Abstract
Hendrix, Cullen S & Idean Salehyan (2012) Climate change, rainfall, and social conflict in Africa. Journal of Peace Research 49(1): 35–50. doi:10.1177/0022343311426165
Due to errors in table formatting, incorrect coefficients for the estimated constant terms in Tables II & III and the time trend variable in Table III were reported in the original version. These errors have been corrected in the updated tables below. These changes do not change the statistical or substantive significance of the variables of interest.
Rainfall deviations and civil conflict onset, 1991–2008
| Variable | (1) |
|---|---|
| Lagged DV | −2.494 *** (0.689) |
| Rainfall deviation | 0.405 *** (0.156) |
| Rainfall deviation2 | −0.077 (0.069) |
| Rainfall deviation, lagged | −0.101 (0.151) |
| Rainfall deviation2, lagged | −0.043 (0.088) |
| Polity2, lagged | 0.013 (0.031) |
| Polity22, lagged | −0.010 (0.009) |
| log Population, lagged | 0.079 (0.110) |
| Population growth, lagged | 0.014 ** (0.006) |
| log Real GDP per capita, lagged | −0.191 (0.288) |
| Real GDP growth, %, lagged | −0.004 (0.010) |
| Constant | −0.141 (2.018) |
| Controls for temporal dependence | Yes |
| Observations | 828 |
| Countries | 47 |
Robust standard errors, clustered on countries, in parentheses.
* significant at 10%
** significant at 5%
*** significant at 1%.
Rainfall deviations and social conflict events, 1991–2007
| (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) | (8) | (9) | (10) | (11) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Variables | Total Events | Nonviolent Events | Violent Events | Government-targeted | Non-government-targeted | |||||
| Lagged DV | 0.049 *** (0.009) | 0.019 *** (0.002) | 0.093 *** (0.015) | 0.033 *** (0.005) | 0.081 *** (0.015) | 0.029 *** (0.004) | 0.091 *** (0.014) | 0.034 *** (0.005) | 0.080 *** (0.019) | 0.026 *** (0.004) |
| Rainfall deviation | −0.015 (0.032) | −0.016 (0.028) | −0.042 (0.039) | −0.025 (0.033) | 0.032 (0.035) | 0.011 (0.039) | −0.012 (0.043) | 0.003 (0.034) | −0.023 (0.037) | −0.017 (0.037) |
| Rainfall deviation2 | 0.072 *** (0.018) | 0.046 ** (0.018) | 0.068 *** (0.021) | 0.031 (0.022) | 0.084 *** (0.026) | 0.061 ** (0.025) | 0.074 *** (0.025) | 0.044 ** (0.022) | 0.072 ** (0.031) | 0.021 (0.025) |
| Rainfall deviation, lagged | −0.018 (0.038) | −0.007 (0.03) | −0.027 (0.035) | −0.026 (0.034) | 0.014 (0.056) | 0.024 (0.042) | −0.058 (0.042) | −0.035 (0.035) | 0.044 (0.049) | 0.073 * (0.038) |
| Rainfall deviation2, lagged | 0.015 (0.028) | 0.033 (0.021) | 0.002 (0.026) | 0.023 (0.024) | 0.033 (0.04) | 0.035 (0.031) | −0.003 (0.029) | 0.019 (0.025) | 0.039 (0.034) | 0.028 (0.027) |
| Polity2 | −0.015 (0.012) | −0.004 (0.011) | −0.017 (0.012) | −0.007 (0.012) | −0.003 (0.014) | 0.014 (0.014) | −0.016 (0.013) | −0.009 (0.012) | −0.002 (0.015) | 0.028 * (0.015) |
| Polity22 | −0.000 (0.003) | −0.005 *** (0.002) | 0.003 (0.003) | −0.002 (0.002) | −0.005 (0.003) | −0.009 *** (0.003) | 0.001 (0.003) | −0.004 * (0.002) | −0.003 (0.003) | −0.011 *** (0.002) |
| (log) Population | 0.331 *** (0.062) | 0.164 ** (0.08) | 0.290 *** (0.053) | 0.109 (0.094) | 0.439 *** (0.075) | 0.207 ** (0.100) | 0.276 *** (0.058) | 0.056 (0.091) | 0.494 *** (0.092) | 0.429 *** (0.120) |
| Population growth, % | −4.134 * (2.112) | −1.77 (2.311) | −3.894 (2.442) | −1.723 (2.365) | −4.747 ** (2.213) | −1.253 (3.525) | −4.733 (2.918) | 0.326 (2.731) | −4.563 ** (2.096) | −2.826 (2.948) |
| (log) GDP per capita | −0.107 (0.074) | 0.049 (0.097) | −0.09 (0.079) | 0.104 (0.113) | −0.116 (0.079) | −0.046 (0.125) | −0.105 (0.087) | 0.136 (0.116) | −0.058 (0.113) | 0.058 (0.122) |
| Real GDP growth, % | −0.012 ** (0.005) | −0.007 * (0.004) | −0.009 (0.006) | −0.007 (0.005) | −0.017 ** (0.007) | −0.007 (0.005) | −0.013 ** (0.006) | −0.004 (0.004) | −0.013 * (0.008) | −0.009 * (0.005) |
| Civil conflict incidence | 0.055 (0.098) | −0.025 (0.095) | 0.123 (0.095) | 0.082 (0.109) | −0.046 (0.152) | −0.251 * (0.131) | −0.018 (0.107) | 0.002 (0.113) | 0.136 (0.153) | −0.037 (0.118) |
| Time trend | −0.229 (0.178) | −0.198 (0.157) | −0.349 (0.225) | −0.195 (0.187) | −0.072 (0.206) | −0.201 (0.209) | −0.284 (0.238) | −0.301 (0.189) | −0.201 (0.139) | −0.176 (0.188) |
| Constant | 2.905 (3.314) | 2.441 (2.979) | 4.626 (4.209) | 2.261 (3.569) | −1.513 (3.620) | 2.487 (3.861) | 3.851 (4.231) | 4.309 (3.571) | −0.306 (2.850) | −0.396 (3.581) |
| Observations | 765 | 765 | 765 | 765 | 765 | 765 | 765 | 765 | 765 | 765 |
| Countries | 46 | 46 | 46 | 46 | 46 | 46 | 46 | 46 | 46 | 46 |
| Period dummies? | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Fixed effects? | No | Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes |
| Clustered errors? | Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes | No |
Standard errors in parentheses
***p < 0.01
**p < 0.05
*p < 0.1