Prophecy Continues to Fail

This paper describes a Japanese sect headed by a prophet-founder and the reactions of both its members and the prophet when an earthquake prophesied by him in 1974 failed to materialize. The prophet unsuccessfully attempted to commit suicide and later disbanded the sect. The Japanese circumstances are compared with accounts of similar cases of unfulfilled prophecies in the United States which are reported to have led to greater faith among the prophets' followers, a reaction that has been interpreted on the basis of a theory of cognitive dissonance. Similarities and differences in the Japanese and U.S. cases are noted and suggestions are made for adapting the original formulation of interpretive theory for application to non-U.S. cases and general cross-cultural use.