Abstract
73.6155 AARSLEW, Laurits F. —
Partisans rarely punish their party at the polls for violating democratic norms or cheating in elections. However, we know little about the underlying reasons. I examine why partisans rarely sanction in-party malpractice. Using pre-registered survey experiments in Denmark and Mexico, I examine the different steps in how partisans adjust their views in response to revelations of electoral malpractice and distinguish between two substantively different explanations. Do pervasive biases prevent partisans from viewing in-party malpractice as illegitimate? Or, do partisans accurately update their views when learning about malpractice but refrain from voting against their party? The analysis demonstrates that partisans do not apply double standards when evaluating malpractice. However, although partisans punish in-party malpractice, they hold opposing parties in such low esteem that even revelations of malpractice do not change their minds. [R, abr.]
73.6156 ABDOUBAETOVA, Aigoul —
In recent years, we observe the growth of illiberal discourses in Kyrgyzstan. Illiberal public activists are particularly active in engaging with the Kyrgyz-speaking population and spreading conservative values. This paper studies the narratives of illiberal public activists and reveals three main trends in their speeches: promoting strong anti-western sentiments; combining Kyrgyz traditional values and ethnic identity with the religious doctrines for a bigger impact; and actively using digital and social media and focusing on youth and informal education as their main strategies in promoting illiberal thoughts. This paper argues that promotion of conservative ideas by the Kyrgyz-speaking illiberal public activists is a home-grown process, not directly influenced by Russian illiberal propaganda. It is a result of evolving re-traditionalisation, growth of religious values and anti-westernism. [R] [See Abstr. 73.6396]
73.6157 ACKERMANN, Kathrin, et al.—
Empirical insights on the attitudinal correlates of direct democracy are inconclusive. On the one hand, direct democracy bears a conceptual resemblance with populist ideas. On the other hand, participatory democrats advocate the use of direct democracy precisely on grounds that it promises to educate citizens. This paper complements tests of arguments positing an educative potential of direct democracy with tests of its populist potential. We make use of original survey data collected in the German Bundesländer, which present a relatively underappreciated, yet interesting and representative case for studying direct democracy. Multilevel models indicate that political attitudes are neither more populist nor more supportive of the political system among citizens in direct democratic contexts. [R, abr.]
73.6158 ADIGUZEL, Fatih Serkant ; CANSUNAR, Asli ; COREKCIOGLU, Gozde —
Do voters reward incumbents for the provision of public services? We study the political economy of catchment areas of public services to answer this question. Rather than examining the binary relationship between health care provision and electoral returns within politically defined borders, we study whether increases in geographic accessibility of health care providers and decreases in congestion in services attract votes for the incumbent. Leveraging a health care reform in Turkey, which substantially impacted the geospatial distribution of public health clinics in Istanbul, we find that decreases in walking time and improvements in congestion levels in the closest clinic from a polling station significantly increase vote share of the AKP, the incumbent party, at that polling station. We also show that poorer communities were more responsive to improvements in spatial accessibility to the local clinics. [R]
73.6159 AGÜERO-MERINO, Estefanía —
This article analyzes the sentiment of messages posted on the social network Twitter during the electoral debates in for the regional elections held in Galicia and the Basque Country in 2020. The aim is to test whether a dominant negative sentiment exists in the messages and whether this varies when the candidate for re-election intervenes — election competition —, whether it differs when parties from the ideological extremes intervene — echo chambers —, and whether the same reaction occurs when the issue at stake affects both electorates equally. It is shown that in the Basque Country it is more important who intervenes — more electoral competition —, while in Galicia the issues are the ones that motivate Twitter conversations. [R]
73.6160 AIZENBERG, Ellis —
This paper argues that a high degree of conflict and a low degree of salience on a policy issue drives corporations to lobby alone rather than via a business association. Previous research has addressed drivers at organizational, sector and structural level. This paper adds an issue perspective. These arguments are important as democracies thrive when business employs its power in a responsible manner. When corporations lobby alone, it can be a challenge to do so as they tend to overlook long-term interests of the broader business community and society. The arguments are tested for the first time in a corporatist context through an original survey experiment among corporate lobbyists in Germany and the Netherlands. [R, abr.]
73.6161 Al-MARASHI, Ibrahim —
The Popular Mobilisation Units’ (PMU) rise in Iraq resulted from a de facto, post-2003 hybridization of security governance, opposed to an emergency measure to combat Islamic State after 2014. Rather than a cohesive sectarian movement, the PMU moniker granted a government veneer to an array of pre-existing or new militias, representing a decentralized Shi’a Arab mobilisation prior to 2014, symptomatic of Iraq’s divisive patronage politics. Perceived by the US and the Arab world as ‘pro-Iranian Shi’a militias’, as a spoiler to Iraq’s sovereignty, and an Iranian means of securing its control over Baghdad, while some militias began as NSAAs, the PMU have evolved into quasi-state actors by becoming part of the state, but not under its complete control. [R, abr.]
73.6163 ALBERTUS, Rene W. ; MAKOZA, Frank —
Over the last decade, there has been rapid growth in instant messaging platforms, e.g. WhatsApp, Twitter and Instagram. Academic research on the use of instant messaging platforms is growing, but few studies have looked at the influence instant messaging could have on politics and the impact on world peace. Drawing on the Theory of Communication Action, this paper interrogated the discourses of using Twitter in the context of the USA. Media reports and tweets were analysed using validity claims to check communication distortions or misinformation that could impair the decision-making of policymakers and the public. The American President used Twitter to communicate potentially dangerous messages to American society. It was interesting to note that Twitter decided to fact-check tweets in response to the call from the community at large to have the account shut down. [R]
73.6164 ALSOOS, Imad —
This article attempts to define a comprehensive organizational approach to explain the resilience of Muslim Brotherhood movements such as Hamas. Scholarship highlights the importance of ideological and religious identity, personalistic loyalty, informal interaction, and the provision of social services for the popularity of these movements. This article examines, in turn, how these mobilizing elements are constructed and translated into organizational practices within three organizing bodies of action: first, the Dacwa Apparatus, which crystallizes a professional centralized hierarchy that runs all activities. Second, the Families of the Dacwa, which educate and train activists internally. Third, the Family of the Mosque which represents the instance through which these qualified activists externally mobilize the public in their local communities. [R, abr.]
73.6165 AMMASSARI, Sofia —
Stigmatisation has been recognised as a major factor influencing the fortunes of populist radical right (PRR) parties. While scholars have examined it by taking parties as units of analysis, this study focuses on the individual level by asking Which PRR party members are more likely to feel stigmatised? After offering a novel theoretical explanation for feelings of stigmatisation based on the personal networks in which PRR grassroots members are embedded, it then investigates stigma using an original membership survey of about 7,000 members of the Sweden Democrats (SD) and interviews with 30 of them. The survey results show that the higher the educational qualification PRR grassroots members have achieved, the more likely they will feel stigmatised. In addition, those who have never had any relatives and/or friends in the SD, and those who are employed in the public sector, are more likely to consider membership discrediting. [R, abr.]
73.6166 ANDREWS, Rhys —
It is often asserted that the representation of women in leadership positions within public service organisations is likely to result in improved outcomes for other women within those organisations. However, there has been little systematic research devoted to understanding whether this argument holds for the nonprofit organisations that now provide many public services. To cast light on this important issue, this article presents an analysis of the representation of women in leadership roles and the gender pay gap in Welsh housing associations — registered societies responsible for providing more than half of the social housing within Wales. The findings show that nonprofit service providers led by women in the most senior organisational positions may be more likely to have a lower gender pay gap, confirming arguments about the importance of actively representing female interests. [R, abr.]
73.6167 ANGENENDT, Michael —
Despite the rising electoral success of independent local parties in many European countries, empirical evidence about their members is still rare. Who are these members? Which incentives motivate them to join, and how is intra-party participation structured? Based on a cross-sectional postal survey in Germany, the results show that members of independent local parties and national parties have mostly the same socioeconomic background and thus differ from the average general population. Independent local party members join their organisations mainly to promote an apolitical style of local decision-making and facilitate local democracy. Within independent local parties, different types of participation are present; while some members are fully engaged, others are mainly involved as elected representatives in public office or interested in social exchange. [R, abr.]
73.6168 ARES, Macarena ; VAN DITMARS, Mathilde M. —
This article investigates how class of origin and intergenerational social mobility impact left-wing party support among new and old core left-wing electorates in the context of post-industrial electoral realignment and occupational transformation. We investigate the remaining legacy of political socialization in class of origin across generations of voters in the UK, Germany and Switzerland. We demonstrate that part of the contemporary middle-class left-wing support is a legacy of socialization under industrial class-party alignments, as many individuals from working-class backgrounds — traditional left-wing constituencies — have a different (postindustrial) class location than their parents. These enduring effects of production worker roots are weaker among younger generations and in more realigned contexts. Our findings imply that exclusively considering respondents’ destination class underestimates the relevance of political socialization in class of origin, thereby overestimating electoral realignment. However, these past industrial alignments are currently unparalleled, as newer left-wing constituencies do not (yet) demonstrate similar legacies. [R]
73.6169 ARIÑO LANGARITA, Irune ; MARTÍN FUENTES, Natalia ; FERNÁNDEZ LUIÑA, Eduardo —
This article makes a first approximation to the electoral participation of liberals in Spain. Using the CIS monthly barometers and covering the period of a decade from 2010 to 2020, we analyze whether liberal ideology has influenced electoral participation. The logistic regression analyses employed include ideology in addition to other socioeconomic, attitudinal and conjunctural aspects as control variables. The results show that liberal voters have a lower electoral participation that is directly attributed to their ideological affiliation. For the elections studied, the differential behavior associated with liberal ideology is robustly maintained even after the selfplacement on the left-right axis — namely, the metric traditionally used to approximate the effect of ideology — is included in the model. This greater abstentionism associated with liberal ideology does not seem to be entirely explained by the greater distrust in political institutions that these voters tend to show. [R]
73.6170 ARTIME, Michael Robert ; HERSHEY, Megan —
How much can a celebrity’s involvement with a charity campaign change minds and shape political opinion? We explore this issue in the context of an appeal by Benedict Cumberbatch regarding the Syrian refugee crisis. We find that while the emotional, vivid images of the video did elicit a statistically significant increase in students’ positive feelings toward Syrian refugees and efforts to help them, surprisingly, Cumberbatch’s plea had no effect at all on these political views. Post-experiment focus groups allowed us to further probe these findings, and we suggest that viewer skepticism reduces celebrity influence, but that celebrity may be more effective as a “hook” in grabbing viewers’ attention, than in actually swaying their views. We also find that participation in a charity plea has the potential to benefit celebrities themselves by dramatically improving viewers’ perceptions of them. [R]
73.6171 ARYSTANBEK, Aizada —
This study investigates how standards of hegemonic femininity in Kazakhstan are utilised by the public in online spaces to police Kazakh women’s bodies, glorify national culture, and normalise violence against women who do not conform to these standards. Drawing upon discourse analysis as the primary method for examining available comments on Facebook and Instagram, this paper is one of the first studies of modern Kazakh nationalism from a critical gendered perspective that situates discourses about Kazakh women in the context of sexual violence and demonstrates the “weaponisation” of women’s bodies and the normalisation of violence against them in online spaces. [R] [See Abstr. 73.6396]
73.6172 AUER, Daniel ; RUEDIN, Didier —
Members of ethnic and racial minorities across North America and Europe continue to face discrimination, for instance, when applying for jobs or seeking housing. Such unequal treatment can occur because societies categorize people into groups along social, cultural, or ethnic and racial lines that seemingly rationalize differential treatment. Research suggests that it may take generations for such differences to decline, if they change at all. Here, we show that a single gesture by international soccer players at the World Cup 2018 — followed by an extensive public debate — led to a measurable and lasting decline in discrimination. Immediately after the galvanizing event, invitation rates to view apartments increased by 6 percentage points for the migrant group represented by the players, while responses to the native population did not change noticeably. [R, abr.]
73.6173 AYDEMIR, Nermin ; VERMEULEN, Floris —
What do national votes mean for dual citizens who have the right to vote here and there? Does political socialization in a liberal democratic system lead to a democratic remittance or do immigrant minorities align with authoritarian regimes challenging the West’s liberal democratic values? We analyse voting preferences by using a transnational lens that focuses on the convergence of two different political systems via immigrant-origin voters. We focus on the Turkish-Dutch population from conservative backgrounds in our aim to gain a thorough understanding of support towards Islamic parties here (in the Netherlands) and there (in Turkey). This is one of just a few studies that have investigated the complex and layered nature of political preferences in a transnational world. A qualitative approach is followed to acquire in-depth insights of the ideas and evaluations of our research group. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 73.6536]
73.6174 AYLOTT, Nicholas ; BOLIN, Niklas —
The Swedish parliamentary election of 11 September 2022 led to the removal of a Social Democratic government and the installation of a rightof-centre coalition. The change was made possible by the mainstream right’s abandonment of the previous cordon sanitaire around the radicalright Sweden Democrats (SD). The new government, consisting of the Moderates, the Christian Democrats and the Liberals, concluded a comprehensive agreement with SD. In this article, we sketch the background to the election; describe how the campaign unfolded; and interpret the results and outcome. [R]
73.6175 AYLOTT, Nicholas ; BOLIN, Niklas —
In this article, the aim is to enhance our understanding of who has power over leader selection in political parties. To this end, we apply an analytical framework in which the selection process is divided into three phases: gatekeeping, preparation and decision. The focus is on determining the extent to which each of these phases is influential for the outcome and thereby locating the distribution of intra-party power. Underpinning the analysis is the conviction that the comparison of leader selection is too limited if it relies solely on information about formal procedures, including the composition of the selectorate. We should also take the preselection phase of leader selection into account. Empirically, we examine a sample of recent selection processes in European parliamentary democracies. [R, abr.]
73.6176 AZZIMONTI, Marina ; FERNANDES, Marcos —
We study how the structure of social media networks and the presence of fake news affects the degree of misinformation and polarization in a society. For that, we analyze a dynamic model of opinion exchange in which individuals have imperfect information about the true state of the world and exhibit bounded rationality. Key to the analysis is the presence of internet bots: agents in the network that spread fake news (e.g., a constant flow of biased information). We characterize how agents’ opinions evolve over time and evaluate the determinants of long-run misinformation and polarization in the network. To that end, we construct a synthetic network calibrated to Twitter and simulate the information exchange process over a long horizon to quantify the bots’ ability to spread fake news. [R, abr.]
73.6177 BAEKGAARD, Martin ; HERD, Pamela ; MOYNIHAN, Donald P. —
Politicians engage in, and the media amplifies, social constructions of welfare recipients as undeserving. Such messaging seeks to influence mass public opinion, but what are the effects on the target population receiving welfare benefits? We test if deservingness messaging affects welfare recipients’ mental health. To do so, we exploit a quasi-experiment entailing a dramatic shift in deservingness messaging after a welfare recipient in Denmark became the subject of a national debate, utilizing detailed administrative data on the ensuing consumption of antidepressants by other welfare recipients. We find evidence that welfare recipients experienced worse mental health outcomes after being exposed to deservingness messaging, reflected in a 1.2-percentage-point increase in the use of antidepressants in the weeks following the airing of a critical interview. Deservingness messaging particularly affected more vulnerable groups who had a history of mental health problems. [R]
73.6178 BAKER, Regina S. —
Empirical studies link high racial inequality in US child poverty to the higher prevalence of single motherhood among certain racial groups. But a growing literature is demonstrating how the impact of single parenthood and family structure on children varies by racial group, including evidence that Black children experience smaller single motherhood “penalties” for some outcomes, like education. I use Luxembourg Income Study data for the United States from 1995 to 2018 to further investigations of ethno-racial variation in single motherhood penalties for child poverty. I provide a descriptive portrait of the levels and trends of children living in single-mother households and of the poverty penalties associated with children living in such households. I also show that, on average, Black children experience smaller penalties from single motherhood and Latino children experience larger penalties, both compared to White children. I conclude with discussion of potential reasons for this variation and future directions for research. [R] [First article of a thematic issue on "Single-parent families and public policy: evidence from high-income countries", edited and introduced by Janet C. GORNICK; Laurie C. MALDONADO and Amanda SHEELY. See also Abstr. 73.5934, 5941, 6438, 6499, 6858, 6876, 6883, 6919, 6923, 6924, 6980, 6998]
73.6179 BALLARD, Andrew O., et al.—
Affective polarization is pervasive in modern US politics, and can be intensified by strategic messaging from members of Congress. But there are gaps in our knowledge of the dynamics of polarizing appeals from elected representatives on social media. We explore the usage of polarizing rhetoric by members of Congress on Twitter using the 4.9 million tweets sent by members of Congress from 2009 to 2020, coded for the presence of polarizing rhetoric via a novel and highly accurate application of supervised machine learning methods. Fitting with our expectations, we find that more ideologically extreme members, those from safer districts, and those who are not in the president’s party are more likely to send polarizing tweets, and that polarizing tweets garner more engagement, increasing campaign funding for more polarizing members. [R]
73.6180 BANTEL, Ivo —
Concerns over affective polarization in Western democracies are growing. But which broader political distinctions are also affective demarcations? As inter-party cooperation is the rule in multi-party democracies, explaining affective polarization beyond partisan divisions is crucial. I argue that demarcations between political camps deepen affective polarization, and country-level factors influence the relevance of these affective divides. Based on survey data from 23 Western democracies (1996-2019), I demonstrate that affect is most polarized between Left and Right camps, and between the Radical Right and other camps. Further, these divides are dynamic and depend on different country-level outcomes. The Left/Right divide disappears when Left and Right parties govern together, while the Radical Right divide is fortified with Radical Right electoral success. These findings highlight that affective polarization’s group foundations extend beyond partisanship, and that affective polarization could even act as a defence mechanism against radical challengers. [R]
73.6181 BARTON, Richard —
Despite widespread speculation among pundits and politicians, statistical research finds little evidence that primaries are an important source of polarization in roll-call voting. This manuscript moves beyond roll-call votes by testing the effects of ideological primary challenges on partisanship in bill co-sponsorship in Congress. Moreover, while extant research generally focuses on the one-to-one effects of primary challenges on the incumbents who experience a challenge, I measure and test the effects of the mere threat of a primary challenge from the ideological extreme. I find that the increased threat of an ideological primary challenge accounts for about one-fourth of the rise in partisanship that occurred from the 1980s to the 2010s. These findings suggest the recent wave of ideological primary challenges is an important source of the escalation and intensification of polarization in recent Congresses. [R]
73.6182 BAUHR, Monika ; CHARRON, Nicholas —
What are the sources of public support for international aid in times of crises? This paper investigates the determinants of public support for the EU Covid-19 aid package (‘NextGenerationEU’, NGEU), the largest aid package in EU history. Using what is to the best of our knowledge the first EU-wide study of public opinion on the Covid-19 rescue package, we first establish that public support for within-EU redistribution is influenced by longstanding factors such as ideology and citizen identities, corroborating previous literature. Next, our vignette survey experiment shows that shortterm shifts in support for the rescue package are driven mostly by elite endorsement cues rather than information about the precise terms of aid or amount. We also find that the role of elite endorsement cues varies across different subsets of the population depending on their level of political sophistication, national level attachment and country context. Conversely, the effects of policy details about the aid package are more mixed. [R, abr.]
73.6183 BAUMGARDNER, Paul —
The American legal academy has witnessed intense ideological assaults in recent decades, as political conservatives have sought to recast legal education and produce a different kind of legal professional. However, the paths by which conservatives have approached the law schools differ. Some conservative campaigns to remake American legal education have highlighted their ideological agenda, whereas other campaigns have taken steps to keep their ideological goals hidden. This review illustrates both strategies but dedicates special attention to conservative forces that have pursued the latter strategy of ideological concealment. [R]
73.6184 BEAUREGARD, Katrine ; TAFLAGA, Marija —
While previous investigations have demonstrated that legislative gender quotas can disrupt traditional recruitment networks to level women’s and men’s political experience, little is known about the impact of party quotas. Using the Australian Candidate Survey, we find that gender party quotas can help close the experience gap between male and female candidates, but also between women. Before the adoption of party quotas, Coalition female candidates had more experience than Labor female candidates. This party gap disappears along with gender gaps amongst Labor candidates after the Labor Party adopted gender quotas. We find that party quotas made little impact on the experience levels of male Labor candidates or Coalition candidates’ of both sexes. We identify the professionalisation of politics and women-centric networks as factors shaping how quotas impact candidate-selection processes. [R]
73.6185 BEAUSOLEIL, Emily —
Claims of structural injustice are difficult to hear for those in positions of social advantage, where listening and response are needed most. Most activist strategies focus primarily on “disruptive” politics, which exerts pressure on decision-makers via a pragmatics of directness, expediency, and force. This paper argues that the particular “structures of feeling” that make listening difficult for advantaged groups call for a different kind of activism. It draws on interdisciplinary expertise from four sectors effective in fostering listening in the face of challenge — conflict mediation, therapy, education, and performance — to articulate three common features that enable transformation in these sites. Each of these more “poetic” qualities runs counter to the logic of most activist politics, and holds significant potential for civic interventions that seek to open closures and soften resistances to claims of structural injustice among socially advantaged groups. [R]
73.6186 BECH SEEBERG, Henrik —
Political science research [suggests that political parties influence policy only through government: The government controls the legislative process and has the parliamentary majority to legislate; the opposition is shut out. Yet the legislative process is merely the final part of a much longer policy process starting with an agenda-setting phase that decides the issues of political conflict in the first place. This study proposes an agenda-setting model of opposition policy influence which hypothesises sizable opposition policy influence through agenda-setting: A government is likely to adopt legislation covering the opposition’s position in order to silence opposition agenda-setting. The model is tested on the manual coding of 316 Acts of Parliament adopted by the government and 26,533 Prime Minister’s Questions from the Opposition across six issues in Britain (1979-2015). [R, abr.]
73.6187 BEDOCK, Camille ; PILET, Jean-Benoit —
This article investigates the determinants of public support for consultative and binding mini-publics at the local level in Belgium. The study demonstrates that while enraged (politically dissatisfied) and engaged (politically efficacious) citizens are more supportive of both forms of deliberative minipublics, citizens who are at once enraged and engaged are more likely to support more radical reforms of representative democracy, including binding uses of sortition that would lead to the replacement of elected politicians by citizens selected by lot. [R] [See Abstr. 73.6512]
73.6188 BEHNKE, Joachim —
With the new electoral law of 2013, the introduction of adjustment seats was enacted. The consequence was an extreme augmentation of the Bundestag in the following elections. Measures to reduce the augmentation made by the electoral law of 2020 proved to be inefficient. The law of 2020 also provided for the establishment of an electoral reform commission. In summer 2022 two proposals were presented out of the commission. The proposal of the so-called “Ampel”-coalition envisages to guarantee the regular size of the Bundestag by distributing only as many district mandates to the parties in the Bundesländern as they are entitled to by their share of second votes. The proposal of the union parties consists of a fundamental system change from the current proportional system to a segmented electoral system. [R, abr.]
73.6189 BELDER, F., et al.—
This article explores the narratives shaping the official discourse on COVID-19 in five countries governed by populists in different world regions. It is based on the assumption that a crisis like the pandemic constitutes a perfect occasion for populist mobilization, allowing populist leaders to construct reality in their favour by deliberately promoting own narratives about the pandemic, its origin and management. Analyzing 357 originallanguage speeches and statements by representatives of the populist governments of Brazil, Israel, India, Mexico and Turkey, the article shows that populists in power use crises to mobilize support in very different ways. Surprisingly, most populist governments neither resorted to anti-scientific claims or conspiratorial discourses attributing the crisis to obscure elites, nor blamed minorities not belonging to the ‘true people’. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 73.6822]
73.6190 BELLANI, Luna ; FABELLA, Vigile Marie ; SCERVINI, Francesco —
This paper models policy formation using a political contest with endogenous policy proposals containing two dimensions, e.g. access and quality of education. The two dimensions provide an opportunity to trade off one policy over another to make the lobbying opposition less aggressive. In a first stage, the government proposes a reform over the two policies, and in a second stage engages in a contest with an interest group over the enactment of the proposed reform. As a result, the government makes a compromise, under-proposing in the policy the interest group opposes and over-proposing in the policy the interest group desires. Effectively, there will be strategic bundling of desired policies with undesired ones in an attempt to increase enactment probability and overall utility. [R, abr.]
73.6191 BELLETTINI, Giorgio, et al.—
In many democracies, gender differences in voter turnout have narrowed or even reversed. Yet, it appears that women participate more in some circumstances and men in others. Here we study how life trajectories — specifically, marriage and having children — will impact male and female turnout differently, depending on household-level context. To this end, we leverage a unique administrative panel dataset from Italy, an established democracy where traditional family structures remain important. Our within-individual estimates show that marriage increases men’s participation to women’s higher pre-marital levels, particularly so in low-income families. We also find that infants depress maternal turnout, especially among more traditional families, whereas primary school children stimulate paternal turnout. Exploring aggregate-level consequences, we show that demographic trends in marriage and fertility have contributed to recent shifts in the gender composition of the electorate. Together, our results highlight the importance of the family as a variable in political analyses. [R]
73.6192 BEN-ASHER, Smadar ; SOREK, Israel ; SHIDLOVSKY, Eldad —
Standardization is a mechanism used to create uniformity and express the equal status of citizens facing governmental institutions. However, when standardization in various life aspects ignores fundamental differences between groups and individuals, it might increase inequality, compromise justice, and create explicit or implicit discrimination. This study exposes the mistake of identifying standardization with equality by looking at a specific and complex human situation. The linkage between standards and justice will be examined through three angles: philosophical, economic, and social. As a case study we will examine the case of Bedouin IDF widows. This group of women suffers from the uniformity of rights granted to widows of IDF (Israeli Defense Forces) soldiers, since the benefits included within these rights are not suitable to their lifestyle. We will demonstrate how culture-insensitive standards distort distributive justice and prevent certain groups, usually marginal and excluded ones, from accessing the resources and benefits to which they are entitled. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 73.5852]
73.6193 BEN-PORAT, Guy, et al.—
There is a growing focus in political science on right-wing populist parties. But few comparative studies address their discourses and politics relating to family values, especially when involved with policy-making. Moreover, many comparative works about populism focus on a single region — often Western and Eastern Europe. This paper adopts a definition of populism with two different dimensions: the vertical (inclusive), which regards elites, and the horizontal (exclusive), which addresses ‘foreigners’. The use of family values in political discourse and policy pertains to the two axes of populism. On the one hand are elites who are accused of being uncommitted to traditional values and morally corrupt. On the other hand are demographic concerns regarding declining birth rates among native populations and immigrants with large families. The stress on family values can also originate from a value orientation – or merely a tactical move – engendered by political competition. This paper specifically examines the politics of family values in the context of policies concerning gender equality, family planning and LGBT rights in three countries: Israel, Italy and Turkey. [R]
73.6194 BENESCH, Christine, et al.—
We analyze how the introduction of the voting advice application smartvote in Switzerland affects voter turnout, voting behavior, and electoral outcomes. The Swiss context offers an ideal setting to identify the causal effects of voting advice applications using real-world aggregate data because smartvote was introduced in different cantons at different points in time. We find that smartvote does not affect turnout but that voters more actively select candidates instead of parties by splitting their ballot. Our findings suggest that no specific party seems to benefit from the change in voting behavior. [R]
73.6195 BENOS, Nikos ; KAMMAS, Pantelis —
This paper advances the hypothesis that individuals in more ethnically fragmented societies, participate less in social groups. More precisely, the empirical analysis places the spotlight on trade unions and investigates whether ethnic diversity affects the decision of workers to participate in them. The analysis takes place along two layers: (1) country-level and (2) individual-level. First, building on a set of innovative instruments derived from the parasite-stress theory of values and sociality, our country-level analysis seeks to exploit exogenous sources of variation in ethnic diversity and establish a convincing causal relationship between ethnic diversity and trade union density across countries. In turn, we employ individuallevel data from the European Social Survey (ESS) and investigate whether immigrants who cïme from more ethnically fragmented societies participate less in trade unions in their European countries of residence. [R, abr.]
73.6196 BERGEM, Ingeborg Misje —
This article reviews the political views of the Yellow Vest Movement (YVM) and explores whether it can best be described as a left-wing populist movement, understood as being primarily inclusionary and focused on socioeconomic issues, or a right-wing populist movement, understood as being primarily exclusionary and attentive to struggles over ethnic identity. This examination will be done by comparing the YVM’s political demands to the presidential programs of the Rassemblement National (RN) and La France Insoumise (LFI), which in this article is used as prototypes on rightwing populism and left-wing populism. Since its early beginning in 2018, the YVM has been branded as an avatar of the extreme right. By comparing the claims of the YVM to the programs of the RN and LFI, I argue that this interpretation of the YVM is not substantiated by their actual political demands, which are more aligned with LFI than with the RN. [R]
73.6197 BERINSKY, Adam J., et al.—
Selection bias represents a persistent challenge to understanding the effects of social context on political attitudes. We focus on a unique sample of individuals who were assigned to a new social context for an extended period, without control over the location they were sent: missionaries for the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints. We interviewed a sample of 1,804 young people before and after their mission service in a diverse set of locations around the world and find strong evidence that the policy views of respondents became more tolerant toward undocumented immigrants when respondents were assigned to places where contact with immigrants was more likely. Within the US, missionaries who served in communities with larger Hispanic populations, and those assigned to speak a language other than English, experienced the largest increases in pro-immigrant attitudes. [R, abr.]
73.6198 BERKER, Lars E. ; POLLEX, Jan —
Recently, political contestation on climate change has increased considerably. Not least, world-wide protests by the Fridays for Future movement have brought the issue to the fore of the policy-agenda. However, following classic ideas of partisan theory, the movement depends on political parties to translate their demands into political action. Based on multiple data sources (i.e. social media and parliamentary debates), we, therefore, investigate reactions of 19 parties to the movement in three European countries (Austria, Germany and Sweden) and analyse reasons for their varying responses in a qualitative comparative analysis (QCA). Overall, parties stay true to their general ideological position and party competition only exerts a mild impact on party reactions to the movement while their traditional left-right positioning or environmental preferences explain their responses. Thus, despite Fridays for Future’s moderate demands and its measured appearance it was not able to generate general support from centre-right parties. [R]
73.6199 BERLINSKI, Nicolas, et al.—
Political elites sometimes seek to delegitimize election results using unsubstantiated claims of fraud. Most recently, Donald Trump sought to overturn his loss in the 2020 US presidential election by falsely alleging widespread fraud. Our study provides new evidence demonstrating the corrosive effect of fraud claims like these on trust in the election system. Using a nationwide survey experiment conducted after the 2018 midterm elections — a time when many prominent Republicans also made unsubstantiated fraud claims — we show that exposure to claims of voter fraud reduces confidence in electoral integrity, though not support for democracy itself. The effects are concentrated among Republicans and Trump approvers. Worryingly, corrective messages from mainstream sources do not measurably reduce the damage these accusations inflict. These results suggest that unsubstantiated voter-fraud claims undermine confidence in elections, particularly when the claims are politically congenial, and that their effects cannot easily be mitigated by fact-checking. [R]
73.6200 BERLUCCHI, Antonio Benasaglio ; KELLAM, Marisa —
When backsliding occurs at the hands of populist presidents who were elected in landslide elections, producing dominant executives with few institutional checks and weak opposition parties, should we blame the decline in democracy on their populist ideology, their presidential powers, or their parties’ dominance in the legislature? The literature on democratic backsliding has mostly arrived at a consensus on what backsliding entails and collectively has revealed its growing prevalence around the globe. Yet, scholars have not settled on causal explanations for this phenomenon. We assess the evidence for recent ideology-centered arguments for democratic backsliding relative to previous institutional arguments among all democratically elected executives serving in all regions of the world since 1970. We use newly available datasets on populist leaders and parties to evaluate the danger of populists in government, and we employ matching methods to distinguish the effects of populist executives, presidents as chief executives, and dominant executives on the extent of decline in liberal democracy. [R]
73.6201 BERZ, Jan ; KROEBER, Corinna —
This article sheds light on how MPs’ priorities change in the course of legislative terms. We purport that members of parliament (MPs) balance a variety of incentives over the electoral cycle. While they emphasize issues that relate to the policy-making agenda of their party right after an election, competition with other parties increasingly gains influence over legislators’ priorities as the next election day approaches. We show supportive evidence for these patterns based on a unique longitudinal dataset combining information on sponsorship of legislative proposals, public opinion, party manifestos, and committee chair positions in Germany between 1990 and 2013. By bringing variation within the electoral cycle to our attention, the results enhance our understanding of the factors that set the incentive structure for MPs and the relationship between party competition and legislative behavior. [R]
73.6202 BESCH, Johannes ; LÓPEZ-ORTEGA, Alberto —
Various studies show that voters appreciate individual legislators who dissent against their party as it increases their valence appeal. Simultaneously, political psychology research shows that right voters consider loyalty substantially more important than left voters. However, whether ideology moderates voter reactions to legislator dissent is so far unexplored, similarly to the question of whether voters also appreciate factional dissent of a group of legislators. This article investigates these two questions employing a survey experiment with Spanish citizens. We find that voters indeed appreciate factional dissent and that ideology moderates how voters react to dissent. While left voters welcome all forms of factional dissent more than party loyalty, right voters value party loyalty more than some forms of factional dissent. The results suggest that legislators face different benefits of dissent depending on the ideological composition of their electorate, with important implications for legislator behaviour and party cohesion. [R]
73.6203 BETTARELLI, Luca ; REILJAN, Andres ; VAN HAUTE, Emilie —
This research note investigates the scope of regional variations in levels of affective polarization across Europe and contrasts it with national scores to highlight the theoretical and empirical interest of a disaggregated approach. Using all waves of the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems (CSES) dataset, we compute an affective polarization score for 143,857 individuals and aggregate these scores in 190 regions nested in 30 countries, across a period ranging from 1996 to 2019, covering 105 elections. We map variations in affective polarization across regions, both cross-sectionally and longitudinally. Our results reveal that the range of scores is larger across regions than between countries and that approximately half of the variation in affective polarization scores can be attributed to withincountry heterogeneity. [R, abr.]
73.6204 BHERER, Laurence ; DUFOUR, Pascale ; MONTAMBEAULT, Françoise —
Targeted citizen actions in urban spaces, dumpster diving, responsible consumption movements or small acts of everyday resistance are all examples of what we call informal modes of participation. Such initiatives are not new, nor do they pertain to a particular geographic arena. However, it is only recently that social scientists have started to pay attention to such activities: scholars from urban studies, development studies, political sociology, and critical geography have started to address this phenomenon. After discussing the existing literature on this topic, this introduction proceeds to define and operationalize the concept of informal participation, while also providing a common analytical framework for dialogue among the six contributions to this special issue. [R, abr.]
73.6205 BILODEAU, Antoine ; TURGEON, Luc —
Some studies suggest that the PQ’s proposed Charter of Values and Bill 21 have fostered a sense of exclusion among members of religious minorities. However, there is no study to date that compares the sense of belonging of religious minorities before and after these legislative projects were put on the agenda. Grounded in research on “focusing events” and drawing on data from three surveys conducted in 2012, 2014 and 2019, our study examines the impact of the secularism debates on racialized immigrants’ sense of belonging in Quebec. Our results show that a deficit of belonging to Quebec relative to Canada already existed in 2012, but that it was circumscribed to certain groups, notably those of non-Christian denominations and non-French speakers. Our analyses also show that with debates on secularism, the Quebec belonging deficit has extended to non-religious minorities and Francophones. [R]
73.6206 BITEN, Merve ; KUHN, Theresa ; VAN DER BRUG, Wouter —
Austerity policies tend to be generally unpopular and national governments have been found to lose support when they implement such policies. However, during the sovereign debt crisis, governments of ‘bailout countries’ were pressured by EU institutions to implement austerity measures. Did austerity measures affect trust in the EU? We investigate the impact of fiscal austerity on EU trust and how perceptions of responsibility and political ideology moderate this relationship. We apply multilevel models to Eurobarometer surveys and data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to analyze changes in trust in the EU in 27 EU-countries (2013-2015). Our results indicate that austerity has a negative effect on trust in the EU, but only among those who hold the EU responsible for austerity policies. We find no significant moderating effect of ideology. [R]
73.6207 BJÅNESØY, Lise —
With the rise and influence of populist radical right (PRR) parties in Western European democracies, research has focused on explaining the PRR vote. We know less about the reasons why many people would never vote for these parties. Recent research has pointed out that negative partisanship may be particularly prominent in the case of PRR parties. This study demonstrates that the PRR Progress Party in Norway has the highest share of negative partisanship of all parties in the system. Novel analysis of open-ended responses reveal that negative partisans react against both the party’s policies and rhetorical style. The analysis reveals that negative partisans mirror voters of the PRR only to some extent. Notably, they emphasize disagreements with the party’s views on humanity, and with environmental and economic policies. [R, abr.]
73.6208 BLANCHARD, Maxime —
In 1974, Richard Simeon and David Elkins published an influential analysis of provincial political cultures. Nearly half a century later, their results still operate as the baseline against which new studies compare their own results. In this article, I re-examine their conclusions, combining five decades of Canadian public opinion survey data (1974-2019). The article replicates their analysis by focusing on three dimensions of political culture examined by Simeon and Elkins: political cynicism, internal political efficacy and external political efficacy. It also expands on their work by accounting for contextual factors that can potentially drive or hinder provincial differences in political culture. The results suggest that Simeon and Elkins’ interpretation of Canadian provincial political cultures needs to be updated, as the patterns they found differ markedly from those identified in this article. [R]
73.6209 BLAVATSKYY, Pavlo —
The referendum (or compound majority) paradox occurs when the majority of voters in the majority of districts supports an issue/candidate but the majority of voters across all districts opposes the same issue/candidate (or vice-versa). We calculate the likelihood of this social choice anomaly for any (possibly large) odd number of districts and any (possibly large) odd number of voters per district. The likelihood of the paradox is close to 50% when the issue/candidate is divisive (voters across all districts are split almost 50%-50%). The paradox virtually disappears when the issue/candidate is supported/opposed by at least two-thirds of all voters. [R]
73.6210 BLUM, Rachel ; CORMACK, Lindsey ; SHOUB, Kelsey —
Elected representatives have more means of public-facing communication at their disposal than ever before. Several studies examine how representatives use individual mediums, but we lack a baseline understanding of legislators’ relative use patterns across platforms. Using a novel data set of the four most widely used forms of written, constituent-facing communication (press releases, e-newsletters, Facebook posts, and Twitter tweets) by members of the US House of Representatives in the 114th (2015-2017), 115th (2017-2019), and 116th (2019-2021) Congresses, we generate a baseline understanding of how representatives communicate across mediums. Our analyses show that institutional, legislator, and district characteristics correspond with differential use of mediums. These findings underscore why medium choice matters, clarifying how a researcher’s choice of mediums might amplify the voices of certain legislators and dampen those of others. In addition, they provide guidance to other researchers on how to select the medium(s) that best correspond with different research aims. [R]
73.6211 BOCCARD, Nicolas —
Ideally, a representative democracy awards a genuine vote to each adult. We study this issue in competitive democracies with an election model combining district apportionment and proportional representation. Four classic seat allocation rules, including d’Hondt, are reframed as Dutch auctions, allowing important properties to be easily derived. The pros and cons of these methods are stated in terms of economic inequality; Sainte Laguë’s is shown to best carry the genuine vote ideal, both for elections and for apportionment. We next expound the interplay between these two components in generating an inequitable treatment of voters and develop the scale-free index of inequity best fitted to their concern. We apply it to 40 countries for the apportionment of electoral districts. [R, abr.]
73.6212 BOLIN, Niklas ; BACKLUND, Anders ; JUNGAR, Ann-Cathrine —
This study compares members of political youth organisations and explains variations in material incentives for enrolment using both organisation-level and individual-level factors. Empirically, it is based on a web survey of about 3,000 members of eight Swedish youth organisations. The analysis shows that young people have a complex combination of concerns, with the main dividing line being whether or not material incentives are important. At the organisational level, the prevalence of material incentives among members is positively related to the size of the mother party and whether it has government experience. Further, we find a positive association between material incentives and economic dependence on the part of the youth organisation on its mother party. [R, abr.]
73.6213 BOLLET, Diane —
This study advances the decline of Parent-Relative Subjective Social Status (PRSSS) as a reconciling factor among radical-right and radical-left supporters. While self-employed workers, men and rural residents perceive socio-economic decline relative to their parents and support the radical right, the well-educated, urbanites and low-income individuals are likely to feel similar decline given the rising levels of unemployment and social inequality. These structural changes may push the latter to support a party which stresses income inequality, a catchcry of the radical left. Using a 2017 Eurobarometer Survey, logistic regressions show positive associations between low PRSSS (versus equal or high PRSSS) and support for right- and left-wing radicalism in 28 European countries. [R, abr.]
73.6214 BOULIANNE, Shelley ; LEE Sangwon —
Many contemporary protests highlight global issues. These protests emerge as a method to influence global politics in the absence of formal structures for citizens to voice their concerns to global political leaders. Prior research establishes that political efficacy, political discussion, and political interest are important predictors of protest participation, but this body of research has not addressed the global dimensions of these variables. Using survey data from 2019 in four countries (USA, UK, France, and Canada), we examine the extent to which perceived influence on international leaders, political discussion of global affairs, and interest in global issues influence protest participation, accounting for the traditional framing of these variables in terms of national politics. We find that all variables correlate with protest participation. We also find that civic uses of Facebook increase the likelihood of protesting. [R, abr.]
73.6215 BOWERN, Claire, et al.—
Politicians’ voice pitch is known to affect voters’ evaluation of the candidates in the US. But to what extent is this true outside of the American context? To address this question, we conducted an original survey experiment in Japan. Our findings are threefold. First, in contrast to previous studies, voters in Japan do not systematically prefer lower-pitched over higher-pitched female politicians. Second, our findings suggest heterogeneity in the effect of voice pitch by voters’ gender – while Japanese women are indifferent as to female candidates’ pitch levels, men are more likely to prefer female candidates who speak at lower pitch. Third, preliminary analyses reveal limited evidence that female candidates’ political experience conditions the effect of voice pitch over voters’ willingness to vote for that candidate. Our findings suggest that lowering pitch is likely to increase female candidates’ electoral prospects by attracting male voters without backlash from female voters. [R]
73.6216 BRAGHIROLI, Stefano ; MAKARYCHEV, Andrey —
U-turns by populist parties are not a new phenomenon. The 2021 electoral campaign in Estonia was marked by episodes that combined cultural hybridity and political opportunism. The nationalist Conservative People’s Party of Estonia (EKRE) was reprimanded by the Language Inspectorate for using Russian-language campaign posters with no Estonian translation. The same party was celebrating Estonian independence with a concert performing Soviet-time popular music. These episodes appeared quite surprising in the Estonian context, but not unique in a wider European perspective. We tackle the following question: why and how national conservative parties appeal to groups previously treated as domestic others. [R]
73.6217 BUDIATRI, Aisah Putri —
While there has been a flurry of research on party system institutionalisation (PSI) and regionalist parties, very little research has been conducted on their imbrication. This study aims to fill this gap by analysing the impact of local parties on the party system in post-conflict Aceh, Indonesia. It contends that the presence of local parties in Aceh has had a hybrid effect on the institutionalisation of the party system. Similar to national parties, local parties in Indonesia have weak societal roots and party organisations that obstruct PSI in Aceh. That notwithstanding, local parties in post-conflict Aceh have assisted in solidifying the party system by improving the legitimacy of parties and elections and by creating a less fragmented party system. This hybrid effect is also strongly influenced by Aceh’s long wartime history and its post-conflict status. [R]
73.6218 BUTA, Oana ; GHERGHINA, Sergiu —
The representation of ethnic minorities is often investigated through the lenses of ethnic parties. Much less attention is paid to how parties belonging to the ethnic majority represent minorities. In particular, we know very little about why such parties nominate ethnic minority candidates on their lists in elections. This article aims to explain this process and focuses on the Roma candidates on ethnic majority party lists in the 2016 local elections in Romania. The study covers 289 party lists from 77 localities with a minimum Roma population of 1% from three different counties. [R, abr.]
73.6219 BUTZLA, Felix —
Increasing demands for democratization have been accompanied by a parallel rise in scepticism and doubt about the capabilities of representative democracies to ensure policy efficacy. I seek to address this democratic ambivalence by focusing on the demands for citizen participation in the context of local democracy. In a series of qualitative interviews, and using Vienna’s Seestadt Aspern, Europe’s biggest city development project, as an illustration, I examine (1) bottom-up and top-down understandings of democracy and participation among administration, city-planners and citizens and (2) strategies to reconcile inconsistent expectations of participation. I show that conflicting understandings of participation are dealt with in different settings and that, despite a public commitment to democratic participation, citizens, city-planners and administration alike expect a democratically concealed yet controlled management process allegedly ensuring more efficacious policy decisions. [R, abr.]
73.6220 BYUN, Joshua ; CARSON, Austin —
How does leader age affect international politics? Challenging the existing literature’s focus on chronological age, we argue that leaders do not age the same in the eyes of their beholders. Combining insights from gerontology on age-related stereotypes and studies of face-to-face diplomacy, we show that judgments about age informed by high-level personal encounters have profound consequences for how elderly leaders are appraised and treated by their counterparts. A leader who betrays indicators of “senility” during face-to-face encounters will elicit harsh judgments by activating negative stereotypes about aging. Older leaders can also surprise their interlocutors: those long thought to be senile may show themselves as mentally and physically fit. Perceptions of age, in turn, shape how observers understand a leader’s agency and shape decisions to “engage” or “bypass” the leader in the context of interstate cooperation. [R, abr.]
73.6221 CAMATARRI, Stefano, et al.—
The literature on the nationalization of party systems has found that decentralization of authority leads to increasing territorial heterogeneity of voting behaviour. In this article, we intend to further extant knowledge on this topic by exploring whether different levels of government imply distinct representations of party competition at the citizens’ level. We do so by analysing Twitter data collected during the 2015 regional elections in five Italian regions (Liguria, Veneto, Tuscany, Campania and Apulia) to estimate national and regional party configurations by means of multi-dimensional scaling. Analyses show that national party competition is generally perceived in the same way across regions, but representations of regional political spaces tend to stand out from it and also to differ from each other. These results suggest that, in line with the process of political decentralization of authority, voters perceive party competition in different ways according to the level of territorial governance at stake. [R]
73.6222 CAMPION, Selene —
Extant literature argues that ethnic minority representation in plurality systems will benefit from the presence of sizable co-ethnic populations. I argue that the threshold for election depends not only on a minority population’s group size but a district’s level of segregation. I show that residential segregation can facilitate the increased representation of ethnic minority populations. Contrary to the prevailing literature, however, I find that increased segregation levels in cities with sizable minority populations decrease the percentage of co-ethnics elected to office. I support this argument with evidence from an original dataset on the local representation outcomes of Muslims in England between 2011 and 2021, which covers 434 district council elections. Using threshold modelling, I introduce the concept of the population threshold, above which increases in segregation level decrease Muslim representation. This article contributes to the electoral geography literature on ethnic minority representation. [R]
73.6223 CARREL, Marion —
While disadvantaged neighborhoods are often seen as “political deserts,” discreet mobilizations of young people rooted in everyday practices can be observed on the issue of discrimination. Within small groups of loosely collaborating individuals, they develop a mix of sociability, mutual aid to “get by in life,” and awareness raising on social and racial inequalities. Observing these kinds of informal participation practices gives us information on the repertoires of contention of the powerless. The ethnography of an association named Zonzon 93, founded by racialized young people in Villepinte, in the far suburbs of Paris, contributes to the understanding of informal participation in a French context which restrains the politicization process on discrimination. [R, abr.]
73.6224 CARRERAS, Miguel ; VERA, Sofia ; VISCONTI, Giancarlo —
Do men and women exhibit different attitudes and behaviors toward COVID-19 public health measures? Is there a gender gap in support for and compliance with government recommendations during a public health crisis? While the disproportionate effect of the pandemic on women suggests that they would oppose burdensome quarantine measures, theories of gender differences in prosocial and communion attitudes indicate that women should be more likely to conform with public health measures designed to protect the most vulnerable. We test hypotheses about a gender gap in attitudes toward public health recommendations through an original, nationally representative survey implemented in Peru, one of the countries hit hardest by the coronavirus pandemic, and the construction of a representative matched sample that allows us to make comparisons between women and men. We find that women are more likely than men to endorse lockdown measures and to support the continuation of a nationwide quarantine. [R, abr.]
73.6225 CARRIÈRE, Réal ; KOOP, Royce —
Despite long-standing academic interest in Indigenous peoples and the Canadian state, there has been little study of Indigenous elected officials as representational actors. We ask: What are the distinctively Indigenous forms of representation practised by Indigenous elected officials in Canada? And how does clarifying the role of Indigenous elected officials as representatives both contribute to and enhance our overall understanding of Indigenous politics, governance and sovereignty? We draw on the existing literatures on substantive representation as well as original interviews conducted with current and former Indigenous elected officials to develop an original conceptualization of Indigenous representation. These actors differ in their perceptions of themselves and their roles as representatives, the representational behaviours they engage in and the outcomes they seek. [R, abr.]
73.6226 CARRIÓN-YAGUANA, Vanessa ; CARRINGTON, Sarah J. ; VELÁSTEGUI MOYA, Gabriel —
Ecuador has one of the strongest electoral designs in terms of gender quotas in Latin America. However, there remains a significant gap between the number of women candidates and the number elected. To explain why a quota does not lead to an elected representation proportional to the quota we examine voter bias and elite bias in the legislative elections of 2013 and 2017. Results show gender bias toward female candidates, and not against, which is a surprising result in a country maintaining a culture of traditional gender roles on average. A breakdown of the voting patterns by gender, however, reveals that the overall voter preference for female candidates is driven entirely by stronger female same-gender voting than male same-gender voting. The lack of representation of women as frontrunners in a political party is likely to explain the gap between female candidates and elected members to the National Assembly. Elite bias against women, not voter bias, explains women’s electoral fortunes in Ecuador. [R]
73.6227 CASIRAGHI, Matteo CM ; CUSUMANO, Eugenio ; CURINI, Luigi —
Despite growing attention to electoral brands, political scientists have largely remained “color blind,” neglecting parties’ chromatic choices. Moreover, scholars dedicated limited attention to how party organizations converge on the use of similar structures and communication strategies, thereby engaging in a process of institutional isomorphism. We examine the logos of more than 300 parties in 35 democracies during the latest political elections. Our findings show that a strong relationship exists between ideology and the use of certain color hues: left-wing party logos mainly display hues at the red end of the color spectrum, while blue hues prevail among right-wing parties. Likeminded parties’ chromatic isomorphism, however, is moderated by country and party-specific factors. Notably, the correlation between color hue and ideology is stronger in Western Europe and among older parties. [R]
73.6228 CASTANHO SILVA, Bruno ; WRATIL, Christopher —
The rise of populist forces in Western democracies is often linked to representation failures. However, to date we lack causally identified evidence for the effect of parties’ representation on populist attitudes. We address this lacuna through a survey experiment conducted in 12 European Union countries involving 23,257 subjects. Our experiment manipulates citizens’ perceptions of being represented by national parties in the 2019 European elections campaign, and identifies the effect of perceived representation on populist attitudes. The results reveal that poor representation increases populist attitudes in respondents that did not express such attitudes pretreatment, but has no effect among those who were already populist. We demonstrate that this effect is primarily due to parties’ representation failures triggering citizens’ anti-elite sentiment. [R]
73.6229 CASTRO CORNEJO, Rodrigo —
What prompted so many voters in Mexico to abandon the traditional parties and support MORENA and its candidate, Andrés Manuel López Obrador? This research relies on data from Mexico’s National Electoral Study (2018). The results show that support for López Obrador is strongly associated with affective polarization and the perception that the PRI and PAN represented the same political alternative. In turn, retrospective evaluations and ideology were not associated with López Obrador’s victory. This research note contributes to our understanding of Mexico’s historical elections as well as to the broader literature on the Latin American left. The success of the political left in Mexico is not rooted on voters’ programmatic preferences. In 2018, Mexican voters rejected the mainstream political establishment by supporting Lopez Obrador’s third bid for the Presidency. [R, abr.]
73.6230 CATALINAC, Amy ; MURAOKA, Taishi —
More than 50 studies have examined the programmatic incumbent support hypothesis, which posits that once enacted, programmatic policies increase electoral support for the incumbent. Despite the careful attention to causal inference in this work, empirical findings have been strikingly inconsistent. We make the case that these inconsistent results are likely explained by incumbents’ strategic responses to the enactment of a programmatic policy. Specifically, incumbents have good reasons to distribute different amounts of non-programmatic goods to voters who do and do not receive a programmatic policy. To examine this conjecture, we turn to the case of Japan, where municipalities receive allocations of nonprogrammatic goods and vary in their eligibility for a programmatic policy (a snow subsidy) according to plausibly exogenous factors. Using a geographic regression discontinuity design, we find that municipalities receiving the programmatic policy receive systematically more non-programmatic goods than municipalities that do not. [R]
73.6231 CELLA, Michela ; MANZONI, Elena —
We model voters’ gender bias as a prejudice on women’s competence coming from a distorted prior. We analyse the effect of this bias in a twoperiod two-party election model in which voters care about both policy preference and competence. We find that, if voters (wrongly) believe that women are drawn from a distribution of competences with higher weights on lower values, female politicians are less likely to win office but, when elected, they are on average more competent than male elected officials. As a consequence, female incumbents seek re-election more often. [R]
73.6232 CERQUA, Augusto ; ZAMPOLLO, Federico —
We investigate the influence of anti-immigrant parties on foreigners’ location choices. Considering Italian municipal elections from 2000 to 2018, we create a comprehensive database that includes a classification of the anti-/pro-immigration axis of leading political parties based on specialists’ assessments. Adopting a bias-corrected regression discontinuity design, we find that the election of a mayor supported by an anti-immigrant coalition significantly affects immigrants’ location choices only when considering the most recent years. This finding is not driven by the enactment of policies against immigrants but by an ‘inhospitality effect’, which has become stronger over time due to the exacerbation of political propaganda. Therefore, foreigners’ flows are influenced by the local political environment only when immigration is central to the political debate. [R]
73.6233 CHARRON, Nicholas ; LAPUENTE, Victor ; RODRÍGUEZPOSE, Andrés —
Why have some territories performed better than others in the fight against COVID-19? This paper uses a novel dataset on excess mortality, trust and political polarization for 165 European regions to explore the role of social and political divisions in the remarkable regional differences in excess mortality during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. First, we investigate whether regions characterized by a low social and political trust witnessed a higher excess mortality. Second, we argue that it is not only levels, but also polarization in trust among citizens – in particular, between government supporters and non-supporters — that matters for understanding why people in some regions have adopted more pro-healthy behaviour. Third, we explore the partisan make-up of regional parliaments and the relationship between political division — or what we refer to as ‘uncooperative politics’. We hypothesize that the ideological positioning — in particular those that lean more populist — and ideological polarization among political parties is also linked to higher mortality. Accounting for a host of potential confounders, we find robust support that regions with lower levels of both social and political trust are associated with higher excess mortality, along with citizen polarization in institutional trust in some models. [R, abr.]
73.6234 CHATTERJEE, Somdeep, et al.—
We exploit plausibly exogenous variation in perceptions of electoral credibility following the introduction of a technology-induced voting reform in India and find significant impacts on political competition. Electronic voting machines in India were mandated to include an additional layer of transparency by the introduction of a Voter-Verified Paper Audit Trail (VVPAT). We find that with the introduction of VVPAT, the winning margins and voteshare of winners decline whereas the number of candidates in the average race increases. The results are robust to econometric concerns arising out of staggered implementation of the program providing support to our identification design. Our results also point to heterogeneous effects of the VVPAT roll-out in constituencies that received it only once relative to those that got the VVPAT in two successive elections. [R, abr.]
73.6235 CHEN Xi ; YANG Kai —
Despite the government’s enormous efforts to forestall widespread protests, China still witnessed many cross-provincial protests in the post-1989 era. How did Chinese citizens find the opportunity to stage cross-provincial protests in a political environment highly hostile to coordination beyond the community level? By tackling this puzzle, this study illuminates the Chinese state’s sophisticatedly differentiated strategies for coping with collective protests. Rather than attribute state leaders’ threat perceptions to static dimensions of protest movements, we posit that dynamic dimensions such as the pathway of scale shift often play a more important role. We propose a typology of pathways through which local protests spread across provincial borders-top-down, outside-in, and bottom-up — and elucidate how the interaction between the pathways and the nature of solidarity shaped government perception and strategy. [R, abr.]
73.6236 CHENG, Edmund W. ; CHUNG Hiu-Fung ; CHENG Hoi-wa —
Although the relationship between LS and political participation (PP) has been widely debated, its correlation and causality remain inconclusive. We explore the moderation effect of post-materialist value orientation. By conceptualizing the conventionality of PP as a continuous spectrum, we suggest a new typology beyond the dichotomous understanding. Seventhwave data from the World Values Survey in Hong Kong indicate that individuals who are more dissatisfied with their lives are more likely to engage in radicalized actions such as strikes and boycotts. This negative relationship is particularly strong among people with a post-materialist orientation, yet LS is not related to electoral participation and normalized actions, including peaceful demonstrations commonly regarded as ‘unconventional’ in previous studies. Furthermore, the results of propensity score matching reinforce the causal claim that LS predicts radicalized action negatively. [R, abr.]
73.6237 CHUERI, Juliana ; DAMEROW, Anna —
Although populist radical right-wing parties (PRRPs) are regarded as male-dominated, many have in recent years expanded their female electorate and reduced their electoral gender gap. Studies explain this trend as the result of a conscious strategy to target female voters through representation. This strategy is applied in both the descriptive and substantial realms, as PRRPs appoint female leaders and adopt relatively more progressive stances on gender, while still holding conservative, family-centred positions. However, the central question of whether and which of these strategies explain the closing gender gap in the populist vote has not yet been thoroughly comparatively examined. To answer this question, this study uses conditional logit models to explore the relationship between descriptive and substantial representation and women’s vote for a PRRP. The results show that a higher convergence between voter and PRRP positions on gender equality increases female votes for the PRRP. However, female descriptive representation does not prove relevant to explaining women’s vote for PRRPs. [R, abr.]
73.6238 CLARK, Alistair ; JAMES, Toby S. —
Elections depend on the thousands of people who give up their time to administer this crucial public service. They staff polling stations and ensure votes are issued, cast and counted. Poll workers are effectively ‘stipended volunteers’, receiving some limited financial compensation, but working for the broader public good. It is important to understand why people choose to give up their time to provide this fundamental public service to their fellow citizens. Using original data from a poll worker survey conducted in the 2015 British general election, this article investigates the motivations and incentives for poll workers volunteering to administer major elections in an important advanced democracy. Exploratory expectations are set out about the motivations of poll workers, and the relationship to their socioeconomic characteristics, and levels of social capital and satisfaction with democracy. Contrary to expectations, the findings note that, earning some extra money is important to many, although motivations are more broadly structured around solidary, purposive and material motivations. [R, abr.]
73.6239 CLARK, Stephen D. ; LOMAX, Nik —
Gaining an understanding of the concerns and aspirations of a country’s diaspora can help domestic politicians to better connect with this community and gain their support in elections. The United Kingdom’s diaspora is large and spread among many countries, and currently has the right to vote in UK general elections only for a limited time. However, there are proposals to abolish these time limits and this will make this community of increasing interest to politicians. This study uses signatories to the UK Parliaments e-petitions platform to gain an understanding of the foreign and domestic political concerns of this community. The analysis uses Latent Dirichlet allocation to identify common topics among the e-petitions and hierarchical clustering to identify commonalities among countries, territories and regions. It is found that there are five meaningful groups of such, and they are diverse in the topics that are of most concern. [R]
73.6240 CLARKE, Killian —
Since the 2011 Arab Spring revolutions many scholars of the Middle East have built and analyzed locally-sourced protest event datasets, which have been hailed for providing superior coverage to various off-the-shelf datasets that rely primarily on English-language sources. This paper assesses the extent of these coverage improvements. It shows that across five different MENA countries, locally-sourced datasets identify considerably more events than most off-the-shelf datasets. It then compares one locally-sourced dataset of protests in Egypt from January 2012 to July 2013 to two prominent off-the-shelf datasets: ACLED and SCAD. These comparisons reveal that both ACLED and SCAD significantly overcount large, urban, violent, and political events. Next the paper compares the Egypt dataset to data compiled by two Egyptian activist groups, and finds that the locally-sourced dataset is also biased in key respects, undercounting small labor events outside the capital. Finally, the paper demonstrates the implications of these biases by showing how statistical models of protest repression differ when using the locally-sourced dataset versus SCAD. [R, abr.]
73.6241 CLAYTON, Amanda ; DE KADT, Daniel ; DUMAS, Natasha —
A consistent finding in industrialized democracies is that having a daughter shapes parents’ attitudes and behaviors in gender-egalitarian ways. We test whether this finding travels to a young middle-income democracy where women’s rights are more tenuous: South Africa. Using a dataset of over 7,500 respondents with information on family structure, we find no discernible effect on attitudes about women’s rights or on partisan identification. We speculate that our null findings relate to opportunity: daughter effects are more likely when parents perceive economic, social, and political opportunities for women. When women’s customary status and de facto opportunities are low, as in South Africa, having a daughter may have no effect on parents’ political behavior. Our results demonstrate the virtues of diversifying case selection in political behavior beyond economically wealthy democracies. [R]
73.6242 CLAYTON, Katherine ; CRABTREE, Charles ; HORIUCHI, Yusaku —
The number of multiracial candidates seeking office is growing in an increasingly diverse America. This raises questions about how the media frame candidates with potentially complex racial backgrounds and how voters respond to these frames. We investigate the impact of media frames that emphasize race and gender attributes using survey experiments on Kamala Harris — the first Black woman and first Asian woman vice president. Our findings are mixed. In a survey experiment conducted after her nomination, headlines emphasizing different elements of Harris’s race or gender had no impact on public attitudes. In an experiment conducted after Harris was inaugurated, however, headlines that cued her gender only or both her gender and her Black racial background boosted popular support. Taken together, these findings suggest that some types of identity-based cues may matter, but the effects are sensitive to experimental settings and contexts. [R]
73.6243 COFFÉ, Hilde ; REISER, Marion —
Based on the German Longitudinal Election Study (2016), we explain citizens’ support for measures to increase women’s descriptive representation in parliament. Despite women’s underrepresentation, we find little support for positive action measures, and in particular for legal gender quotas. Binary logit analyses show that support for the introduction of positive action measures is not affected by citizens’ perceptions about the share of female MPs. However, experimental data reveal that receiving information about women’s actual proportion in parliament has an impact on citizens’ support for gender quotas, in particular among those who overestimate women’s representation. Once they learn that the actual share is lower than they thought, they are more likely to support the introduction of quotas. This indicates that support for positive action measures can be changed through providing the correct information. [R]
73.6244 COMELLAS, Josep M. ; TORCAL, Mariano —
In multiparty contexts, we know that affective polarization tends to cluster in ideological blocs, although the factors driving this process are still quite unexplored. In this paper, we contribute to filling this gap in the literature by exploring the capacity of ideological identity vis-à-vis issue-based ideology to polarize sentiments towards party voters into two opposing leftright blocs. Specifically, we provide empirical evidence that affective attachments to ideological labels increase the affective distance between ideological blocs to a greater extent than issue extremity and issue consistency. These bipolarizing effects of ideological identity persist even when the identity is inconsistent with issue-based ideology. Additionally, we show that bipolar affective polarization exerts little reverse influence on ideological identity. We support these arguments using an original survey from the TRI-POL project carried out in five multiparty systems: Argentina, Chile, Italy, Portugal and Spain. [R]
73.6245 COORAY, Arusha ; JHA, Chandan Kumar ; PANDA, Bibhudutta —
We argue that corruption in a country imposes asymmetric costs on its trading partners depending on their characteristics. Consequently, as the level of corruption in a country changes, its trade flows from some of its trading partners change more than others, depending on their characteristics, changing the composition of its trading partners. We focus on two characteristics of trading partners: (1) the level of corruption and (2) membership in the OECD Convention on Combating Bribery of Foreign Public Officials in International Business Transactions. Using the gravity model, we find evidence of a negative assortative matching in international trade with respect to corruption. We find that corruption in a country is negatively associated with trade flows from high-corrupt countries and is positively associated with trade volume from signatories of the OECD convention. [R, abr.]
73.6246 CORMIER, Ben —
Why do middle-income country governments use costlier sovereign debt markets when cheaper finance is available from official creditors? This research note argues that left-leaning governments with labor and the poor as core constituencies are likely to prioritize markets in their annual foreign borrowings. This is because markets provide an exit option from official creditor conditions that have disproportionately negative effects on working classes. This finding puts limits on disciplinary assumptions that leftleaning governments should have relatively less access to sovereign debt markets and thus use them less. Instead, left-leaning middle-income countries are likely to use proportionally more market finance as they fulfill annual foreign borrowing needs. This, in turn, shapes which middle-income countries are likely to become relatively more exposed to global debt market costs and pressures as they accumulate external debt over time. [R]
73.6247 COSTA-FONT, Joan ; LJUNGE, Martin —
Ideological spillovers refer to the modification of an individual’s core beliefs after learning about other people’s beliefs. We study one specific international ideological spillover, namely, the effect of the unexpected election of a US president (Donald Trump), who openly questioned the so-called ‘core liberal consensus’, on European’s core political beliefs. Using a regression discontinuity design (RDD) around the election event, we show that the Trump presidential election (TPE) gave rise to a ‘backlash effect’. That is, it steered core European beliefs in two specific domains, making Europeans more favourable to (i) globalisation and (ii) international mobility (about 10% change in the overall Likert scale range of the statement that immigrants contribute to a country). Contrasting with the hypotheses of ‘belief contagion’, we do not find evidence that TPE steered illiberal beliefs. [R, abr.]
73.6248 COWLEY, Philip ; UMIT, Resul —
Are there electoral consequences or benefits for legislators who deviate from the party line? We answer this question with data from individuallevel vote choice and constituency-level electoral results in the UK for the last two decades. Exploring the variations in voting patterns over time with a panel-regression approach, we find results that are most compatible with the null hypothesis, that is, that dissent by legislators is neither rewarded nor punished in elections. These results call into question the degree to which voters know and/or care about legislative dissent in parliament. [R]
73.6249 CRISP, Brian F. ; CUNHA SILVA, Patrick —
Legislators are likely to substantively represent groups to which they belong or with which they have some particular affinity. However, there are electoral systems that diminish this tendency and systems that promote it. More precisely, as district magnitude increases, representatives will be freer to focus on issues that are not decisive of vote choice for most voters. In this letter, we use a case of electoral reform and the nature of the postreform chamber (Chile’s Chamber of Deputies) to test whether increasing district magnitude makes it more likely that women will focus on women’s issues. A series of tests on multiple sets of observations show robust results for the conclusion that as the number of candidates elected in a district increases, elected women become more likely to pursue women’s issues. [R]
73.6250 CROWDER, Chaya —
There have been numerous calls to “thank” Black women for their consistent support of the Democratic Party. Vice President Kamala Harris tweeted that we need to do more than “congratulate” Black women. Harris stated, “Let’s address issues that disproportionately affect Black women.” With this in mind, understanding the formation of public opinion about issues that affect Black women is important. In service of this goal, I offer a theory and measure of a form of group consciousness called intersectional solidarity. I define intersectional solidarity as a set of political beliefs that is characterized by awareness of and distress over marginalized subgroups’ oppression. In this article I explore the influence of intersectional solidarity on policy support with a focus on policies that disproportionately affect Black women. Specifically, I examine the circumstances under which people support the Maternal CARE Act, a policy that addresses the racial disparity in maternal healthcare, as well as Equal Pay Certification which is a policy that addresses the race/gender pay gap. [R, abr.]
73.6251 CRUZ LERA, Estefania —
This paper analyses immigrant political incorporation through the political opportunity structure (POS) approach. This research acknowledges the contemporary interactions between the agency of Latinos and the political context of Chicago. The agency has three dimensions in the analysis: organisation, mobilisation, and policy incidence. The research design consists of a qualitative case study that includes observation and elite interviews. The main finding is how the degree of political inclusiveness of the city and the contextual factors merge with the multipronged agency, leading to complex interactions. Latinos in Chicago are experiencing the following dilemmas: (1) mainstreaming vs. autonomy in the case of organisation, (2) the simultaneous use of contentious and uncontentious mobilisations, and (3) the generation of community innovations to avoid depoliticisation. [R]
73.6252 DANIELE, Gianmarco ; AASSVE, Arnstein ; MOGLIE, Marco LE —
The article studies the long-term impact of corruption on trust toward institutions. Previous studies have demonstrated that exposure to corruption may lower institutional trust over the short term. Whether those short-term effects translate into a persistent effect is not known. We study the onset of a corruption shock that took place in Italy between 1992 and 1994. Using recent data collected by the OECD, we find that young first-time voters exposed to the corruption scandal and its political consequences in the early 1990s still today have significantly lower institutional trust and were more likely to choose populist parties at the 2018 national elections. [R]
73.6253 DAWSON, Stephen —
What determines the credibility of opinion polls, and for whom? Opinion polls assessing voting intention are an increasingly prominent aspect of pre-election media discourse, yet they often vary in terms of their estimations, who conducted the poll, and where the poll is ultimately published. This research note considers the determinants of pre-election poll credibility when citizens are exposed to conflicting polls, contributing to a growing field which considers the subjectivity with which partisan-relevant information is perceived in polarised contexts. Using a conjoint analysis in Turkey, this paper produces strong evidence that polls are perceived differently across partisan lines. Whereas government supporters rely almost exclusively on a poll’s result, opposition supporters place considerably more weight on the media source when determining poll credibility. [R]
73.6254 DE VET, Benjamin ; DEVROE, Robin —
Parliaments are still often criticized for being gendered — that is, for maintaining problematic inequalities between male and female officeholders. While research highlights how female members of parliament (MPs) take the floor less often than men, especially during debates on “hard” policy domains, much remains unknown about the role that political parties play in fostering such differences. Drawing on a novel data set on the use of parliamentary questions in Belgium (N = 180,783), this article examines gendered patterns in the substantive focus of MPs’ parliamentary work. It confirms that differences in the issue concentrations of male and female MPs exist, but they are larger when access to the floor is more restricted and party control is stronger. Our findings yield important insights into the gendered side effects of parliamentary procedure and shed some light on the “choice versus coercion” controversy with regard to women’s substantive focus of parliamentary work. [R]
73.6255 DECKMAN, Melissa ; McDONALD, Jared —
American political activism has surged recently among young citizens, particularly among women and people of color. At the same time, record numbers of women and minority candidates have been running for office. Does seeing more diverse candidates in terms of age, gender, and race propel more interest in political engagement among Generation Z, particularly women? Using a survey experiment embedded in a nationally representative survey of Generation Z citizens, we present respondents with Democratic politicians who vary based on these three criteria. Women who identify strongly with their gender express greater political engagement when presented with any candidate who does not fit the stereotypical image of a politician (older, white, male). They are spurred not only by role models who represent them descriptively, but by all politicians belonging to historically marginalized groups. These effects, which are not specific to just Democratic women, provide insights that can inform engagement efforts targeting younger Americans. [R]
73.6256 DEETS, Stephen —
This Rapid Communication examines Lebanon’s 2022 Parliamentary election in the context of other recent elections in consociational and populist regimes. The Lebanese electorate is now divided both by sectarian identity and by a pro- versus anti-establishment cleavage. This second cleavage makes Lebanon look more like other electoral authoritarian regimes. In light of scholarly work that ties electoral authoritarianism to late-stage neoliberalism, Lebanon’s recent election prompts renewed attention to the neoliberal assumptions embedded in its and other consociational systems. [R]
73.6257 DEGOYEV, Vladimir —
Never before has the term "Russophobia" been as widely and routinely used as it is today. Emerging in Europe in the 1830s, it denoted a phenomenon much older than itself. Strictly speaking, there was and is nothing phenomenal about this phenomenon in its traditional understanding as a special dislike for Russia and Russians. It just so happens that there is no love between states and people because this is unnatural for them and has no grounds. To compete, fight, ally, cooperate, trade, borrow, envy, despise, hate- anything but to love. [R]
73.6258 DEINLA, Imelda, et al.—
Election-related violence (ERV) is a recurring concern in the Philippines — considered to be one of the most violent countries in Asia. National and midterm elections which happen every 3 years are the most violent. As such, a thorough analysis on the nature of ERVs in the country is necessary to address the causes facilitating electoral violence. While there have been several ERV studies in the Philippines after the post-1986 democratization period, this article is the first that looks at electoral violence data at both the individual and aggregate levels. This study examines incidences of ERV in the Philippines from 2013 to 2019 by creating a novel incident-level data set, the Philippine Electoral Violence data set, constructed from online media reports. A total of 394 incidents were found over the three election periods covered in the data set, which includes at least one incident in 65 out of the 81 provinces in the country. [R]
73.6259 DELIGIAOURI, Anastasia ; SUITER, Jane —
This paper revisits the core concept of representation in light of democratic innovations and more specifically in the context of minipublics. We disentangle how representativeness is currently addressed within the minipublics’ literature and provide an in-depth conceptual analysis of how emerging modes of representation and participation can be reconciled with(in) traditional norms of representative democracy. This paper scrutinises and emphasises issues concerning legitimacy and representation in minipublics and the potential of scaling up their outcomes to the larger public. Acknowledging that neither election nor sortition can fully satisfy all democratic values we propose an interpretive path and a framework of a ‘hybrid’ representative democracy that can accommodate a multi modal representation which combines both electoral and sortition driven representation and can shift the conceptual boundaries of representation in modern democracies. [R] [See Abstr. 73.6512]
73.6260 DELLA PORTA, Donatella ; PORTOS, Martín —
In 2018, Swedish teenager Greta Thunberg began a school strike that quickly spread across the globe. After a ritual strike every Friday by school pupils to call for urgent action against climate change had gone on for several months, what had become Fridays for Future (FFF) called for various global days of action throughout 2019, bringing millions of people out onto the streets in the largest climate protests in world history. Drawing on unique protest survey data on FFF events across European cities in 2019, this article explores the structural bases of organized collective mobilization for climate justice. Nuancing narratives that focus on either the privileged background of climate justice protesters or the environmentalism of the poor, our results show the heterogeneity of the social composition of the protests, suggesting the need for cross-class alliances for mass mobilizations. [R, abr.]
73.6261 DENNY, Elaine K., et al.—
Community policing, and citizen cooperation with law enforcement more broadly, can improve local security outcomes by providing decentralized mechanisms for police accountability to local citizens. We hypothesize that five factors — alignment of citizen/police interests, relative costs of cooperation, costs of crime, prevalence of others’ cooperation, and perceived police efficacy — comprise a decision framework that guides citizens’ choices regarding whether to share information with law enforcement. We find evidence for this framework using rich survey and survey experimental data from a large nation-wide survey of Guatemalans and municipal administrative data. Our results indicate that increasing police efficacy, witness protection, and neighborhood trust boost the odds of cooperation with police by up to 55%. [R, abr.]
73.6262 DETER, Max ; LANGE, Martin —
The empirical literature is inconclusive about whether a country’s democratization has a long-lasting impact on former supporters or opponents of the bygone regime. With newly available individual-level data of former residents of the socialist German Democratic Republic (GDR), we analyze how supporters and opponents of the socialist system performed within the market-based democracy after reunification. Protesters, who helped to overthrow the socialist regime in the Peaceful Revolution, show higher life satisfaction and better labor market outcomes in the new politico-economic system. Former members of the ruling socialist party and employees in state-supervised sectors become substantially less satisfied. These results do not seem to be driven by differential reactions in the post-transition period, but rather by the removal of discriminatory practices in the GDR. [R, abr.]
73.6263 DIERMEIER, Daniel ; LI, Christopher —
We explore the dynamics of affective partisanship and policy divergence in a behavioral voting model. Voters are adaptive and influenced by partisan affect, while political parties are rational and office motivated. We show that the affective partisanship of the electorate and the divergence of party platforms can be mutually reinforcing, thus providing an explanation for the observed co-movement of affective and elite polarization in recent decades. Whether the induced behavioral path exhibits low polarization or high polarization depends on the salience of group identity and the number of moderate voters. Thus, shocks to those factors, perhaps due to such events as economic crises or war, can lead to the polarization or depolarization of the electorate and of the elite. [R]
73.6264 DIERMEIER, Matthias —
Populist radical right parties (PRRPs) claim to be particularly responsive to people’s needs and have been identified as a major source of disinformation. The present contribution sets up a field experiment to zoom in on one-to-one communication between voters and their parliamentarians. By drawing on pieces of misinformation that are present among different parties’ supporters, artificial citizen’s requests are sent to all 2503 German federal parliamentarians. In fact, PRRP politicians do not turn out to be more responsive and they are by far more reluctant to reject misinformation. In contrast, parliamentarians of all other parties largely object to misinformation, even if it matches their political positions and is shared by their electorates. In opposition to PRRP politicians who reveal signs of vote-seeking behaviour, established parties’ communication behaviour indicates a high degree of intrinsic motivation. [R]
73.6265 DIPOPPA, Gemma ; GROSSMAN, Guy ; ZONSZEIN, Stephanie —
COVID-19 caused a major health crisis and an economic crisis, conditions identified as conducive to stigmatization and hostility against minority groups. It is however unclear whether the threat of infection triggers hate crimes in addition to stigmatization and whether such a reaction can happen at the onset of an unexpected economic shock, before social hierarchies can be disrupted. Leveraging variation across Italian municipalities, we show that (1) hate crimes against Asians increased substantially at the pandemic onset and that (2) the increase was concentrated in cities with higher expected unemployment but not higher excess mortality. We then examine individual, local, and national mobilization as potential mechanisms and find evidence suggesting that (3) a xenophobic national discourse and local far-right institutions motivate hate crimes, while we find no strong support for the role of individual prejudice. [R, abr.]
73.6266 DONOVAN, Outi —
International efforts to manage conflict, instability and war-to-peace transitions have undergone a change. Where ‘liberal peace’ once informed peacebuilding strategies, international agencies now frame their work with recourse to ‘sustaining peace’. This change signals a shift towards pragmatism in thinking about conflict and peace-making in the face of the limitations of liberal peace. What is notable in the move to pragmatic modes of peacebuilding is the emphasis on women as agents of peace. While gender-sensitive peacebuilding is not a new concept, the prominent role it plays in the pragmatic peace merits attention. Drawing on feminist pragmatism, I argue that pragmatic peace represents a significant opportunity for shifting peacebuilding practice towards more gender-equal and gender-sensitive modalities. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 73.6822]
73.6267 DUGGAN, Alan ; MILAZZO, Caitlin —
What drives British parliamentary candidates to attack their opponents? Using an original dataset of approximately 7500 general election leaflets from four elections between 2010 and 2019, we offer the first study into the conditions under which British parliamentary candidates use negative messaging. We find that leaflets from opposition candidates and candidates contesting marginal (i.e., competitive) seats are more likely to include messages about their opponent(s), which suggests that candidates respond to the incentives and pressures that come from both their local and national environment when determining whether to include negative messaging in their leaflets. Moreover, we find that, as seats become more marginal, candidates from government parties become just as likely as opposition parties to engage in negative messaging, and therefore, voters in marginal seats are likely to experience more negative campaigns than those residing in seats where the outcome is a foregone conclusion. [R, abr.]
73.6268 DWORSCHAK, Christoph —
Does civil resistance work? Research emphasizes the effectiveness of nonviolent resistance over violent resistance in achieving campaign goals, with the seminal study Why Civil Resistance Works (WCRW) by Chenoweth and Stephan being the main point of reference to date. I revisit this pivotal finding in three steps. First, I reproduce WCRW’s results on nonviolent effectiveness. Second, I discuss how cases may have been overlooked due to a streetlight effect. Third, I quantify the results’ sensitivity using simulations. I find that WCRW’s main findings on nonviolent effectiveness are highly sensitive to variable selection, under-coverage bias, bootstrapping, and omitted variable bias. As a routine reference in scholarship and the public discourse, assessing the robustness of WCRW’s findings is relevant to practitioners and researchers. [R]
73.6269 EARL, Jennifer ; MAVES BRAITHWAITE, Jessica —
Social movements are critical sources of change in both democratic and undemocratic contexts, leading authorities and others to attempt to prevent, constrain, or otherwise control them. In this review, we argue that research relevant to a comprehensive understanding of social movement repression is scattered across disciplines, including sociology, political science, law and society, and area studies, with each discipline focusing on different aspects. We introduce a layered framework that positions social movement repression within a larger field of political repression, connecting these unproductively siloed areas. This provides diverse researchers a map for locating one another and situating their work in relation to other disciplines. It also highlights the importance of sociolegal concepts and expertise (i.e., on understanding how illegality is defined, how legal systems may be used to suppress minoritized groups, diverse motivations for legal action) to deepening the study of political repression generally and social movement repression specifically. [R]
73.6270 EGENDAL LEIPZIGER, Lasse —
This article offers an evaluation of cross-national measures of ethnic socio-economic inequality. It demonstrates that the measures differ in important ways regarding empirical scope, conceptualization, measurement and aggregation. Despite significant advances in the measurement of ethnic inequality, all measures have shortcomings, such as limited and biased coverage, as well as measurement error from the underlying data sources. Moreover, the empirical convergence between conceptually similar measures is strikingly low: some of the measures show no or even negative covariation. Four replication studies also indicate that extant measures of ethnic inequality are generally not interchangeable. Scholars should therefore take the various features highlighted in this evaluation into account before employing any of them. Based on this conclusion, the article offers multiple suggestions for improving existing measures and developing new ones. [R]
73.6271 EMANUELE, Vincenzo, et al.—
Technocracy has recently triggered growing scholarly interest, especially as an alternative form of ruling to both party government and populism. In the context of weakened parties-citizens links and increasing external constraints faced by Western European ruling parties, technocratic appointments might help deal with the responsibility-responsiveness dilemma highlighted by Peter Mair. However, research on the explanatory factors of technocratic appointments is still underdeveloped. This article argues that the recourse to technocracy is fuelled by electoral volatility. In contexts of high electoral turbulence — and even more when parties frequently enter or exit the party system — ruling parties turn to technocratic appointments to dilute responsibility. This expectation is tested through an original longitudinal multilevel dataset including 655 cabinets and 373 elections in 20 Western European countries from 1945 to 2021. [R, abr.]
73.6272 ERLICH, Aaron ; SOEHL, Thomas ; CHEN, Annie Y. —
Do discriminatory US immigration policies affect foreign public opinion about Americans? When examining negative reactions to US actions perceived as bullying on the world stage, existing research has focused either on US policies that involve direct foreign military intervention or seek to influence foreign countries’ domestic economic policy or policies advocating minority representation. We argue that US immigration policies — especially when they are perceived as discriminatory — can similarly generate anti-American sentiment. We use a conjoint experiment embedded in a unique survey of Nigerian expatriates in Ghana. Comparing respondents before and after President Trump surpisingly announced a ban on Nigerian immigration to the United States, we find a large drop (13 percentage points) in Nigerian’s favorability towards Americans. [R]
73.6273 ESTÉVEZ-ABE, Margarita —
This article has two objectives. One is to explain the rise of female political representation in local assemblies in Tokyo’s 23 Special Wards. The other is to examine how political women in Japan have or have not changed since the publication of Susan Pharr’s Political Women in Japan in 1981. When Tokyo first saw the emergence of a new type of local assembly women in the 1990s, they consisted of well-educated suburban housewives who led the Seikatsusha Nettowaku movement. In the past 15 years, however, Tokyo has witnessed a decline in ‘housewife politicians’ and a further diversification in the types of political women. This article pays special attention to a new type of political women called Mama Giin (literally, mommy politicians). Mama Giin are professional working mothers, who have become local assembly women to address deficiencies in childcare services. Their numbers increased as socio-economic changes and party realignment reshaped supply and demand for female candidates in Tokyo. Most of them accept the gendered responsibilities for childcare very much like Pharr’s New Women did in the 1970s. [R, abr.]
73.6274 EVERITT, Joanna ; TREMBLAY, Manon —
Recent increases in the number of openly LGBTQ2+ candidates have not resulted in a corresponding rise in the number of LGBTQ2+ politicians elected to the Canadian House of Commons, reviving the hypothesis of the “sacrificial lamb” candidacies. Drawing upon Lovenduski and Norris’ work on political recruitment, we analyze the backgrounds and experiences of the 172 LGBTQ2+ candidates who ran in the 2015, 2019 and 2021 federal elections in Canada. Our approach is based on the idea that LGBTQ2+ candidacies are the new sacrificial lambs of Canadian politics, although some of them seem less likely to be sacrificed than others. Indeed, we highlight how the electoral opportunities (for example, district competitiveness) afforded to LGBTQ2+ cis men are more likely to result in success than those afforded to LGBTQ2+ cis women or gender minority candidates. [R]
73.6275 FABBE, Kristin, et al.—
When it comes to successful refugee reception, the local level matters. Research overwhelmingly examines host communities’ attitudes, but endorsement from local politicians is equally important to resolving conflicts and facilitating harmonious interaction. Yet the preferences of local leaders and their willingness to support the resettlement process are understudied. We conduct the first-ever conjoint experiment on a representative sample of local elected leaders in Greece, a heavily affected country with many active host sites. We elicit elite preferences regarding refugee resettlement and find that local leaders are more likely to support it if they are involved in the process and can control the frequency and intensity of local-refugee interactions. Overall, our results suggest that processes enabling elites to control “exposure,” when combined with fair-share allocations schemes, can facilitate future resettlement. [R, abr.]
73.6276 FACCHINI, Francois ; MELKI, Mickael —
The emergence of a stable party system is a central aspect of democratic consolidation. Building a novel historical dataset, we analyze how economic growth affected the party-level electoral volatility during the consolidation of the French democracy over the Third Republic (1870-1940). We document an asymmetric effect in that positive economic shocks produced electoral stability, while negative shocks had not the expected destabilizing effect. Moreover, a positive shock had a disproportionally stabilizing effect during economic prosperity, four times stronger than during an average economic conjuncture. As France experienced strong positive shocks over this period, our results imply that the party system consolidation may have been driven by a few exceptionally high growth episodes. We also find evidence suggesting that positive shocks developed voters’ support for institutionally stable parties. [R]
73.6277 FARRELL, David M., et al.—
Ireland’s Citizens’ Assembly (CA) of 2016-18 was tasked with making recommendations on abortion. This paper shows that from the outset its members were in large part in favour of the liberalisation of abortion (though a fair proportion were undecided), that over the course of its deliberations the CA as a whole moved in a more liberal direction on the issue, but that its position was largely reflected in the subsequent referendum vote by the population as a whole. [R] [See Abstr. 73.6512]
73.6278 FARSTAD, Fay Madeleine ; AASEN, Marianne —
The 2021 Norwegian General Election was hailed as a ‘climate election’, yet the Greens only won three seats. What explains the centrality of climate change and why did this not translate into more success for the Greens? The academic literature emphasises the valence nature of climate change, meaning it is a consensus issue and that parties compete on competence. Presenting original voter data, we demonstrate this not to be the case. The Greens faltered not because of a perceived lack of competence, but because of fierce competition which fragmented issue ownership. Moreover, we show that fragmented issue ownership is not the result of voters’ differing views of competence, but the policy options presented by the parties. Our article therefore questions the valence nature of climate change and makes a significant contribution to the literature on the party politics of climate change, as well as on the (re)politicisation of climate politics. [R]
73.6279 FAWAD, Anusheh ; COLLINS, Andrea M. ; CRAIK, Neil —
The Canadian government recently oriented its foreign policy in a ‘feminist’ direction, including the launch of Canada’s Feminist International Assistance Policy (FIAP). At the same time, the Trudeau government has also reoriented Canada’s efforts to address climate change, ratifying the Paris Agreement in 2016. This article reviews Canada’s Paris Agreement commitments, formalized in Canada’s Nationally Determined Contributions and National Communications, through the lens of feminist analysis. While Canada has made significant efforts to mainstream gender into its climate commitments, these commitments emphasize a focus on women in the Global South and the reinforcement of common assumptions about women, climate change and development. [R, abr.]
73.6280 FEDDERSEN, Alexandra —
Parties face a dilemma when confronted with shifting public opinion or changing rival parties’ issue positions: while ignoring ongoing changes could lead to electoral losses, position shifts on a salient issue might be perceived as flip-flopping and alienate supporters. This paper proposes a model combining positional and framing approaches in order to understand how parties can shift their position on a specific issue without losing face. The empirical analysis of rhetoric-based estimates of party strategies draws upon a corpus of 8790 press releases issued by Swiss parties between 2007 and 2016 on the issue of migration. The results show that parties, rather than bluntly shifting their opinion on the issue, prefer to draw the public’s attention toward another set of frames that allows for a different position. [R, abr.]
73.6281 FERNÁNDEZ, Óscar, et al.—
The 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine sent shockwaves through Europe and led to rapid policy changes concomitant with variations in citizen perceptions. This article analyses how EU public opinion on security and defence matters has reacted to the war: what patterns of change and continuity can be detected, what differences are visible between Member States, and how might those be explained? Our analysis draws on big data-based sentiment analysis of news sources, reflecting a widely recognized connection between media coverage and public opinion — especially during crisis times — and complementing more traditional measurements of citizen perceptions such as opinion polls. Broadly speaking, we find that the invasion has heightened rather than fundamentally altered underlying trends. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 73.6654]
73.6282 FERRAIOLO, Kathleen —
Direct democracy in the US exists alongside representative democracy as a forum in which citizens participate in the political decision-making process. Through their cooperation or obstruction, legislators can smooth or impede initiative implementation. Existing scholarship has explored legislative attitudes and behavior in limited contexts, concluding that legislators are hostile to direct democracy and seek to undermine its results. In this manuscript, I examine legislative attempts to amend or repeal ballot measures between 2010–2018 across all initiative states. The analysis focuses on the two issue areas most subject to legislative involvement: marijuana legalization and “governance” policies. I conclude that looser rules governing legislative behavior post- passage, narrower vote margins, and marijuana- and governance-related measures generate more frequent, and more extensive, legislative alteration attempts. [R, abr.]
73.6283 FERRARA, Federico Maria —
Evidence that local exposure to Chinese import competition favors rightwing parties has often been attributed to the success of economic nationalism. We test an alternative account. Trade shocks catalyze cultural backlash, which drives support for conservative candidates, as they compete electorally by targeting out-groups. We assess this hypothesis in the 2008-2016 US presidential elections. Using individual-level survey data, we provide evidence that Chinese import shocks drive negative attitudes towards minorities and positive feelings towards in-groups. Opinions about free trade and redistribution are not affected. Results indicate that this rightward shift is primarily driven by non-Hispanic white and male respondents. These findings point to the role played by trade-induced cultural backlash in shaping political outcomes in the US. [R]
73.6284 FERRIS, J. Stephen ; VOIA, Marcel-Cristian —
This paper investigates the role of inter-party rivalry in enhancing federal government efficiency in post-Confederation Canada. It tests and finds confirmation in the data for two hypotheses. The first is that the ex post size of the first versus second seat share margin is a useful metric for the ineffectiveness of political parties in policing the incumbent’s spending behaviour over its period of tenure. The second is the hypothesis that shirking by the incumbent governing party is decreased by greater expected electoral contestability and expected contestability is related to the effective number of competing parties (ENPSeats) nonmonotonically. In this regard the results suggest that contestability in Canada reaches a maximum when the incumbent faces a value of ENPSeats that is closer to 2.5 than Duverger’s 2. [R]
73.6285 FIGUEIREDO, Miguel F. P. de ; HIDALGO, F. Daniel ; KASAHARA, Yuri —
When do voters punish corrupt politicians? Heterogeneous views about the importance of corruption can determine whether or not increased information enhances accountability. If partisan cleavages correlate with the importance voters place on corruption, then the consequences of information may vary by candidate, even when voters identify multiple candidates as corrupt. We provide evidence of this mechanism from a field experiment in a mayoral election in Brazil where a reputable interest group declared both candidates corrupt. We distributed fliers in the runoff mayoral election in São Paulo. Informing voters about the challenger’s record reduced turnout by 1.9 percentage points and increased the opponent’s vote by 2.6 percentage points. Informing voters about the incumbent’s record had no effect on behavior. [R, abr.]
73.6286 FINNEGAN, Jared J. —
When do governments adopt ambitious climate policy? Charting the theoretical territory between climate change politics and long-term policymaking, this paper highlights the role of electoral competition in shaping how politicians respond to the intertemporal tradeoff of one important climate change mitigation policy: fossil fuel taxation. The more secure the government is in office, the more insulated it is from the vagaries of political competition, and the more likely it is to impose costs on constituents today to generate a future stable climate. By influencing governments’ time preferences, competition structures the myopia of elected officials. I test the arguments using an original dataset of gasoline taxation across high-income democracies between 1988 and 2013. I find evidence that higher levels of electoral competition are associated with lower gasoline tax rates, and that the relationship is moderated by the level of costs imposed on voters, but not government partisanship. [R, abr.]
73.6287 FISCHER, Torben ; GIULIANI, Giovanni Amerigo —
The article investigates whether and to what extent the welfare policies of Populist Radical Right Parties (PRRPs) vary in diverse government coalitions. Relying on a multidimensional framework differentiating coalitional politics along the welfare size and deservingness dimension, we conduct a comparative case study analysing welfare reforms of the ‘standard’ centre-right/PRRP government coalition ÖVP-FPÖ in Austria and the ‘new’ populist government coalition M5S-Lega in Italy. We find that both PRRPs do not promote pro-welfare policies in general, but rather opt for selective expansion of benefits for ‘makers’, while aiming at retrenching benefits for ‘takers’. The central line of conflict with the centre-right ÖVP is mostly about the size of welfare policies, while with the socially more left-leaning M5S it is rather centred around the deservingness dimension. [R, abr.]
73.6288 FOSSATI, Diego —
In Western democracies, decentralization is typically associated with pluralism and demands for minority rights. In other contexts, however, decentralized governance may be instrumental to conservative and exclusionary ideologies. We illustrate this point with an analysis of Indonesia, a diverse and decentralized country. By leveraging an original survey, we find that Islamist individuals are significantly more likely to support decentralization than pluralists. This can be attributed to this country’s legacy of political development. As pluralist elites have long dominated national politics, political Islam has sought to empower regional governments, where Islamist agendas can more easily be implemented. [R]
73.6289 FRANK, Marco ; STADELMANN, David —
The German electoral system ensures that there is always at least one federal legislator per constituency. This legislator can face competition from additionally elected competitors to the Bundestag from precisely the same constituency. The existence of several legislators per constituency allows voters to benchmark their quality against each other. We analyze the causal impact of having more elected competitors from the same constituency on legislators’ personal success versus the success of their parties. Our data cover the legislative terms in the German Bundestag and federal elections in the period 1953–2021. In our analysis, we rely on exogenous variation in elected competitors by investigating changes induced by legislators who leave the Bundestag during the legislative period and their respective replacement candidates as instrumental variables. [R, abr.]
73.6290 FRANKO, William W. ; WITKO, Christopher —
Compared to other Western democracies, in the US fewer people subjectively identify as working class historically and many working-class individuals think of themselves as middle class. This likely has important political implications. We argue, however, that union membership can strengthen identification with the working class, through communications from leaders and interactions among members. Using General Social Survey data from five decades, we develop an original multi-indicator IRT-based measure of objective class status and find that union membership makes it more likely that individuals identify as working class, across all objective class groups. Panel data analysis shows that union membership predicts future working-class identification but that the opposite is not true, suggesting that these associations are causal. [R, abr.]
73.6291 FRAZIER, Mark W. —
The watershed in modern Chinese politics known as the May Fourth Movement (1919) offers insights into how a single protest event can quickly diffuse to other regions, draw in new participants and produce legacies in contentious politics. This article examines the May Fourth protests from the perspective of “eventful sociology” — an approach that examines how protests, repression and other contingent events link together to bring about landmark political episodes. It traces the sequence of protest and repression events in Beijing and draws on an original database of protest and repression events in Shanghai to emphasize the haphazard sequencing of actions and information flows that led the Chinese government to reverse its stance and concede to protestors’ demands. [R, abr.]
73.6292 FRIESEN, Paul —
In autocratic-leaning countries, the level of genuine public support for ruling parties and reasons driving it are often unclear. While such parties often rely on violence, electoral manipulation, and corruption to help maintain power, maintaining legitimate popularity is the ideal. Parties that emerged from national liberation struggles and other extraordinary events are thought to have developed strong branding and organizational structures. This paper tests the determinants of ruling party identification among Zimbabweans through seven geo-coded rounds of Afrobarometer data. The liberation war generated and solidified ruling party stronghold areas through democratic advantages such as nationalistic branding and robust party organization structures as well as autocratic tools such as the capture of traditional leaders, politicization of the military, and the use of violence against dissidents. [R, abr.]
73.6293 GARCÍA-RIVERO, Carlos ; CLARI, Enrique —
Historically, ethnicity has been considered to play a fundamental role in voting behaviour in Africa. However, researchers on the issue have found contradictory conclusions. The most recent research concludes that the African voter is more rational than expected. Overall ethnicity seems to be less influential than theory used to suggest. Against this background, this paper analyses vote for governing party in Africa and presents evidence that the method and data-set used will have an important influence upon the final result. The research takes form of a quantitative analysis making extensive use of survey data from 2005 to 2019. Results indicate that ethnicity, although not exclusively, is still an explanatory factor. At a glance, African vote is rationally ethnic. [R]
73.6294 GARNETT, Holly Ann, et al.—
Did the COVID-19 pandemic impact citizens’ comfort voting in-person? Did it influence their decision to vote, and if so, which method they used to cast their ballot? This article presents public opinion data from the first five Canadian provinces to hold elections during the COVID-19 pandemic: New Brunswick, Saskatchewan, British Columbia, Newfoundland and Labrador, and Nova Scotia. We find that comfort voting in person can be predicted by a person’s assessment of their own and their families’ COVID risk, as well as their interest in, and the importance that they place on, the act of voting. Those with higher risk, and the psychological engagement with politics that likely led to great awareness of some of the risks the pandemic posed to society, were less comfortable with in person voting. Additionally, we find that those uncomfortable voting in person were more likely to not vote at all, or when they did vote, to use the mail-in voting option. Although advance in-person voting was recommended to avoid election day crowds, comfort voting in-person could not predict in-person advance voting when compared to election day voting. [R] [See Abstr. 73.6312]
73.6295 GARZIA, Diego —
The Italian parliamentary election of 2022 was called following Mario Draghi’s resignation in June. The campaign took place — for the first time in Italian history — over the summer. Yet, its crucial moments occurred in the very first days, when parties had to present the respective coalition strategies. In a matter of weeks, Italy’s political system moved from the embryonic tripolarism inaugurated in 2013 to a full-fledged quadripolarism. The election saw less than two thirds of the eligible voting population participate – a new all-time low for Italian general elections. The result awarded a clear victory to the center-right coalition, due to its successes in most FPTP constituencies. Given the clear indications which emerged from the election results, the process of government formation took less than a month overall. This election can be considered historical in at least two ways. [R, abr.]
73.6296 GAVIN, Michael ; MANGER, Mark —
Although central bank independence is a core tenet of monetary policymaking, it remains politically contested: In many emerging markets, populist governments are in frequent public conflict with the central bank. At other times, the same governments profess to respect the monetary authority’s independence. We model this conflict drawing on the crisis bargaining literature. Our model predicts that populist politicians will often bring a nominally independent central bank to heel without having to change its legal status. To provide evidence, we build a new data set of public pressure on central banks by classifying over 9000 analyst reports using machine learning. We find that populist politicians are more likely than non-populists to exert public pressure on the central bank, unless checked by financial markets, and also more likely to obtain interest rate concessions. Our findings underscore that de jure does not equal de facto central bank independence in the face of populist pressures. [R]
73.6297 GENOVESE, Federica ; VASSALLO, Salvatore —
This introduction to the Italian Politics 2023 special issue gives an overview of the main events characterizing Italian politics during a year of large-scale policy reforms, presidential and parliamentary elections, and the unexpected Russian invasion of Ukraine. The authors pose three questions concerning Italian politics during the year gone by. First, from an institutional viewpoint, they ask whether the revival of majoritarianism as a principle of government formation represents the prelude to a return to enduring party-system bipolarity. Second, from an electoral and public policy perspective, they ask whether the formation of a government led by what many perceive as a radical right party betokens the start of a correspondingly radical shift in Italian public policy. Third, from an international relations perspective, they ask about the extent to which the Meloni government’s attitude to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and more generally to Italy’s position on the world stage and in international affairs, is likely to differ from that adopted by Draghi. [R, abr.] [Introduction to a thematic issue on "Politics in Italy 2023. From Mario Draghi to Giorgia Meloni: domestic political change and management of international crises", edited by James L. NEWELL. See Abstr. 73.6077, 6092, 6105, 6424, 6475, 6599, 6718, 6722, 6989]
73.6298 GHERGHINA, Sergiu ; TAP, Paul —
Research in politics uses fictitious politicians to explain different processes. In experimental designs, the participants know that these politicians do not exist. However, we know little about what happens when people are not aware about this, and it remains unclear if they distinguish between fictitious and real politicians. Our article aims to explain what makes citizens identify a fictitious party leader. We use individual-level data from a survey conducted in Romania on a probability representative sample. Our analysis tests the extent to which characteristics associated to two opposing groups in society influence the identification of a fictitious party leader. The empirical evidence bears important implications for the literature on political sophistication and for the research emphasizing social desirability bias. [R]
73.6299 GIDRON, Noam ; ADAMS, James ; HORNE, Will —
While dislike of opposing parties, that is, affective polarization, is a defining feature of contemporary politics, research on this topic largely centers on the United States. We introduce an approach that analyzes affective polarization between pairs of parties, bridging the US two-party system and multiparty systems in other democracies. Analyzing survey data from twenty Western democracies since the mid-1990s, first, we show that partisans’ dislike of out-parties is linked to elite policy disagreements on economic issues and, increasingly over time, also to cultural issues. Secondly, we argue and empirically demonstrate that governing coalition partners in parliamentary democracies display much warmer feelings toward each other than we would expect based on elite policy (dis)agreements. Third, we show that radical right parties are disliked much more intensely than we would expect based on policy disputes and coalition arrangements. [R, abr.]
73.6300 GINZBURG, Boris —
Many countries have introduced e-government petitioning systems, in which a petition that gathers a certain quota of signatures triggers some political outcome. This paper models citizens who choose whether to sign such a petition. Citizens are imperfectly informed about the petition’s chance of bringing change. The number of citizens is large, while the cost of signing is positive but low. I show that a petition that can bring change succeeds by a strictly positive margin. Hence, a citizen signing the petition is almost surely not pivotal. On the other hand, a petition that cannot bring change still gathers the required number of signatures when citizens are not very well informed, implying a failure of information aggregation. [R]
73.6301 GIULIANI, Marco —
Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain went several times to the polls during the 2010-2019 decade. It was a period characterised by the strenuous effort to recover the economic situation before the onset of the Great Recession; an effort, however, often constrained by externally imposed austerity policies, and by a refugee crisis that contributed to the growing salience of the immigration issue. The article adopts an original sub-national approach to examine if and how the economic situation and the incidence of immigration affected the electoral outcomes in the four South-European countries. Adopting a theory of retrospective behaviour, the research reported in the article confirms the association between employment and immigration levels, on the one hand, and punishment of the incumbent government on the other. However, the electoral effects of immigration are conditioned by the partisan composition of the government and, under centre-right cabinets, are aggravated by a negative economic conjuncture. [R]
73.6302 GODT HANSEN, Frederik —
For decades, scholars have discussed how to build greater citizen trust in government. I hypothesize that to increase trust in government, we should consider whether decisions made in bureaucrat-citizen encounters (e.g. applications for welfare benefits) are favorable to citizens. Building on insights from social psychology, I argue that in cases where citizens are presented with unfavorable decisions (e.g. rejection of applications), public employees can mitigate the negative impact on trust in government by appearing warm and friendly in the decision-making process. The argument is tested in a large-scale randomized survey experiment on a representative sample of Danish citizens, where I manipulate decision favorability and warmth. The findings reveal that outcome favorability and warmth strongly influence citizens’ trust in government. [R]
73.6303 GÓIS, Pedro ; MARQUES, José —
Portuguese emigration has a long global history and, in recent decades, has increased substantially and diversified its range of destinations. The Portuguese Diaspora is multigenerational and globally distributed, although diverse. How are those generations of migrants organized within the local spaces of the Diaspora? Based on an innovative survey of more than 500 Portuguese Diaspora organisations, this paper shows how migrant engagement policies and practices are evolving and dealing with the new types of Diaspora relations, organisations and institutions. The main output of this research is an exploratory typology of the contemporary apparatuses of these Portuguese Diaspora systems and their nodes. This typology characterises the modern political engagement of non-resident citizens through their participation in associations and other social networks. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 73.6536]
73.6304 GOLDRING, Edward ; MATTHEWS, Austin S. —
Why do dictators purge specific elites but not others? And why do dictators purge these elites in certain ways? Examining these related questions helps us understand not only how dictators retain sufficient competence in their regimes to alleviate popular and foreign threats, but also how dictators nullify elite threats. Dictators are more likely to purge first-generation elites, who are more powerful because they can negotiate their role from a position of strength and possess valuable vertical and horizontal linkages with other elites. Further, dictators tend to imprison purged first-generation elites — rather than execute, exile or simply remove them — to avoid retaliation from other elites or the purged elite continuing to sow discord. We find empirical support for our predictions from novel data on autocratic elites in 16 regimes from 1922 to 2020. [R]
73.6305 GOMEZ, Gabriel ; LEUNIG, Sven —
After its landslide victories of 2010, 2014 and 2018, Fidesz has introduced numerous institutional changes in the Hungarian political system. The academic research has emphasized the illiberal and antidemocratic character of these reforms, and the populist ideology of the party has been widely considered as the underlying force behind them. This study analyzes the most important reform that Fidesz has undertaken: the new Fundamental Law, enacted in 2012. We examine whether this change can be regarded as a violation of liberal democratic principles, and, if that is the case, whether it can be linked to the populist character of Fidesz. We found that some of the most criticized dispositions of the newly enacted constitution cannot be regarded as violations of liberal democratic principles, whereas other changes clearly constitute attacks to the foundations of Hungarian democracy. [R, abr.]
73.6306 GONTHIER, Frederic ; GUERRA, Tristan —
A significant body of literature has addressed the impact of party polarization on voting behavior. Yet little is known of the relationship between party polarization and belief systems. The present study argues that party polarization enhances the ideological consistency of belief systems and does so for the citizenry as a whole. We first demonstrate that the more party systems are polarized on economic and sociocultural issues, the more consistently belief systems are aligned with the progressive-conservative continuum. Second, we show that ideological consistency is greater in highly polarized party systems, not only among the most politically attuned Europeans but also among those with lower levels of political sophistication. Results have implications for our understanding of citizen competence and responsiveness to elite cues in polarized party systems. [R]
73.6307 GONZALEZ-OCANTOS, Ezequiel ; MORCILLO LAIZ, Álvaro —
We know little about what foundations do for transnational activism or the mechanisms via which they seek/achieve influence. We carve a middle ground between those who see donors as supporting actors in transnational advocacy networks (TANs) and those who think they distort activism through impersonal market forces. Our negotiation-oriented approach looks at the micro-dynamics of donor-grantee relations. We argue that influence is a function of donors’ organizational characteristics. Only some, especially foundations, have the vision/means to shape grantees. However, internal complexity can cause coordination problems, complicating influence. Additionally, if many donors exist, recipients’ leverage increases. It does so too if their expertise is in short supply. Using archival evidence, we reconstruct how Ford tried to shape the Inter-American Human Rights Institute, a pillar of the region’s human rights regime, and the factors conditioning success. [R, abr.]
73.6308 GOODS, Caleb ; ELLEM, Bradon —
How employer associations deploy their power resources to frame and pursue members’ interests in the making of public policy is of marked importance in many economies. This is strikingly so in Australia where employer associations have, over a 30-year period, shaped a critically important industrial relations policy space — climate change. In exploring this issue, in this article the authors combine studies from industrial relations and political science to show that, despite suggestions of employer association decline, these organisations exert influence over policymaking in both ‘noisy’ and ‘quiet’ ways. These forms of influence can be understood as linked to specific sources of power } structural, associational, institutional, societal — as employer associations define and pursue members’ interests. [R]
73.6309 GOURLEY, Patrick ; KHAMIS, Melanie —
An extensive body of literature shows that voters often credit or blame ruling political parties for economic successes and failures, respectively. This paper presents a related, but new possibility: whether local economic conditions impact Green party electoral outcomes. According to the environmental Kuznets curve, high-income countries will see decreased environmental degradation as they become wealthier, but it is yet to be seen whether this relationship is carried over to environmentally friendly political parties. Using a panel data set that includes over 250 elections from 26 European countries, we find that elections held during times of economic growth increase the vote share that Green parties win. This effect is especially robust for national elections, as opposed to elections for the European Parliament. [R, abr.]
73.6310 GRECHYNA, Daryna —
This paper analyzes the impact of parenthood on political engagement using the longitudinal British survey data and a repeated cross-sectional European Social survey. I construct a political engagement measure by applying confirmatory factor analysis to observable indicators of several different aspects of political engagement. Then, I estimate the impact of becoming a parent on political engagement based on an event study around the birth of an individual’s first child, using UK data. The results indicate that having children reduces the political engagement of female parents but does not significantly affect the political engagement of male parents. The impact on women is temporary and disappears several years after the birth of their first child. [R, abr.]
73.6311 GREEN, Donald P. ; SEVI, Semra —
A pioneering study by Loewen,, et al. made use of the Canadian legislature’s newly instituted lottery, which enabled non-cabinet Members of Parliament (MPs) to propose a bill or motion. Their study used this lottery in order to identify the causal effect of proposal power on incumbents’ vote share in the next election. Analyzing the first two parliaments to use the lottery, Loewen,, et al. found that proposal power benefits incumbents, but only incumbents who belong to the governing party. Our study builds on these initial results by adding data from four subsequent parliaments. The pooled results no longer support the hypothesis that MPs — even those who belong to the governing party — benefit appreciably from proposal power. These updated findings resolve a theoretical puzzle noted by Loewen,, et al., as proposal power would not ordinarily be expected to confer electoral benefits in strong party systems, such as Canada’s. [R]
73.6312 GREENBERGER, Michael —
This article introduces a framework to detect suboptimally located vote centers and demonstrates the method using North Carolina as a test case. Because traveling to the polls is a central cost borne by voters, choosing vote center locations is one of many decisions made by local election officials that has the potential to decrease voting costs or to introduce bias in favor of certain voters living closer to selected vote centers. This article proposes a method designed to detect vote centers that create longerthan-expected travel times for voters given a county’s population density. The article presents seven metrics to score travel costs borne by voters, and while controlling for population density, use these metrics to assess the optimality of vote center locations. This proposed method can be used by election administrators and other elections stakeholders to assess the optimality of existing and proposed distributions of county vote centers. [R, abr.] [First article of a thematic issue on "Election sciences, reform, and administration, edited and introduced by Martha KROPF. See also Abstr. 73.6294, 6315, 6338, 6466, 6513]
73.6313 GREK, Ivan —
This article attempts to explore three illiberal discursive practices (metaphysical state, right post-colonialism, and Orthodox pan-Slavism) that structure Putin’s ideological course and help to understand why justifications of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sound logical in Russian discourse. It argues that throughout the 1990s illiberal grassroots organizations popularized these discursive practices of the Soviet right-wing intelligentsia, engaged large masses in their projects, recruited members of Putin’s elites as followers, and were partially absorbed by the administration. My interviews with the representatives of the illiberal civic movement and Putin’s administration indicate that grassroots organizations successfully delivered their ideological modus operandi to the post-Yeltsin ruling class. Hence, an acute resemblance of the illiberal grassroots movement’s discursive practices with those of the Kremlin is hardly likely to be accidental. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 73.6396]
73.6314 GRIGORIADIS, Theocharis N. ; MOSCHOS, Dimitrios —
The population exchange of 1923 between Greece and Turkey consolidated the influx of more than 1.5 million refugees from Anatolia and East Thrace into Greece. In this article, we exploit the regional distribution of refugees at the sub-prefectural (province) level as a natural experiment in order to delineate the political effects of what the Greeks call the Asia Minor Catastrophe. We find that the settlement of refugees produced positive persistent effects on the electoral share of left-wing parties in the interwar and postwar periods. This is particularly the case for provinces with a high settlement rate of refugees originating from Asia Minor rather than from East Thrace or the Black Sea region. However, the refugee impact on the left-wing vote disappears completely in the post-dictatorship period. [R]
73.6315 GROSS, Joelle ; BALTZ, Samuel ; STEWART, Charles, III —
False information about the legitimacy of recent American elections has prompted a barrage of harsh rhetoric against the officials who administer them. This spike in negativity, largely occurring through social media, is driving people out of these essential jobs. This article measures the extent of this negativity, how it has trended over time, which state administrations are targeted by it most, and what sorts of accounts are sending it. By collecting every reply to any Twitter account managed by the agency or person officially responsible for administering a state’s elections, we show that the usage of keywords related to election fraud has spiked in recent years, while the sentiments of the replies have grown almost universally harsher. While left-leaning repliers are usually negative towards Republican officials, and vice versa, some officials have begun to receive negative replies from both the left and right, with sustained pile-ons led almost entirely by right-leaning repliers. [R] [See Abstr. 73.6312]
73.6316 GROSSMAN, Allison N. ; NOMIKOS, William G. ; SIDDIQUI, Niloufer A. —
Recent efforts to improve attitudes toward outgroups and reduce support for extremists in violent settings report mixed results. Donors and aid organizations have spent millions of dollars to amplify the voices of moderate religious figures to counter violent extremism in West Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia. Despite this investment, we know little about whether such messaging persuades the primary recruits of violent extremist organizations: at-risk youth in fragile settings. In this paper, we consider whether pro-peace religious messaging can promote social cohesion among school-age respondents in Burkina Faso. Using a survey experiment, we find little evidence that such messages affect reported attitudes or behaviors toward religious extremism and find instead that it can have the unintended effect of increasing intolerance toward ethnic others. Our findings carry lessons about the inadvertent priming of ethnic identities that can result in a backlash effect among certain societal segments. [R]
73.6317 GROSSMAN, Gene M. ; HELPMAN, Elhanan —
Misinformation pervades political competition. We introduce opportunities for political candidates and their media supporters to spread fake news about the policy environment and perhaps about parties’ positions into a familiar model of electoral competition. In the baseline model with full information, the parties’ positions converge to those that maximize aggregate welfare. When parties can broadcast fake news to audiences that disproportionately include their partisans, policy divergence and suboptimal outcomes can result. We study a sequence of models that impose progressively tighter constraints on false reporting and characterize situations that lead to divergence and a polarized electorate. [R]
73.6318 GUEDES-NETO, João V. —
This article contributes to the debate on the social distance of party affect by testing a set of hypotheses in 165 elections across the world. With a sample of over 170,000 voters, the results of multilevel mixed-effects regressions demonstrate that ideological radicalism, political knowledge, and external efficacy substantively affect how voters see the main political parties in electoral disputes taking place in 52 countries from 1996 to 2019. Satisfaction with democracy, however, is context-dependent; it positively influences affective polarization only when generalized democratic satisfaction is low. Furthermore, I show that these correlations remain stable regardless of the operationalization of affective polarizatio — hat is, based on two dominant parties and weighted for multiparty competition. These findings provide robust inputs to the study of party preferences and social distance in a cross-national longitudinal perspective. [R, abr.]
73.6319 GUIDETTI, Margherita, et al.—
This study examines how evaluations of male and female politicians are worsened by corruption scandals that disappoint expectations of honesty. Participants evaluated a fictitious politician before and after watching a video about a corruption scandal involving that politician. The manipulated variables were the politician’s sex and whether they shared participants’ political affiliations. Results showed that a female politician affiliated with the participants’ preferred party was the most damaged by the scandal because she had the highest expectations of honesty placed upon her. [R]
73.6320 HAAS, Violeta I., et al.—
Anti-immigration campaigns have helped far right parties to establish themselves in party systems around the world. We examine whether mainstream parties can employ wedge issue campaigns that divide the far right anti-immigration vote to win back electoral support. Wedge issues that cross-cut the anti-immigration vote may enhance the electoral support of mainstream parties, as long as they do not simultaneously alienate proimmigration voters. We evaluate this expectation using a panel survey experiment conducted during the 2021 German federal election. The first wave allows us to identify wedge issues that the mainstream CDU/CSU can stress to cross-cut the anti-immigration vote. The second wave raises the salience of these issues by manipulating the perceived issue agenda of the CDU/CSU using hypothetical campaign posters. [R, abr.]
73.6321 HALLIEZ, Adrien A. ; THORNTON, Judd R. —
In this manuscript, we examine the impact of voting for the winning candidate on satisfaction with democracy. While extensive evidence exists documenting this relationship, it is almost entirely correlational in nature. We take advantage of survey timing during the 2000 post-election period in the US when the vast majority of respondents were uncertain about who would win the presidency. Employing 2000-2002 panel data and using a difference-in-differences model, we are able to establish a relationship between electoral outcome and satisfaction with democracy that appears only for respondents interviewed once the outcome became official. We find an increase in satisfaction among winners and a parallel decrease among losers from 2000 to 2002. Importantly, our design allows us to go further than most studies to make causal claims. [R]
73.6322 HAMIDI, Camille —
By revisiting three empirical qualitative studies, the paper elaborates on conceptual and methodological issues pertaining to clarification of the use of the concept of politicization and “ordinary relationships to politics.” The first study was conducted at the end of the 1990s on voluntary associations of young people of foreign descent in the French suburbs; the second was devoted to ordinary relationships to politics among young people in working-class neighborhoods in France; the third involves ongoing fieldwork examining non-profit organizations and their relationship to the state, focusing notably on evangelical non-profits in the Boston area of the USA. Although the research questions were different, they dealt with ordinary relationships to politics (ORP). I present the terms of this controversy and the value in and limits of the various perspectives. [R, abr.]
73.6323 HANEGRAA, Marcel —
Which non-state actors gain privileged access to policymakers during global environmental negotiations? This paper offers a first systematic answer to this question. I argue that, overall, business non-state actors gain more access to policymakers compared to NGOs. Importantly however, the privileged position of business groups becomes less pronounced — sometimes even disappears — if countries are more developed, less reliant on fossil fuels, more democratic, or the impact of climate change is higher for a country. For the empirical analysis, I first analyzed all business groups and NGOs that participated in country delegations at UN climate conferences between 1997 and 2012 (n = 3,734). To evaluate privileged access, I compare actors which gained access to country delegations (n = 804) with the organizations that participated during the conferences as observers (n = 2,930). The results confirm that business has more privileged access in general but not in all countries. [R]
73.6324 HARBERS, Imke ; RICHETTA, Cécile ; VAN WINGERDEN, Enrike —
Electoral violence is perpetrated by anti-systemic actors opposed to the democratic system, as well as by those vying for power through the electoral process. Even though the motivations for violent tactics are distinct, we do not know whether intra- and anti-systemic violence differ in their effects. Focusing on state-level elections in India — a country that combines nationwide elections with persistent political violence — we demonstrate that the distinction is crucial for understanding spatial patterns of electoral violence and effects on election outcomes. Based on an original dataset of violence in legislative assembly elections between 1985 and 2008, we show that both tactics depress turnout overall but that the effect is larger for anti-systemic violence. [R, abr.]
73.6325 HARGRAVE, Lotte —
Do the styles politicians use influence how voters evaluate them, and does this matter more for women than for men? Politicians regularly use anecdotal arguments, emotional appeals and aggressive attacks when communicating with voters. However, that women politicians have been branded as ‘nasty’, ‘inhuman’ and ‘unfeminine’ suggests that these strategies may come at a price for some. I report on a novel survey experiment assessing whether voters are biased in their perceptions and evaluations of politicians’ communication styles. By manipulating politician gender and argument style, I assess, first, whether politicians incur backlash when violating gender-based stereotypes and, secondly, whether differential perceptions of the styles themselves explain this backlash. I find that style usage has important consequences for how voters evaluate politicians but that this is not gendered. [R, abr.]
73.6326 HARRINGTON, Cameron, et al.—
This Forum article reports on a meta-review of more than 19,000 published works on water security, of which less than 1 percent explicitly focus on race or ethnicity. This is deeply concerning, because it indicates that race and ethnicity — crucial factors that affect the provision of safe, reliable water — continue to be ignored in academic and policy literatures. In response to this finding the Forum calls for building intersectional water security frameworks that recognize how empirical drivers of social and environmental inequality vary both within and across groups. Intersectional frameworks of water security can retain policy focus on the key material concerns regarding access, safety, and the distribution of water-related risks. They can also explicitly incorporate issues of race and ethnicity alongside other vectors of inequality to address key, overlooked concerns of water security. [R]
73.6327 HARRIS, Eloisa ; RÖMER, Friederike —
In Western Europe, as immigration flows increase — or at least become more salient — and austerity measures place welfare states under pressure, policy reforms that extend or restrict access to the welfare state for immigrants are highly contested. Much academic attention has been paid to restrictive or ‘welfare chauvinist’ policy reforms and the role played by far-right parties and sympathisers in the policy-making process. Yet, leftwing parties, often considered the most susceptible to the ‘progressive’s dilemma’ between open borders and strong welfare states, remain underresearched. Using new data on immigrant welfare rights for 14 European countries from 1980 to 2018, and differentiating between social democrats, the greens and far-left parties, we show that social democrats engage in both reforms that restrict as well as expand, but on average, they tend to be negatively associated with immigrant welfare rights. [R, abr.]
73.6328 HASETH, Jostein ; HOLUM, Marthe L. ; JAKOBSEN, Tor G. —
There is a rich literature on public support for democracy. However, few have investigated the link between ethnic composition and citizens’ desire for democracy. We investigate the relationship between ethnic fractionalization and democratic attitudes in 91 countries in the period 1995-2014. We test this on a measure of public desire for democracy. The main independent variables are a time-variant ethnic fractionalization index and an index of ethnic polarization, based on time-series data from the Composition of Religious Ethnic Groups project. We make use of hierarchical modeling combining country- and individual-level data in order to approach this gap in the research. The main finding is that homogeneous societies show the largest degree of desire for a democratic society within established democracies while increased fractionalization and especially increased polarization is associated with a smaller desire for democracy. [R]
73.6329 HAUGSGJERD ALLERN, Elin, et al.—
Few existing datasets on parties and interest groups include data from both sides and a wide variety of interest groups and parties. We make several interconnected new datasets publicly available. The Party-Interest Group Relationships in Contemporary Democracies (PAIRDEM) datasets include cross-national data from three different surveys of (1) central party organizations, (2) legislative party groups, and (3) interest groups. A fourth dataset based on coding of party statutes and party finance data was established together with the Political Party Database. The datasets contain novel indicators on party-group relationships in up to 21 mature democracies. In this research note, we first present the main content of the datasets and the research design. Second, we present descriptive statistics documenting the extent of organizational ties between parties and groups in contemporary democracies. Third, we illustrate more advanced usage through a simple application. [R, abr.]
73.6330 HAYDUK, Ron, et al.—
Participatory Budgeting (PB) is a welcome democratic innovation because it promises to empower traditionally marginalized groups and create more equitable public spending. PB delegates public authority to neighborhood residents to propose and decide on projects to fund with tax dollars. Does PB achieve a form of empowered participatory governance? This article examines this question by focusing on the degree to which PB engages marginalized groups in two Bay Area cities, using survey and interview data. We find that marginalized groups do participate, periodically at rates equal to their proportion of the population, and such groups appear to occasionally benefit materially from winning projects, though to a lesser extent. Effective outreach methods that contribute to these outcomes are highlighted. However, overall findings show that white middle-aged, middle-class groups participate most. Moreover, PB funds have been scaled back in both cities, limiting benefits and their potential to achieve PB’s equity goals. [R, abr.]
73.6331 HEBENSTREIT, Jörg —
Recently, the concept of polarisation has experienced a considerable upturn and made its way into the public debate. As far as the German case goes, it has been argued that the electorate is becoming increasingly polarised and that a rift is running through society. The tendency is said to be particularly pronounced in the eastern part of the country, as can be deduced from the electoral successes of the Left Party and the AfD. This paper empirically tests this argument on the basis of ALLBUS data in the period since reunification. Using in particular the left-right self-placement and in addition three policy items connected with the GAL-TAN dimension as measures for ideological preferences, it appears that no conclusive evidence for this hypothesis can be found — neither in Eastern nor Western Germany. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 73.6992]
73.6332 HEERSINK, Boris ; JENKINS, Jeffery A. ; NAPOLIO, Nicholas G. —
We examine the composition, background, and voting behavior of Republican members of Congress from the ex-Confederate states in the 1952-1980 period — a time during which Southern GOP membership in Congress began to increase steadily. We find that this new generation of Southern Republicans were often born in the South, came from the private sector — where they previously worked in business like much of the non-Southern wing of the Republican Party — and had few meaningful prior connections to the Democratic Party. In terms of voting behavior, Southern Republicans behaved similarly to non-Southern Republicans — generally voting with their party, and more conservatively on most issues than the Southern Democrats they replaced. However, we find that Southern Republicans and Democrats voted alike in one important way: against civil rights legislation. [R, abr.]
73.6333 HEINISCH, Reinhard ; WERNER, Annika —
That parties fulfil their pre-election pledges once they are in government is a fundamental idea of many democracy models. This paper addresses the question of whether the government/opposition status of their party affects how much citizens want governments to fulfil their promises. We hypothesize that interest-driven, rational voters are more likely to prefer their own party to keep its promises and investigate whether this rationale is impacted by public opinion and expert views. The analysis is based on a survey experiment conducted in Australia and Austria. It finds that voters broadly adhere to the democratic principle of expecting pledge fulfilment but, at the same time, some take a rational approach to government promises. The opinions of the public and experts mitigate but do not change this effect. Another key finding is the significant difference in the preference for promise keeping versus promise breaking between government and opposition voters in the Austrian case, the country with the more heterogeneous and polarized political system. [R, abr.]
73.6334 HELD, Alexander —
Does highlighting socioeconomic policy considerations or mainstream parties’ government competence reduce support for populist radical right (PRR) parties? Such “defuse” messages may attract PRR voters without alienating mainstream parties’ core electorate and thus, have advantages over an accommodative strategy. This study tests four “defuse” messages in an original survey experiment on a sample of 1,786 likely PRR voters in the context of the 2017 German federal election. The findings show that potential PRR voters are hardly swayed by these messages. This result is in notable contrast to findings from prior experimental studies about the malleability of PRR support. Exploratory analyses suggest that some of these null findings may mask heterogeneities. [R, abr.]
73.6335 HELLMEIER, Sebastian ; VÜLLERS, Johannes —
Western Europe has recently experienced increasing protest mobilisation by right-wing populist movements. Although these movements are receiving increasing scholarly attention, systematic data on protest activities is limited. In this research note, original data is used to describe the protest activity of Germany’s Pegida movement across space and time and to explore the city-level determinants of protest mobilisation. The protest dataset records 373 events with more than 337,000 participants in major cities between 2014 and 2017. The data documents the involvement of right extremists during the protests and illustrates the movement’s nativist and anti-elitist orientation. The correlational analysis of the determinants of protest activity shows that protests are less likely in cities with a large foreign-born population and lower income levels. [R, abr.]
73.6336 HELMS, Ludger —
Political opposition has long been one of the most dramatically understudied elements of real-world politics in contemporary democratic and authoritarian regimes. The past decade or so has, however, witnessed an upsurge of new opposition research that begs for a major state-of-the-field review. Interestingly, recent scholarship has focused more on manifestations of opposition in authoritarian and hybrid than in democratic systems, which indicates a latent reconceptualization of political opposition (setting aside older distinctions between regime-loyal opposition and regime-challenging forms of resistance, dissidence and contestation). With a focus on party-based forms of opposition, which have been widely considered to mark the most effective form of opposition, this review article takes stock and highlights key issues for future research as well as some inherent obstacles to the emergence of a more integrated field of cross-regime opposition studies. [R]
73.6337 HERRE, Bastian —
Researchers have long studied how the ideology of political leaders affects policymaking and social welfare. The limited coverage of cross-country ideology datasets, however, has meant that researchers have mainly focused on Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries. This letter therefore presents the Global Leader Ideology dataset, which vastly expands the scope of previous datasets by classifying chief executives as leftist, centrist, rightist or non-ideological in 182 countries annually from 1945 or independence to 2020. The letter describes the dataset’s contents and coding, compares it to existing datasets, and illustrates its uses by exploring how the ideologies of political leaders differ around the world and over time. The letter thereby outlines a research agenda on the global causes of chief executives’ ideologies and their effects on policies and socio-economic outcomes. [R]
73.6338 HERRNSON, Paul S. ; STEWART, Charles, III —
The COVID-19 pandemic had the potential to wreak havoc on elections. Democracies initiated varied policies to minimize health risks to voters and election workers. This study assesses the impact of voting policies, personal exposure to COVID, and partisanship on voter behavior in the 2020 US general election. Using a comparative state-politics approach and new data, we demonstrate that exposure to COVID substantially influenced voter turnout, and election policies had a major effect on whether a voter cast a ballot by mail, early in-person, or in-person on Election Day. Unique circumstances, including the emergence of voting policies as a polarizing issue, also spawned a new partisan voting gap that is especially prominent among heavy news consumers. Compared to 2018, many more Democrats than Republicans abandoned Election Day voting in favor of mail voting. [R] [See Abstr. 73.6312]
73.6339 HERTEL-FERNANDEZ, Alexander ; PORTER, Ethan —
Attitudes toward social out-groups can be improved through “analogic perspective-taking,” whereby respondents are encouraged to use an analogy to take the perspective of the group. It is unclear, however, whether analogic perspective-taking can improve attitudes toward political organizations; how perspective-taking fares compared to the provision of narrative alone; and the limits of the attitude changes it creates. We report results from an experiment that tested analogic perspective-taking exercises about members of teachers’ unions. While perspective-taking improves attitudes toward unions, union members, and willingness to pay more in education taxes, it also increases support for some antiunion policies. A second study suggests that the bidirectional policy effects are attributable to subjects’ difficulty distinguishing pro- from antiunion policies. [R, abr.]
73.6340 HIMMELROOS, Staffan ; SCHOULTZ, Åsa von —
This study examines political media consumption among non-resident citizens, and whether following politics in traditional and social media in their country of residence and origin has a mobilizing effect on voting in origincountry elections. The topic is inspired by the trend towards increased enfranchisement of external citizens, improved methods for participation from abroad, and the transformation of the media landscape with enhanced possibilities for external voters to follow politics in their country of origin. Based on a survey directed towards a stratified random sample of Finnish external citizens in 15 countries, we find that politically oriented media consumption in the country of origin substantially increases the likelihood of participating in origin-country elections and that this effect holds for traditional media channels as well as for social media. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 73.6536]
73.6341 HIROSE, Kentaro ; KIM Hae ; KOHNO, Masaru —
This paper highlights the concept of dignity as the cornerstone that justifies hate speech regulations in democratic societies. In political theory and constitutional law, the primacy of dignity as the moral and legislative justification for regulating hate speech has already been addressed by dignitarianism, especially in the course of debate with free speech advocates. We aim to augment this important claim in the normative literature with empirical data. Specifically, based on our survey conducted in Japan, where its first national anti-hate speech law had only recently been enacted and ordinary citizens were thus less predisposed of the debate, we show that citizens’ concerns about the dignity of a targeted victim lead them to support regulations. [R, abr.]
73.6342 HJERMITSLEV, Ida B. ; JOHNSTON, Christopher D. —
Daily cognitive fatigue is widespread, yet we are still learning about its influence on political behavior. Existing research suggests fatigue will reduce consumption of politics at the margin. Moreover, when fatigued individuals do engage with political material, they should be more likely to choose content and decision rules that require minimal effort. We find mixed empirical evidence for these claims. In observational data, we find a negative relationship between fatigue and engagement, on average, but the coefficients are typically small and statistically insignificant and we find substantial variation across different measures of fatigue. In three experiments, we find mixed evidence that manipulated fatigue reduces the demand for political content over sports and other non-political entertainment. In a fourth experiment, we find no evidence that manipulated fatigue shapes heuristic versus systematic processing. [R, abr.]
73.6343 HOELLERBAUER, Simon —
Civil society organizations (CSOs) can facilitate collective action. This makes understanding what shapes whether people are likely to engage with CSOs critically important. This paper argues that whether an organization is perceived as congruent — similar to an individual in values — is a key determinant of whether individuals will engage with it. I use a conjoint survey experiment to test how organizational attributes signaling congruence influence respondents’ willingness to attend a hypothetical organization’s meetings. I find that individuals are more likely to choose organizations that are more likely to be congruent with them, except when it comes to funding. These findings imply that an individual’s level of comfort with a CSO matters for engagement; thus, CSOs need to consider how they match to their publics when reaching out to potential joiners. Furthermore, donors seeking to support CSOs need to pay attention to their impact on perceptions of congruence. [R]
73.6344 HÖGSTRÖM, John ; LIDÉN, Gustav —
According to partisan theory, variations in policy choices and outputs originate from the party composition of the government studied. In this study, we take a novel approach to address such assumptions by linking changes in municipal taxes with local government changes. We also add a baseline scenario in which we examine whether the composition of the local government affects tax levels. Drawing on a dataset that contains official Swedish statistics from 1994 to 2018, we find convincing support for the partisan effect. Tax levels are higher under left-wing rule, and more specifically, tax cuts particularly occur when left-wing governments are replaced by right-wing ones. These results do not vanish when controls are accounted for, while it can be particularly noticed that the condition of the municipal economy influences partisan ambitions. [R, abr.]
73.6345 HOLT, Jacob —
Several theories have been created to explain party unity in Congress, but previous studies have generally assumed the same factors affect party unity for both parties. Given the differences between the two parties (the ideological heterogeneity of their electoral coalitions, how the party’s electoral coalitions view partisanship, etc.), this assumption may limit our understanding of the sources of party unity. I test three theories of party unity (cartel theory, Conditional Party Government, and Strategic Party Government) on separate panels for the two parties. I find cartel theory helps explain party unity for both parties, but, unlike what has previously been argued, I find this is not entirely due to Reed’s Rules. I further find Conditional Party Government better explains party unity for the Republicans, while Strategic Party Government better explains party unity for the Democrats. [R, abr.]
73.6346 HOLTHAUS, Leonie —
This article conceives of climate activists as emotion entrepreneurs to explain the emergence of particular emotional responses to climate change. Among these emotional responses is eco-grief or grief felt because of experienced or anticipated ecological losses. I elaborate on the concept of the emotion entrepreneur and theorize the emergence of eco-grief on the basis of a practice theoretical and Bourdieusian approach. I suggest that activists possessing cultural capital are well positioned to introduce new feelings and identify three mechanisms that contribute to explanations of the emergence and growing importance of eco-grief. Objectivation is about the most often reflexive practice of giving names to emotions to turn them into ontological entities. Cultivation is about the creation of social spaces for the experience and regulation of eco-grief among activists. Diffusion is about emotional contagion, the creation of emotional vocabularies, and the spread of activist feeling rules. [R, abr.]
73.6347 HOMOLA, Jonathan, et al.—
Growing attitudinal and affective differences across party lines and increasing social polarization are often attributed to the strengthening of partisanship as a social identity. Scholars have paid less attention to personal preferences as a contributor to these phenomena. Our focus is on how citizens’ policy beliefs — their operational ideologies — are associated with their views of partisan groups. We examine our perspective with two studies. In the first, we find that the attribution of ideologically extreme political views to an individual’s peer significantly reduces interest in interpersonal interaction but find limited evidence that partisan group membership alone induces social polarization. In the second, we show that citizens’ policy views are strongly associated with their perceptions of their own partisan group as well as their counterpartisans. Together, our results have important implications for understanding the consequences of increased polarization and partisan antipathy in contemporary politics. [R]
73.6348 HOPKINS, Daniel J. ; SCHWARZ, Susanne ; CHAINANI, Anjali —
In the US, voter turnout in many subnational elections is concerningly low. Campaigns and organizations have tested various interventions to increase turnout, but many are resource intensive and not feasible for local governments to implement equitably at scale. Here, we report a preregistered experiment with 1 million Philadelphia registered voters that is one such feasible intervention. Partnering with city officials, we sent postcards to some registrants before and after the spring 2019 municipal primary and before the November election, with the postprimary postcards thanking recipients for voting or saying “sorry we missed you.” [R, abr.]
73.6349 HORN, Alexander ; JENSEN, Carsten —
Policy signals are often conceived of as positions on an ideological scale. However, apart from the position — considered here as the policy objective — the policy instrument and the concreteness of the instrument must also be taken into consideration. In the article, a new conceptualisation of policy signals is developed, which integrates policy objectives, policy instruments and how concrete these are. Drawing on issue competition research, a set of expectations is advanced about the importance of actors’ control over outcomes for positional concreteness. Then, policy signals are looked at in the unmediated context of Danish parties’ Facebook posts ahead of the 2019 national election. Based on all textual and audio-visual posts in the year before the election, it is found that the levels of positional concreteness are generally high. Yet — in line with expectations — positional concreteness depends on parties’ incumbency status and the policy field. [R]
73.6350 HOVIK, Sissel ; STIGEN, Inger Marie —
Although local governments establish various arrangements to stimulate citizen participation, knowledge about what happens with citizens’ proposals after participation is weak. To gain impact, citizen initiatives must be handled through the decision-making process. This article examines the dynamics of such handling of input from citizen participation in three different cases linked to an area-based initiative in Oslo, Norway. The study shows that different actors can play a role as boundary spanners handling citizen proposals, and how this crucial handling varies with the structural and procedural linkages between the participatory spaces and the formal decision-making processes. The study reveals a ‘complexity paradox’; in cases where responsibility is shared among different sectors and levels of government, each unit represents a veto point that can hinder citizen impact, but also an entrance that can enable such impact. [R]
73.6351 HUBER, Daniela ; PISCIOTTA, Barbara —
Democratic backsliding has become a global reality which in the past decade has curiously occurred together with populism and the polarisation of societies. How do these phenomena interact? Through a comparative study of two iconic cases of democratisation and democratic backsliding from different world regions, Hungary and Tunisia, we find that polarisation — typically instrumentalized by populists along the socio-cultural axis — harms social trust, setting a context in which societies accept democratic backsliding. Based on a most-different-systems design, our findings confirm the causal link between populism and democratic backsliding and represent a starting point for further analysis focused on the effects of the socio-cultural dimension on institutional change. [R]
73.6352 HUBER, Robert A. ; JANKOWSKI, Michael ; JUEN, Christina-Marie —
How are parties’ ideological positions and levels of populism connected? Existing research either advocates for a U-shaped relationship between parties’ left-right position and their degree of populism or uses specific dimensions of a two-dimensional policy space to describe right-wing populist parties. We provide an integrated perspective to describe parties’ degree of populism by arguing that populism is higher when parties put strong emphasis on a collectivist host ideology. This has implications on how these ideologies relate to the two-dimensional policy space. Combined with salience of policy dimensions, such a perspective allows for a better understanding of the occurrence of populism among right- and leftwing populist parties. Using expert survey data on parties in Europe, we find strong and robust empirical support for the expected patterns. [R]
73.6353 HUIJSMANS, Twan —
Inhabitants of rural and peripheral areas in advanced democracies display higher levels of place resentment. They feel that their area is ignored by political elites, does not get its fair share of resources, and its values are disregarded by inhabitants of other areas. Place resentment is recognized in the literature as perceptions of socioeconomic, cultural and political inequalities. Existing quantitative work studied associations with objective local socioeconomic deprivation but not with cultural and political context characteristics. Based on geo-coded survey data from the Netherlands, this study shows that place resentment is related to spatial inequalities in unemployment and knowledge economy size, but also to linguistic distance between local dialect and Standard Dutch, and proximity to living places of national MPs. Adequately understanding place resentment thus requires not only studying socioeconomic local contexts, but also a deeper understanding of the role of cultural differences and inequalities in political representation between places. [R]
73.6354 HWANG, Jackelyn ; McDANIEL, Tyler W. —
The literature on the persistence of racial residential segregation in the United States has made significant progress by moving beyond traditional explanations — socioeconomic differences, preferences, and discrimination — to focus on the complex ways in which these factors interact with the multistage process of residential sorting. Dramatic changes in metropolitan landscapes over the past two decades, however, demand an expanded theoretical framework that can account for stability and change. In this article, we review research on contemporary urban changes that offers insights for explaining segregation’s persistence amid widespread change. We identify three broad categories of mechanisms that exacerbate inequities by race and class in residential sorting processes: resource inequality, hierarchy endurance, and consolidated power. [R, abr.]
73.6355 IGNAZI, Piero —
In recent years, academic literature has stressed the declining importance of social class and religion as determinants of vote. In particular, many scholars have found that the working-class vote is no longer mostly addressed to socialist parties, whereas religious people still massively support confessional and conservative parties. This article explores the actual resilience of the two cleavages with particular attention to the relationship between religion and socialist parties. Our analysis, based on European Social Survey (ESS) data covering 13 West European countries in the period 2002–2014, proves that ‘a-religiosity’ — negative attitudes towards religion — has overcome social class as the determinant of a socialist vote, thanks to the emergence of a divisive ethical–moral agenda. [R, abr.]
73.6356 IMRE, Michael —
Do voters correctly perceive left-right positions of political parties? This question received considerable attention in the literature in the past decades. Previous research has shown that most voters have somewhat ‘correct’ perceptions of where parties are located on a left-right dimension, but that both individual and party level factors influence how much those perceptions deviate from the real positions. This paper adds to this literature, relaxing the unitary actor assumption and introducing heterogeneity to the analysis. Using data from elite surveys to measure intraparty preference heterogeneity on two dimensions, I demonstrate that voters’ misperceptions of party positions strongly increase the more heterogeneous the positions of party elites are on the economic dimension, but not on the sociocultural dimension, and that the effect size depends on how salient this dimension is for the party. The findings have implications for future research on mass-elite linkages, representation, as well as voting behavior. [R]
73.6357 JACOB, Marc S. —
Adequately financed branches contribute to the integration of regional interests into statewide parties. Yet, we have limited knowledge about the determinants of branches’ varying income levels in federal contexts. To address this shortage, this article elucidates why branches receive donations from citizens and businesses to different degrees. I hypothesise that party competition at the state level, the difference in regional economic performance and parties’ historical legacies can account for the level of branches’ donation revenue. Analysing German statewide party branches’ income from 2009 to 2017, this study finds support for the facilitating impact of state and federal electoral contests on donation levels. Regional economic disparities, by contrast, only marginally affect donation revenues. At the same time, parties’ path-dependent developments help explain asymmetries in average revenue levels between western and eastern branches. [R, abr.]
73.6358 JACOBY, Tim —
In this paper, four elements of statehood will be used to assess the Islamic State’s (IS’s) June 2014 claim of sovereignty, thereby raising important questions over its classification as a “non”-state armed actor. As such, it seeks to contribute to a small, but growing, literature which attempts to look beyond IS’s virulent bellicosity and to consider the political institutions it established on their own terms — not as simply an extension of its prodigious messianic and eschatological diatribe or as an interstitial response to the failures of the Asad and Maliki regimes. In other words, rather than adding to the voluminous literature on the extent to which Is might be regarded an Islamic State, this paper considers to what degree it might have constituted an Islamic State. [R]
73.6360 JAKOBSON, Mari-Liis ; UMPIERREZ DE REGUERO, Sebastián ; YENER-RODERBURG, Inci Öykü —
The emerging debate on transnational populism has thus far mainly focused on cases, which have remained relatively inconsequential due to the weak institutionalisation of the political transnationalism arena. By bringing in a better-structured arena of migrant transnationalism, this paper introduces populist political parties mobilising transnational migrants to the debate and explores the resulting phenomenon of homeland populism. The paper investigates three populist parties that operate transnationally — Ecuadorian APAIS in Spain, Turkish AKP in Germany and Estonian EKRE in Finland. The analysis demonstrates that the phenomenon of homeland populism shares several distinct features despite the ideological, geographic, cultural and migratory differences between the three cases. The cases also sport differences: while the construction of ‘the people’ depends on migratory context, the construction of ‘the antagonist’ is more related to the ideational variations of populism.[R, abr.]
73.6361 JEANNET, Anne-Marie ; HEIDLAND, Tobias ; RUHS, Martin —
Political trust matters for citizens’ policy preferences but existing research has not fully understood how this effect depends on policy design. To advance this research area, we theorise that policy controls that limit or condition policy provision can function as safeguards against uncertainty, thereby compensating for a person’s lack of trust in generating support. Focusing on public preferences for asylum and refugee policy, we conduct an original conjoint experiment in eight European countries. We find that individuals with lower levels of trust in European political institutions are less supportive of policies providing unlimited or unconditional protection and more supportive of restrictive policies. We also show that policy design features such as limits and conditions can mitigate perceived uncertainty for individuals who are less trusting in European political institutions. [R, abr.]
73.6362 JENSEN, Jeffrey L. ; PARDELLI, Giuliana ; TIMMONS, Jeffrey F. —
When do elites support the expansion of the state’s ability to tax? Despite the disproportionate influence that elites are theorized to exert on politics, answers to this question remain elusive. We argue that elites will support increased taxation, including on themselves, when they believe greater fiscal capacity will yield collective goods that further their interests, they have political control, and they expect this control to persist into the future. We test our argument by measuring changes in state taxation using an annual panel of Southern slave states between 1840 and 1860. Our strategy exploits both institutional differences across these states in the de jure political control of the slave-owning elite and rising international demand for Southern cash crops. [R, abr.]
73.6363 JI Ruan ; PENG Wang —
This article presents a qualitative empirical study of elite collusion and its influence on village elections and rural land development in China. Drawing on ethnographic data collected from two Chinese villages, it investigates how village cadres collude with other rural elites, using bribery, giftgiving and lavish banquets, to establish reciprocal ties with township officials and other public officials. Meanwhile, the officials make use of formal organizations to corruptly obtain profits and form alliances with village elites. The article examines how rural elites, especially village cadres, use this collusion to profit from the misuse of villagers’ collectively owned assets, the manipulation of village elections and the suppression of anti-corruption protests. [R, abr.]
73.6364 JOHNSTON, Richard —
This article brings three decades of broadly consistent survey data on survey respondents’ feelings about the parties as evidence of affective polarization. It also presents evidence about policy differences among the parties and makes an explicit link between elite and mass data with multilevel modelling. The article shows that affective polarization is real and also demonstrates its connection to the ideological landscape. But it also shows that conceptual categories originating in the United States must be adapted to Canada’s multiparty system and to the continuing contrasts between Quebec and the rest of Canada. It suggests that accounts of Canada’s twentieth-century party system may not apply to the twenty-first century. [R]
73.6365 JOHNSTON, Samuel A. T. ; SPRONG, Stefanie —
Western European politics has experienced considerable change since the 1980s, with the emergence of new parties and immigration’s politicisation. However, no studies have examined Green party discussions of immigration, or their interaction with radical-right parties. We hypothesise that increases in the radical right’s vote share, and the saliency they attach to immigration, will incentivise Greens to discuss immigration more. We also examine an alternative explanation that how salient immigration is for left- and right-wing parties will affect immigration’s saliency for Greens. We test this by applying structural topic models to parliamentary speeches in the Dutch Tweede Kamer for 2002-2019. [R, abr.]
73.6366 JONES, Philip Edward —
Members of different social groups often hold distinctive political attitudes. Research shows substantial divides based on characteristics like religion, race, gender, and sexuality, suggesting a straightforward identity-to-politics link. But making that link requires some knowledge and understanding of politics, which not everyone has. As a result, I show, political awareness often moderates the link between social identity and political views. Among the least engaged, identity is only weakly related to politics, and the differences between groups are muted. As awareness increases, the connection between group membership and political attitudes tightens, and the magnitude of identity gaps grows. The substantive impact of awareness varies across groups, and there are notable exceptions to these findings. In general though, the identity-to-politics link — and thus many of the divisions attributed to demographic characteristics — is conditional on political awareness. [R]
73.6367 JOSEPH, Justin ; KARACKATTU, Joe Thomas —
The environmental sector is an interesting realm in Chinese politics to observe factors such as the contributions of new media activism in bottomup communication and decision-making processes, especially during the 40 years of reform and opening up. Top-down efforts to curb environmental issues are primarily to address increasing pubic discomfort due to pollution and related problems. However, environmental movements are increasingly visible in China despite their application of stability maintenance mechanisms such as Environmental Police. It is therefore noteworthy to deeply analyse the factors that contribute to the increasing scale of movements in the country. This study examines the role of new media activism (occurring due to the public’s interactions through WeChat, Weibo, QQ, etc.) in shaping the trajectory of environmental movements in China. How are these avenues supporting alternative communication channels outside the mainstream policy making apparatus? Is the government willing to incorporate the interests developed in these channels to policymaking realms? [R, abr.]
73.6368 KADHUM, Oula —
While emigration and population displacements have long been a feature of Iraqi history, this article argues that the 2003 Anglo-American intervention in Iraq and its legacy has contributed to the gradual disappearance of many non-Muslim Iraqi minorities from Iraq. Though the legacy of 2003 can be attributed to a confluence of domestic and geopolitical factors, it is argued here that the 2003 intervention set in motion a process of nationdestroying instead of nation-building, as Iraqi nationhood was divided along primordial lines. Caught between competing ethnic and sectarian nationalisms, Iraqi non-Muslim minorities became targets in the quest for territorial gain and political power heralding an unprecedented and steady level of emigration. This has changed the ethnic and religious demographic of Iraq, the identity of the Iraqi nation-state, as well as fragmented Iraq’s multiple ethnic and religious nations both inside and outside the country. [R, abr.]
73.6369 KALATZI PANTERA, Dafni ; BÖHMELT, Tobias ; BAKAKI, Zorzeta —
Natural disasters can affect individuals’ views about the environment, especially when these events are extreme and experienced by people directly (locally). In one of the first comprehensive and systematic attempts, we explore whether a similar relationship exists transnationally — a crossborder effect stemming from environmental disasters abroad on public opinion ‘at home’. Spatial analyses present robust evidence that people’s environmental salience attitudes are substantially driven by disaster-related deaths in nearby countries. It follows that environmental disasters cannot be treated as isolated incidents within state borders, but they rather have far-reaching, transnational consequences on public opinion and, potentially, policy. Accordingly, this research adds to our understanding of environmental politics, public opinion, natural disasters and diffusion effects. [R]
73.6370 KAMINÌSKI, Paweł —
This article studies contacts between interest groups and political parties. Existing research suggests that times of close and formal cooperation between parties and groups in Western Europe are over as the contacts have become more pragmatic and sometimes spontaneous. Studies usually point to ideological proximity and resource exchange as the main factors behind contacts, however, focusing mainly on parties’ power and ideological position. Here, by drawing on data from Poland, Slovenia, and Lithuania, we focus on young democracies from Eastern Europe by taking into account interest groups’ resources, their typology, and the system of interest groups’ representation. The article shows that financial resources are the main factor behind seeking contacts with the large number of political parties. [R]
73.6371 KARPICH, Yulia —
Existing studies leave open many questions about the link between religiosity and the conservative political attitudes of Orthodox believers in Russia. This article employs qualitative research to highlight the role of religiosity in individual political choice. The empirical material was collected during interviews with believers in Lipetsk Oblast in 2019-2020. The results of the study revealed three types of conservative choice, depending on an individual’s level of religiosity. Although religious beliefs and practices play different roles at different levels of religiosity, they are not crucial to believers’ political choices. [R] [See Abstr. 73.6396]
73.6372 KARPOVICH, O. ; TRAVKINA, N. —
Since the start of 202, the United States of America has been swept by waves of massive domestic political upheavals, compounded by the threat of an economic crisis — the second in just three years. These waves have pushed into the background and obscured the human-made causes of these upheavals, which stem from the fatal mistakes ADN miscalculations of the US political elite. [R]
73.6373 KAYSER, Mark A. ; ORLOWSKI, Matthias ; REHMERT, Jochen —
Policy in coalition governments (1) depends on negotiations between parties that (2) continue between elections. No extant means of predicting policy — bargaining power indices, vote shares, seat shares, polling, veto players or measures of electoral competitiveness — recognizes both of these facts. We conceptualize, estimate and validate the first dynamic measure of parties’ bargaining leverage intended to predict policy and politics. We argue that those parties with the greatest leverage in policy negotiations are those with the highest probability of participating in an alternative government, were one to form. Combining a large set of political polls and an empirical coalition formation model developed with out-ofsample testing, we estimate coalition inclusion probabilities for parties in a sample of 21 parliamentary democracies at a monthly frequency over four decades. [R, abr.]
73.6374 KEFFORD, Glenn, et al.—
We present one of the very first cross-national analyses of data-driven campaigning by political parties. Drawing on empirical research conducted by experts in six advanced democracies, we show that the data-driven campaign practices seen to threaten democracy are often not manifest in party campaigns. Instead, we see a set of practices that build on pre-existing techniques and which are far less sophisticated than is often assumed. Indeed, we present evidence that most political parties lack the capacity to execute the hyper-intensive practices often associated with data-driven campaigning. Hence, while there is reason to remain alert to the challenges data-driven campaigning produces for democratic norms, we argue that this practice is not inherently disruptive, but rather exemplifies the evolving nature of political campaigning in the 21st c. [R, abr.]
73.6375 KIKUTA, Kyosuke ; UESUGI, Mamoru —
We examine whether politically irrelevant events can cause conflicts, by analyzing the effects of professional football games in Europe on protests in Africa — an unintended spillover across the continents. By expanding psychological theories, we argue that the outcomes of the football games in Europe can affect African people’s subjective evaluation of domestic politicians, which in turn can trigger protests. By exploiting as-if random variation in the results of 15,102 close football games conditional on betting odds, we find that compared to draw games, close losses of African players’ teams increase peaceful protests in their original countries while not changing the likelihood of riots or armed conflicts. The effect is particularly large for non-ethnic protests targeted at a central government. Close losses also temporarily decrease people’s trust in their country’s leader. By contrast, close victories do not have equivalent or compensating effects on protests or public opinion. [R, abr.]
73.6376 KIM-LEFFINGWELL, Sanghoon —
How does an authoritarian past shape voters’ left-right orientation? Recent studies investigate “anti-dictator bias” in political ideology, where citizens in a former right-wing (left-wing) dictatorship may display a leftist (rightist) bias in their ideological self-identification. I provide evidence for a “prodictator bias” where citizens hold ideological positions close to those of the dictator, depending on their experiences prior to transition. In countries with high economic growth under dictatorship and without violent ruling party ouster, authoritarian successors could continue mobilizing the popular base and invoke positive sentiment on the past in democratic elections. Such positive sentiment can facilitate individual ideological orientation close to the ideological label of the former dictatorship. I test this hypothesis by combining individual- and country-level data covering 1985 to 2018 from 48 countries. [R, abr.]
73.6377 KINTZ, Melanie —
This paper looks at East German representation in parliamentary leadership positions. It finds East Germans remain underrepresented in these positions, especially outside of The Left. It explores three explanatory approaches: (1) there are not enough East Germans in the recruitment pool, (2) East German members lack the desired qualifications and (3) the leadership recruitment process is biased against East Germans. Using statistical analysis based on a biographical dataset including all MPs from the 13th to the 18th legislative period, it finds that both low East German membership in the Bundestag and the existence of a bias lead to underrepresentation of East Germans in those positions. While The Left tries to strongly represent East German interests by recruiting them into leadership positions, East Germans’ access to these positions in all other party parliamentary groups remains low. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 73.6992]
73.6378 KITAGAWA, Risa —
How does transitional justice affect trust in government? Political trust is central to peaceful conflict resolution, but less is known about the ability of different transitional justice efforts to build confidence in government after war. Using survey-experimental evidence from post-conflict Guatemala, I compare how three commonly deployed justice policies (trials, truth commissions, and reparations) and political rhetoric accompanying them affect citizen attitudes toward government. Exposure to information about a trial or reparations program, which convey costly signals, led to significantly higher levels of political trust and perceived political legitimacy, when compared to the truth commission treatment. Further, a moral rhetoric emphasizing the normative claims of war victims was significantly more effective than either an instrumental rhetoric emphasizing institutional benefits or the absence of justification, regardless of policy content. [R, abr.]
73.6379 KNAPP, Emma R. ; SMITH, Brianna A. ; MOTTA, Matthew P. —
The American reaction to the COVID-19 pandemic is polarized, with conservatives often less willing to engage in risk-mitigation strategies such as mask-wearing and vaccination. COVID-19 narratives are also polarized, as some conservative elites focus on the economy over public health. In this registered report, we test whether combining economic and public health messages can persuade individuals to increase support for COVID-19 risk mitigation. We present preliminary evidence that the combination of messages is complementary, rather than competing or polarizing. When given a message emphasizing COVID-19’s negative health and economic effects in a pilot study, conservatives increased their support for a broad range of risk-mitigation strategies, while liberals maintained high levels of support. A preregistered larger-n follow-up study, however, failed to replicate this effect. While complementary frames may be a promising way to persuade voters on some issues, they may also struggle to overcome high levels of existing polarization. [R]
73.6380 KNOESTER, Chris ; KNOESTER, Matthew —
Using October, 2016 data from a nationally representative sample of US adults (N = 1,461), this study considers the extent to which social structure and culture worked together to activate affinities for Donald Trump. For our analyses, we used multiple regressions and first focused on the extent to which social structural locations (e.g., gender, race/ethnicity, age, education, rurality) were associated with a willingness to trust Trump and report intentions to vote for him. Then, we considered partisanship affiliations. Finally, we looked at the extent to which hegemonically masculine, racial/ethnic and nativist, and authorities on truth values helped to further establish affinities for Trump. Findings indeed revealed that cultural value contestations were central to establishing affinities for Trump. Such beliefs even remained linked to intentions to vote for Trump after accounting for adults’ trust in him. [R]
73.6381 KOKKONEN, Andrej ; LINDE, Jonas —
Earlier research has shown a strong connection between anti-immigration attitudes and political trust in Western Europe. In this research note, we examine if nativists’ low levels of specific political support translate into a more general scepticism about democracy as a system of government. Using comparative data from the European Social Survey (ESS) and the European Values Study (EVS), we investigate the relationship between nativist attitudes and several indicators of principled, or diffuse, support for democracy. The findings testify to a nativist divide in diffuse political support. We find a systematic and significant difference in support for democracy between strong nativists and other citizens. West European nativists are less likely than other citizens to view their country as democratic. They also tend to perceive living in a democracy as less important than people with a more positive outlook on immigrants. Moreover, and maybe more worrying, nativists express lower levels support for democracy in relation to non-democratic regime alternatives, that is, they are less likely to be “principled” democrats. [R, abr.]
73.6382 KÖNIG, Jasmin Sarah ; SWALVE, Tilko —
In a rising number of countries, populist parties participate in coalition governments. While there exists a consensus that populism is incompatible with core tenets of liberal democracy on a conceptual level, we know much less about whether or not the participation of populist parties in government constitutes a threat to liberal democracy in practice. We study the impact of populist parties in coalition governments using a novel dataset of more than 2000 laws that were under review at the Austrian Constitutional Court between 1980 and 2021. We provide evidence that the court did not find laws passed by governments that included a populist party unconstitutional more often than those passed by non-populist governments. Our findings indicate that the Austrian Freedom Party did moderate its policy while in office. [R, abr.]
73.6383 KONSTANTINIDIS, Nikitas ; JURADO, Ignacio ; DINAS, Elias —
Recent literature argues that with ever-increasing levels of supranational constraints governments have less ‘room to manoeuvre’; therefore, voters will place less weight on policy outcomes in their voting decisions. The question that remains less explored is how voters fill this accountability gap. We argue that, in this context, voters may move away from outcome- to input-oriented voting. Fulfilling their promises becomes less vital for incumbents as long as they exhibit effort to overturn an unpopular policy framework. We test this argument against a survey experiment conducted in the run-up to the September 2015 election in Greece, where we find a positive impact of the incumbent’s exerted effort to challenge the status quo of austerity on vote intention for SYRIZA — the senior coalition government partner at the time — despite the failed outcome of the government’s bailout negotiations. [R]
73.6384 KORTE, Karl-Rudolf —
Leadership and decision-making in times of crisis permanence and the accompanying loss of certainty would already be a major challenge for established coalition formats. For the current coalition, these are incomparably greater. The four types of transformative governance outlined in this essay indicate how the management in transformation can succeed. [R]
73.6385 KOUBA, Karel ; DOSEK, Tomas —
Women politicians face two distinct glass ceilings — when becoming candidates and when turning these candidacies into elected offices. While existing research posits important explanatory accounts of both these processes, both stages are often studied separately when the determinants of women’s descriptive representation are analyzed. This generates possible inferential issues, because one stage conditions the other and individual variables might pull in opposing directions in both stages. Drawing on a novel data set of mayoral elections in almost 10,000 municipalities across 15 Latin American countries, we build on existing research to identify the distinct components of glass ceilings at both stages, propose a methodological solution to this problem, illustrate how certain variables have different effects in each stage, and draw implications for theory building in the research on women’s descriptive representation. [R]
73.6386 KOUBA, Karel ; PUMR, Jan —
Despite theoretical arguments suggesting the strong effects of presidential term limits and re-election on democracy, there is surprisingly little empirical evidence to evaluate them. We test both the effect on democracy of the existence of a consecutive re-election rule and of reforms introducing it for incumbent presidents. Using evidence from Latin American countries between 1945 and 2018, we test their relationship to both vertical and horizontal accountability. A synthetic control method is employed to account for the effect of term-limit reforms, and time-series cross-section models for modelling the association with the re-election rule. Both vertical and horizontal accountability as well as the quality of democracy are eroded by term-limit evasion reforms in most countries and strengthened in none between 1990 and 2018. Allowing presidents to run for re-election — relative to term-limited ones — is consistently associated with weak democratic outcomes. [R]
73.6387 KRAFT, Patrick ; DOLAN, Kathleen —
Recent years have seen an unprecedented number of women candidates running for public office. Does the resulting potential for greater gender equality in political representation have downstream effects on individuallevel political attitudes, particularly among women voters? Given the partisan imbalance in women’s candidacies, do Republican and Democratic voters experience the growing gender parity in political representation differently? We explore these questions by employing a survey experiment in the 2018 Cooperative Election Study (CES) that manipulates the perceived trajectory of women’s representation in politics. Our results suggest that priming future optimism as compared to pessimism in women’s representation has little overall effect on the gender gap in political efficacy and interest, but that party affiliation can be a moderator in this context. We discuss the broader implications of our findings for women’s engagement in politics. [R]
73.6388 KRISHNARAJAN, Suthan ; DOUCETTE, Jonathan ; ANDERSEN, David —
Do economic experiences early in life affect regime support later in life? Effects of recent economic performance on regime support are extensively studied, but lasting effects of individual-level economic experiences across the lifespan remain unexplored. We argue that in democracies and autocracies alike, economic experiences in early adulthood (that is, age eighteen to twenty-eight) are wired into people’s memories and become important cues for their democratic support later in life. Having lived in a well-performing economy in a democracy increases democratic support throughout most of people’s lives, whereas having lived in a well-performing economy in an autocracy decreases democratic support throughout most of people’s lives. Using extensive survey data on support for democracy covering ninety-seven countries from 1994 to 2015, we find support for these propositions, demonstrating that economic experiences in early adulthood, conditional on the regime in place at the time, have strong, robust and lasting effects on democratic support. [R]
73.6389 KUSTOV, Alexander —
Why do politicians and policymakers not prioritize pro-immigration reforms, even when public opinion on the issue is positive? This research note examines one previously overlooked explanation related to the systematically greater importance of immigration as a political issue among those who oppose it relative to those who support it. To provide a comprehensive empirical assessment of how personal immigration issue importance is related to policy preferences, I use the best available crossnational and longitudinal surveys from multiple immigrant-receiving contexts. I find that compared to pro-immigration voters, anti-immigration voters feel stronger about the issue and are more likely to consider it as both personally and nationally important. This finding holds across virtually all observed countries, years, and alternative survey measures of immigration preferences and their importance. [R, abr.]
73.6390 KUSTOV, Alexander —
Do significant pro-immigration reforms — that open legal pathways for labor and family immigration — increase populist voting? Despite the common assumption that such reforms would lead to counter-productive voter backlash informed by the literature on immigrant group threat, the extent to which immigration policy itself influences voters has been unclear. To address this question, this paper estimates the impact of immigration policies on (right-wing) populist voting and immigration attitudes by exploiting the timing of major changes to immigration legislation in a new dataset linking the best available public opinion and policy data across the last 40 years in 24 European countries. My analysis shows that while the absolute levels of immigration policy openness are associated with slightly higher populist voting across countries in a naive cross-sectional analysis, proimmigration (or anti-immigration) policy changes do not affect populist voting or immigration concerns within countries. [R, abr.]
73.6391 KUZMINA, Yulia —
Between August 2018 and January 2021, the Shiyes railway station in the Arkhangelsk region of Russia became the site of numerous protests against the construction of a landfill. At the core of the mobilisation was a protest camp near the construction site, where activists confronted the police and security guards. Through an analysis of self-made online narratives on the protest camp, this paper explores the framing strategies of the camp’s daily routine and significant events. Paper demonstrates the incorporation of traditionalism as an ideological resource in the narratives on gender, spirituality, militarism, geographic identity, and postcolonialism. [R] [See Abstr. 73.6396]
73.6392 KYRIACOU, Andreas P. —
This article marshals empirical evidence from a cross-section of up to 87 countries to consider the impact of clientelism on fiscal redistribution in the form of direct taxes and public transfers. Clientelism may directly undermine fiscal redistribution towards poorer individuals because their political support is cheaper to buy, political patrons will limit redistribution to keep clients dependent and, moreover, will eschew fiscal policies that target broad categories of citizens based on explicit criteria, and favor instead private benefits that they can disburse to individual clients with a relatively high degree of discretion. The empirical analysis controls for a range of potentially confounding covariates, explores various transmission channels and accounts for the real possibility that more extensive redistributive programs may undermine the strength of clientelism. [R, abr.]
73.6393 LACATUS, Corina ; MEIBAUER, Gustav —
How do right-wing-populist incumbents navigate rhetorical strategic choices when they seek to manage external crises? Relevant literature has paid increasing attention to the role of ‘crisis’ in boosting the electoral success of right-wing populist candidates. We know a lot less about the rhetorical strategies used by right-wing populist incumbents seeking reelection. We draw on literatures on populism, crisis management and political rhetoric to conceptualize the rhetorical strategic choices of right-wing populist incumbents in times of crisis. We propose a framework for the choice of rhetorical strategy available to right-wing populist incumbents and illustrate it with a qualitative content analysis of Trump’s tweets and White House press briefings during the first months of the COVID-19 pandemic. We find limited rhetorical adaptation to crisis and high degrees of continuity with previous rhetoric grounded in right-wing populism. [R, abr.]
73.6394 LANCIEN, Anne ; IHADDADENE, Florence —
The League of Education is one of the most important French education confederations, with about 1.5 million members. Over the course of its 150 years of existence, it has been through many economic, ideological, and governance crises. But these crises have multiplied. The organization faces financial difficulties, a decrease in membership, a grassroots distrust of management and difficulty in ideologically positioning itself. This article draws from sociology and political science research about civic service policy within the League of Education and the transformations carried out by the organization under the French Fifth Republic. The authors deliver an analysis of the League of Education in light of new relations between the State and the associations, and considering transformations specific to the League of Education, its identity, its governance and its structure. The article illustrates why this crisis tends to last and analyses the resources mobilized by the League to overcome them. [R]
73.6395 LARSSON, Tomas ; THANANITHICHOT, Stithorn —
Does religion shape political competition in Thailand? Despite the prominence of religiously inflected rhetoric of good and evil in contemporary political contestation, existing research suggests that it does not. This article challenges this conventional wisdom. Survey data collected in connection with Thailand’s 2019 general election, which marked a transition from direct military rule to a hybrid regime, allow us to examine the political relevance of religious belonging, belief, and behaviour. Our analysis finds evidence for the political salience of a secular/religious cleavage: voters who self-identified as more religious were more inclined to support the main pro-military party Palang Pracharath and its closest allies, whilst more secularised voters tended to support anti-military parties in general and the Future Forward Party in particular. [R, abr.]
73.6396 LARUELLE, Marlene —
This article argues that interpreting Russia’s conservatism exclusively as a top-down phenomenon has obscured the possibility that there might exist a grassroots conservatism founded on very different bases than the state narrative, and which predates the state’s embrace of conservatism. It thus takes a fine-grained view of Russians’ conservative values by looking at (1) the existence since the 1990s of a situational conservatism that preceded the state’s “conservative turn”; (2) the fact that conservative attitudes are shared by almost all post-socialist countries; (3) the rise of moral conservatism and its limits; (4) attitudes toward the Church, which encapsulate the gap between discourse and practice; and (5) the polarisation of Russian society into conservative and non-conservative constituencies. [R] [First of a series of articles on "Grassroots conservatism: attitudes, actors, and scenes of the conservative revival in Russia and Central Asia", edited by the author. See also Abstr. 73.6156, 6171, 6313, 6371, 6391, 6497]
73.6397 LEANDER, Anna, et al.—
The Regulatory Security State (RSS) has far-reaching political consequences for the world beyond the EU, for EU priorities and its ability to realize them. We show this point through an analysis of how the extension of the RSS into the digital played into a constellation of factors that skewed politics towards the 2018 election of Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil. We trace the connections from the General Data Protection Regulation through shifts in Facebook’s self-regulation to the Brazilian elections with the help of three conceptual tools: ‘infrastructures’, ‘regulatory design’ and ‘ripples’: the GDPR generated a regulatory redesign of infrastructures sending ripples travelling from the EU to Brazil, back and beyond. We contribute theoretically by developing concepts for contextualizing the RSS and empirically by demonstrating the political stakes of contextualizing the RSS. Both contributions have a bearing for analyzes of the RSS beyond the case we focus on. [R] [See Abstr. 73.6943]
73.6398 LEE Cheol-Sung ; YOO Hyung-Geun —
In this study, the authors explore the ways that new forms of labor politics emerge in civil society in the era of flexible labor markets and fragmented workplaces (through outsourcing and subcontracting). First, a theoretical framework is developed that accounts for the formation processes of three modes of irregular, non-standard labor politics: politics of influence, politics of substitution, and politics of occupation. Each of these delineates positional politics of issue-specific threats and alliance, unions’ functional replacement of local civic governance, and unions’ takeover of the state’s institutional space. Then, using unique qualitative field interviews of labor activists and union leaders, a comparative case study is conducted to examine three instances of non-standard workers’ struggles against their employers in South Korean labor politics in the 2000s and the 2010s: the Hyundai Motors Irregular Workers’ Union, the Hope Union, and the Youth Community Union. [R, abr.]
73.6399 LEE Kyuwon ; YOU Hye Young —
There is growing concern about the movement of individuals from private sectors to bureaucracies, yet it is unclear how bureaucratic revolving doors affect connected firms’ political participation. We argue that when connected individuals enter government, connected firms reduce their proactive forms of participation because their connected bureaucrats possess firm-specific technical and legal knowledge to help them achieve their policy objectives. We test our intuition by constructing a novel data-set on career trajectories of bureaucrats in the Office of the US Trade Representative (USTR) and firms that are connected to USTR’s revolving-door bureaucrats. Empirical results show that firms with connections to USTR bureaucrats decrease their lobbying spending and participation on advisory committees under the USTR. The decrease in political participation is stronger when connected bureaucrats are more influential in policy production. [R, abr.]
73.6400 LEICHT, Caroline V. —
News parody as a genre of political satire has become an increasingly popular form of entertainment in the past two decades. Mirroring traditional news media in format and style has made this genre one that receives both praise and criticism. While some see it as a chance for a wider audience to become politically interested, others point to potentially negative effects such as increased political cynicism. While news parody as a form of political communication has been at the center of various studies, related research has been spread across a plethora of disciplines and subfields and some limitations and gaps in the literature remain substantially unexplored. This review article seeks to contribute to this research field by presenting a comprehensive overview of the existing literature and proposing new directions for the study of news parody as political communication. [R]
73.6401 LEPOUTRE, Maxime —
Public opinion research has shown that voters accept many falsehoods about politics. This observation is widely considered troubling for democracy – and especially participatory ideals of democracy. I argue that this influential narrative is nevertheless flawed because it misunderstands the nature of political understanding. Drawing on philosophical examinations of scientific modelling, I demonstrate that accepting falsehoods within one’s model of political reality is compatible with – and indeed can positively enhance – one’s understanding of that reality. Thus, the observation that voters accept many political falsehoods does not necessarily establish that they lack political understanding. I then address three worries: that voters cannot generally engage in such political modelling; that political modelling obscures facts that are crucial to political understanding; and that successful political modelling would require knowing that one’s model contains falsehoods. [R, abr.]
73.6402 LEVATI, M. Vittoria ; NARDI, Chiara —
Following a recommendation by Transparency International, we conduct a laboratory experiment to gauge the impact of a specific type of grassroots participation on petty corruption. Participants play -shot, three-person sequential bribery game that, depending on the treatment, either gives or does not give passive third parties suffering from corruption the opportunity to send a publicly visible message to potential bribers and bribees. We find that messaging opportunities deter bribe offers (i.e., the extensive margin of bribe), but affect neither the size of the offered bribe (i.e., the intensive margin) nor bribe acceptances. We conjecture that the different impact of the treatment on bribe-givers and bribe-takers may be due to the order of play. [R]
73.6403 LI Yuzhen, et al.—
Third-party punishment (TPP) has been shown to be an effective mechanism for maintaining human cooperation. However, it is puzzling how thirdparty punishment can be maintained, as punishers take on personal costs to punish defectors. Although there is evidence that punishers are preferred as partners because third-party punishment is regarded by bystanders as a costly signal of trustworthiness, other studies show that this signaling value of punishment can be severely attenuated because third-party helping is viewed as a stronger signal of trustworthiness than third-party punishment. Third-party helpers donate their payoffs to victims of defection in games instead of punishing defectors as third-party punishers do. Then, under what circumstances can third-party punishment be maintained by costly signaling when helping is also present? [R, abr.]
73.6404 LICHTIN, Florian ; VAN DER BRUG, Wouter ; REKKER, Roderik —
Over the past decades, electoral support for Green parties has gradually increased in Western Europe, especially among young people. This begs the question whether there are systematic differences between generations in support for Green parties, and whether there are also life-cycle effects. We answer this question by separating age, period and cohort effects on Green party support using CSES data covering 40 elections in 11 Western European countries. We find that when controlling for period and age, each new generation is more supportive of the Greens than the generation before. We also find negative age effects. While Green parties can expect to benefit in the future from generational replacement, the consequences of aging societies are to their disadvantage. [R]
73.6405 LINDHOLM, Annika ; RAPELI, Lauri —
Economic grievances, globalization, and voter discontent are among the usual explanations for the surge in right-wing populism (RWP) across Western democracies. However, subjective well-being has recently been introduced as an overlooked psychological factor explaining citizens’ democratic support, immigration attitudes, and populist vote choice. Yet we know little about how general well-being, instead of specific negative sentiments, relates to populist and nativist attitudes. This study examines the well-being bases of populist and nativist attitudes in Finland where, similar to other European countries, populism and anti-immigration attitudes have increased since the early 2000’s. Using the Finnish 2019 National Election Study, we demonstrate that life dissatisfaction, and not only economic concerns, relates to populist attitudes, setting an agenda for future populism research. We suggest that past research has not fully accounted for all psychological factors in explaining support for RWP. [R]
73.6406 MACDONALD, Robert ; MOLONY, Thomas —
With international election observation subject to increasing criticism, this article evaluates how effectively domestic observers can play the role of impartial arbiters relative to their international counterparts. It reviews academic arguments about the strengths and weaknesses of domestic and international observers, with a focus on (1) their methodologies, resources, and reporting practices; and (2) their credibility. It presents a case study of Zambia’s 2021 elections, detailing the major observation missions and their activities. It then compares the media coverage and popular perceptions of domestic and international observers, showing that many Zambian citizens still have reservations about the partiality of domestic election observation initiatives. The article concludes by theorizing the conditions in which domestic election observation can (1) provide impartial evaluations of election conduct; and (2) be perceived as trustworthy sources of these evaluations. [R]
73.6407 MAGALHÃES, Leandro de ; HIRVONEN, Salomo —
The effect of being the winner (vs. being the runner-up) on winning subsequent elections has been estimated across a series of countries using regression discontinuity design. We contribute to this literature by incorporating politicians who move across constituencies. The US and the UK are our case studies. UK-US differences are not apparent when comparing estimates of the individual incumbency advantage, i.e., winning the same office in the same constituency. UK-US differences in the career advantage of winning office are almost entirely driven by the ability of the UK’s close-race runners-up to win elsewhere subsequently. Runners-up are more likely to move to safer seats. Marginal winners become lockedin to their seat. In the US, we observe negligible movement across constituencies. [R]
73.6408 MAIER, Jürgen ; NAI, Alessandro —
Which candidates are more likely to go negative, and under which conditions? We analyze self-reported survey data from candidates having run in the 2017 German federal election for the main parties. More specifically, we test a comprehensive set of factors supposed to drive the use of (1) negative campaigning in general, (2) policy attacks, and (3) character attacks. Our results show that for all three versions of negative campaigning the political profile of candidates is most important, followed by personality traits, perceived campaign dynamics, social profile, and available campaign resources. [R, abr.]
73.6409 MARG, Stine ; RADTKE, Jörg —
The energy transition is putting regions under increasing pressure. On the way to a climate-neutral society and additionally promoted by the aspired independence from fossil energies from Russia, renewable energies and power grids must be expanded massively and more accelerated than ever. However, in the planning and implementation of energy infrastructures, there are always local conflicts that can turn violent and make local communities tremble. What do these conflicts look like, what dynamics are inherent in them, and what are their consequences? Conflict theory also attributes a vitalizing force to disputes, but energy transition conflicts seem to have an inhibiting effect on the achievement of expansion goals. It remains to be seen whether democratic potential can be exploited in the sense of agonistic democratic theory. [R, trad.; abr.]
73.6410 MARRIOTT, Lisa ; RASHBROOKE, Max —
This article explores tax credits for political party funding in Aotearoa New Zealand (NZ). Participation in the democratic process is low and declining in NZ, as political party membership drops and parties increasingly focus their attention on small numbers of large donors. Advantages of tax credits include incentivising parties to engage with society to attract donations, encouraging individuals to participate in the democratic process and potentially providing greater financial support to parties. The primary disadvantage is that tax credits require at least a small financial contribution from a donor, which will not be possible for everyone. For a relatively low cost of approximately NZ$2.35 per voter, large donations could be eliminated from the NZ political funding system, along with the concomitant potential for undue influence. Using the Canadian model for comparison, a similar system in NZ may result in greater public political engagement and better funded political parties. [R]
73.6411 MARTIN, Nicole S. —
This article considers how the far right affects ethnic minority vote choice and party evaluations, using the case of the British National Party (BNP). Minorities were more likely to vote for Labour in 2010 where the BNP received more votes, and a quasi-experimental increase in the BNP’s salience also increased support for Labour. However, ethnic minority voters evaluated the Conservatives more positively when the BNP put forward a candidate or received more votes. The strength of the far right may mobilise and reinforce traditional partisan loyalties among minorities, while changing perceptions of traditionally unpopular — but mainstream — alternatives. [R]
73.6412 MATUSH, Kelly —
Leaders nearly always claim that their diplomatic campaigns are intended to attract foreign support. However, many diplomatic campaigns fail spectacularly in this regard. While these events have largely been explained as diplomatic failures, I argue that alienating the apparent target of an international diplomatic campaign can be a deliberate strategy leaders use to win domestic support. Under certain conditions, a costly backlash from a foreign actor can be a credible signal that the leader shares the domestic audience’s preferences. Therefore, by intentionally provoking a backlash from a valuable foreign actor, leaders can exchange foreign condemnation for an increase in domestic support. I support this argument with evidence from Netanyahu’s 2015 speech to the US Congress. I show that, as expected by this theoretical framework, Netanyahu’s efforts resulted in a significant backlash among US Democrats and a corresponding increase of support among right-wing Israelis, a crucial constituency for his upcoming election. [R]
73.6413 MAYNE, Quinton ; KATSANIDOU, Alexia —
Existing research mainly analyzes mass attitudes towards the EU from the national and individual-level perspective. This paper adds to this literature by focusing on the relationship between EU support and subnational economic conditions, using harmonized survey data covering 40 years and 1.1 million respondents in 197 European regions. We first describe Europe’s changing subnational conditions in terms of catch-up, wealthy, declining and glass-ceiling regions. The paper then develops and tests a set of hypotheses regarding the temporally dynamic relationship between EU attitudes and regions’ long- and short-term economic conditions. Our analyses reveal important longitudinal variations in this relationship with low levels of geographic differentiation in public opinion giving way to clear spatial differences in recent years. Our findings are consistent with the idea that the Great Recession and Brexit have generated a new geography of both Euroscepticism in Europe’s declining regions and EU support in its wealthy and catch-up regions. [R]
73.6414 McCARTHY, Rory —
How do citizens in the Arab world hold their governments to account between elections? Diagonal accountability mechanisms in the literature show how citizens can constrain executive power by imposing reputational costs, by using legal action, or through watchdog oversight. However, citizen mobilizations in the Arab world are often autonomous, reflecting low political trust and ineffective political parties and therefore weakening potential accountability mechanisms. This article uses a structured, focused comparison of protest episodes during the Tunisian transition to theorize three alternative mechanisms used in autonomous mobilizations. Autonomous movements develop legitimacy for their claims by reinterpreting initial grievances as legitimate claims for greater popular participation in decision-making. Although these movements all insist on their independence from parties and unions, they develop temporary and expedient alliances with political actors for greater leverage. When movements have sufficient local resources, they try to establish lasting collective capacities to demonstrate alternative models of development. [R, abr.]
73.6415 McNEIL, Andrew ; HABERSTROH, Charlotte —
Our paper assesses how intergenerationally mobile voters’ positions in the Brexit referendum differ from their non-mobile counterparts. We differentiate between the effects of social origins, social mobility and destination position. To do so, we model data from Understanding Society with a diagonal reference model. We show that origins are nearly as important as current socio-economic positions for predicting the probability of voting to ‘leave’ or ‘remain’ in the Brexit referendum. We find that a first-generation graduate would be up to 10 percentage points less likely to vote ‘Remain’ than a graduate whose parents also went to university. [R, abr.]
73.6416 MEDEIROS, Mike ; GRAVELLE, Timothy B. —
The COVID-19 pandemic has seen opponents of public health mandates deploy a range of populist and anti-elite arguments. The 2021 Canadian federal election was an exceptional “pandemic election” in which the COVID-19 health crisis took centre stage. But the election campaign also saw the populist People’s Party of Canada (PPC) rise to prominence by opposing pandemic-related public health restrictions. While the party failed to win a seat, it did manage to triple its vote share (1.6 per cent to 4.9 per cent). It is unclear, however, what factors led to the rise in support for the PPC. To explore this issue, we draw on an original post-election survey (n = 18,950) and focus on populist attitudes and opposition to COVID-19-related public health restrictions. Results from regression models and structural equation models (SEMs) indicate that opposition to public health restrictions was a much stronger factor than populism in shaping support for the PPC. [R]
73.6417 MEGUID, Bonnie M. —
Despite a growing literature on niche parties, little is known about whether and how these parties are responsive to policy competition. Drawing upon data on regionalist parties’ programmatic strategies across Western Europe from 1971 to 2009, I find that these niche parties are more ideologically flexible than previously posited when facing governmental policy appeasement. While they do not shift to a more extreme issue position following increases in a region’s decentralization level, regionalist parties do broaden their issue agenda. Issue diversification, however, is limited to those parties whose goals are being met; dissatisfied secessionist parties do not expand their issue emphases after decentralization reforms short of independence. [R, abr.]
73.6418 MENDES MOTTA, Filipe ; HAUBER, Gabriella —
This article aims to understand how anti-environmentalism connects with the conservative, authoritarian and populist discourse of Brazilian far-right President Jair Bolsonaro. Indeed, we argue that anti-environmentalism is one of the critical factors for understanding the postures and practices of Bolsonarism. We analyse 852 speech acts, drawn from all statements involving environmental issues made by Bolsonaro and three Brazilian ministers over a 14 month period between 2018 and 2019. Our analysis offers two major contributions: a) we situate the contours of authoritarian populism in the Global South (Brazil), shifting the gaze that has hitherto been focused on Europe and the USA, and, above all; b) through focus on the texts of the leader we develop a discursive approach to the understanding of populism and anti-environmentalism. Our results show that Bolsonaro adopts authoritarian measures to defend global agribusiness, in addition to denying or minimising environmental problems. [R]
73.6419 MERIVAKI, Thessalia ; SUTTMANN-LEA, Mara —
Electoral management bodies have a responsibility to ensure voters have equitable access to the election process, starting with providing information to successfully navigate it. In this article, we assess the educative effects of different modes of election official voter education on completing the voter registration process. We use surveys of voter education activities submitted by the state of Florida’s 67 County local election officials (LEOs) in the United States to evaluate their impact on new voter registrations between 2014 and 2018. We also use a dataset of Florida election officials’ monthly Facebook activity during the 2020 election to examine the relationship between content-specific social media posts and new voter registrations, and usage of Florida’s online voter registration (OVR) portal. We find that traditional media, specifically newspaper ads, and face-to-face outreach — visits to local communities, and training for third-party voter registration drives — increase new registrations. [R, abr.]
73.6420 MÖLDER, Martin ; ENYEDI, Zsolt ; CASAL BÉRTOA, Fernando —
An institutionalized party system is often regarded as a precondition for a well-functioning democracy. Recent recesses in democracy and, in particular, in the liberal dimension of democracy in relatively established party systems, however, warrant a fresh look into how party system institutionalization shapes liberal democracy. We use a dataset that covers 58 European party systems over more than a century to assess how party system institutionalization in the governmental arena — closure — is related to more robust liberal democracy. Our results show that stable coalition combinations are conducive to higher levels of liberalism, while infrequent government changes and the exclusion of new parties from the governmental arena have a detrimental role. [R]
73.6421 MONFORTE, Pierre ; MAESTRI, Gaja —
This article examines how refugee support volunteers based in Britain and in France negotiate the boundaries between charity (or humanitarian) action and social activism since the 2015 ‘refugee crisis’. Scholarly literature has often separated charity and humanitarian action from social activism, as the former is seen as lacking the goal of social and political change that characterises the latter. The set of 147 in-depth interviews we conducted in different British and French refugee support charities and networks reveals the complex relationship between charity and protest. Through the focus on the moral dilemmas that participants encounter throughout their experience in the field, this article aims to highlight the ambivalences of their engagement as well as its transformative potential. [R, abr.]
73.6422 MONSIVÁIS-CARRILLO, Alejandro —
Winning elections usually make partisan voters more politically satisfied and confident. However, if they voted for a president that actively undermines the legitimacy of democratic institutions, they will be compelled to accommodate their views and update their judgment on a selective basis. They will support the regime’s performance and yet distrust the institutions denounced by the government. This claim is tested using data from a representative survey conducted in Mexico. In this country, the president is a populist leader who consistently denounces all constraints on the executive. In particular, the president frequently undermines the institutions safeguarding free and fair elections. The analysis reveals that the gap in political trust reflects the opposite reactions from partisan winners and losers to the executive’s antagonizing behavior. [R, abr.]
73.6423 MORAL, Mert ; BEST, Robin E. —
Do party policy offerings simply reflect public opinion or do parties shape public demand for policies? Theories of party position-taking and the operation of democracy expect parties to track their supporters’ positions, while scholarship of public opinion has shown voters often adopt the position of their preferred parties. We apply both of these theoretical expectations to the relationship between citizen polarization and party polarization and additionally argue that the relationship between them should be stronger among politically more engaged and sophisticated citizens. We draw on aggregated survey data from 174 cross-national and national election studies from 19 established democracies, to assess the extent to which citizen polarization responds to party polarization, the extent to which parties respond to changes in citizen polarization, and whether these relationships differ across different groups of citizens. [R, abr.]
73.6424 MORINI, Mara —
The 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine is having an impact all over the world. Italy has often sought to balance EU responses with its national interests towards Russia but in contrast with the past, Mario Draghi’s government took an unequivocally firm stance towards the Kremlin. This article describes the historical origins of the so-called ‘privileged relation’ between Italy and Russia in order to understand better the emergence and development of pro-Russian parties in the Italian political system. How did they react to the war in Ukraine? What kinds of policies have the parties implemented since the start of the conflict? Is there any continuity with the Draghi government? What about the pacifist movement and its political representation? Engaging with these questions enables us to offer a general overview of Italian parties’ attitudes towards this international event in Europe. [R] [See Abstr. 73.6297]
73.6425 MORRIS, Kevin ; MILLER, Peter —
Hurricane Michael made landfall in the Florida panhandle 27 days before the 2018 elections. In the aftermath the governor issued Executive Order 18-283, allowing election officials in eight affected counties to loosen a variety of voting laws and consolidate polling places but providing no emergency funding to maintain the planned number of polling places. We test the efficacy of the order, using a novel research design that separates the weather effects of the hurricane on turnout from the administrative effects of how the election was run. We find little evidence that the hurricane itself (as proxied by historically relative rainfall) reduced turnout but that the executive order likely had large, negative turnout effects thanks to widespread polling place consolidation. [R, abr.]
73.6426 MOTZ, Nicolas —
I propose a novel model of party formation and show that two parties can dominate all elections only if they provide sufficient opportunities for members while limiting the success of defectors. More specifically, I establish three conditions for two-parties dominance: parties must be divided into a left-wing and a right-wing camp in any two-party equilibrium, voters at the national level cannot be too concentrated in the centre relative to the most radical districts, and politicians need to be sufficiently motivated by the desire to win elections at higher levels of government. Furthermore, I establish the existence of a specific two-party equilibrium featuring a centreleft and a centre-right party. I use this equilibrium to illustrate that primaries can reduce the likelihood of entry of third parties. [R, abr.]
73.6427 MUGIZI, Francisco M. P. ; PASTORY, Parestico —
Does resource allocation by the central government to local governments in Tanzania favour opposition or the ruling party’s strongholds? The literature advances two opposing theories – electoral competition and hegemonic party hypotheses. We use unique data on fiscal transfers and human resource allocations to investigate the effect of electoral support on government allocations. Contrary to the two hypotheses, we find no political bias in fiscal resources transferred to local governments. Similarly, we find no strong evidence to suggest any political bias in human resource allocation. On the whole, neither does the evidence confirm nor conclusively disconfirm the two hypotheses. The findings imply that hegemonicparties do not necessarily opt for a discriminative strategy in intergovernmental resource allocations even after facing a threatening opposition. Flexibility in autocratic menu and the path dependence of government’s social policy are likely to explain this kind of hegemonic party’s allocative behaviour. [R]
73.6428 MÜLLER, Henriette ; CAMIA, Christin —
The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states have increased their promotion of women in public life. The expansion of women’s rights in these states functions as a central policy tool to stimulate modernization processes. This article investigates how the Gulf governments steer women’s empowerment through the press. Regulated by the state, media outlets in GCC countries primarily serve to affirm and amplify the legitimacy of the government. Focusing on 15 English-language newspapers from 2008 to 2017, this article analyzes the degree to which women’s empowerment in various arenas of society was addressed and the valence with which it was reported. Moreover, it analyzes whether foreign and domestic news were addressed differently. The article finds that once nondemocracies focus on women’s rights, positive media portrayals, especially of domestic news, become central for legitimizing both women’s empowerment and the regime. The article contributes to the growing literature on women’s rights legislation and the state-media nexus in autocracies. [R]
73.6429 MÜLLER, Stefan ; KNEAFSEY, Liam —
The expectation that voters behave rationally has been challenged through studies suggesting that “irrelevant events” like natural disasters and sports results change voting behavior. We test the effect of irrelevant events by matching candidate-level election results from Irish general (1922-2020) and local elections (1942-2019) with games in the men’s Gaelic football and hurling championships, the most popular sports in Ireland. Although Irish citizens care deeply about sports, we fail to find any relationship between match results and support for incumbents or politicians of government parties. These findings hold when applying an “unexpected event during survey design” to two representative surveys. Our results contribute to the literature on political accountability and point to conditional effects of irrelevant events. [R]
73.6430 MURALEEDHARAN, Sruthi —
Narendra Modi’s national leadership since 2014 is a significant marker of revitalisation of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in Indian politics. This article traces Modi’s association with the idea and rhetoric of development. He presented himself as vikaspurush (development man) and as a leader who would provide strong governance for India when he campaigned in the 2014 general elections. The Gujarat Model was showcased by him as the blueprint for development for the whole of India. However, a closer analysis of the developmental paradigm demonstrates that he has changed secular meanings and connotations of state-initiated development by associating state action with the rituals of pilgrimage used in the yatra (procession) politics of the Hindu nationalist movement. The article highlights the significance of the blurring of the lines between the administrative-bureaucratic process of planning and religio-spatial symbolism. [R]
73.6431 MUYTERS, Gertjan ; MADDENS, Bart —
This article investigates determinants of candidate turnover in 10 European established democracies with list-PR electoral systems. We identify party and election variables that affect the supply and demand of new candidates on the parties’ lists. In addition, we apply a weighted candidate turnover measure to investigate the dynamic of renewal on high-ranked list positions. We built an original dataset that contains 3344 electoral lists of represented political parties. Hypotheses are tested by means of a multilevel analysis of political party list renewal rates. At the party level, leadership change and larger party size in terms of members are found to coincide with higher general turnover. At the system level, general turnover is higher in elections with closed lists and high electoral volatility. [R, abr.]
73.6432 NADPOROZHSKII, Ilia —
This article proposes the use of the indicator of elite rotation to deepen the understanding of the phenomenon of authoritarian cooptation. The high frequency of changes in the ruling coalition can have a twofold effect on authoritarian regimes. On the one hand, it makes it possible to include new leaders in the ruling coalition in a timely fashion, remove potential opponents and maintain loyalty among the nobility. On the other hand, constant rotation creates a situation of high uncertainty and deprives some elites of access to previously received benefits. This study offers an empirical test of these assumptions: an analysis of all authoritarian regimes that existed between 1968 and 2010 (as well as all dictators who ruled between 1968 and 2008) leads to the conclusion that a low level of elite rotation generally contributes to the resilience of authoritarian regimes and leaders. [R]
73.6433 NAKATANI, Miho —
This study aims to identify the types of city council decision-making processes that influence public perceptions of procedural fairness and the acceptability of decisions. Using an online experimental scenario survey conducted in Japan, this study found that, given the opportunity to participate in the decision-making process and when the decision is reached through a compromise among council members, people tend to feel that the process is fair and accept the decision even when it is unfavourable to them. This result is important for the governance of many advanced countries with low economic growth rates but great public demands. Additionally, this study highlights the process preferences of the public, which has received little attention compared with research on policy preferences. [R]
73.6434 NDAWANA, Enock ; HOVE, Mediel —
The Zimbabwe African National Union (Patriotic Front) (ZANU[PF]) regime’s survival strategies have been misleadingly presented as relying mainly upon political violence. This neglects analysis focusing on the ZANU(PF) regime’s non-violent survival strategies, which have also been key to its longevity. While a growing body of literature discusses ZANU(PF) non-violent strategies, including patriotic history, cultural nationalism and provision of land for housing, it has missed much of what has kept ZANU(PF) in power. The existing studies failed to go beyond the idea that ZANU(PF) actors are deeply cynical and only interested in ‘power’, not ‘believers’ in their own ideology or responsive to people’s needs. Using the cases of ZANU(PF)’s creation and co-optation of civil society organisations that challenge ‘genuine’ ones for advocacy space, especially labour unions and students’ unions between 2000 and 2018, this study makes a twofold contribution to the literature on ZANU(PF)’s political survival. It demonstrates the importance of civil society engagement as a non-violent strategy in ensuring ZANU(PF)’s political survival and that ZANU(PF)’s political project is ideological in addition to being about staying in power. [R, abr.]
73.6435 NDAYIRAGIJE, Réginas ; VANDEGINSTE, Stef —
Building on an original dataset, this paper explores the evolution of the consociational power-sharing at critical junctures in Burundi. Covering almost two decades of power-sharing practice (2001-2020), this paper analyzes the allocation of high salience ministerial portfolios and of provincial governor positions along ethnic lines. The paper shows how quotas matter and how a changing political context affects the real-life implementation of Burundi’s negotiated power-sharing arrangements. We argue that dominant political actors take advantage of loopholes in the design of powersharing institutions in order to enhance their access to important political positions. [R]
73.6436 NEILSEN, Rhiannon —
In the contemporary digital age, mass atrocity crimes are increasingly promoted and organized online. Social media, encrypted chatrooms and messaging apps have been employed (by regimes and non-state actors alike) to stoke racial and political division, recruit sympathizers and facilitate atrocities. At the same time, there is increasing evidence of the power and promise of offensive cyberspace operations in conflict. Despite the parallel attention afforded to atrocity prevention and cyber, almost no attention has been afforded to the question of whether proactive cyberspace operations might be used for human protection purposes — specifically, to prevent genocide, war crimes, crimes against humanity and ethnic cleansing. I introduce the concept of ‘cyber humanitarian interventions’ — the use of sophisticated cyber operations to frustrate perpetrators’ means and motivations for mass atrocities — as a new tool in the atrocity prevention toolbox. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 73.6822]
73.6437 NIEDZIAŁKOWSKI, Krzysztof —
The impact of Europeanisation on domestic policies is often associated with the alignment of European policies and discourses with national ones. The Habitats Directive mandating wolf protection entailed heated debates across the EU, suggesting diverging values and interests at various levels of policy-making. I present an analysis of wolf policy and politics in Germany, where wolves have returned after a long period of extinction. Tracing the dynamics of institutions involved in wolf management in 2000-2021, I identify key groups involved, their activities and positions as well as the impact of European rules and discourses. Unlike in some other Central in Eastern European countries, German wolf policy was strongly influenced by Europeanisation that helped to sustain the institutional path of wolf conservation, despite criticism from dominant land-use actors who politicised the issue to relax conservation rules. I suggest adding safeguarding of latent policies to the catalogue of outcomes of Europeanisation. [R]
73.6438 NIEUWENHUIS, Rense —
I examine the relative poverty risk among single-parent households in countries that have a large share of households with dual earners. Data from the Luxembourg Income Study (LIS) Database are used to analyze eighteen OECD countries in the period 1984 to 2010. I find that single parents face higher relative income poverty risks in countries with a large share of dual-earner households and that this higher risk of poverty is related to higher standards of living in those countries: higher standards of living have raised poverty thresholds, and single-parent incomes are less likely to reach those higher poverty thresholds. I also find that this overall pattern varied across institutional contexts: a rise of dual-earner households puts single parents at a disadvantage only in countries that have relatively low public expenditures on childcare and relatively low income transfer policies. [R] [See Abstr. 73.6178]
73.6439 NIKOLAYENKO, Olena —
There are conflicting theoretical expectations regarding students’ protest behaviour in contemporary autocracies. On the one hand, in line with a resource model of political participation, university students are more likely to protest than their peers without higher education. On the other hand, university students in autocracies might refrain from high-risk activism in exchange for their own financial well-being and career advancement. To address this debate, the article leverages data on anti-corruption protests organized by the opposition politician Alexei Navalny in March 2017. Results show that anti-corruption protests were larger in Russian cities with a larger university student population. Next, employing individual-level data from the fifth wave of the European Values Survey, multinomial logistic regression analysis demonstrates that university students participated in demonstrations at a higher rate than non-students of the same age. [R, abr.]
73.6440 NILLSUWAN, Benjamas —
The changes in Thailand’s policy on labor migrant control appeared optimistic for refugee and human rights issues in recent years. This article argues that such positive adjustment is to take control of refugees and migrants outside the space of the global refugee regime. Using the case of Chiang Mai, Thailand, it discussed how the movement of Shan people in this area indicates mixed migration and how the Thai authorities and local Thais’ views of them affect their status in Thailand. It examined the role of international norms that influence Thailand’s policy and treatment of the Shan refugees and migrants in education and healthcare. Recent adjustments demonstrated that the Thai government began altering migration restrictions, although this is an attempt to seize control. In the refugee regime complexity, Thailand interacts with the regimes in two areas: education and healthcare, to maintain the control and manageability of refugees and migrants. [R]
73.6441 NORTHMORE-BALL, Ksenia ; TERTYTCHNAYA, Katerina —
Do different Russian generations differ in their propensity to vote? Drawing on evidence from Soviet and post-Soviet elections, we consider how earlylife electoral experiences influence voters’ life-long voting propensity. The empirical analysis relies on a harmonized dataset of survey data covering all national elections between 1991 and 2018. We estimate differences in turnout propensity across generations using several forms of age-periodcohort analysis including hierarchical age-period-cohort analysis and semi-parametric generalized additive models. Findings suggest that generations voting for the first time in elections taking place between 1946-1966 have a higher propensity to vote than others. Complementing quantitative evidence with extensive description, we propose that state-led mobilization efforts under Communism and the opportunity to vote in regularly held elections may account for these effects. [R, abr.]
73.6442 OHMURA, Tamaki ; BAILER, Stefanie —
Why do women fail to rise in parties, especially youth parties? This analysis shows that female party members’ preferences regarding the purpose of a committee, networking and the election rule in party organisations differ from male party members’ which is likely a reason why women face challenges to rise in parties. This article investigates for the first time these gender based differences in preferences simultaneously by conducting a survey experiment with youth party members. Respondents (n > 1200) were asked if they would run for a seat in a decision-making committee of their youth party. In order to analyse which youth party members opt for which opportunities, the purpose of these committees, the networking opportunities they provide, and the election rule for these committees vary at random. The results show that female members hesitate to join committees that would grant them power, and that they are less likely to opt for upward networking opportunities than their male party colleagues. [R, abr.]
73.6443 OLSSON, Filip —
This paper examines the link between implicit racial bias and right-wing populism. Using data from 41,803 participants, I explore whether implicit racial bias predicts the support of right-wing populist parties (RPP) in France, Belgium, and the Netherlands. The results reveal a significant association between implicit racial bias and support of RPP, even when controlling for explicit bias. Additional analyses show that the effect of implicit racial bias is especially high for participants with high levels of explicit racial bias. Participants with negative explicit racial bias are thus especially likely to support RPP if they also have high levels of negative implicit racial bias. The study also finds a significant effect for participants with no explicit racial bias, although the effect is markedly smaller. [R]
73.6444 OSTWALD, Kai ; RIAMBAU, Guillem —
Ballot secrecy is a cornerstone of electoral democracy, since its real or perceived absence can make voters reluctant to express their true preferences. Through survey data from Singapore, we show that doubts over ballot secrecy can alter voting behaviour even when the vote is secret and there are no individually-targeted punishments or incentives; specifically, they lead a small subset of Singaporean voters to support the dominant party, despite a preference for the opposition. We also examine individuallevel correlates of doubting ballot secrecy: a tendency towards belief in conspiracies and distrust of the mass media are the strongest predictors. Finally, a counterfactual exercise demonstrates the sensitivity of election outcomes to marginal vote swings; it suggests that doubting ballot secrecy can secure the dominant party a small number of additional parliamentary seats, thereby buttressing dominant party rule without requiring any concerted action or overtly repressive measures. [R]
73.6445 OTTERVIK, Mattias ; SU Zheng —
This article tests gender system as a mediator in the relationship between gender and corruption. Using data from World Values Survey we find a robust, significant link between acceptance of patriarchy and acceptance of corruption. We also find a significant link between acceptance of male superiority and acceptance of corruption. In the relationship between gender and attitudes toward corruption, gender system is a consistently statistically significant predictor of acceptance of corruption whereas gender is not. The predictive power of acceptance of patriarchy and male superiority on corruption holds even with extensive controls. These results provide insight into the link between gender and corruption and suggest some of the wide-ranging effects of gender system on the political system. [R]
73.6446 PAÑO-YÁÑEZ, Pablo ; PACHECO-LUPERCIO, Fernanda ; SUCOZHAÑAY-CALLE, Dolores —
The extended constitutional process Ecuador has undergone since 2007 for the approval of its new Constitution and its subsequent application generated high expectations in the specific area of democratic development as the so-called citizen participation systems were implemented at the local level. This article offers a qualitative analysis based on documentary sources and information extracted from interviews and discussion groups with politicians, technicians and citizens, to understand the characteristics and achievements of the process of institutionalization of citizen participation and to assess its democratic quality. In spite of the good practices in the area of social participation, the results offer a scenario of highly institutionalized weak democracy, with little progress in terms of the direct and participatory democracy established in its Constitution. [R]
73.6447 PARK Jeeyoung ; CHANG Kiyoung —
This paper mainly deals with the relationship between citizens’ levels of news exposure and their behaviors toward the president’s corruption scandal in South Korea. In particular, we examine how an individual’s level of news exposure affected his/her level of political information about the corruption scandal, perception of then President Park Geun-hye’s responsibility for corruption, and participation in anti-Park protests or counter-protests. In this paper, we argue that more exposure to consistent news reports of the president’s corruption increases the amount of information citizens with different political dispositions have in common. The more their sets of political information overlap, the closer their perceptions and behavioral choices regarding a corruption scandal are likely to be. [R]
73.6448 PELTONIEMI, Johanna ; NEMČOK, Miroslav ; WASS, Hanna —
Increasingly many citizens residing abroad maintain connections to their country of origin and follow its national elections. Considering that this group constitutes a growing share of the national electorate, it is essential to better understand factors that motivate electoral participation. We explore the role of economic, social and cultural ties in a unified analysis of turnout among Finnish citizens residing abroad. We rely on individual-level register data that cover the entire Finnish expatriate electorate (n = 96,290) and match their personal background characteristics (e.g. property ownership, length of stay abroad, language) with official turnout from the 2019 Finnish parliamentary elections on the bases of personal identification codes. In line with the theoretical expectations, the results provide strong empirical evidence that non-resident citizens who maintain connections to the country of origin are more likely to vote in homeland elections. [R] [See Abstr. 73.6536]
73.6449 PERRY, Samuel L. —
Americans are increasingly polarized by a variety of metrics. The dimensions, extent, causes, and consequences of that polarization have been the subject of much debate. Yet despite the centrality of religion to early discussions, the analytical focus on America’s divides has largely shifted toward partisan identity, political ideology, race, and class interests. I show that religion remains powerfully implicated in all dimensions of American polarization, and sociologists must once again make religion more central to their analyses. After outlining research on American polarization, focusing on the role of religion, I survey findings within the burgeoning literatures on cultural transformation processes, (White) Christian nationalism, complex religion, and Americans’ attitudes toward science in order to underscore the centrality of ethno-religious identities, religious demography, and religious institutions for both shaping and exacerbating various forms of polarization. Lastly, I propose an agenda for elucidating religion’s ongoing role in understanding polarization beyond public opinion research at the macro-, meso-, and micro-levels. [R, abr.]
73.6450 PHILLIPS, Christian Dyogi —
Majority minority districts are widely viewed as opportunities for racial minority groups to expand their representation in elected office. Do these districts facilitate the same opportunities for descriptive representation for women and men? I argue that majority minority districts have served as important but distinct opportunities for Latinas and Latinos to get on the ballot. Analyzing pooled data from 57,812 state legislative general elections from the mid-1990s to 2015, and during the first rounds of elections following 2000 and 2010 census-based redistricting, I find support for this view. Key factors often associated with majority minority districts’ capacity as vehicles for minority representation, such as increasingly large Latina/o proportions of district populations and incumbent networks, are more robustly related to the presence of Latinos than Latinas on the ballot. [R, abr.]
73.6451 PIERONI, Luca ; ROSSELLÓ ROIG, Melcior ; SALMASI, Luca —
We study the effect of immigration on the upsurge of right-wing populism in Italy. Our data consider electoral results at the municipality level of the Senate of the Italian Republic and the Chamber of Deputies over the period 2006-2018. Using an IV strategy based on the shift-share instrument, we find that immigration generates a sizable causal increase in votes for the right-wing populist party Lega. Immigration also works as a major catalyst for the electoral distance between Lega and its most direct competitors. We explore how different levels of tax autonomy impact the results, as well as how the re-branding of Lega as a national movement affects the relation between immigration and support for the party. [R]
73.6452 PILET, Jean-Benoit, et al.—
As representative democracy is increasingly criticized, a new institution is becoming popular among academics and practitioners: deliberative citizens’ assemblies. To evaluate whether these assemblies can deliver their promise of re-engaging the dissatisfied with representative politics, we explore who supports them and why. We build on a unique survey conducted with representative samples of 15 Western European countries and find, first, that the most supportive are those who are less educated and have a low sense of political competence and an anti-elite sentiment. Thus, support does come from the dissatisfied. Second, we find that this support is for a part ‘outcome contingent’, in the sense that it changes with respondents’ expectations regarding the policy outcome from deliberative citizens’ assemblies. This second finding nuances the first one and suggests that while deliberative citizens’ assemblies convey some hope to re-engage disengaged citizens, this is conditioned on the expectation of a favourable outcome. [R]
73.6453 PINK, Sebastian ; SCHMIDT, Johannes —
Two months before the 2021 federal election, a four-day heavy rain event in the west, east and southeast of Germany caused one of the biggest flood disasters in the history of Germany. It remains an open question whether this extreme weather event had an impact on the results of the federal election in the affected regions. This is also important because the situation of the 2021 federal election — no incumbent candidate standing for re-election — differs from the situation in which the effects of natural disasters have typically been studied, namely on incumbent re-election. To address this question, we combine election results at the municipal level, the highest regional resolution, (1) with a classification of municipalities as having been affected by the heavy rain event and (2) with a satellite-based estimate of the severity of that affect. [R, abr.]
73.6454 PIRRO, Andrea LP ; TAGGART, Paul —
Populism and conspiracy theories present a number of common traits — Manichaeanism, a sense of victimhood, and an ambivalence towards representative politics — and populists’ use of conspiracy theories is politically purposeful. Targeting a conspiring elite serves to vilify real or fictional opponents and/or shield populists from hostile attacks. Looking at three cases of populists in government — Orbán in Hungary, Trump in the US, and Chávez in Venezuela — we examine the definition of conspiring elites (who), the circumstances under which conspiracy theories are propagated (when), and the ultimate purpose of conspiratorial framing (why). We demonstrate how populists in power use conspiracy theories to demonise and delegitimise their opponents, to promote or prolong a sense of crisis, and to rally support while distracting from possible failure. [R, abr.]
73.6455 POLJAK, Željko —
Various research have been directed towards investigating the behaviour of political parties engaging in attacks. However, this topic has predominantly been studied in campaigning venues while focusing only on the attacker (parties that are attacking). This study contributes to the existing literature by (1) studying attack behaviour in the parliamentary venue, and (2) analysing the interactions between both the attacker and the target. To this end, this paper uses longitudinal data on attacks during question time sessions in the parliaments (2010 to 2020) of Belgium, Croatia and the United Kingdom. More specifically, I investigate the conditions that make parties engage in mutual attacks. These conditions can be characterised along three dimensions: time (proximity to elections), status (government vs. opposition), and ideology (close vs. distant). The results confirm the overarching argument that: (1) more attacks in parliaments happen closer to election day; (2) opposing parties are more likely to attack the government rather than vice-versa; (3) governing parties equally attack the opposition and themselves; and finally, (4) the larger the ideological distance between parties, the more likely attacks happen (with mainstream parties engaging equally in attack behaviour compared to radical parties). As such, these findings contribute to our understanding of attack strategies between parties in regular day-to-day politics. [R]
73.6456 POLJAK, Željko —
The literature has found that politicians who lag behind in public approval ratings during campaigns resort to more negativity. However, the actual impact of approval on the use of negativity during the electoral cycle has yet to be addressed. Furthermore, due to the short-lived nature of campaigns, current studies have been unable to establish a directional causal link between approval ratings and negativity. This article addresses these gaps by: (1) building a theory for understanding the impact of public approval on the use of negativity throughout the electoral cycle; and (2) methodologically testing this impact on a time series basis. Using data on negativity in parliaments, the results confirm that low approval ratings lead to more negativity closer to elections in Belgium (2014-2020) and Croatia (2010-2021). In the UK (2010-2020), however, approval does not appear to be a significant predictor of negativity use. These findings have important implications for our understanding of the use of negativity by political actors outside campaigns. [R]
73.6457 POPESCU, Liliana ; VESALON, Lucian —
This paper examines how a radical right populist party uses anti-communism to produce an anti-establishment discourse and consolidate ultraconservative political values. At the end of 2020 The Alliance for the Unity of Romanians (AUR) entered the Romanian Parliament, taking many by surprise. We indicate how they have capitalised not only on the “normalisation” of radical right themes, but also on pre-existing anti-communist discourses. After demonstrating how anti-communism has structured the post-socialist Romanian politics, we reveal how it was used as an identifier of the political establishment and how AUR operated a gradual replacement of “communism” with “neo-Marxism” in their discourse. [R]
73.6458 POPIC, Tamara —
This article argues that the impact of veto points on a government’s policy outcomes depends crucially on the degree of institutionalization of the party system. Specifically, the article claims that two dimensions of party system institutionalization — stability of relations between parties and between parties and voters — condition the ability of the opposition to block governments’ policy plans through veto points. It showcases this argument by applying the method of causal process tracing to a comparative analysis of health policy reforms in Slovakia (2002-2004) and Hungary (2006-2008). [R]
73.6459 POSPIESZNA, Paulina ; LOWN, Patrick ; DIETRICH, Simone —
This study examines democracy promotion efforts that target young people in post-Soviet countries. Specifically we assess the effectiveness of a civic education programme in Poland in improving attitudes toward democracy and self-perceptions of political efficacy. The analysis of quasi-experimental data reveals that young citizens from post-Soviet states (Belarus, Moldova, Russia, and Ukraine) were more likely to show greater support of democratic institutions, hold democratic attitudes, and perceive themselves as having political efficacy. However, we interpret the results with caution as changes in the attitudes were not substantial. This may be attributed to the fact that democracy education programmes attract already politically and socially active young people. [R]
73.6460 POW, James —
There are two important dimensions to the membership of mini-publics that are distinct from the membership of conventional representative institutions: the selection mechanism (sortition) and the profile of the body’s eligible membership (‘ordinary’ citizens). This article examines the effects of these design features on perceived legitimacy. A survey experiment in the deeply divided context of Northern Ireland finds no evidence that variation in mini-public selection features has an overall effect on perceived legitimacy, but there are important individual-level differences. [R] [See Abstr. 73.6512]
73.6461 RAFAŁOWSKI, Wojciech —
One of the sources of the incumbent advantage over the challenger in a two-candidate election is the possibility of referring to accomplishments in office. Incumbents exploit this resource in their campaigning rhetoric by putting greater emphasis on competence than challengers do. However, this tendency has not been tested outside two-party systems yet. In multiparty settings, the outgoing government, often formed by a coalition of parties, faces multiple opposition forces. This can change the strategic context of the competition, so the generalizations made in two-party systems may not be adequate. Using the Comparative Campaign Dynamics Dataset, I demonstrate that the tendency to put more emphasis on competence does not apply to government parties in multiparty elections in Europe. However, parties with better positions in the pre-electoral polls are more likely to emphasize traits associated with the ability to govern efficiently during the campaign. [R]
73.6462 RANEY, Tracey ; McGREGOR, R. Michael —
Since the #MeToo movement, several countries have taken steps to address sexual harassment in politics (for example, the United States, United Kingdom and Canada). While researchers have evaluated the electability of candidates accused of sexual harassment, less is known about what the public thinks should happen when elected officials engage in this behaviour. Utilizing an innovative module from the 2019 Canadian Election Study, we assess the steps voters believe legislatures should take when an MP sexually harasses someone. Our results demonstrate that a vast majority of the public believes that MPs should face consequences when they commit sexual harassment, including potential removal from office. We also find that women are more likely than men to believe MPs should be punished when they are accused of sexual harassment. [R, abr.]
73.6463 READ, Hannah —
Affective polarization is characterized by deep antagonism between political opponents and is an issue of growing concern. Some philosophers have recently suggested empathy as a possible remedy. In particular, it has been suggested that empathy might mitigate the harm resulting from affective polarization by helping us find common ground across our differences. While these discussions provide a helpful starting point, important questions regarding the conditions under which empathizing and finding common ground are morally appropriate and likely to be useful, given the many risks associated with taking this approach, remain unaddressed. I therefore give an account of the risks that we must reckon with if empathy and common ground are to help remedy affective polarization and repair damaged relations between political opponents. [R, abr.]
73.6464 REITER, Florence —
The almost unlimited amount of available data on the internet holds great opportunities for political science research, but also leads to methodological challenges. These arise especially in the collection, storage and processing of web-based data such as media websites in order to meet scientific standards. In particular, intersubjective comprehensibility and reliability should be able to be guaranteed when dealing with internet-based data. Web archiving for data collection and storage as well as the blended reading approach for analysing, offer promising possibilities for researchers to deal with these challenges. Therefore, this paper conducts an exemplary analysis: Based on data collected via an event-crawl, a blended reading approach will be used to analyse the role attributed to the European Election 2019 in online media coverage, using Spiegel-Online as an example. [R, abr.]
73.6465 REYES PASCUAL, Guillermo —
This article examines how geographical distance affects how political parties articulate regional identities at the subnational level. This is done by applying construal-level theory, hypothesizing that the further away a region is from the center, the more distinct and unique peripheral identities will tend to be framed by these political actors. Qualitatively analyzing regional party manifestos issued for the regional elections held during 1999-2015 in the Spanish regions of Castilla-La Mancha, Andalusia, and the Canary Islands, the results show that regional identities are formulated in a more distinct and unique way as distance from the center increases. [R]
73.6466 RITTER, Michael —
Absentee and mail voting were important ways of ballot casting during the coronavirus pandemic and the 2020 presidential election. Several studies have established that the impact of absentee and mail voting is shaped by the presence of other election laws and broader features of a state’s election administration. However, more study is needed to address whether and to what degree accessible versus restrictive features of a state’s election administration impact the ability of individuals to vote in these ways. Using the accessible voting framework and data from the 2018 and 2020 Catalist voter file as well as the 2012 to 2020 Cooperative Election Study, this study evaluates the impact of excuse required absentee, no-excuse absentee, permanent absentee, and universal mail voting laws on individual-level voting. In addition, this study evaluates whether state cure laws, voter identification laws, notary or witness signature requirements, and variations in United States Postal Service delivery times moderate the impacts of absentee and mail voting laws. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 73.6312]
73.6467 RIZAKIS, Miltiadis —
This article examines how the issue of terrorism has been framed by Marine Le Pen and Emmanuel Macron. Marine Le Pen has been eager to exploit these incidents since they fit neatly within her xenophobic and nationalist discourse. On the other hand, Emmanuel Macron seeks to transcend traditional political boundaries and foster unity. These different strategies in framing terrorism will be the focus of this article. In addition, the article will examine whether there are elements of populist contagion in Macron’s framing. The analysis is centred around two terrorist events that occurred in 2020: (1) Samuel Paty’s murder and (2) the Nice knife attack. The data were collected from the Twitter accounts of Le Pen and Macron. [R, abr.]
73.6468 RØED, Maiken —
This paper examines when parties listen to interest groups and adopt their input. Interest group information can help parties bolster their positions, and by taking their input into account, parties show that they are responsive to the groups’ interests which can increase their appeal to their constituents. Listening to interest groups can, however, also repel voters who disagree with the groups’ positions. This paper argues that party and issue-level characteristics affect whether the benefits of listening to interest groups exceed the costs. Examining more than 25,000 party-interest group observations on 88 Norwegian policy proposals and using a text reuse approach to measure interest group influence, the findings indicate that public salience, party issue emphasis, interest group coalitions, and government status affect parties’ propensity to listen. [R, abr.]
73.6469 ROJON, Sebastien, et al.—
Previous research suggests that Europeans want more experts in government, but which experts do they want and why? Using survey data collected in 15 European countries, this study compared citizens’ preferences for high-ranking civil servants, university professors, and business executives over traditional political actors (MPs and former ministers) as ministers in government. Overall, university professors were rated more positively than MPs or former ministers in almost all countries, whereas civil servants and business executives were only rated more positively than politicians in Poland, Italy, Spain, Greece, Ireland, and Belgium. While political distrust is a key predictor of preferring political outsiders, we also found that civil servants are not as appealing to politically distrusting individuals, depending on the country. [R, abr.]
73.6470 RONE, Julia —
Despite the growing literature on Brexit, specifically, and conflicts of sovereignty, more generally, there has been insufficient research on how the concept of sovereignty has been used in citizen campaigns and street protests across the United Kingdom — a form of ‘counter-democracy’ through which people attempted to oversee the post-referendum political process. Combining qualitative content analysis of campaign websites with a discourse-network analysis of media articles on Brexit protests, this article shows that claims to sovereignty were mobilised not only in conflicts between the United Kingdom and the European Union, but also in conflicts between different institutions within Britain itself. Both ‘Leavers’ and ‘Remainers’ appealed to popular and parliamentary sovereignty at different points in time, pragmatically adapting their framing according to changing circumstances but also as a result of a dynamic series of interactions with each other, including denying, keying and embracing their opponents’ frames. Crucially, conflicts around different institutionalisations of popular sovereignty did not demand system change, a rhetoric familiar from other protests of the 2010s such as Occupy Wall Street with its emphasis on ‘We are the 99%’. [R, abr.]
73.6471 ROSENFELD, Ariel ; SHAPIRO, Ehud ; TALMON, Nimrod —
Many democratic political parties hold primary elections,. However, the methods currently used for holding such primary elections may not be the most suitable, especially if some form of proportional ranking is desired. We compare different algorithmic methods for holding primaries (i.e., different aggregation methods for voters’ ballots) by evaluating the degree of proportional ranking that is achieved by each of them using real-world data. In particular, we compare six different algorithms by analyzing realworld data from a recent primary election conducted by the Israeli Democratic party. Technically, we analyze unique voter data and evaluate the proportionality achieved by means of cluster analysis, aiming at pinpointing the representation that is granted to different voter groups under each of the algorithmic methods considered. [R, abr.]
73.6472 RUDOLPH, Lukas, et al.—
The environmental implications of international trade appear to be associated with public backlash against trade liberalization and efforts at greening international trade. Because public support is essential to environmental and trade policy-making alike, we examine the trade–environment nexus from a public opinion perspective. We investigate whether negative attitudes toward trade are in fact fueled by concern over its environmental consequences. We argue that environmental concern affects how citizens evaluate the costs and benefits of trade, and that such evaluation is moderated by political ideology. The empirical analysis relies on a large representative survey and a population-based survey experiment in Switzerland, a small open economy. [R, abr.]
73.6473 RULLI, Mariana ; GALLINGER, Florencia —
The academic literature on women’s political participation has focused on access and its conditions and, political trajectory in legislative branches at the national level, whereas studies focused on sub-national levels have been more scarce have. This article contributes to the study of the personal and social attributes, the political-party membership and the previous public trajectory in terms of gender of the people who held the highest provincial executive positions in Argentina. The quantitative methodological strategy implemented — not only descriptive but also inferential — has helped to demonstrate associations and relationships between variables with statistical significance. The main findings indicate that there are no significant differences in terms of age but in the number of children and educational level. Regarding previous political trajectories, it is observed that women have mainly held seats in the legislative branches and men have occupied seats in the executive branches. [R]
73.6474 RULLO, Luigi ; NUNZIATA, Federica —
This article aims to retrace the main stages of the 2022 Italian presidential election through the messages spread within the Web environment. In particular, it investigates the digital communication on Facebook of the main political leaders and parties involved, as a privileged perspective from which to understand contemporary Italian politics. To achieve these objectives, the article is divided into three sections. First, it discusses the main challenges of presidential elections over the last twenty years, by observing how digital disruption has transformed their fundamental dynamics and political actors’ communication strategies. Second, it employs methodological approaches that are based on digital methods and content analysis to explore the digital discourse of both party leaders and their respective parties before, during and after the 2022 election. More specifically, it analyses how they used Facebook as a primary tool to inform and engage with both citizens and mainstream media, as well as to shape political bargaining. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 73.6107]
73.6475 RUSSO, Luana ; VEGETTI, Federico —
The 2022 Italian parliamentary elections were largely pictured, especially by the foreign press, as an alarming victory for the extreme right. In this article, we argue that though the 26% obtained by Brothers of Italy was surely an outstanding result, it does not automatically imply that the Italian electorate shifted further to the right in terms of its preferences and ideology. The evidence we present seems rather to suggest that this result is the consequence of Brothers of Italy’s electoral partners, the Lega and Forza Italia, losing their appeal among the centre right’s voters. This, along with an electoral law that favours bipolarity, and division among the remaining coalitions, led to an outstanding victory for the centre right (rightcentre?). [R] [See Abstr. 73.6297]
73.6476 RUTH-LOVELL, Saskia Pauline ; GRAHN, Sandra —
The phenomenon of populism and its relationship with modern democracy has gained considerable attention in recent years. This article aims at advancing our understanding of how populism affects different models of democracy and tests the proposed arguments empirically. Building on a large scholarly literature on populism and democracy, we take stock of existing arguments and theorize which democratic models may be affected by populism in a positive or negative way. Moreover, we move beyond the normative debate and analyse the effect of populism in power on different models of democracy empirically. We do so by merging data on populist governments in Europe and Latin America from 1995 until today with the Varieties of Democracy dataset, which enables us to capture the relationship between populism and different democratic models in these regions. Despite mixed-theoretical expectations, our results suggest a rather negative impact of populism on the electoral, liberal and deliberative models of democracy. [R]
73.6477 SAHIN, Selver B. —
This article challenges the “democratic backsliding” accounts of Turkey’s recent regime trajectory that are conceptually premised on a neo-Weberian understanding of the relationship between the state and society/markets. It uses a “modes of participation” (MOP) approach that is informed by a Gramscian theorization of the state-society complex. It is argued that Turkey’s neo-liberal capitalist development during the Justice and Development Party (AKP) era has not been conducive to allowing for the formation of cohesive alliances in support of liberal democratic representation. Instead, the country’s already oppressed and divided labour force has further been fragmented under the neo-liberal economic policy, while its middle and business classes have supported democracy only when it has been in their interest, and intellectuals have been co-opted. Hence, the way the AKP governs Turkey is not because of weak or ineffective state institutions. [R, abr.]
73.6478 SANDERS, Anna —
Political parties often seek to appeal to women voters through policy pledges. However, little is known about how – or whether – these policies influence women’s voting behavior. Drawing on focus groups conducted with women voters, I explore how women perceive, experience, and negotiate gendered policies in their voting behavior using the 2015 British General Election as a case study. Overall, I find that “class-based” economic policies pertaining to the sexual division of labor matter to women voters, whereas policies seeking to tackle discrimination against women (“gender status” policies) are comparatively less salient. Crucially, attitudes toward class-based policies differ by life-stage. Taken together, I argue that studies on gender and vote choice should devote greater attention to the electoral context in addition to socioeconomic factors. [R]
73.6479 SAVANI, Manu M. ; COLLIGNON, Sofia —
How do voters respond to candidates accused of sexual harassment? The literature on political scandals demonstrates that candidate characteristics, scandal type, and voter characteristics matter; as well as party affiliation. However, empirical evidence suggests that not all co-partisans react the same way. Why is this the case? Our study uses Schwartz’s (1996) theory of values to hypothesise that voters prioritising ‘universalism’ and ‘benevolence’ are less likely to vote for candidates accused of sexual harassment compared to voters who prioritise ‘self-enhancement’ values. Using an original, mixed methods, online survey experiment (n = 704), we show that American voters do become less favourable towards candidates linked to allegations of sexual harassment; but a sizeable minority would nevertheless vote for a co-partisan candidate accused of sexual harassment. Values are an important mechanism to explain this heterogeneity. Qualitative data corroborates our findings, and helps explain why sexual harassment allegations are not always a barrier to electoral success. [R]
73.6480 SCARROW, Susan E. ; WRIGHT, Jamie M. ; GAUJA, Anika —
Studies of party- and party-system stability have often explored the connection between the party-level property of Party Institutionalization (PI) and parties’ electoral performance and organizational longevity, yet scholars still have not agreed on a standard measure for this concept. This article argues that the length of party statutes could provide part of such a measure, specifically for the extent to which parties have become routinized (a key dimension of PI) through the formalization of their rules and practices. We validate the plausibility of this measure using data on 303 parties from 49 countries, demonstrating that party statute length varies systematically and in ways predicted by our knowledge of how party organizations reflect their institutional environments and the complexity of internal coalitions. [R, abr.]
73.6481 SCHMITT, Etienne B. —
Alsace is usually known in nationalism studies as the historical object of conflict between France and Germany. This peripheral region is rarely studied as a minority nation struggling for recognition and claiming autonomy. This article aims to conceptualize Alsatian nationalism and its renewed practices and representations amidst mobilization against the merger of Alsace into the Grand-Est. Alsatian nationalism is now at the crossroads of thwarting French hegemony, between a cosmopolitan autonomism that promotes Alsace as a transnational entity and a “new” nationalism that perceives Alsace as a nation with self-determination. [R]
73.6482 SCHMITT-BECK, Rüdiger ; NEUMANN, Manuel —
As deliberative democracy is gaining practical momentum, the question arises whether citizens’ attitudes toward everyday political talk are congruent with this ‘talk-centric’ vision of democratic governance. Drawing on a unique survey we examine how German citizens view the practice of discussing politics in everyday life, and what determines these attitudes. We find that only a minority appreciates talking about politics. To explain these views, we combine Fishbein and Ajzen’s Expectancy-Value Model of attitudes toward behaviors with perspectives from research on interpersonal communication. Individuals’ interest in politics emerges as the only relevant political disposition for attitudes toward everyday political talk. Its impact is surpassed and conditioned by conflict orientations and other enduring psychological dispositions, as well as contextual circumstances like the closeness of social ties and the amount of disagreement experienced during conversations. The beneficial effect of political interest dwindles under adverse interpersonal conditions. The social dimension of everyday political talk thus appears to outweigh its political dimension. [R]
73.6483 SCHNAUDT, Christian —
This study investigates whether and how experiences of winning and losing at the ballot box shape voters’ views about the integrity of the electoral process in Germany’s mixed-member proportional system. Relying on comprehensive data from the German Longitudinal Election Study (GLES) 2021, the analysis provides evidence for a consistent winner-loser gap in voters’ electoral-integrity perceptions, with electoral losers evaluating the electoral process systematically more negative than electoral winners. Moreover, the analysis shows that the winner-loser gap is particularly pronounced for voters who lost in two consecutive federal elections (‘repeated losers’) as well as for those who suffered electoral defeat with both their list and district votes (‘double losers’). These findings provide novel insights on how voters in mixed-member proportional systems cope with winning and losing at the ballot box, highlighting that electoral losers place (part of) the blame for their electoral defeat on the electoral process and procedures as such. In addition, the findings point to the relevance of specific features of electoral systems in shaping winner-loser gaps in electoral-integrity beliefs. [R]
73.6484 SCHRAFF, Dominik ; VERGIOGLOU, Ioannis ; DEMIRCI, Buket Buse —
Datasets on subnational election results in Europe frequently do not match with regional statistics available for cross-national research, mainly because territorial statistical units change over time and do not map onto the national electoral districts. This hinders consistent comparative research across time. This research note introduces EU-NED, a new dataset on subnational election data that covers national and European parliamentary elections for European countries over the past 30 years. EU-NED’s major contribution is that it provides election results on disaggregated levels of the statistical territorial units used by Eurostat with an unprecedented consistency and temporospatial scope. Moreover, EU-NED is integrated with the Party Facts platform, allowing for a seamless integration of party-level data. [R, abr.]
73.6485 SCHUBIGER, Livia Isabella —
What effect does state violence have on the cohesiveness and fragmentation of insurgent organizations? This article develops a theory of how state violence against civilians affects insurgent cohesion and fragmentation in civil war. It argues that the state-led collective targeting of an armed group’s alleged civilian constituency increases the probability of insurgent fragmentation, defined as the process through which insurgent organizations split into distinct entities, each with its own social composition, goals, and leadership. This effect is driven by the interaction of several mechanisms at the individual, group, and organizational levels: state-led collective targeting enlarges the supply of fresh recruits, strengthens the bonds between immediate group members (interpersonal cohesion), and disrupts intra-organizational coordination, strategic unity, and institutional arrangements that underpin the commitment of individual fighters to the organization as a whole (ideological cohesion). [R, abr.]
73.6486 SCHÜRMANN, Lennart ; STIER, Sebastian —
MPs are elected via two different tiers in mixed-member electoral systems — as winners of a seat in a constituency or as party candidates under proportional rules. While previous research has identified important consequences of this “mandate divide” in parliaments, questions remain how this institutional setup affects MPs’ political behavior in other arenas. Analyzing more than one million social media posts, this article investigates regional representation in the online communication of German MPs. The results show that MPs elected under a direct mandate refer approximately twice as often to their constituencies by using regionalized wording and geographic references than MPs elected under the proportional tier. [R, abr.]
73.6487 SCONFIENZA, Umberto ; DURAND, Frédéric —
The paper aims at giving an overview of the debate on nuclear energy in France during the last Presidential campaign (spring 2022) while offering a methodological contribution. It does so by employing Discourse Network Analysis to show which policy actors partake in the debate and how they are related at the discursive level. Statements have been collected from both Twitter and the newspapers about the role of nuclear energy in France’s energy mix, which has been a key element in the energy debate. Methodologically, a comparison of the discourse-actor networks emerging from the two methods of collection — Twitter and the newspapers — is provided. The results reveal the existence of two well-defined coalitions of pro- and anti-nuclear actors; few convergences between the two coalitions and minor differences between the two media concerning the actors in the pro-and anti-nuclear coalitions and the discourses. [R, abr.]
73.6488 SEATON, Katherine ; WU, H. Denis —
This study investigates emotions conveyed in US presidential speeches and media coverage regarding the Iraq War and the Iran nuclear deal during 2003 and 2015. The researchers gathered and examined news stories about the two policies, all official speeches delivered by George W. Bush and Barack Obama, and opinion polls conducted during the respective sixmonth period in those two years. Nine discrete emotions were coded to capture the valence and volume in the speeches and news media content. The study finds that emotions appear more frequently in the Iraq discourse than in the Iran counterpart. President Bush used more negative emotions while President Obama employed more positive emotions. Emotion in the media coverage is constant and stable across the two policy periods; yet negative emotions are more prevalent than positive counterparts in the media despite distinct foreign policies. [R, abr.]
73.6489 SEEBERG, Henrik Bech —
An important part of political parties’ competition for votes is the extent to which parties avoid or engage the issues that rival parties talk about. Despite a large literature on this topic, it remains largely unknown when parties engage. Drawing on research on political attention allocation and party behaviour, this study argues that societal problems are a central source of issue engagement: The engagement is due to a pressure to not ignore electorally important problems. The analysis shows that issue engagement emerges because parties address the same issues in a negative development. The argument is tested across 16 issue areas through the collection and coding of 5523 press releases from seven parties in Denmark at a quarterly level from 2004 to 2017. [R, abr.]
73.6490 SEJAN, Sakhawat Sajjat —
Denying the identity of a race is the step towards committing the crime of genocide, which may also result in ethnic cleansing. This article has tried to strategically depict the nexus between the identity denial and ethnic cleansing of Rohingyas. From the very inception to now, the gradual development of ignoring the identity of Rohingyas is evident to deny their rights. Also, Buddhist extremism has outnumbered the demands of Rohingya as an ethnicity among 144 races of Myanmar. Then, it has claimed the proposition that might become applicable for their internal recognition, which is ‘right to internal self-determination’. This article also discusses the development of the Gambia versus Myanmar case, which may contribute to the resurrection of Rohingya identity within the lands of Myanmar. Internal recognition of the Rohingyas under the legal instruments of Myanmar will restore their fundamental rights along with their political and social recognition. [R]
73.6491 SELVIK, Lisa-Marie ; DUPUY, Kendra —
Public opinion polls conducted over the past five years point to a downward trend in African citizens’ support for civil society and media freedoms. This is despite the flourishing of civil society and media actors as well as the expansion of democracy on the continent in the post-Cold War period. What explains this downward trend in public support? We use cross-national polling data from the Afrobarometer survey to examine the decline in public support for freedoms of association and media between 2011 and 2018 in the African context, a continent that has experienced decades of democratization waves and pressure. Using a multilevel statistical modelling approach, we analyse the influence of government repression of civil society and media actors on citizen support for enhanced government control over freedoms of association and the media. Our study shows that the government’s repressive actions against civil society and media actors increases the probability that citizens will support control over association and media freedoms. [R, abr.]
73.6492 SENNINGER, Roman ; BISCHOF, Daniel —
In light of important political events that go beyond the nation state (e.g., migration, climate change, and the coronavirus pandemic), domestic politicians are increasingly pressured to scrutinize and speak out on European policy-making. This creates a potential trade-off between allocating effort to domestic and supranational affairs, respectively. We examine how citizens perceive legislator involvement in EU politics with a pre-registered conjoint experiment in Germany. Our results show that Members of Parliament (MPs) are not disadvantaged when allocating effort to European affairs as compared to local and national affairs. In addition, voters tend to prefer MPs who engage in EU policy reform over those who do not. As demand for legislator involvement in European politics is on the rise, we provide empirical evidence that MPs can fulfill this demand without being disadvantaged by the electorate. [R]
73.6493 SERANI, Danilo —
The spread of the coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in 2020 was the impetus for an exogenous shock. In addition to the disruption brought on by the spread of COVID-19, conspiracy theories flourished on many aspects of the disease. However, the association between belief in conspiracy theories and voting behaviour has not been studied sufficiently, especially in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. This paper investigates the association between a belief in conspiracy theories and an intention to vote for populist parties (PPs). This association is analysed in a case study of Italian voters, where PPs can be found in the government and in the opposition. By conducting a cross-sectional analysis during the third wave of panel data fielded in December 2020, this article shows that individuals who have anti-vax attitudes and who also have a higher propensity to believe in conspiracy theories are more likely to vote for PPs, although it is worth considering the roles PPs play in either the government or in the opposition. [R]
73.6494 SEVI, Semra —
Do incumbents have an electoral advantage and if so, do these advantages differ across gender? In this study, I estimate the electoral advantages enjoyed by incumbents in 10 Canadian federal elections, across 3059 ridings, from 1990 to 2021. Using a regression discontinuity design, I compare men and women who have very narrowly won or lost elections on three different indicators: propensity to run again, probability of winning the next election, and vote share. I find that women incumbents are just as likely to run again in subsequent elections as men incumbents. However, women who lose an election appear to be more likely to quit politics compared to men who lose an election. I do not find clear incumbency effects for probability of winning at the next election and vote-share. [R]
73.6495 SHANKAR, Karthik H. —
Are the voter preferences clearly heard in a plurality voting system? Alternate voting schemes wherein the voters rank their choices instead of just voting for their first preference certainly capture the voter preferences in a richer format, but they do not explicitly capture the negative preferences. Here we propose a voting scheme that blends negative voting within a cumulative voting system. In this scheme, we can simultaneously decipher the popularity as well as the polarity of each candidate contesting in the election, giving us a two dimensional view of the candidates. An incentive structure can be built into voting system whereby we can penalize the candidates for their polarity and discourage polarizing campaign rhetorics. Theoretically, this could help depolarize the heated political environment and level the playing field for third party candidates. [R]
73.6496 SHARMA, Chetna —
This article is an attempt to comprehend how document-based state policies open new fault lines and contradictions when it comes to citizenship claims. The study of the National Register of Citizens (NRC) in Assam indicates that any exercise in abstract documentation not only becomes exclusionary in nature but also fails in its purpose. The reliance on identity documents, as a tool of state power and identification, demonstrates the incoherent character of state machinery while also having overpoweringly humiliating effects when identity documents are nullified, jeopardizing any citizens’ legal status. [R]
73.6497 SHCHERBAK, Andrey —
Russian politics is often described as having taken a “conservative turn” since the start of Putin’s third term. This refers to the rise in the political influence of the Russian Orthodox Church, the ideological shift to traditional values, and the growth of authoritarianism. This study aims to explore ordinary Russians’ commitment to this conservatism using data from European Social Survey, 2010-2018. I suggest a four-factor model for measuring popular conservatism in Russia: Loyalism, Conformity, Religiosity, and Traditionalism/Security. The study reveals a surge in conservative attitudes in 2014-2016 and a steady decline thereafter. [R] [See Abstr. 73.6396]
73.6498 SHELLEY, Baskouda S. K. —
This paper studies how the Tokombéré Youth Centre, a secular place attached to the Roman Catholic Church, has led to the political formation of young people in Tokombéré, northern Cameroon. This is a place of socialisation that grew from the missionaries’ work, and which has politically guided youth since 1974 through an awakening based on empowerment and self-reliance. The Centre, with its members structured within a “government,” has helped foster the values of citizenship through activities like Youth Weeks, Kirditude days, amateur journalistic writing in the newspaper Kudumbar, and film screenings. This substitution for the state has sometimes been a source of conflict, sometimes of co-existence. [R]
73.6499 SHUTES, Isabel —
In high-income countries, both single parents and migrants face elevated risks of living in poverty, but research has paid little attention to the intersection of single parent and migrant status. I examine the ways in which immigration policies make migrants dependent either on the labor market or on their families as a spouse or partner and how these dependencies present risks to migrant women who are single parents. I draw on qualitative data on migrant women’s experiences in the first five years after migration to the UK, which include their transitions to single parenthood, to explore how their legal status affects the risks that they experience. Those risks concern exclusion from access to social protection and permanent legal residence, where access is contingent on the ability to maintain a relationship to the market as a worker or to the family through marriage or a stable partnership. [R] [See Abstr. 73.6178]
73.6500 SILAGADZE, Nanuli, et al.—
While much research has been devoted to the effects of inequality on political participation, little attention has been paid to how different kinds of subjective perceptions of social inequality affect citizens’ political behaviour. This is important since these perceptions shape the message that reaches political decision-makers when addressing concerns over social inequalities. This article differentiates between sociotropic and egocentric perceptions of social inequality and explores to what extent individuals’ perceptions of such inequality affect engagement in institutionalized and non-institutionalized political participation between elections. Engagement was evaluated with a survey among a segment of the Finnish population (n = 1673). Our results indicate that citizens with sociotropic concerns are more likely to get involved in both institutionalized and non-institutionalized forms of political participation, whereas egocentric perceptions have less of an impact. [R, abr.]
73.6501 SILVA, Thiago N. ; MEDINA, Alejandro —
Studies on policy monitoring and ministerial survival within coalition governments are usually conducted separately. We bring these topics together and argue that the strategy of coalition partners to oversee the implementation of one another’s policies has surprising consequences on the duration of office-holding ministers. Our main theoretical insight suggests that the degree to which ministers behave as faithful agents of the government depends on their expectations about their partners’ monitoring behavior, such that when they expect to be under high scrutiny, they moderate their drifting behavior. We demonstrate that: (1) greater policy monitoring by coalition partners is observed under more ideologically heterogeneous cabinets, and (2) more frequent policy-monitoring efforts by coalition partners lead to a lower ministerial replacement within the government term. [R, abr.]
73.6502 SMEETS, Sandrino ; BEACH, Derek —
This article reconstructs the coming about of the 750 billion EU Covid Recovery Fund. We provide an embedded process-tracing analysis of the dynamics from mid-March 2020, when the idea of ‘Corona-bonds’ was parachuted onto the Heads’ Agenda, up until the ‘historic’ deal on the Multiannual Financial Framework and Recovery Fund of 21 July. Where most media accounts and scholarly assessments focus on the high-level deal making between political leaders, we trace the proceedings inside the EU’s institutional machinery, which produced the solutions and laid out the groundwork for a deal. The reconstruction assesses the role and influence of the EU institutions — the European Commission in particular — in producing this major step. We show that the process was characterized by a handicapped European Council, which hampered the ability of member states to oversee and control developments. [R, abr.]
73.6503 SNAGOVSKY, Feodor ; TAFLAGA, Marija ; KERBY, Matthew —
Political advising is an increasingly important stepping-stone for a parliamentary career in many advanced democracies. Not only does this trend inform our understanding of political parties and careers, there is reason to think former advisors may have distinct attitudes compared to other types of elected officials. Using elite survey data from 42 elections in 21 countries, this study asks whether former political advisers approach representation differently than candidates with other pre-legislative experience. We find that they do. In particular, former advisors are more willing to prioritize their party’s preferences over their constituents’ preferences, and favor their own convictions over their constituents’ priorities. These findings demonstrate that former advisors have a more party-centric approach to representation, consistent with the “loyal partisan” archetype. [R, abr.]
73.6504 SOARE, Sorina ; TUFIȘ, Claudiu D. —
This article analyses and explains the rapid electoral success of an emergent populist radical right party in Romania — the Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). AUR’s definition of ‘a transnational people’ relates to a multi-layered community — native Romanians within Romania, coethnic communities in neighbouring countries, and Romanians living and working abroa — hat create, together, a Romanianness in need of representation, and preservation. By focusing on AUR’s definition of ‘the people’ and on (trans)national mobilization, we unwrap a new dimension of populism which refers to broader fields of connectedness across borders in which bottom-up and top-down dynamics co-exist, acting as rhetorical and operational openings for the party’s development and success in the homeland arena. [R] [See Abstr. 73.6536]
73.6505 SOLAIMAN, Barry —
This article argues that the transparency regime regulating the activities of lobbyists in the UK and the devolved administrations fails to address the core problems of political lobbying and should be replaced. This is particularly important following Brexit because the regulatory landscape will change significantly in the years to come. The Transparency of Lobbying, Non-Party Campaigning and Trade Union Administration Act 2014 establishes a registry-based system of regulating lobbyists seeking to communicate with the government in Westminster. The Scotland (Lobbying) Act 2016 establishes a similar system, with calls for a lobbying register in Wales also growing. Analyses of existing laws reveal several flaws with those registry-based systems resulting in inadequate levels of transparency. To remedy the shortfall and to get transparency right, this article [proposes] changes. [R, abr.]
73.6506 SOMBATPOONSIRI, Janjira —
This article examines the narratives that underpin the activism of Buddhist nationalist movements in Thailand. In arguing that these movements represent an emerging strand of Thai nationalism — Buddhist majoritarian nationalism — the focus is on three discursive components that shape the contours of the movements’ narratives. The first component regards a twoprong threat against Buddhism: political elites subservient to the Muslim minority and the latter’s growing influence. Second, averting these threats necessitates a new form of national consciousness that places Buddhism and Buddhists as the country’s majority at the centre of national identity. Third, this ideological position accompanies the movements’ aspiration to further conflate religion and polity. [R, abr.]
73.6507 SONG, Jay —
This article examines the political representation of Asian minorities in Australia. Utilising the case studies of the 2018 Victorian State Election and the 2019 Federal Election, it analyses how Asian candidates’ migratory, ethnic and politico-economic backgrounds shaped their pathways to politics. Based on publicly available data on Asian-heritage politicians and interviews with Asian Australians involving in party politics, the study finds both underlying challenges and emerging opportunities that Asian candidates continue to experience within Australia’s liberal nationalist multiculturalism. The study finds that institutional barriers, cultural fitness and Australia’s relations with Asian neighbours are key factors that contribute to the changing nature of Asian Australian political representation. Finally, it argues that while Australia’s migration programs have invited the skilled youth from Asia, the country’s historical White Australia policy and modern suspicion of ‘silent invasion’ still present challenges for Asian candidates in politics. [R]
73.6508 STEINER, Nils D. ; LANDWEHR, Claudia —
The June 2016 Brexit referendum sent international shock waves, possibly causing adjustments in public opinion not only in the UK, but also abroad. We suggest that these adjustments went beyond substantive attitudes on European integration and included procedural preferences towards direct democracy. Drawing on the insight that support for direct democracy can be instrumentally motivated, we argue that the outcome of the Brexit referendum led (politically informed) individuals to update their support for referendums based on their views towards European integration. Using panel data from Germany, we find that those in favour of European integration, especially those with high political involvement, turned more sceptical of the introduction of referendums in the aftermath of the Brexit referendum. Our study contributes to the understanding of preferences for direct democracy and documents a remarkable case of how — seemingly basic — procedural preferences can, in today’s internationalized information environment, be shaped by high-profile events abroad. [R]
73.6509 STEWART, Iain —
This article examines the history of the French press that was based in London during the Second World War, focusing on its contribution to political debates of and about French exile, its relationship to the British government and its role in shaping inter-Allied relations. The article begins by outlining the development of British policy towards the foreign press based in London before examining three publications: the left-leaning daily France, the Gaullist weekly La Marseillaise and the monthly cultural and political periodical La France libre. By drawing on the contents of these papers alongside a variety of French, British and American archival material, the article shows that while the French press in London had a limited readership, it exercised significant influence among political elites either side of the Atlantic during the war and helped shape the terms of French debates over the meaning of Gaullism well into the post-Second World War period. [R]
73.6510 STEWART, Megan A. —
What explains the emergence of leftist rebel groups? I provide one explanation for their origins in colonized and recently decolonized countries during the Cold War. In this context, I argue that imperial assimilatory education programs terminating in the metropole facilitated the rise of a wouldbe rebel leadership cadre committed to leftist ideas and connected to leftist activists, and this cadre ultimately made the formation of a leftist rebel group more likely. Relying on archival and primary materials, I focus on variation in educational experiences of rebel leaders in Eritrea’s Independence War to qualitatively evaluate different explanations for the formation of groups with different ideologies. I probe generalizability quantitatively with a global sample of civil wars, as well as qualitatively with an overview of cases colonized by Portugal using archival data from three countries. [R]
73.6511 STRIJBIS, Oliver —
This article demonstrates that deindustrialization increases ethnonational mobilization. We maintain that levels of mobilization of ethnonational movements are to an important extent a residual to the class cleavage, that is, to the degree the class conflict dominates political competition. Since in the context of Western Europe industrialism is the main force behind the class cleavage, deindustrialization weakens this cleavage and allows instead for mobilization along ethnonational divisions. In order to empirically test our argument, we analyze levels of electoral mobilization of ethnonational party blocs among 15 Western European minorities between 1918 and 2018. Our analysis clearly reveals that levels of industrialization are negatively related to ethnonational mobilization. However, this is only true for regions with historically high levels of industrialization and if the ethnonational movement is unified. [R, abr.]
73.6512 SUITER, Jane —
Recent years have seen a proliferation of experiments in deliberative democracy, with much focus on the internal workings and throughput legitimacy of such innovations as mini-publics. The research on the links between such mini-publics and the public is still in its infancy and there is a strong debate around the legitimacy of extending the outcomes of smallscale deliberation to the public. This Special Issue addresses the questions of legitimacy mainly from two broad perspectives; the input and the output legitimacy while some papers provide insights on throughput legitimacy as well. Input refers to the representativeness of participants from demographic, attitudinal and intersectional points of view. Output refers to whether the mini-public outputs reflect what the broader electorate would think and how representatives and policymakers deal with their outputs. The papers provide both theoretical and empirical discussion on participants’ representativeness in mini-publics and politicians’ potential involvement as well as issues of the whole process and how citizens perceive the legitimacy of mini-publics. [R, abr.] [Introduction to a thematic issue. See Abstr. 73.6187, 6259, 6277, 6460, 6548]
73.6513 SUTTMANN-LEA, Mara ; MERIVAKI, Thessalia —
In this article, we assess whether voters who live in states where state election officials (EOs) invested in voter education have higher levels of confidence in vote counting. We argue state investment in voter education strengthens voter confidence by improving voter experiences and creating a culture of voter education, both of which facilitate transparency in elections. We measure state election official investment in voter education during the 2020 US Presidential election by merging a unique dataset of EO social media communications during the last months of the 2020 election cycle with various election administration data sources. We find EO use of Facebook bolsters confidence in vote counting at the personal, local, and state level. Importantly, voters predisposed to question election integrity living in these states — those highly skeptical about the occurrence of fraud and who supported Donald Trump in 2016 — express higher confidence at the personal, local, and state level in states where EOs were active on Facebook in 2020. Findings are mixed for measures of resource investment in voter education through federal and private funding. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 73.6312]
73.6514 SWEET-CUSHMAN, Jennie, et al.—
In contemporary discourse, context matters for how people converse with one another about political topics. Discussion may occur face-to-face or online, topics of conversation may be controversial or less so, and gender dynamics may vary. We argue that men and women are affected differently by various contextual discussion factors. We employ a unique quasiexperiment that varies these factors and uses discourse analysis to examine patterns of gendered agreement and disagreement across seven exhaustive categories of response. These factors affect the likelihood of agreement by women and men, though gender-based differences are not dramatic. We do, however, find conditions that prompt men to be less agreeable than women. We also identify seven discrete rhetorical approaches to expressing agreement or disagreement in political discussion. Of these, three show evidence of gender-based patterns of usage. These findings have implications for how men and women use agreement strategies to cope with potential divisiveness in political discussion. [R]
73.6515 SYUKRI, Muhammad —
This article shows how the Indonesian new developmental state addresses gender equality and women’s empowerment in its effort to institutionalise a participatory approach in the state bureaucracy. It pays attention to the way the new developmental ideology has shaped participatory governance policy as an instrument of village development instead of deepening democracy and reworking the structure of traditional gender relations. Utilising qualitative data and a longitudinal monitoring study, this article argues that the new policy of participatory village governance has a narrow focus on village economy and infrastructure and ignores more sensitive issues, such as transforming the traditional gender structures. [R]
73.6516 TAJALI, Mona —
This article analyzes women’s substantive representation in Iran to highlight the opportunities and obstacles facing women critical actors when a critical mass of women in politics is absent. Through a case study of progressive women policy makers of the Hassan Rouhani era, this research demonstrates that despite an undemocratic political context dominated by conservative gender mandates, the presence of three interrelated factors contribute to the rise of women critical actors in Iranian formal politics: electoral support and grassroots mobilization around women’s rights, willingness of elites to adopt measures toward greater inclusion of women in politics, and occasional openings in Iran’s fragmented political context that facilitate the nomination and election of women who are likely to advocate for women’s rights. However, the absence of these conditions, as observed during the 2020 parliamentary elections, leads to the marginalization of such critical actors, resulting in limited attention to women’s rights in key institutions. [R]
73.6517 TAPPIN, Ben M. ; HEWITT, Luke B. —
Perhaps hundreds of survey experiments have shown that political party cues influence people’s policy opinions. However, we know little about the persistence of this influence: is it a transient priming effect, dissipating moments after the survey is over, or does influence persist for longer, indicating learning? We report the results of a panel survey experiment in which US adults were randomly exposed to party cues on five contemporary US policy issues in an initial survey and gave their opinions. A followup survey 3 days later polled their opinions again. We find that the influence of the party cues persists at ∼ 50% its original magnitude at followup. Notably, our design rules out that people simply remembered how they previously answered. Our findings have implications for understanding the scope and mechanism of party cue influence as it occurs in the real world and provide a benchmark for future research on this topic. [R]
73.6518 TAYLOR, Zack, et al.—
We introduce new data resources to enable spatial and nonspatial research on Canadian elections, electoral history and political geography. These include a comprehensive set of distinct identification codes for every federal electoral district in Canada from 1867 to the present, a complete set of digital boundary files for these electoral districts, historical census data aggregated to federal electoral districts, and tools to connect our district identification codes to federal election results. After describing the construction and content of these new resources, we provide an example of their use in a comparative-historical analysis of district compactness in Canada and the United States. We find that, in contrast to the United States, postwar institutional changes to district boundary-drawing processes had little effect on district compactness in Canada. [R]
73.6519 TELLA, Oluwaseun —
The global anti-Nigerian sentiment that has engendered the state’s image crisis cannot be denied. This has circumscribed Abuja’s capacity to effectively wield its soft power in Africa and beyond. While successive Nigerian governments have striven to improve the country’s battered image through various initiatives, the state’s image remains negative. There can be no doubt that the diaspora contributes to this image crisis through the activities of Nigerian criminal networks abroad such as drug and human trafficking and advance fee fraud. However, the diaspora has also been critical in counteracting these negative perceptions and so this article examines how the Nigerian diaspora has contributed to soft power by challenging anti-Nigerian sentiment, promoted Nigerian culture, provided remittances, and given technical assistance through the Technical Aid Corps (TAC) scheme. [R]
73.6520 THIERS, Consuelo ; WEHNER, Leslie —
This article introduces an analytical framework to trace and compare leaders’ different types of behaviours to the health crisis posed by COVID-19, following the analytical benefits of Leadership Trait Analysis. It examines Boris Johnson’s and Nicola Sturgeon’s diverging initial responses to the pandemic’s onset. We employ the Leadership Trait Analysis to shed light on three main differences in their respective leadership styles: risk-proneness versus risk-aversion; flexibility versus rigidity and rule advocacy versus rule ambivalence. Crises are one of the more fruitful situations in which to study leaders as their personal characteristics become central to the decision-making process. Thus, we employ an agent-centred and political psychology approach to analyse leaders’ behaviour and make sense of their divergent management styles. The results show that the differences between these leaders’ approaches to handling this global health crisis can be partly explained by their level of openness to information and their task versus relationship focus. [R] [first of a series of articles on "The global politics of the Covid-19 pandemic". See also Abstr. 73.5970, 6719]
73.6521 THOMSEN, Mette Kjaergaard ; OPSTRUP, Niels —
Prior research has shown that public participation initiatives may have positive effects on how participating citizens view government. However, little is known about whether and how priming citizens to think about such initiatives influences the view of government among the larger public. Using a survey experiment, we find that the effect of priming citizens to think of a public participation initiative that includes a small group of citizens on their view of government is conditional on how proximate the service, which the initiative resolves around, is to citizens. Notably, across outcome measures we a find a negative priming effect among those for which the service is not proximate. These results are highly important, as they suggest that among the larger public, public participation initiatives — that involve few citizens — may have mixed results on the view of government. [R, abr.]
73.6522 TIMONEDA, Joan C. ; VALLEJO VERA, Sebastián —
How does the coordination strategy of interest groups change during a crisis? Shocks reduce an economy’s resource pool and increase the competition for what is available. Interest groups participate in the policy-making process by lobbying legislators. In times of crisis, we argue, interest groups lobbying Congress coordinate in cohesive industry-wide communities led by key actors. Rather than lobbying for narrow policy privileges, interest groups seek to support legislation that is most beneficial to their community. To study the cooperative behaviour of interest groups we build an original network dataset based on committee participation in the Ecuadorian Congress between 1996 and 2015. We present evidence of increasingly homophilic industry networks in times of crisis, with umbrella organisations taking the role of hubs. We find that ‘lone wolf’ strategies, prevalent during an economic expansion, are less prevalent during a crisis. [R]
73.6523 TIRADO CASTRO, Alejandro —
During the Great Recession, European democracies underwent major political changes, from the spread of institutional discontent to the rise of radical populist parties. The erosion of democratic satisfaction in EU member states after the exogenous shock of the economic crisis is a significant phenomenon that requires innovative analysis and explanation. This article develops a new conceptual and empirical framework that examines how democracies are affected by exogenous shocks and the determinants of resilient democracies. The study explores the notion of democratic resilience, conceptualized as democratic resilience as the system characteristics which successfully adapt to or overcome democratic delegitimization processes after a shock. The analysis provides a classification of democracies by trajectory, distinguishing between preventive, recovered, and damaged democracies, and identifies which political characteristics have successfully increased or decreased democratic resilience. [R, abr.]
73.6524 TITELMAN, Noam —
We know from election studies which demographic characteristics best predict vote choice, but we know far less about how citizens perceive their similarity to one another in terms of these characteristics. Previous research suggests that such perceptions may be crucial for the politicization of social identities and the emergence of political identities. I present results from a novel measurement strategy where respondents are presented with the profiles of two fellow citizens, including several demographic attributes. Respondents are asked which of the two they perceive themselves to have more in common with in terms of politics. Respondents’ implicit trade-off of different demographic similarities allows me to measure the relative strength of their perceived political similarities. I find an important role for shared ethnicity, noticeably surpassing shared social class, age and education. Finally, I find that shared ethnicity receives substantially more weight among 2017 Conservative and 2016 Leave voters than among Labour and Remain voters. [R]
73.6525 TITELMAN, Noam ; LAUDERDALE, Benjamin E. —
How well do citizens understand the associations between social groups and political divisions in their societies? Previous research has indicated systematic biases in how the demographic composition of party supporters are perceived, but this need not imply that citizens misperceive the likely voting behavior of specific individuals. We report results from two experiments where subjects were provided with randomly selected demographic profiles of respondents to the 2017 British Election Study (BES) and then asked to assess either (1) which party that individual was likely to have voted for in the 2017 UK election or (2) whether that individual was likely to have voted Leave or Remain in the 2016 UK referendum on EU membership. We find that, despite substantial overconfidence in individual responses, on average citizens’ guesses broadly reflect the actual distribution of groups supporting the parties and referendum positions. [R]
73.6526 TOMASI, Arduino —
If a transfers policy is programmatic (it is transparent and nonmanipulable), is it irrelevant for politicians’ electoral fortunes? I show that the answer is negative using a political agency model with symmetric uncertainty. In my setup, an incumbent can allocate a budget to public goods and transfers. While the payoffs from transfers tend to be permanent, the payoffs from public good provision tend to depend on the incumbent’s competence. When the incumbent increases the budget to public goods, two effects arise: his performance in office today reveals more information about his identity (an informativeness effect) and voters’ anticipation of narrow transfers tomorrow increases the salience of political selection (a stakes effect). I show how the incumbent strategically takes into account these two effects in view of maximizing his electoral fortunes. [R, abr.]
73.6527 TOMKINS, Sabina, et al.—
A potential voter must incur a number of costs in order to successfully cast an in-person ballot, including the costs associated with identifying and traveling to a polling place. In order to investigate how these costs affect voter turnout, we introduce two quasi-experimental designs that can be used to study how the political participation of registered voters is affected by differences in the relative distance that registrants must travel to their assigned Election Day polling place and whether their polling place remains at the same location as in a previous election. Our designs make comparisons of registrants who live on the same residential block, but are assigned to vote at different polling places. We find that living farther from a polling place and being assigned to a new polling place reduce in-person Election Day voting, but that registrants largely offset for this by casting more early in-person and mail ballots. [R]
73.6528 TØRAASEN, Marianne —
Although women’s representation in Haiti is generally very low, the number of women judges has increased since the demise of authoritarianism and violent conflict in the 1990s. This case study explores why. I find that “gender-neutral” judicial reforms aimed at strengthening the judiciary have done more for women’s judicial representation than explicitly gender-targeted policies, which still lack implementation. Donor-supported reforms have introduced more merit-based and transparent appointment procedures for magistrates (judges and public prosecutors) based on competitive examinations. This has helped women circumvent the largely male power networks that previously excluded them from the judiciary. The judiciary remains understudied in the scholarship on women’s access to decision-making in fragile and conflict-affected societies; this article contributes to this emerging literature. [R]
73.6529 TRÄGER, Hendrik —
In the 2021 federal election, there were significant shifts in the direct mandates. The article therefore examines the conditions under which constituencies could be defended. It evaluates for all 299 constituencies how ‘safe’ they were considered to be before the election and whether incumbents ran again. There are clear incumbency effects and federal trend effects for each party, especially in contested regions. There are also differences between East and West Germany and depending on the settlement structure of the constituencies. A candidate quotient is used to operationalize the traction of individual persons in the fight for direct mandates. [R, trad.]
73.6530 TRAN Mai Van —
What accounts for the survival and long-term participation of activists in contentious movements under repression? I argue for the role of an important yet oft-neglected factor: protective support by civilian bystanders. I propose that, mainly motivated by victim-oriented sympathy, bystanders engage in high-risk protection that helps activists to escape crackdowns and bolsters their dedication to the movement. To test my theoretical claims, I examine hard cases for activist survival at the height of state violence during military rule in Myanmar between 1988 and 2010, with an original qualitative data set consisting of oral history interviews and written accounts by more than 100 protest observers and former pro-democracy activists. The data set presents an unprecedented number of voices from the average, non-contentious general public, which are mostly missing in existing research on social movements. This approach generates a fresh perspective to better understand opportunities and constraints around movement entrepreneurs in hostile environments. [R]
73.6531 TROUNSTINE, Jessica ; GOLDMAN-MELLOR, Sidra —
Segregation has been linked to unequal life chances. Individuals from marginalized communities experience more crime, higher levels of poverty, poorer health, and less civic engagement. In addition, segregated metropolitan regions have been found to display inequality in access to basic services. This article builds on these findings by linking segregation to infection and deaths from COVID-19. Using census data matched to COVID infection and death statistics at the county level, this article offers a theoretical basis for the researchers’ choice of segregation measures and predictions for different racial groups. It analyzes the relationship between two dimensions of segregation — racial isolation and racial unevenness — and COVID outcomes for different racial and ethnic groups. In counties where Black and Latino residents lived in more racially isolated neighborhoods, they were much more likely to contract COVID-19. This pattern was exacerbated in counties with a high proportion of frontline workers. In addition, racial segregation increased COVID-19 death rates for Black, Latino, and white residents. [R, abr.]
73.6532 TURCU, Anca —
Populist parties — which typically denounce migrants, globalization, and policy outcomes appreciated by emigrants, and which in turn typically make few efforts to persuade or mobilize expatriate citizens — are likely to see lower vote-shares among those voting from abroad. Legislative election results from fifty countries worldwide confirm the hypothesis that more populist parties tend to receive lower shares of out-of-country than of in-country votes: low-populism parties receive roughly the same vote share abroad as they do domestically, while high-populism parties on average receive a third less of the diaspora vote than they do of the domestic vote. [R]
73.6533 UFEL, Wojciech —
This article presents conclusions from the observation of the First Citizens’ Assembly or-ganized in Wrocław, Poland, in 2020. The paper starts with placing the panel within the most recent developments in the democratic theory followed by an empirical case study based on covert non-participant observation, document analysis, and personal interviews. In conclusion, the paper shows that while citizens’ assembly is a promising method for engaging citizens in decision-making processes, it poses numerous challenges, especially in terms of framing, organizing, and moderating the educational and deliberative stages of the process. [R]
73.6534 UMOH, Samuel Uwem —
The effectiveness of representative democracy in South Africa is questionable, given the lack of confidence in the Parliament and the recurring service delivery protests, which indicate that citizens’ opinions are unheard. Due to this, the Members of Parliament (MPs) devise strategies such as democratic innovation to involve citizens in policymaking as the platform for deliberation. Given this context, the paper discusses public participation in policymaking and how declining confidence in the Parliament necessitates democratic innovations as a panacea for increasing citizens’ participation in Parliament activities. The paper also identifies dilemmas that occur in public involvement. Data was generated by interviews (with 16 MPs), observation of plenary debates, minutes of the Parliament, Hansard, minutes of Select and Standing Committees, and Parliamentary speeches. Findings suggest that despite the complexity of implementing public participation in South Africa, the Parliament has made significant progress since 1994 in widening democratic innovation to facilitate public participation. However, disadvantaged people continue to be marginalized from policymaking. [R, abr.]
73.6535 UMPIERREZ DE REGUERO, Sebastián ; JAKOBSON, Mari-Liis —
Contributing to the emerging debate on non-resident citizens’ electoral preferences, this article addresses how migratory contexts affect their propensity to vote for populists. Employing two original datasets with information of external voting results from Latin America and Southern Europe, this study suggests that while external voters are on average slightly less likely to vote for populists than domestic voters, this varies meaningfully from country to country. It depends on the type of populism, populists’ incumbency, and the ideological preferences in the country of residence. [R] [See Abstr. 73.6536]
73.6536 UMPIERREZ DE REGUERO, Sebastián ; PELTONIEMI, Johanna —
Ever-increasing international migration has challenged the democratic dimension of political inclusion, especially with incorporating non-resident populations into national electoral practices. This has stimulated scholars to examine more closely the processes of emigrant enfranchisement, transnational voting behaviour and non-electoral participation by non-residents. Yet, a lack of comprehensive dialogue exists between migration studies and the literature on political participation. By combining these theoretical avenues, this special issue fills the gap in connecting the trajectories of non-resident citizens, co-ethnics and/or second-generation migrants with (perceived) homeland politics. We focus on specific European country cases both from a cross-regional perspective and by using a case study strategy in homeland and residence country contexts to respond to a set of previously unanswered research questions. [R] [Introduction to a thematic issue on "Diaspora political participation toward the homeland arena across Europe". See Abstr. 73.6173, 6303, 6340, 6448, 6504, 6535, 6540, 6543, 6549]
73.6537 VALLEJO VERA, Sebastián —
In democratic politics, the participation of interest groups in policymaking is commonly understood as a secluded affair. Why would interest groups and policymakers make public an otherwise private affair? I argue that legislators invite interest groups to participate in the legislative process to raise the salience of issues they ”own”. Legislators with gatekeeping authority, I show, bring interest groups into committees when their party benefits from raising public attention. Interest groups, on their part, are given preferential access to finetune laws that directly affect them. Extensions of the model show that participation increases before an election and declines after, with issue salience providing electoral benefits rather than policy ones. I test my argument using an original dataset of 4902 instances of interest group participation in committee meetings in the Ecuadorian Congress between 1988 and 2018, as well as over 30 interviews to interest group representatives, legislators, and congressional staff. [R]
73.6538 VAN DIJK, Lisa ; TURKENBURG, Emma ; POW, James —
Deliberative minipublics are becoming increasingly popular, with both scholars and practitioners highlighting their potential to bolster public approval of political decision-making. Yet, it remains unclear whether minipublics are able to do so in contexts where the public itself is deeply divided – a concern which becomes only more relevant as levels of polarization are said to rise across the globe. In this study, we argue that polarized citizens may perceive minipublics and their outcomes as less legitimate than more moderate citizens. We use original survey data from Northern Ireland (n = 932), a highly polarized society where a minipublic was organized on the contentious issue of the region’s constitutional future. [R, abr.]
73.6539 VASILOPOULOS, Pavlos, et al.—
This article investigates individual-level differences in mass support for the restriction of civil liberties during the first wave of the Covid-19 pandemic. Employing theories of affect and decision-making, it assesses the extent to which different emotional reactions toward the pandemic influenced attitudes toward mobile phone surveillance and the implementation of curfews. We test our hypotheses in five advanced European democracies using panel data which allow us to identify the role of emotions in support for restrictive policies controlling for individual heterogeneity. The results suggest that experiencing fear about Covid-19 had a strong positive impact on supporting these measures, while hope and anger only played a minimal role. Importantly, the findings indicate that emotions moderate the impact of trust toward the government, a key variable for supporting the restriction of civil liberties during the pandemic. [R, abr.]
73.6540 VATHI, Zana ; TRANDAFOIU, Ruxandra —
Focusing on the 3million — a major organisation that was formed after the 2016 Brexit Referendum to represent EU citizens in the UK, this article explores the role of online communication in supporting civic actors’ lobbying and mobilisation strategies at local, national and international levels. Apart from multi-scalar dimensions of these civic organisations’ work and of the way EU citizens themselves engage, we identify different strategies of impact. These are inter-linked and performed in a nonlinear fashion and include: emotionalising; politicising; channelling; contesting. These findings elaborate on the way multinational diaspora formation and mobilisation in the 21st c. should be conceptualised, and their importance for stakeholder empowerment. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 73.6536]
73.6541 VELEZ, Yamil R. ; PORTER, Ethan ; WOOD, Thomas J. —
Do individual, interpersonal, or institutional factors condition the effects of misinformation on beliefs? Can interventions such as fact checks stem the tide of the “infodemic” within marginalized communities? We explore the sudden flood of misinformation and disinformation targeting Latinos during the 2020 election and global COVID-19 pandemic to answer these questions. In a preregistered experiment, we find that exposure to misinformation can decrease factual accuracy, and neither trust in nor consumption of media, including ethnic media, serves as a buffer against these misinformation effects. However, fact-checks eliminate the effects of misinformation on false beliefs without “backfiring” and reducing accuracy. Fact-checks improve factual accuracy among subgroups varying in levels of political knowledge, trust, and acculturation. These findings provide crucial support for recent investments into fact-checking by Latino-oriented media outlets. [R, abr.]
73.6542 VERCESI, Michelangelo —
Among political scientists, presidents in parliamentary democracies have received little attention as compared to their popularly elected counterparts. Yet, there is evidence of influential heads of state beyond semipresidential and presidential systems, and the Italian one is a case in point. Scholars agree that the ‘informal power’ of Italian presidents has grown substantially since the early 1990s, due to the combination of weak party organisations, the personalisation of politics, and the mediatisation of the presidency. While the literature shows that the choice of the president has become more salient for parties, hardly anything is known about the impact that the increased presidential power has on the complexity of the selection process. This article argues that, when presidents are powerful, parties face high adverse selection costs and, therefore, party leaders will be less likely to compromise on candidates. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 73.6107]
73.6543 VINTILA, Daniela ; PAMIES, Carles ; PARADÉS, Marta —
Over the past decades, diasporas’ engagement in homeland elections has become a highly salient issue, especially given the widespread implementation of enfranchisement policies for citizens living abroad. Little is known so far about the voting patterns of Spaniards abroad. This article examines the electoral (non)alignment between resident and non-resident voters in the Spanish general elections held over the past three decades. We argue that a comprehensive assessment of electoral (non)alignment must consider two different analytical layers of turnout and party choice. The article shows that changing electoral rules on extraterritorial voting, the increasingly diverse profile of Spaniards abroad, and Spanish parties’ strategies towards the diaspora interact to account for differences in overseas Spaniards’ turnout rates and party choices when compared to resident voters. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 73.6536]
73.6544 VOGEL, Lars —
This article asks whether the persistent descriptive underrepresentation of East Germans in Germany’s elite positions contributes to lower levels of political support in Eastern Germany. Based on a population survey including a survey experiment, it shows that citizens in both parts of Germany perceive a descriptive underrepresentation of East Germans. This perception remains stable, even when new information is provided. It is, however, not an attitudinal prejudice about decoupled elites but also based on citizens’ cognitions. Citizens assess this underrepresentation negatively drawing on its negative impact on legitimacy, efficiency, and substantive and symbolic representation. The interaction of perception and negative assessment decreases political support for community, regime and institutions. The perceived impairment of legitimacy and symbolic representation fuels the withdrawal of support more strongly than impaired efficiency and substantive representation. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 73.6992]
73.6545 VonDOEPP, Peter ; YOUNG, Daniel J. —
This paper examines support for media freedoms in Anglophone African countries, focusing on the national and individual-level determinants of such support. Leveraging a unique dataset capturing anti-media rhetoric from political leadership across 15 African countries, we explore whether such rhetoric drives down support for media freedoms. Our findings offer only modest support for this, indicating that only certain types of rhetoric diminish support for media freedoms and, at that, only among executive supporters. By contrast, we find that anti-media rhetoric may actually drive up support. Moreover, we find that higher comparative levels of media professionalism significantly increase support for media freedoms. This suggests that media professionals may have substantial say in patterns of popular support for the media. More generally, our findings point to the need for more research on the impacts of both rhetoric and professionalism on support for the media. [R]
73.6546 VONG Mun —
This article explains the political significance of the Union of Youth Federations of Cambodia, the quasi-youth wing of the ruling Cambodian People’s Party in Cambodia. I argue that pro-regime events organized by the youth wing are a form of state mobilization designed to help the ruling party pre-empt the threat posed by the country’s growing youth population. In doing so, the youth wing draws upon the monarchy, culture, and nationalism to regenerate the ruling party’s legitimacy claims to make them more appealing to the target group. The article contributes to our knowledge of how authoritarian regimes mobilize citizens to maintain power. [R]
73.6547 VRYDAGH, Julien —
Deliberative minipublics — participatory processes combining civic lottery with structured deliberation — are increasingly presented as a solution to address a series of problems. Whereas political theory has been prolific in conceiving their contributions, it remains unclear how the people organizing minipublics in practice view their purposes, and how these conceptions align with the theory. This paper conducts a thematic analysis of the reports of all the minipublics convened in Belgium between 2001 and 2021 (n = 51) to map whether and how justifications coincide with the theory. The analysis reveals an important gap: minipublics are in practice predominantly presented as contributions to policymaking, while more deliberative functions remain peripheral. Some common practical purposes also remain under-theorized, in particular their capacity to bridge the gap between citizens and politics. This desynchronization, combined with a plethora of desired outcomes associated with minipublics, indicates the creation of a minipublic bubble which inflates their capacity to solve problems. [R]
73.6548 VRYDAGH, Julien ; CALUWAERTS, Didier —
Several studies have investigated the impact of mini-publics on public policy. These works do not however integrate the fact that decision-makers have preferences before a minipublic, and that these preferences affect the way a mini-public can impact public policy. The article develops a model to measure the influence of mini-publics on public policy, called the Sequential Impact Matrixes (SIM). This framework distinguishes multiple types of influences that a mini-public can exert on decision-makers following the latter’s initial sets of policy preferences. The model suggests that a minipublic can exert five different kinds of influences on decision-makers, namely a continuous, enriching, innovating, shifting, or an inhibiting influence. The framework is applied on the Citizens’ Panel ‘Make Your Brussels Mobility’ and it shows that most of the Panel’s recommendations were in line with the decision-makers’ initial preferences, whereas influences altering these preferences are rarer. [R] [See Abstr. 73.6512]
73.6549 WACKENHUT, Arne F. ; ORJUELA, Camilla —
Recent scholarship on diaspora engagement and transnational repression has investigated how authoritarian regimes seek to engage, govern and control their diasporas. This research has — to a large extent — focused on the varied positions held by regime supporters and dissidents. Intergenerational differences, however, have not been studied in this context. Drawing on established frameworks theorizing extraterritorial authoritarian practices, this article explores the ways in which second-generation diaspora — or diaspora youth — is either included as subjects, patriots and clients, or excluded as outlaws and traitors by authoritarian regimes. Drawing on the literature on transnationalism and second-generation migrants, and using examples from empirical cases, we argue that the skills, resources and multi-sited embeddedness of the second-generation diaspora can make them particularly interesting targets for transnational engagement — or repression. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 73.6536]
73.6550 WAGNER, Aiko —
This paper compares the evolution of critical characteristics of the party systems in Eastern and Western Germany since unification. While the institutionalisation hypothesis implies that the party system in Eastern Germany should adjust towards its Western German counterpart, the ongoing dealignment suggests a loosening of party-voter-linkages and, ultimately, non-institutionalisation in Eastern Germany and party system de-institutionalisation in Western Germany. However, both hypotheses predict a convergence. Against the backdrop of persisting regional differences in party strengths, a third hypothesis assumes that Eastern and Western Germany still have two distinct party systems thirty years after reunification. Using election results and survey data since the 1990s, we inspect the development of five indicators of party systems — volatility, voteswitching, electoral availability, fragmentation, and differences in vote shares — in light of the hypotheses. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 73.6992]
73.6551 WALDVOGEL, Thomas —
How do effects and “success factors” differ between interventions of civic education in political, foreign language, and online classes? The paper discusses this question by analyzing the responses of 381 pupils who participated in a simulative role-play about a televised debate on the French presidential election of 2022 in civics, French, and online classes. The evaluation study shows that in the overall sample, participation in the intervention significantly increased specific interest in the French presidential election, internal efficacy, and subjective knowledge, as well as actual knowledge levels. Second, it is clear that these learning effects vary across formats in different settings. [R, abr.]
73.6552 WAMSLER, Steffen, et al.—
Drawing on the behavioural immune system hypothesis, we argue that the prevalence of the Covid-19 pandemic threat in an individual’s respective environment relates to exclusive, ethnic conceptions of nationhood. Referring to the affective intelligence theory, we maintain that specific negative emotions are prompted by the perception of being exposed to a pandemic threat, and these emotional states in turn structure political preferences regarding national belonging. Using an original survey in six European countries during the first peak of the pandemic in late April and early May 2020, we analyze both the impact of individual Covid-19 experiences and the contextual exposure to a pandemic threat through hierarchical analyses of 105 European regions. Our empirical analysis shows that exposure to the pandemic is linked to stronger ethnic national identities for both levels of analysis. [R, abr.]
73.6553 WANG Xue ; BOHN, Frank ; VEIGA, Francisco Josè —
We model the political manipulation of deficits in a political budget cycle model. Assuming that a share of voters suffers from debt illusion the incumbent can increase her re-election chances by expanding government spending. However, the optimal manipulation may exceed the amount necessary to maximize re-election chances (over-manipulation) if the deficit is not very costly (low repayment obligation). Then, more selfish politicians (higher ego rents and, therefore, increased re-election motivation) reduce the over-manipulation. Conversely, “excessive” spending may wrongly be interpreted as opportunistic government manipulation. Theoretical results are supported empirically, with very robust evidence in a sample of 87 democracies. [R]
73.6554 WEINBERG, James —
Tackling an important gap in the literature on political trust, this article focuses on politicians and the relevance of their other-to-self trust judgements for decision-making in public office. A unique quantitative dataset gathered from national politicians in the UK, Canada and South Africa is used to (1) examine descriptive levels of felt trust and distrust among politicians and (2) evaluate the impact of these feelings on politicians’ risky decision-making. To achieve outcome (2), this article presents the results of three survey experiments in which politicians were asked to make decisions in scenarios where both the presentation and the nature of risk varied. The results indicate that MPs’ perceptions of public trust and distrust do matter for risky decision-making, and that these variables moderate a reflection effect whereby MPs are otherwise more risk-averse in the face of gains and risk-taking in the face of losses. [R]
73.6555 WESSEL TROMBORG, Mathias —
Political accountability requires that voters understand the distribution of policy outcome responsibility among their vote choice options. Research on partisan-motivated reasoning suggests that voters do not meet this requirement. The problem is that voters condition their attributions of responsibility to the government on their party identification. Government identifiers credit the government for desirable outcomes and blame external forces such as the global economy for undesirable outcomes. This paper draws a more optimistic conclusion. It argues that focusing on the perceived responsibility of the government and external forces is not sufficient for understanding whether voters meet the responsibility attribution requirement. It is also necessary to compare the perceived responsibility of government parties to the perceived responsibility of opposition parties because those are the options that voters get to choose from. This party distribution of perceived responsibility is analyzed with original survey data from Denmark and the United Kingdom. [R, abr.]
73.6556 WESTMAN, Linda ; CASTÁN BROTO, Vanesa ; HUANG Ping —
The diversification of actors in global climate governance may entail risks, but it is also linked to enhanced democratic performance and opportunities for innovation. To what extent has this diversification fostered a parallel multiplication of perspectives in urban climate policy? To answer this question, we analyze the evolution of urban narratives based on 463 international policy documents issued between 1946 and 2020. Our analysis shows that, instead of leading to diversification, the proliferation of actors is accompanied by a growing homogenization of urban narratives. Language appears to become progressively uniform across organizations and over time, with approaches emphasizing multi-actor governance, integrated planning, and co-benefits becoming dominant. In conclusion, the diversification of actors in international climate policy is mediated by processes of narrative alignment, which foreclose possibilities for divergent thinking. [R, abr.]
73.6557 WHITWORTH, Katherine ; LI Yao-Tai —
This study focuses on the Hong Kong Lennon Walls and the communications posted there. We assert that the physical placement of COVID-19 related images on the Lennon Walls of Hong Kong and the replication of symbols and iconography from the Umbrella Movement and the Anti-ELAB Movement situated COVID-19 discourse not only physically within but also symbolically within the contentious politics of Hong Kong. We conclude that the messages and images posted on Lennon Walls between January and April 2020 have used COVID-19 to extend public expression of sentiment on the debates around the Hong Kong government and to further mobilize a sense of Hong Kong identity against China. The findings contribute to the understandings of how the cultural politics surrounding the pandemic became a collective action frame in the mobilization of a localized Hong Kong political identity against the Hong Kong and Chinese governments. [R]
73.6558 WICKES, Judi, et al.—
Articles by Peta WANJUNAGALIN and Robyn E. THOMPSON, "Yubbi Yarning Circle Model: collective narratives and cultural expression in the journey of trauma, pp 6-34; Judi WICKES and Katherine ELLINGHAUS, " “Never look back, always look forward”: the early life of Nancy Power", pp. 35-49; Robyn NEWITT; Leanne WEBER; Sara MAHER, " Exemptions from Compulsory Income Management: A Short “History of the Present”, pp. 50-66; Christina Elizabeth LAWRENCE; "Another form of aboriginal exemption — Employment as protection against removal", pp. 67-83; Jacinta WALSH, " Married to a ‘British subject’", pp. 84-109; Kath Apma Penangke TRAVIS, " A her-storical biography and finding family history through the archives", pp. 110-121; Anna HAEBICH; Darryl KICKETT; Margaret COLBUNG, "Exemption and Nyungar letters in the West Australian archives", pp. 122-139; Victoria K. HASKINS, "Exemption: a gendered history", pp. 140-155.
73.6559 WILDE, Pieter DE —
Stronger EU competencies come with greater media presence, according to existing cross-sectional comparisons. While presence comes with the power to influence public discourse, we know little about how it affects the overall tone of public discourse. This article investigates the effect of the empowerment of EU institutions on media presence and the tone of debate in the EU. It does this through an original claims analysis of newspaper articles in Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Denmark, and Poland during the height of the Euro crisis (2011-2012), the Greek bailout crisis (2015), and the Italian budget crisis (2018). EU media presence indeed increases following empowerment. However, this does not result in a more pro-European debate, because pro-European national voices are crowded out. While this does not affect the desirability of austerity, it does harden Eurosceptic public discourse. [R]
73.6560 WILLEMS, Evelien ; BEYERS, Jan —
This paper examines how public support affects interest groups’ advocacy success across three distinct stages in the legislative process. We hypothesize that public support is vital for advocacy success when coalition agreements are negotiated, and it has a weaker effect when legislation is introduced in parliament by the governing majority but becomes stronger again when legislation is adopted. We assess these expectations for 55 Belgian policy issues. We combine evidence on legislative outcomes with public opinion data and a mapping of interest groups’ positions in the news. The results indicate that public support is key for advocacy success in the coalition agreement. [R, abr.]
73.6561 WILLIAMSON, Scott, et al.—
A growing body of research demonstrates that political involvement by Christian religious leaders can undermine the religion’s social influence. Do these negative consequences of politicization also extend to Islam? Contrary to scholarly and popular accounts that describe Islam as inherently political, we argue that Muslim religious leaders will weaken their religious authority when they engage with politics. We test this argument with a conjoint experiment implemented on a survey of more than 12,000 Sunni Muslim respondents in eleven Middle Eastern countries. The results show that connections to political issues or politically active religious movements decrease the perceived religious authority of Muslim clerics, including among respondents who approve of the clerics’ political views. The article’s findings shed light on how Muslims in the Middle East understand the relationship between religion and politics, and they contribute more broadly to understanding of how politicized religious leaders can have negative repercussions for religion. [R]
73.6562 WOLFORD, Scott —
I analyze a model of coalition war termination in which continued fighting prevents power from shifting in an enemy’s favor but causes power to shift between partners. War ends in equilibrium when both across- and withinside distributions of power are sufficiently stable, but coalition politics can shorten or lengthen the war. When within-side power is shifting but the rising partner’s stakes in the war are low, the war ends “early,” before fighting can solve the underlying bargaining problem. When continued fighting strengthens the rising partner sufficiently, its declining partner acquiesces in continued fighting when intramural discord is costly or coalition exit is unattractive, causing the war to end “late,” well after the enemy’s power has been stabilized. I use the model to account for the early end of World War I and the late end of the Paraguayan War. [R, abr.]
73.6563 WOLLER, Anders ; JUSTESEN, Mogens K. ; GERNER HARIRI, Jacob —
We show that political machines systematically use vote-buying to target voters with low costs of voting. We employ a geocoded survey of 3,192 respondents collected immediately after the municipal elections of 2016 in South Africa. We combine the survey data with administrative data on the geographical location of more than 22,600 polling stations. Our identification strategy exploits discontinuities in distances to vote generated by voting district boundaries in South Africa. This allows us to proxy the cost of voting with distance to the polling station and estimate the causal effect of the cost of voting on parties’ use of vote buying. The results have important implications for core assumptions concerning parties’ targeting strategies and for how electoral institutions shape the linkage strategies parties use to mobilize political support. [R, abr.]
73.6564 WOO Byung-Deuk ; GOLDBERG, Lindsey A. ; SOLT, Frederick —
Societal attitudes toward gender roles in the workplace and politics play a central part in theorizing on the difficulty women face in achieving political equality, but shortcomings in the available data have prevented direct examination of many implications of these theories. Drawing on recent advances in latent-variable modeling of public opinion and a comprehensive collection of survey data, we present the Public Gender Egalitarianism dataset to address this need: comparable estimates of the public’s attitudes on gender equality in the public sphere across more than one hundred countries over time. These Public Gender Egalitarianism scores are strongly correlated with responses to individual survey items and with women’s rates of participation in the labor force and corporate boards. We expect that the Public Gender Egalitarianism data will become an invaluable source for broadly cross-national and longitudinal research on the causes and consequences of collective attitudes toward gender equality in politics and the economy. [R]
73.6565 WUNSCH, Natasha ; GESSLER, Theresa —
In contexts of democratic backsliding, citizens represent the last bulwark against the systematic dismantling of checks and balances by overbearing executives. And yet, they repeatedly fail to punish authoritarian-leaning leaders at the ballot box, allowing them to consolidate their grip on power. Why is that so? We leverage a conjoint survey experiment in Hungary to probe competing mechanisms of citizen tolerance towards democratic violations in a context of severe backsliding. Our main contribution consists of demonstrating empirically the presence of a composite effect, whereby authoritarian-leaning elites succeed in offering targeted compensations to different groups, ultimately building a mosaic of support among voters to secure enduring electoral backing. We pinpoint trade-offs notably related to cultural conservatism and economic benefits among different subgroups of the population. At the same time, our empirical findings indicate surprisingly high levels of condemnation of undemocratic positions by Hungarian respondents. We discuss how this unexpected pattern points to the limitations of conjoint designs as well as the overlooked supply side of democratic backsliding. Our study feeds into broader debates about the unfolding and entrenchment of democratic backsliding and how we study these processes. [R]
73.6566 YAKTER, Alon ; HARSGOR, Liran —
A large literature examines how citizens in violent conflicts react to the conflict’s events, particularly violent escalations. Nevertheless, the temporal nature of these attitudinal changes remains under-studied. We suggest that popular reactions to greater violence are typically immediate but brief, indicating short-term emotional responses to physical threats. Over the longer term, however, public opinion is more commonly shaped by non-violent events signaling the adversary’s perceived intentions, reflecting slower but deeper belief-updating processes. We support this argument using dynamic analyses of comprehensive monthly data from Israel spanning two full decades (2001-20). Rather than violence levels, we find that long-term changes in Jewish attitudes on the Israeli–Palestinian conflict follow non-violent events implying Palestinian preferences, particularly failed negotiations and out-group leadership changes. Our findings underscore the importance of public opinion’s temporal dynamics and show that non-violent events, which are often overlooked in the literature, play a prominent role in shaping long-term attitudes in conflictual contexts. [R]
73.6567 YAN Jian ; YANG Xuedong —
This article puts the power centralization drive of the CPC since 2012 into perspective by going back to the Party’s history. By employing the retrospective governance studies approach, it singles out three cases in the CPC’s history in which top Party leaders chose to reinforce the CPC’s centralized system even when the Party had made strides in the previous stage, including creating the Instruction Request and Work Report System in 1948, adjusting Party-government Relations in 1953 and prioritizing toplevel design since the 18th Party Congress in 2012. Based on a detailed analysis and comparison of the background, process and repercussions of furthering the CPC’s centralized system in the three cases, this article concludes that top Party leaders chose to further strengthen the CPC’s centralized system even when the Party was making strides in its cause primarily because of their concerns about the negative influences, real or imaginary, of the changing environment on the organizational integrity of the Party. By demonstrating the significance of CPC’s Leninist heritage in enabling its resilience, the present analysis broadens the scope of authoritarian resilience studies. [R]
73.6568 YANG Xiaoyu ; NAHN, Abraham Y. —
To better understand the government-business relations and the governance in China, this study investigates the effects of Chinese business leaders’ membership in the National People’s Congress (NPC) on government subsidy, firm’s strategic change, and labor inefficiency. Our sample consists of 959 firms with business leaders in the 10th and 11th NPC, which account for 88% of the total firms that have business leaders in the NPC. To make a valid comparison, we used various criteria to create a matching sample of 44,894 firms that have no business leaders in the NPC. The results suggest that NPC membership has a positive effect on government subsidy, and negative effects on firm’s strategic change and labor inefficiency. After conducting a post-hoc analysis, we found interesting interaction effects of NPC membership and firm ownership upon firm’s strategic change and labor inefficiency. State-owned firms had stronger negative relationships between NPC membership and strategic change, and between NPC membership and labor inefficiency. [R]
73.6570 YEŞILTAŞ, Murat ; KARDAŞ, Tuncay —
This study explains how a segment Kurdish nationalists in Syria imitates and substitutes the Westphalian conception of sovereign statehood in Syria. It argues that the Partiya Yekîtiya Democrat (PYD-an offshoot of the PKK in Syria) establishes its rule both by mimicking and substituting modern tools of state-making. The study identifies a three-pronged politicalmilitary strategy used at the local, regional and international levels. It shows that facing existential challenges from local non-state competitors and regional predatory states, the PYD’s main approach has been mimicking the modern state where possible and substituting the lack of legitimate rule and sovereignty with a set of political and global support networks. The study lastly shows how the PYD’s logic in mimicking the modern state practices is ultimately dependent on the support particularly from great powers. [R, abr.]
73.6571 YUEN, Samson —
Countermobilization has been a common strategy for autocrats to counteract the threat of opposition. Although the use of countermobilization has drawn scholarly attention, research on the mechanisms that enable countermobilization remains limited. This article underscores the role of political institutions in allowing autocrats to carry out countermobilization through incentivizing elites to serve as a bridge between the state and the masses. Focusing on the case of Hong Kong, where pro-government countermobilization is rising along with pro-democracy challenges against the hybrid regime, the article argues that countermobilization is enabled because societal elites are incentivized through political institutions to organize the masses and develop mobilization capacity through grassroots organizations. Using original elite biographical data and organizational data, the article shows that elites with more ties with grassroots organizations are more likely to remain in office in the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference. [R, abr.]
73.6572 ZBIERANEK, Piotr —
The increasing complexity of the social world forces transformations within public pol-icies, which are trying to adapt to the dynamically changing reality. The implementa-tion of new management techniques in line with the model of metagovernance appears to be a common formula of such adaptation. The model involves complementing the existing management models with horizontal networks of public policy stakeholders as well as establishing the policy regarding three principles — of the required diversity, required reflexivity, and ironic attitude. Public cultural institutions that serve the role of framework institutions support the implementation of new management techniques, primarily by means of creating new and supporting existing networks of cultural policy stakeholders. The description of the institution is based on in-dept-interviews with in-dividuals involved in the creation of public policy in the area of culture pursued in the second half of 2018. [R]
73.6573 ZBÍRAL, Robert ; LYSEK, Akub ; BÍLEK, Jaroslav —
There is an ongoing debate on how political parties that form coalition governments keep tabs on each other during the drafting and negotiation of new bills. Our article complements existing studies focused on the parliamentary stage of law-making by enriching current knowledge with an analysis of the executive phase, where bills may be significantly changed before they are submitted to the legislature. Contrary to theoretical expectations, results based on unique data from the Czech Republic reveal that bills which are heavily altered during the executive phase are subsequently significantly changed in the parliament. Additional interaction models indicate the effect is stronger for bills that are highly significant for the proposing minister and are a greater distance from any coalition compromise. [R, abr.]
73.6574 ZHAO Taotao —
Since the early 2010s, a low-profile “dig deep and reach wide” campaign led by local Chinese Communist Party (CCP) committees has unprecedently institutionalized and embedded academic opinions into the regimes’ decision-making processes. This research aims to deepen the existing understanding of the intricate relationship between players in the CCP’s decision-making process by analysing the Party’s deliberation on scholarly opinions through an academic lens. It argues that the local Party committees’ incentives to incorporate academic opinions into their information channels are not only a reaction to the central CCP’s increasing need to “reach wide” for high-quality and critical policy proposals but are also a move to seek political endorsement from the central authorities. This process has transformed government-academic relations in China from a patron-client model to one of increasing interdependence in which Chinese academia has become increasingly attuned to the thinking and needs of the CCP. [R]
73.6575 ŻUK, Piotr —
This article aims to outline the media and thematic framework within which environmentalists were described by the right-wing pro-government media in Poland from 2016 to 2020 and to explain the main ideological conflicts over ecology. On the other hand, the author shows how these conservative stereotypes about the environmental movement affect the opinions of Polish society. The author defends the thesis that the anti-ecological phobias of the right-wing Law and Justice (PiS) government have politicised environmental issues and revived ecological conflicts. The results presented show the importance of cultural, political and spatial dimensions for the development of the environmental movement in Poland. [R]
73.6576 —
Studies on religious discrimination have focused on the nature, causes, and dynamics of repression, asserting that perceived threats and crosscutting influences of religious ideology and rational calculation are predictors for governmental discrimination against religious minorities. Yet, research on how the dynamic interplay of repression and pushback shapes the contestation between governments and minorities is lacking. This article explores this issue with a case study of a small indigenous religion group in culturally heterogenous Indonesia. Building on civic space theory, this article argues for the importance of coping strategies in resisting stateled discrimination and asserting civic space. This article carefully examined complex micro dynamics while also offering new insights to better understand the interplay between repression and pushback in the context of religious freedom. [R]
73.6577
Articles by Nermin ALLAM, Marwa SHALABY; and Hind Ahmed ZAKI; Gamze ÇAVDAR; Shereen ABOUELNAGA; Katja Žvan ELLIOTT; Huda ALSAHI; Julieta SUÁREZ-CAO.
73.6578
Articles by Ingrid BRECKNER; Sarah UHLMANN; Joscha METZGER; Sebastian SCHIPPER; Lisa VOLLMER; Renée TRIBBLE; Simon GÜNTHER, et al.