Abstract
An analysis of the tracks of total and annular solar eclipses crossing China reveals that most of the reports of such eclipses in the treatises in the dynastic histories from 206
Keywords
Introduction
Historical records of the occurrence of large solar eclipses provide a vital data set for the determination of changes in the Earth’s past rate of rotation (Stephenson et al.).
1
Ancient records from China constitute the major part of this dataset before
Care needs to be taken to avoid circularity in this methodology: eclipse observations are used to predict the behaviour of the Earth’s rotation, which in turn is used to select the most ‘reliable’ eclipse records. Two important factors mitigate against this potential shortcoming:
Independent observations of eclipses from Babylon and Greece have much greater weight than those of China before
In this article, we are principally concerned with a comparative study of the internal consistency of records of eclipses originating from different sources in China.
Early Chinese history is replete with records of solar eclipses (as well as accounts of other celestial phenomena). One of the principal reasons for observing these events and recording the observations was their perceived astrological importance. There are very few reliable Chinese records of solar eclipses prior to the late 8th century
Over many centuries, from the beginning of the Former Han dynasty in 206
The detailed Chinese records of eclipses in the period 198
Annals and treatises
In the official dynastic histories, there are two main sources of solar eclipse reports: the imperial annals (benji), which cover the first chapters of a history and the “treatise on astronomy” (tianwenzhi) or the “treatise on the five phases” (wuxingzhi). Not every dynastic history contains a treatise of specific relevance to the present paper. Treatises are absent in several dynastic histories, notably the Sanguozhi (“Records of the Three Kingdoms”), Liangshu (“History of the Liang dynasty”), Chenshu (“History of the Chen dynasty”), Nanshi (“History of the Southern Dynasties”) and Liaoshi (“Liao dynasty”).
Although most of the solar eclipse records in the dynastic histories merely mention the occurrence of an eclipse on a specific date, a small—but significant—proportion give additional details. Such information sometimes includes whether an eclipse was “total” (ji) or “almost complete” (jijin). Dual reports of most eclipses are found in both the annals and appropriate treatise of a dynastic history. However, the descriptions of the same large eclipses in both annals and treatises are frequently in discord.
The question arises as to why there are differences in the reports of the same event. First, there is good reason to assume that the accounts of eclipses (and other celestial phenomena) in the various treatises are based on the observations of the imperial astronomers at the appropriate capital. Many of the reports in these works contain technical details: for instance, the position of the Sun at a solar eclipse in relation to the equatorial reference system of 28 unequal lodges (xiu) into which the circuit of the heavens was divided (the right ascension (RA)) to the nearest degree (du); or detailed descriptions of the motion of a comet through the constellations and estimates of the length of its tail. Close conjunctions of the Moon with planets or stars are also frequently noted in the treatises. By comparison, such details are extremely rare in imperial annals.
However, an intriguing exception to this general rule occurs in the Tang dynasty (
Dubs
2
in his discussion of the solar eclipse records in the Hanshu (206
Dubs focused on the eclipses in the Former Han dynasty. In the present article, we revise Dubs’ work and extend our investigation to the end of the Yuan dynasty. Using our studies on Earth’s past rotation (Stephenson et al.
3
), we are able to accurately compute the local circumstances of any eclipse at any particular place as far back as about 700
In all, we have investigated reports of 35 solar eclipses, which were described as total or nearly total from the start of the Former Han dynasty (206
Large solar eclipses reported in Chinese dynastic histories −197 to +1292.
Chinese calendar and dating of eclipses
Commencing with the Former Han dynasty, there are frequent solar eclipse records in Chinese history. The date of each event—in both the imperial annals and the treatises— follows a standard pattern: year of the appropriate imperial reign period, lunar month, day of the sexagenary cycle, day of the lunar month (almost invariably the first or last day). To give an example, the eclipse of −180 is reported as occurring in the “7th year of Empress Lu, first lunar month, day jichou, the last day of the month”. The day jichou was the 26th day of the appropriate 60-day cycle. When this date is converted to the Julian calendar, it corresponds to −180 March 4, which is precisely the date on which modern computation indicates that a large solar eclipse was visible in China. Such accord between historical and astronomical dating is typical of almost all Chinese eclipse records; exceptions are rare. The few instances where we find significant discord between the recorded date and our computed date (other than due to minor copying errors in the cyclical day) will be discussed in “Discussion of individual eclipse records −197 to +1292.”
Places of observation and historical background
Fortunately, in the early centuries, and again between about
Place coordinates.
Coordinates interpolated in the charts of Hermann. 4
At the beginning of the Sui dynasty, in
From the point of view of eclipses, the period after
Only a single large eclipse of the Sun is recorded in Jin history (in
Discussion of individual eclipse records −197 to +1292
For each eclipse, we reproduce the report in the treatises and annals, as appropriate, together with the computed central magnitude at greatest phase. The accompanying maps show the path of the umbral shadow across the Earth’s surface and the location of the appropriate capital.
The times, associated quantities and locations on the Earth of the umbral shadow have been calculated using our own software based on the Besselian plane method as described in The Explanatory Supplement.5,6 The basic coordinates of the Sun and Moon are from the Jet Propulsion Laboratory’s long-term ephemerides DE 431 (Folkner et al. 7 ) and their apparent places uses the algorithm that is given in The Explanatory Supplement 8 together with routines from the Standards Of Fundamental Astronomy. 9 The correction to the rotational phase of the Earth is determined by the value of ∆T taken from our paper Historical Changes in UT/lod from Eclipses. 10
−
The Sun was eclipsed; it was total; it was 13° in (the lodge) Zhang.
The Sun was eclipsed.
Although this eclipse was annular, the report in the treatise describes it as “total”. We presume that at this period there was not a separate term for a central annular eclipse. In fact, not until as late as −
The Sun was eclipsed; it was almost complete. It was at the beginning of (the lodge) Qixing.
The Sun was eclipsed; it was total.
From the plot, the track of totality passed to the south of Chang’an. During maximum phase at Chang’an, 7% of the Sun’s diameter remained visible, thus agreeing with the treatise “almost complete”, but at variance with the annals “total”.
− The Sun was eclipsed; it was total; it was 9° in (the lodge) Yingshi, which represents the interior of the Palace chambers. At that time the (Dowager) Empress of Gao[-zu] was upset by it and said, ‘This is on my account’. The next year it was fulfilled. [The Empress Dowager died nearly 18 months after the eclipse.]
The Sun was eclipsed; it was total.
The plot shows that the eclipse was total at Chang’an, in agreement with both accounts.
−
Emperor Jing, 3rd year of the Zhongyuan reign period, 9th month, day wuxi [35], the last day of the month. The Sun was eclipsed; it was almost complete. It was 9° in (the lodge) Wei.
The Sun was eclipsed.
The date, as found in the treatise is correct. But the Hanshu annals incorrectly give the date as the 4th year of the Zhongyuan reign period, 10th month, day wuwu [55]. This date corresponds to −145 November 30, on or near which no eclipse was visible in China. The plot shows the track in the north of China. Almost a quarter of the Sun’s diameter remained at maximum phase, slightly at variance with the treatise “almost complete”.
−
The Sun was eclipsed; it was not complete and like a hook. It was 2° in (the lodge) Kang … it recovered before sunset.
The Sun was eclipsed.
The plot shows the track in the south of China. At Chang’an, about a 10th of the Sun’s diameter (magnitude 0.91) remained at maximum phase. This is in accord with the treatise “not complete and like a hook.” By comparison, the annals merely note the occurrence of an eclipse. This is the earliest known record which describes the partially eclipsed Sun as “like a hook”. In later years, this expression was frequently used in reports of partial eclipses.
−
The Sun was eclipsed; it was almost complete. It was 20° in (the lodge) Zhang.
The Sun was eclipsed; it was total.
Almost a fifth of the Sun’s diameter (magnitude 0.79) remained at maximum phase. This is slightly at variance with the report “almost complete”, but at odds with “total” in the annals.
−
Emperor Yuan, Jianzhao reign period, 5th year, 6th month, day renshen [9], the last day of the month. The Sun was eclipsed; it was not complete and like a hook; then it set.
The Sun was eclipsed.
The date in both the treatise and annals is in error. It corresponds to −33 August 23, but no eclipse was visible on that date. It is very likely that the records refer to −34 November 1, since from the plot of the track it is seen that the Sun set eclipsed, which is in agreement with the statement “then it set”. About a fifth of the Sun remained at maximum phase, which agrees with the statement “not complete and like a hook”. The annals simply note the occurrence of an eclipse.
−
The Sun was eclipsed; it was not complete and like a hook; it was 6° in (the lodge) Dongjing. When the eclipse first began, it started from the south-west.
The Sun was eclipsed; it was total.
At maximum phase in Chang’an, about 8% of the Sun’s diameter remained. This is in good agreement with the treatise “not complete and like a hook”, but at variance with the annals “total”.
−
The Sun was eclipsed; it was not complete and like a hook. It was 10° in (the lodge) Yingshi.
The Sun was eclipsed.
At maximum phase in Chang’an (magnitude 0.85), 15% of the Sun’s diameter remained, in good agreement with the Hanshu treatise “not complete and like a hook”. The track of totality was very narrow. The annals are not specific on the magnitude of the eclipse.
The Sun was eclipsed; it was total.
The Sun was eclipsed.
This eclipse is similar to that of −1 February 5, with a very narrow track of totality, and it is unlikely that it was seen as total anywhere in the vicinity of Chang’an. At Chang’an, nearly a tenth of the Sun’s diameter was unobscured at maximum phase, in contradiction to the treatise “total”, whereas the report in the annals is not specific. This is one of the few eclipses wrongly described in the treatises (see section “Implications for the behaviour of ∆T in the period −197 to +1292”).
The Sun was eclipsed; it was total; it was 11° in (the lodge) (Nan) Dou.
The Sun was eclipsed; it was total.
Both the treatise and the annals assert that his eclipse was total. However, at the capital Luoyang, 5% of the Sun remained at maximum phase. As with the preceding eclipse (year +2), this is a rare instance where the report in the treatise is in error (see section “Implications for the behaviour of ∆T in the period −197 to +1292”).
The Sun was eclipsed. It was almost complete; on Earth it was like evening. It was 11° in (the lodge) Xunu.
The Sun was eclipsed; it was total.
The record in the Houhanshu treatise agrees with the fact that Luoyang was just outside the track of totality (magnitude 0.99). Presumably, the report of totality in the annals originated from outside the capital.
The Sun was eclipsed.
The Sun was eclipsed; it was total.
There is no treatise on astronomy in the Sanguozhi, but the Jinshu treatise contains astronomical records from the Wei kingdom (capital Luoyang) during the Sanguo period (
The Sun was eclipsed; it was total.
The Sun was eclipsed.
The Sun was eclipsed.
The plot shows a central annular eclipse (magnitude 0.94), in agreement with the report of totality in the Songshu treatise. The Songshu, which is much concerned with Jin as well as Song history, was compiled in
The Sun was eclipsed. It was not complete and like a hook.
The Sun was eclipsed; it was almost complete and was in (the lodge) Jiao.
The Sun was eclipsed; it was total.
The plot shows that Jiankang was just to the north of the track of annularity, in accord with the Songshu and Jinsh treatises, but not the annals.
The Sun was eclipsed; it was not complete and like a hook. During the eclipse stars were seen. At the hour of fu (= 15 hours -17 hours), then it disappeared. In Hebei province the Earth was in darkness.
The Sun was eclipsed.
The Sun was eclipsed; stars were seen by day.
At maximum phase in Jiankang 6% of the solar diameter remained visible. (The magnitude is not sensitive to the precise value of ∆T in this case). “Stars seen” could only have been Venus and Jupiter. The Nanshi (“History of the Southern Dynasties”) covers the Song, Nanqi, Liang and Chen dynasties, which existed in South China from
The Sun was eclipsed; it was total; all the constellations (i.e. the lodges) were brightly lit.
The Sun was eclipsed.
The Sun was eclipsed; it was total.
There is no doubt from the report in the treatise that Jiankang was actually in, or at least on the very edge of the track of totality.
The Songshu treatise also records a total eclipse on a date corresponding to +453 August 20. The record states that “The Sun was eclipsed it was total and all the stars were seen”. No eclipse was total in China for several years around this time, apart from that of +454 August 10. It is noteworthy that the date of the non-event in +453 (which is also reported in the annals of the Songshu and Nanshi, but without any mention of magnitude or the visibility of stars) is exactly 12 lunar months prior to the date of the eclipse of +454. Hence, it may reasonably be concluded that the earlier records represent misplaced reports of the total eclipse of +454.
The Sun was eclipsed.
The Sun was eclipsed; it was total.
This eclipse reached a computed magnitude of 0.93 at Jiankang, which was very close to the edge of the wide zone of annularity. It is unfortunate that neither the Liangshu nor the Nanshi contains a treatise, which might have resolved the issue of whether or not it was central at Jiankang.
The Sun was eclipsed; it was total.
The Sun was eclipsed; it was total.
This eclipse reached a computed magnitude of 0.99 at Jiankang, which was close to the edge of the wide zone of totality. Once again, it is unfortunate that neither the Liangshu nor the Nanshi contains a treatise.
The Sun was eclipsed; it was total.
The Sun was eclipsed.
The Sun was eclipsed.
The Sun was eclipsed.
The Sun was eclipsed.
The entry in the Suishu treatise is a retrospective entry for the Northern Zhou dynasty. The eclipse was central in the Vietnam region, but reached a magnitude of only 0.33 at Chang’an (and 0.31 at Jiankang). The zone of annularity extended no further than latitude 17°Ν—far to the south of China. The source of the Suishu record of a total eclipse is thus obscure.
The Sun was eclipsed; it was total.
The Sun was eclipsed; it was total.
The Sun was eclipsed; it was total.
Although this eclipse was consistently reported as total, there is some doubt as to the place of observation due to several major rebellions around this time. As is clear from the plot of the track, it was not central at Daxing nor Luoyang.
The Sun was eclipsed; it was almost total; it was in the first degree of (the lodge) Jiao.
The Sun was eclipsed.
The Sun was eclipsed; it was not complete and like a hook. It was seen at the capital and in the four directions.
The eclipse was not total at the capital, reaching a magnitude of 0.97 there. This is in accord with the plot of the track and supports the records in both the Xin Tangshu treatise and the Jiu Tangshu annals. The detail in the Jiu Tangshu annals [6] is unusual. Not only does the report clearly describe a large partial eclipse, but it also asserts that the eclipse (evidently partial) was seen at both the capital and in the provinces. As shown in the plot, the provincial locations to the south and west of Chang’an experienced a partial eclipse.
The Sun was eclipsed; it was not complete and like a hook. It was 9° in (the lodge) Di.
The Sun was eclipsed.
The Sun was eclipsed.
The Sun was eclipsed; it was like a hook.
This eclipse was not total at the capital, reaching a magnitude of 0.91 there. This is in accordance with the reports in both the Xin Tanshu treatise [32] and the Jiu Tangshu annals [8]. Once again (as in +702), there is no inconsistency between the description in the Xin Tangshu treatise and the Jiu Tangshu annals, other than the note of the RA of the Sun as cited in the treatise.
The Sun was eclipsed; it was almost total; it was 19° in (the lodge) Dongjing.
The Sun was eclipsed.
The Sun was eclipsed.
The Sun was eclipsed; it was not complete and like a hook.
The computed eclipse magnitude at Chang’an was 0.84, which is in accord with both the reports of a large partial eclipse in the Xin Tangshu treatise and the Jiu Tangshu annals.
The Sun was eclipsed; it was total; it was 10° in (the lodge) Di.
The Sun was eclipsed.
The Sun was eclipsed.
The Sun was eclipsed; it was total.
As noted in section “Places of observation and historical background,” there is doubt as to the place of observation of this eclipse. On account of the An Lushan rebellion and capture of Chang’an early in +756, the Tang Emperor Suzong and his court had fled to north-west China. They were unable to return to Chang’an until the following year. Computation reveals that this eclipse was total in the far north-west of China—see eclipse map. This temporary relocation of the court could be the origin of the “total” reports in the Xin Tangshu treatise and Jiu Tangshu annals.
The Sun was eclipsed; the large stars were all seen; it was 4° in (the lodge) Zhang.
The Sun was eclipsed; the large stars were all seen. The Astronomer Royal, Qutan, reported (to the emperor): “The Sun diminished. Precisely after 6 marks (ke) in the hour of chen the loss began; at 1 mark in the hour of si it was total; at 1 mark before the hour of wu it was restored to fullness. It was 4° in (the lodge) Zhang.”
The Sun was eclipsed
The Sun was eclipsed; the large stars were all seen.
Both the treatises and the annals assert that this eclipse was total at the capital of Chang’an. The account in the Jiu Tangshu treatise, quoting the report of the Astronomer Royal is especially detailed.
The Sun was eclipsed; it was 13° in (the lodge) Wei.
The Sun was eclipsed; it was 12° in (the lodge) Wei. It was not complete by one quarter. In (the regions of) Yan and Zhao it was seen to be total.
The Sun was eclipsed.
The Sun was eclipsed.
Only the Jiu Tangshu treatise mentions the magnitude of this eclipse, although the computed magnitude at Chang’an was 0.94, the recorded magnitude is very much underestimated. (Note: The difference is only 1° between solar RA as recorded in the Xin Tangshu and the Jiu Tangshu treatises.)
6th year of the Qianfu reign period of Emperor Xizong, 4th lunar month, day gengshen [57], the first day of the month, there was an eclipse of the Sun. The eclipse was total and the Sun was 8° in (the lodge) Wei.
(same date as treatise) The Sun was eclipsed.
Although the Sun and Moon were indeed in conjunction on that day (corresponding to + 879 April 25), and the Sun was indeed in the lodge Wei, no eclipse occurred on or near that date and no eclipse was central in China for several years around that time. We interpret the records as an abortive prediction, noting that—for instance—in both +778 and +790 the astronomical treatise of the Jiu Tangshu records eclipses that were said to have been predicted, but not seen.
The Sun was eclipsed; it was 1° in (the lodge) Wei.
The Sun was eclipsed; it was total.
There are no records of the event in the Jiu Tangshu treatise. This generally annular eclipse reached a magnitude of only 0.68 at Chang’an. The central zone was far to the east along the Chinese coast and also in Korea. Evidently, the treatise reports an observation made at the capital, whereas the annals report from a provincial location much to the east of Chang’an.
The Sun was eclipsed; it was total.
The Sun was eclipsed; it was total.
This eclipse was barely visible at Kaifeng; at mid-eclipse the Sun was 8° below the western horizon, while at first contact the solar altitude was only 3°. The path of totality did not reach further north than latitude 18°N. The eclipse was total in Vietnam, and elsewhere in south-east Asia. Possibly, the record implies an attempt at prediction by the Song astronomers.
The Sun was eclipsed; it was total.
The Liaoshi does not have an astronomical treatise. The history of the semi-nomadic kingdom of Liao is complex. Dading was the central residence of the emperors, but there were also several other imperial residences. Computation indicates that the eclipse was total at Dading, and also over a wide area of the Liao kingdom.
The Sun was eclipsed; it was total.
Our plot shows that the eclipse was not total at Dading, reaching only magnitude 0.89. The eclipse was only total in the extreme north-west of China.
This eclipse was recorded independently in the Jin and Song empires.
1) Kaifeng or Zhongtu? (Jin dynasty)
The Sun was eclipsed; the large stars were all seen.
The Sun was eclipsed.
Commencing nearly a century before the eclipse (in +1127), the Jin dynasty ruled much of the northern half of China. Jin armies occupied the Song dynasty capital of Kaifeng, and this city became the Jin southern capital; the Song court fled south to Linan. Until around the time of the eclipse, Zhongtu (modern name Beijing) was the Jin central capital. However, during the winter of +1213/1214, the Mongols under Genghis Khan blockaded the Jin central capital of Zhongtu and soon afterwards the Jin emperor decided to transfer his court to the southern capital of Kaifeng. There is thus some doubt as to the place of observation in +1214.
Although the eclipse seems to have been very large where it was observed, there is no direct indication of its magnitude. At Kaifeng, the eclipse reached a magnitude of 0.88, which would be hardly large enough to render “all the large stars” visible. Further north, at Zhongtu, the magnitude was even less (0.75).
2) Linan (Northern Song dynasty)
The Sun was eclipsed; it was in (the lodge) Jiao.
The Sun was eclipsed; Venus was seen by day.
The eclipse reached a magnitude of 0.91 at Linan. This might have rendered Venus visible (the eclipse occurred around noon, while the planet was 43° west of the Sun), but there is nothing in the records to suggest totality.
The Sun was eclipsed; it was total. The sky and Earth were in darkness. People could not be distinguished within a foot. The chickens and ducks returned to roost … then it regained its brightness.
The Sun was eclipsed; it was total. Stars were seen. The chickens and ducks returned to roost. In the following year the Song dynasty was extinguished.
The Sun was eclipsed; it was total. It became as dark as night.
This eclipse was indeed fully total at the Song capital of Linan, in accord with the various detailed descriptions. The allusion to the effect of the eclipse on birds is unique in Chinese history.
The Sun was eclipsed. A darkness invaded the Sun, which was not totally covered. It was like a golden ring. There were vapours like golden earrings to left and right, and a vapour like a halo completely surrounding it.
The Sun was eclipsed. Because the Sun was eclipsed, the normal daily greetings to the Emperor were not offered by the court. At the time of the solar eclipse, there were vapours like golden earrings to left and right, and a vapour like a halo completely surrounding it.
The report in the treatise is an unusually careful account of an annular eclipse. In particular, the reference to the Sun appearing like a “golden ring” is unique in Chinese history. This was mid-winter, and it would probably be very cold. It seems likely that a cloud of ice-crystals in the atmosphere produced the halo display, which is alluded to in both records. Computation reveals that at Dadu (Beijing), the Yuan capital, the eclipse (magnitude 0.94) was indeed annular. On this occasion, the imperial annals are clearly reporting from a source at the capital itself.
Comparison of the consistency of eclipse reports in the treatises and annals
In order to fix the phase of the Earth’s rotation at a particular date, we need to know with a good degree of certainty whether or not an eclipse was total, nearly total or central annular at a particular place. A simple report that the Sun was eclipsed is not sufficiently precise for our purposes, because the report may have emanated from anywhere in the extensive partial zone, thus giving a wide range for the parameter ∆T. This deficiency exists in many of the reports in the annals. Also, several of the Hanshu annals record that eclipses were total, when in fact in most cases the eclipse could not have been total at the capital, and there is no evidence of where these may have been observed. Therefore, again, these reports cannot be used in the study of the Earth’s rotation.
On the other hand, the annals in the two official histories devoted to the Tang dynasty generally give more details than the Hanshu annals. The earlier of these, the Jiu Tangshu (Old History of the Tang) was compiled less than 40 years after the end of the dynasty. The Xin Tangshu (New History of the Tang) was compiled about a century after the completion of the Jiu Tangshu. Occasionally, the Jiu Tangshu contains interesting detail omitted in the Xin Tangshu. However, we note that on other occasions the Jiu Tangshu treatise [36] fails to mention the occurrence of several eclipses—notably those of +702 and +709.
Apart from the eclipse of +756, the reports in the Jiu Tangshu annals (but not the Xin Tangshu annals) support the description in the Xin Tangshu treatise. In general, it does seem that, unlike the Xin Tangshu annals, and the annals of other official histories, the Jiu Tangshu annals are based on the records of the official astronomers, although they omit technical details such as the solar RA.
The large number of reports in the annals before the Tang dynasty claiming totality for eclipses which were in fact not total at the capital, strongly suggests that these reports came from the provinces rather than the capital itself. Indeed, two of the later reports of totality in the annals must have come from as far away as Vietnam (+977), or the most northern part of China (+1122).
By contrast, the reports in the treatises nearly always follow the statement ‘the Sun was eclipsed’ by the qualifications ‘it was total’ or ‘it was nearly total, and like a hook’. In general, there is very good agreement with calculation. Only in the eclipses of +2, +65, +562 and +1214 are the treatise reports significantly in error. The treatises also often contain supplementary information about which constellation (the lodge) the Sun was located. The eclipse of +562 does not contribute to the discussion of ∆T, so we do not consider it further. The other three are discussed further in the next section.
In conclusion, the generally close agreement of the treatises with calculation constitutes strong evidence that they contain reports by the court astronomers situated at the royal palace in the capital. They can be regarded with a high degree of reliability for the determination of ∆T.
It is interesting to investigate how many large eclipses could potentially have been observed at Chang’an during the settled period of the Former Han dynasty from −205 to +23. We find that there were 18 eclipses of magnitude greater than 0.80 that could have been witnessed at Chang’an in this period. This comprises 10 listed in Table 1, together with eclipses in the years −121, −95, −92 (−68), −53, −14, +6 and +16 where, unfortunately, there is no indication of the magnitude of the eclipse in the report. These are not considered by us in this article because they do not make a contribution to the discussion of ∆T. The eclipse in −68 is the only one that is not reported at all in the Former Han dynastic histories. Clearly, this implies that the court astronomers were assiduous in their recording of eclipses.
Besides these large eclipses which occurred in China during the Former Han dynasty, the Hanshu also records 12 ‘eclipses’ which were invisible in China in that period. We surmise that these were attempts at prediction. Indeed, later, in the Tang dynasty, there are many false sightings of eclipses, some not visible in China, which were cited as if they were observations, and this supports our conjecture that the reports of eclipses in +879 and +977 were in fact predictions and not observations.
Implications for the behaviour of ∆T in the period −197 to +1292
The ramifications for ∆T of adopting the Chinese treatise reports, while rejecting the annals, are considered in relation to contemporaneous results from other civilisations. Table 3 lists the range of solutions for the critical values of ∆T and their residuals
Limitations on the value of ∆T from Chinese large solar eclipses.
Lu: Luoyang; Gu: Guangling.
Some eclipses, such as −146, do not impose any feasible constraints on ∆T. Values of
Although the reports in the annals have been discounted, we include two reports from +516 and +522 in Table 3 because they impinge on the discussion of ∆T.
The values of

Differences,
The present analysis does not materially affect the results for ∆T before year 0. From year 0 to +800, there are relatively few critical observations, and apart from the Greek results for +71 and four timed observations, all the observations are Chinese.
If our published long-term spline fit to ∆T is accurate, then the reports in the years +2, +65 and +1214 in the treatises are anomalous. Also, the reports for +516 and +522 in the annals have a bearing on the discussion of +454. We discuss these in conjunction with Figure 1.
Summary of the reliability of the treatise observations of large solar eclipses for the determination of ∆T
In Table 4, we summarise our results regarding the reliability of the treatise reports of eclipses where the place of observation is not in doubt. This shows that of the 28 reports, only 5 are definitely in error.
Summary of the reliability of the treatise observations.
A = Annular, T = Total, c = central eclipse magnitude.
Conclusion
From a detailed analysis of the tracks of total and annular eclipses recorded in the dynastic histories in the period 206
The long-term fluctuation shown in Figure 1 with its reliance on the lower bound of ∆T for the eclipse of +454, which we have published previously, is supported by this analysis.
Footnotes
Acknowledgements
The authors acknowledge HM Nautical Almanac Office and the International Astronomical Union’s Standards of Fundamental Astronomy.
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The map outlines were downloaded from Natural Earth at
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