Dominant Nationalism and Civil War

Civil war research has primarily studied ethnic nationalism in the form of emancipatory movements that seek to attain government representation or autonomy. In contrast, it has neglected nationalist movements whose ideology insists on a specific group’s political dominance. Addressing this gap, we argue that dominant nationalism increases the risk of civil war through three mechanisms: First, under the influence of dominant nationalist ideology, governing elites are more likely to politically exclude outgroups, even if doing so increases the risk of civil war. Second, if they control the government, dominant nationalists can also spark civil war by victimizing outgroup members. Finally, dominant nationalism fuels conflict-prone independence demands among outgroups. Using new data covering 90 countries since WWII, we find robust support for these expectations. Our results underline the need for cross-national conflict research to take more seriously the role of dominant nationalism and of ideology more broadly.