposed the fulminating crisis of political representation under CCP rule. This article considers the Cultural Revolution as a manifestation of a continuing crisis of representation within revolutionary socialism, as demonstrated by the tepid popular response to Jiang Zemin's “three represents” and widespread contemporary concerns about the Party's “representativeness” (daibiaoxing) in the wake of market reform. Although the Cultural Revolution enabled both public debate of and political experimentation with new forms of representative politics, the movement failed to resolve the crisis. [R, abr.] [Part of a thematic issue on “Red shadows: memories and legacies of the Chinese Cultural Revolution”, introduced by Chris BERRY, Patricia M. THORNTON, SUN Peidong, pp. 604–612. See also Abstr. 67.2227]
67.2212 THRASHER, Michael, et al. —
Electoral bias results in an asymmetrical seat distribution between parties with similar vote-shares. Over recent British general elections Labour held an advantage because it efficiently converted votes into seats. Following the 2015 election result this advantage has reduced considerably, principally because Labour's vote distribution saw it accumulate more ineffective votes. By contrast, the vote distribution of the Conservative party is now superior to that of Labour because it acquired fewer wasted votes although Labour retains a modest advantage overall because it benefits from inequalities in electorate size and differences in voter turnout. Features of the 2015 election, however, raise general methodological challenges for decomposing electoral bias. The analysis, therefore, considers the effect of substituting the Liberal Democrats as the third party with the UK Independence Party. [R, abr.]
67.2213 TIMBERMAN, David G. —
In electing R. Duterte to office in the May 2016 presidential elections, Filipinos voted for a departure from the “straight” path associated with term-limited president B. Aquino III. Pledging to institute constitutional reforms, crack down on drug use and crime, and tackle enduring problems of poverty and inequality, Duterte responded to Filipino voters’ most immediate and incisive concerns. But Duterte's disdain for human rights and democratic checks and balances, combined with his promises to make changes quickly, may lead him and others in his administration to circumvent or weaken democratic institutions and processes. Whether that change will revitalize or damage Philippine democracy will depend on the level of support Duterte receives from the Filipino public as well as the response of elite groups and key institutions. [R] [See Abstr. 67 2205]
67.2214 TSYGANKOV, Andrei P. —
This article combines quantitative and textual analysis of editorials in leading American newspapers devoted to Russia's internal politics from 2008 to 2014. Despite rapprochement under President D. Medvedev, the media image of Russia has been overwhelmingly negative since 2008. Negative media editorial opinions of Russia reflect fears of autocratic political systems that are represented as a dangerous mirror image of the American system. To maintain this binary, aspects of Russian politics that did not fit into the neo-Soviet autocracy narrative were ignored. The article identifies key frames used by leading American media outlets to construct a narrative about contemporary Russia as a neo-Soviet autocracy. It demonstrates that this narrative is instrumental in confirming domestic perceptions of American national identity that emphasize its association with freedom at home and leadership of the “free world” abroad. [R, abr.]
67.2215 TZELGOV, Eitan —
This article examines the behavior of Greek political parties before, as well as during, the recent austerity period. Drawing on coalition oversight and blame avoidance literature, it argues that the unpopularity of austerity governments leads to extreme levels of dissent within the coalition. I operationalize this “intra-coalition opposition” behavior using parliamentary questions, a legislative institution that has not been studied in the context of coalition politics. The analysis demonstrates that junior members in unpopular austerity governments increase their use of parliamentary questions to a degree that matches or even exceeds the formal opposition. However, intra-coalition dissent is conditional on the type of unpopular government policies, and on the ideology of coalition members. [R, abr.]
67.2216 ULRICH, Nicole; BYRNE, Sian —
During the 1970s and early 1980s, sections of the trade union movement questioned the African National Congress (ANC) and South African Communist Party's (SACP's) narrow vision of freedom, which was based on the capture of the colonial state by a nationalist elite. Workers were regarded as the locus of transformative power in society, and their organizations were viewed as prefiguring a radically democratic future. This article examines the very different kind of radical anti-colonial engagement offered by “workers’ control” in the 1970s and “workerism” in the early 1980s that was developed by the Trade Union Advisory Coordinating Council (TUACC) and the Federation of South African Trade Unions (FOSATU), respectively. It outlines the key characteristics and limits of these traditions that facilitated their decline in the postapartheid context. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 67.2037]
67.2217 UMPIERREZ DE REGUERO, Sebastián —
With the return of democracy in 1979, Ecuador faces new political challenges, including achieving political and representation parity. Hence this work formulates an evolution of female representation in Ecuador's unicameral legislature by using a methodological quantitative approach and data from official sources (Library of the National Assembly). Early results indicate that factors such as the type of list, quotas and type of electoral system affect female representation. Similarly Chi-Square tests reject the null hypothesis and provide evidence of a relationship between gender and geographical distribution, type of parliamentary seats and ideological axis (left-right). [R]
67.2218 VALDEZ ZEPEDA, Andrés —
The vast majority of modern election campaigns are conducted under turbulent context, characterized by economic crisis, a high level of criminality and discredited politicians and party institutions. In the article, the presidential elections that have taken place in recent years in several countries and discusses how political parties and their candidates have articulated strategies to try to win elections. We conclude that crises generate certain levels of discontent among the electorate, especially among those who are affected by them. [R, abr.]
67.2219 VALDINI, Melody E.; SHORTELL, Christopher —
The presence of women justices in the highest constitutional courts varies significantly across countries, yet there is little existing research that engages this substantial cross-national variation. Using an original data set of women's representation in the constitutional courts in fifty democracies combined with qualitative case studies, we assess the effect of the selection mechanism on this variation and find that the existence of a “sheltered” versus “exposed” selection mechanism is a critical determinant of women's presence. That is, when the selectors are sheltered from electoral accountability, they are less likely to select women as judges because they do not benefit from credit claiming. When the selectors are exposed and can claim credit, however, the unique traits and visibility of the highest court generate an incentive to appoint women. [R]
67.2220 VALENZUELA, Ali A.; MICHELSON, Melissa R. —
The rise of micro-targeting in American elections raises new questions about the effects of identity-based mobilization strategies. We bring together theories of expressive voting with literature on racial and ethnic identification to argue that prior studies have missed a crucial moderating variable — identity strength — that varies across both individuals and communities. Identity appeals can have powerful effects on turnout, but only when they target politicized identities to which individuals hold strong prior attachments. We show that the effects of both ethnic and national identity appeals among Latinos in California and Texas are conditional on the strength of those identities in different communities and among different Latino subgroups. [R, abr.]
67.2221 VAN DER NOLL, Jolanda; DEKKER, Henk —
What are the attitudes towards the EU, the US, Russia and Japan among Chinese urban citizens, and how can we explain these attitudes? These are the intriguing questions that we [address]. The image, social identity, trust, and political socialization theories proposed the various explanatory variables. We assessed their explanatory powers by analyzing survey data from more than 2000 Chinese urban citizens. Most empirical evidence is found for the image theory: positive perceptions of the people (trustworthy and peaceful) and the bilateral relationship (friendly) clearly contribute to positive attitudes. [R]
67.2222 VICENTINI, Giulia —
During the last years, mainly because of the dramatic economic crisis that affected the Eurozone, the process of European integration has been seriously questioned from a significant part of the public opinion and different political forces, which are becoming more and more relevant within their own countries. [In Italy], several studies demonstrated a growing popular distrust toward EU institutions, but also at the elite level the “euro-enthusiasts” are continuously decreasing. The paper analyzes the attitudes towards the EU of current Italian MPs by means of the data collected [around] the European elections of May 2014 on behalf of the ENEC (European National Elites and the Crisis) comparative project: an elite survey based on a representative sample of 80 deputies sorted by gender, years in parliament, and parliamentary party group. [R, abr.]
67.2223 WALLACE, Helen —
Brexit means Brexit, according to Th. May, the UK's new Prime Minister. Yet, what does this really mean? How did the UK find itself choosing to go down the chaotic road leading to its leaving the EU? What were the circumstances in which the referendum was organized? A detailed analysis of the referendum held on 23 June 2016 and the reasons that led to it, helps identify some of the problems that now await both the UK and the EU as they have to address the consequences of the UK's vote to leave the EU. [R]
67.2224 WANG Ching-Hsing —
This study examines whether such attitudinal factors as party identification, feeling thermometers toward the candidates, policy preferences and executive approval mediate the effects of personality traits on vote-choice in the US. Using data from ANES 2012, this study finds no direct relationship between personality traits and vote-choice. The results reveal that through previously mentioned attitudinal factors, higher levels of extraversion, conscientiousness and emotional stability indirectly decrease the probability of voting for President B. Obama, whereas a higher level of openness to experience indirectly increases the probability of voting for Obama. Nevertheless, agreeableness exerts only an indirect, positive influence on vote-choice via executive approval. [R, abr.]
67.2225 WANI, Shakoor Ahmad —
In recent years the Baloch national movement has undergone a sea change. The dismantling of rudimentary representative institutions by the military regime of Pakistan's president, General P. Musharraf, set off a process of radicalization of Baloch nationalism. The excessive reliance on a coercive state apparatus has not only alienated the moderate nationalists but also increased the popularity of a separatist creed. This article argues that aggressive resource exploitation and state repression is pushing Balochs toward secession. [R]
67.2226 WATSON, Micah —
This article presents several normative and conceptual challenges to the prospects of the creation of a Christian political party in American politics. Given that political parties differ from interest groups insofar as they seek to govern, and as governing includes the exercise of coercive force, constructing a Christian political party that is recognizably and uniquely Christian and capable of successfully wielding political power will be an exceedingly difficult task. [R] [See Abstr. 67.1917]
67.2227 WEIGELIN-SCHWIEDRZIK, Susanne; JINKE Cui —
Song Binbin, daughter of prominent CCP politician Song Renqiong, has long been accused of having played a role in the death of Bian Zhongyun at the Girls’ Middle School in Beijing Normal University on 5 August 1966. In January 2014, she publicly apologized. However, rebel participants of the Cultural Revolution used the opportunity to criticize the sons and daughters of high-ranking cadres and to try to overturn the 1981 official evaluation of the Cultural Revolution by promoting a positive view of that period in Chinese history. This paper analyzes Song Binbin's apology from a political science cum memory studies perspective. It argues that the memory of the Cultural Revolution remains a battlefield of divergent memory groups and multiple narratives. [R] [See Abstr. 67.2211]
67.2228 WEILER, Florian —
Lobby groups are confronted in a political competition whose intensity differs from one field to another. This article analyzes the manner and extent to which these differences affect the lobby behavior of interest groups on the basis of a survey conducted among German and Swiss organizations. According to the collected data, a rise of the intensity of the competition pressure affects both direct lobbying to politicians (insider lobbying) and indirect influence through the media and the general public (outsider lobbying), although the effect is broader vis-à-vis insider lobbying. The survey also shows that, in a context of elevated competition, organizations aim direct access to decision-makers. [R, transl.]
67.2229 WEISS, Meredith L.; LOKE Hoe-Yeong; CHOA, Luenne Angela —
The People's Action Party's unexpectedly strong win in Singapore's September 2015 general election illuminates the dynamics of opposition under electoral authoritarianism. The conduct and outcome of the election raise questions not just of why the much-hyped opposition efforts fizzled, but also of the implications for Singapore politics, moving forward. [R]
67.2230 WEITZ-SHAPIRO, Rebecca; WINTERS, Matthew S. —
When are citizens most likely to hold politicians to account for wrongdoing? In a crowded information environment, political accountability requires that credible information about politician behavior is available and that citizens are able to identify credible information as such. Focusing on this second requirement, we argue that the ability to discern more credible from less credible information is increasing in citizens’ cognitive and political sophistication. Using data from an original survey experiment in Brazil, we show that all citizens react negatively to corruption allegations but that more politically sophisticated respondents are the most likely to discern between sources of information that differ in their credibility. A novel mechanism may link increasing education with control of political corruption: educated citizens are better able to discern, and therefore act on, credible corruption accusations. [R, abr.]
67.2231 WHITE, Te Hau —
This article [examines] the form and place of te ao Maori in the New Zealand Parliament. It analyzes the maiden speeches of 12 Maori MPs from across the political spectrum and from different Parliaments since the adoption of Mixed Member Proportional Electoral System in 1996, and investigates their commitment to te ao Maori based on deductive and inductive discourse-analysis. It seeks the presence of Maori identity indicators, as well as themes unique to the Maori political context. The research considers how Maori MPs “represent” Maori in the debating chamber in Parliament. This research also asks whether substantive representation of te ao Maori varies across the electorate types, Maori, general and list seats. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 67.1507]
67.2232 WILF, Meredith —
Financial regulatory networks are a pervasive new type of global governance heralded by some as a flexible answer to globalization dilemmas and dismissed by others as ineffective because of weak enforcement mechanisms. Whether regulatory network agreements provide global public goods or private goods for certain states’ firms is a second debated issue. This article adjudicates among competing perspectives by examining whether Basel III, an international agreement about bank capital minimums negotiated by the bank regulatory network in 2009 and 2010, was viewed as credible and affecting regulated US firms. I use stock returns to measure investors’ perceptions, and an event study methodology to test whether regulated banks’ observed stock returns significantly differ from expected stock returns on days when new information about Basel III becomes available. [R, abr.]
67.2233 WILKINS-LAFLAMME, Sarah —
Past studies have shown that religion plays an important role in voting behavior in Canada. Yet, little is known about the changes this religious vote has undergone over the past few decades. Using Canadian Election Studies data, we analyze the evolving impact of religious affiliation and level of religiosity on vote choice in federal elections between 1965 and 2011. We find that, as the marginal impact of Catholic and mainline Protestant traditions has declined, the effect of level of religiosity has gained in importance. In 2011, religious citizens were overall more likely to vote Conservative and secular individuals were more likely to vote NDP both in Quebec and in the rest of Canada. Some distinct voting patterns also remain for non-mainline Protestant groups in the ROC and religious nuns in Quebec. [R]
67.2234 WILSON, David C.; KING-MEADOWS, Tyson —
Controversies over voting outcomes, and subsequent laws to seemingly curb irregularities, have led to increased scrutiny over the process of voting day activities. While studies find evidence that majorities perceive rampant fraud, the explanations for these opinions have mainly pointed to political predispositions, largely ignoring the influence of racial attitudes. We propose that contemporary opinions on electoral malfeasance are shaped by the context of a popularly elected African-American president, B. Obama, and subsequent racial resentments. Analyses of data from the 2010 Cooperative Congressional Election Study reveals that racial resentment significantly predicts higher perceiver electoral malfeasance, even after controlling for political predispositions. [R, abr.]
67.2235 WORTHY, Ben —
When Th. May became Prime Minister in July 2016, she joined a list of eleven previous UK takeover leaders in the past 100 years. While the popular image is of Prime Ministers arriving in power after a general election victory, more than half of the Prime Ministers who governed since 1916 have acceded as “takeover leaders” through an internal party process. This article analyzes how such takeover leaders perform, concluding that May is likely to face greater obstacles and enjoy fewer advantages than if she had been popularly elected. Takeover leaders have less time in power and less chance of winning subsequent elections, and are generally rated as worse-performing. [R]
67.2236 WU Wen-Chin; CHANG Yu-Tzung; PAN Hsin-Hsin —
Many surveys show that China's political regime, under the Chinese Communist Party's authoritarian rules, enjoys a high level of public support. However, it is still uncertain whether China's emerging middle class will become the “agent of democratization” as suggested by modernization theory. Using the data of Asian Barometer Survey conducted in China in 2011, this article demonstrates that the relationship between class identity and preference for liberal democracy in China may be inverted U-shaped. The Chinese middle class shows a higher preference to features of liberal democratic regimes than its counterparts of the lower- and upper-class. Members of the Chinese middle class also tend to regard democracy as the best form of government. [R, abr.]
67.2237 WUHS, Steven T. —
Maps of electoral results across Germany show remarkable stability over the postwar period. While historical social cleavages are the foundation of western Germany's stable electoral geography, in the five eastern states, crucial events in 1989 and 1990, largely independent of social structural factors, established particular trajectories of party formation that shaped parties’ electoral success. Drawing on interviews with political elites and archival documents, I use a critical-juncture analysis approach to explain the temporally and spatially contingent nature of party formation processes in eastern Germany after 1989. This analysis shifts debates about party formation from the questions of when and why, to how and where parties form, while also explaining the origin and persistence of territorialized party systems. [R]
67.2238 YILMAZ, Onurcan, et al. —
Political ideology is often characterized along a liberal-conservative continuum in the US and the left-right continuum in Europe. However, no study has examined what this characterization means to young Turkish voters or whether it predicts their approach to morality. In Study 1, we investigated in two separate samples the relation between young Turkish participants’ responses to the one-item left-to-right political orientation question and their self-reported political ideologies (conservative, socialist, etc.). In Study 2, we investigated the relation of moral dimensions as defined by Moral Foundations Theory to political party affiliation and political ideology. Taken together, the findings reveal the distinctive nature of young Turkish people's political orientations while supporting the predictive power of the one-item political orientation question. [R, abr.]
67.2239 ZHU Boliang —
How does multinational corporation (MNC) activity affect corruption in developing countries? The existing literature tends to suggest that economic integration helps reduce corruption, as it increases market competition and efficiency and promotes the diffusion of good governance. This article argues that such a generalization oversimplifies the consequences of MNC activity in host countries. The entry and presence of MNCs may contribute to rent creation in developing countries, thereby leading to a high level of corruption. To test this argument, I conduct a case study on China and draw from original data of filed corruption cases to construct measures of corruption. I find that provinces with more MNC activity are strongly associated with more corruption. [R, abr.]
67.2240 ZIEGLER, Charles E. —
Russia's government has become increasingly nationalistic, defensive, and vocal in rejecting elements of the Western liberal order. The Kremlin has attempted to mobilize and channel Russian nationalism into an antiliberal discourse to achieve selected foreign and domestic policy goals, but contending nationalisms complicate the government's ability to control and direct these potent forces. This article draws on official documents, presidential speeches, and recent Russian political writings to assess how Russia's governing elite has adopted and utilized a specific Eurasianist form of Russian nationalism to promote an aggressive foreign policy while marginalizing domestic opposition. Protecting Russian compatriots abroad, restoring historic lost territories, and confronting the Western world strengthen V. Putin's popularity among the Russian people and legitimize his hold on power, while alienating non-Russian minorities and isolating Russia internationally. [R]
67.2241 ZÙQUETE, José Pedro —
Populism is on the agenda. This article gives an overview of the conceptual discussions about the phenomenon as well as its consequences to democratic theory and practice. The article concludes with a discussion of the contemporary radical right, its populist nature, and the impact of the theme of anti-immigration on its rise in Europe. [R] [First of a series of articles on “Populism and migration”, edited and introduced by Filipa RAIMUNDO and Ana SANTOS PINTO. See also Abstr. 67.1903, 1946, 2093, 2101, 2554]
67.2242
Articles on the presidential elections by Norman BIRNBAUM; Richard V. REEVES; Sarah KENDZIOR; Peter HAKIM; Francisco MORENO FERNÁNDEZ.