Prison as a Turning Point? The Conditional Nature of Incarceration in Women's Offending Trajectories

Abstract

Objectives

This study examines incarceration as a turning point in criminal trajectories. It explores how offending behavior changes following incarceration and whether these changes vary based on prior offending patterns and specific prison experiences.

Methods

Using longitudinal data from 205 incarcerated women, we analyze offending trajectories over a ten-year period—five years before and five years after incarceration. We apply dual group-based trajectory modeling to identify patterns of continuity and change and assess whether transitions differ based on differential prison experiences, including victimization and access to employment. We complement the analysis with C-tests and growth-curve models.

Results

Continuity in offending is the most common pattern, particularly among individuals with low prior involvement. However, transitions—especially toward lower offending—are observed among those with higher preincarceration offending. Access to employment or training and the lack of visits correspond to transitions to less frequent offending.

Conclusions

Results are consistent with incarceration as a contingent turning point, with changes in pre- to postincarceration offending varying by prior trajectories and tending to be gradual. Patterns related to prison conditions appear sensitive to selection processes and sample size, warranting replication.

Keywords

incarceration turning points offending trajectories prison experiences women

Get full access to this article

View all access options for this article.

References

Abbott

1997. “On the Concept of Turning Point.” Comparative Social Research 16:85‐105.

Agnew

1992. “Foundation for a General Strain Theory of Crime and Delinquency.” Criminology; An Interdisciplinary Journal 30:47‐87.

Agoff

Sandberg

Fondevila

. 2020. “Women Providing and Men Free Riding: Work, Visits and Gender Roles in Mexican Prisons.” Victims and Offenders 15(7–8):1086‐104.

Angrist

J. D.

Pischke

J. S.

. 2009. Mostly Harmless Econometrics: An Empiricist's Companion. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.

Apel

2016. “The Effects of Jail and Prison Confinement on Cohabitation and Marriage.” The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science 665(1):103‐26.

Apel

Horney

. 2018. “How and Why Does Work Matter? Employment Conditions, Routine Activities, and Crime Among Adult Males.” Criminology; An Interdisciplinary Journal 56(3):545‐74.

Audry

Liebling

. 2020. “The Role of Prison Staff in Shaping Carceral Experience.” Punishment & Society 22(3):351‐73.

Auty

Liebling

. 2020. “Exploring the Relationship Between Prison Social Climate and Reoffending.” Justice Quarterly 37(2):358‐81.

Belknap

. 2021. The Invisible Woman. Gender, Crime, and Justice. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications, Inc.

10.

Bergman

Fondevila

. 2021. Prisons and Crime in Latin America. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.

11.

Bersani

B. E.

Doherty

. 2018. “Desistance from Offending in the Twenty-First Century.” Annual Review of Criminology 1:311‐34.

12.

Bersani

B. E.

Laub

J. H.

Nieuwbeerta

. 2009. “Marriage and Desistance from Crime in the Netherlands: Do Gender and Socio-Historical Context Matter?”. Journal of Quantitative Criminology 25(1):3-24.

13.

Bottoms

Shapland

. 2011 “Steps Towards Desistance Among Male Young Adult Recidivists.” Pp. 43-80 in Escape Routes: Contemporary Perspectives on Life After Punishment edited by Farrall

En S.

Sparks

Maruna

Hough

. Abingdon, UK: Routledge.

14.

Brand

J. E.

Xie

. 2010. “Who Benefits Most from College? Evidence for Negative Selection in Heterogeneous Economic Returns to Higher Education.” American Sociological Review 75(2):273‐302.

15.

Broidy

Agnew

. 1997. “Gender and Crime: A General Strain Theory Perspective.” Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency 34(3):275‐306.

16.

Broidy

Cauffman

. 2017. “The Glueck Women: Using the Past to Assess and Extend Contemporary Understandings of Women’s Desistance from Crime.” Journal of Developmental and Life-Course Criminology 3(2):102‐25. doi: 10.1007/s40865-016-0048-z

17.

Broidy

Payne

Piquero

A. R.

. 2018. “Making Sense of Heterogeneity in the Influence of Childhood Abuse, Mental Health, and Drug use on Women’s Offending Pathways.” Criminal Justice and Behavior 45(10):1565‐87.

18.

Broidy

Thompson

. 2018 “Developmental and Life-Course Findings on Women and Girls.” Pp. 624-49 in The Oxford Handbook of Developmental and Life-Course Criminology edited by Farrington

D. P.

Kazemian

Piquero

A. R.

. New York: Oxford University Press.

19.

Bucerius

Haggerty

Dunford

. 2021. “Prison as Temporary Refuge: Amplifying the Voices of Women Detained in Prison.” The British Journal of Criminology 61:519‐37.

20.

Bucerius

Sandberg

. 2022. “Women in Prisons.” Crime and Justice 51(1):137‐86.

21.

Bushway

Thornberry

Krohn

. 2003. “Desisting Offenders’ Self-Reported Reasons for Desistance.” Journal of Contemporary Criminal Justice 19(1):63‐83.

22.

Carlsson

2012. “Using ‘Turning Points’ to Understand Processes of Change in Offending: Notes from a Swedish Study on Life Courses and Crime.” The British Journal of Criminology 52(1):1‐16.

23.

Castillo

Miller

Vize

Baranger

Lynam

. 2026. “When Do Interaction/Moderation Effects Stabilize in Linear Regression?” Advances in Methods and Practices in Psychological Science 9(1):1‐14.

24.

Centro de Estudios Justicia y Sociedad. 2016. Antecedentes Para la Implementación de Programas de Intervención Especializados en Reinserción Social Para la Población Penal Adulta. Santiago, Chile: Instituto de Sociología, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile.

25.

Cook

P. J.

Kang

Braga

A. A.

Ludwig

O’Brien

M. E.

. 2015. “An Experimental Evaluation of a Comprehensive Employment-Oriented Prisoner re-Entry Program.” Journal of Quantitative Criminology 31:355‐82.

26.

Cortés

Grau

Rivera

. 2019 Juvenile incarceration and adult recidivism. Serie de Documentos de Trab ajo, FEN, SDT 482. https://repositorio.uchile.cl/handle/2250/168222.

27.

Crewe

Hulley

Wright

. 2017. “The Gendered Pains of Life Imprisonment.” The British Journal of Criminology 57:1359‐78.

28.

Daly

1992. “Women’s Pathways to Felony Court : Feminist Theories of Lawbreaking and Problems of Representation.” Review of Law and Women’s Studies 2:11‐52.

29.

Daza

Larroulet

. 2019. Evaluación de Sesgo en Línea de Base. Centro de Estudios Justicia y Sociedad del Instituto de Sociología, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile. https://justiciaysociedad.uc.cl/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/20190305_Sesgos_Linea_Base.pdf .

30.

DiPietro

S. M.

Doherty

E. E.

Bersani

B. E.

. 2018. “Understanding the Role of Marriage in Black Women’s Offending Over the Life Course.” Journal of Developmental and Life-Course Criminology 4(2):162‐87.

31.

D'Unger

A. V.

Land

K. C.

McCall

P. L.

Nagin

D. S.

. 1998. “How Many Latent Classes of Delinquent/Criminal Careers? Results from Mixed Poisson Regression Analyses.” American Journal of Sociology 103(6):1593‐630.

32.

Eggleston

Laub

Sampson

. 2009 “Group-based Trajectories in Life Course Criminology.” Pp. 187-210 in The Craft of Life Course Research. Nueva York: The Guilford Press.

33.

Elder

. 1985. Life Course Dynamics: Trajectories and Transitions, 1968–1980. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.

34.

Elder

Johnson

Crosnoe

. 2003 “The Emergence and Development of Life Course Theory.” Pp. 3-19 in Handbook of the Life Course edited by Mortimer

En J.

Shanahan

. New York, NY: Springer.

35.

Fair

Walmsley

. 2024. World Prison Population List. 14th ed. London: Institute for Crime & Justice Policy Research, University of London.

36.

Frisch

2018. Framing Imprisonment as a Turning Point in the Lives of Criminally-Involved Adults. (Doctoral Dissertation). College Park: University of Maryland.

37.

Gaes

Camp

. 2009. “Unintended Consequences: Experimental Evidence for the Criminogenic Effect of Prison Security Level Placement on Post-Release Recidivism.” Journal of Experimental Criminology 5(2):139‐62.

38.

Gobeil

R. B.

2016. “A Meta-Analytic Review of Correctional Interventions for Women Offenders: Gender-Neutral Versus Gender-Informed Approaches.” Criminal Justice and Behavior 43(3):301‐22.

39.

Haggerty

Bucerius

. 2020. “The Proliferating Pains of Imprisonment.” Incarceration 1(1):1‐16.

40.

Heimer

Malone

S. E.

De Coster

. 2023. “Trends in Women's Incarceration Rates in US Prisons and Jails: A Tale of Inequalities.” Annual Review of Criminology 6(1):85‐106.

41.

Hickert

Bushway

Nieuwbeerta

Dirkzwager

. 2021. “Confinement as a Two Stage Turning Point: Do Changes in Identity or Social Structure Predict Subsequent Changes in Criminal Activity?” Criminology; An Interdisciplinary Journal 59:73‐108.

42.

Hirschi

Gottfredson

. 1983. “Age and the Explanation of Crime.” American Journal of Sociology 89(3):552‐84.

43.

Horney

Osgood

D. W.

Marshall

I. H.

. 1995. “Criminal Careers in the Short-Term: Intra-Individual Variability in Crime and its Relation to Local Life Circumstances.” American Sociological Review 60:655-73.

44.

Hyatt

J. M.

2024. “Understanding Prison Climate: New Insights from Multilevel Modeling.” Crime & Delinquency 70(1):59‐89.

45.

INDH. 2019. Estudio de las Condiciones Carcelarias en Chile. Diagnóstico del Cumplimiento de los Estándares Internacionales de Derechos Humanos en la Privación de Libertad. Santiago, Chile.

46.

Jaynes

C. M.

2020. “The Relationship Between Job Quality and Crime: Examining Heterogeneity in Treatment and Treatment Effect.” Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency 57(6):693‐740.

47.

Jonas-van Dijk

Eichelsheim

Dirkzwager

Nieuwbeerta

. 2020. “The Effectiveness of Prison-Based Education for Incarcerated Offenders: A Meta-Analysis.” Journal of Experimental Criminology 16:309‐31.

48.

Jones

Nagin

. 2007. “Advances in Group-Based Trajectory Modeling and an SAS Procedure for Estimating Them.” Sociological Methods & Research 35(4):542‐71.

49.

King

R. D.

Massoglia

MacMillan

. 2007. The Context of Marriage and Crime: Gender, the Propensity to Marry, and Offending in Early Adulthood. Criminology 45(1): 33-65.

50.

Kirk

D. S.

Wakefield

2018. “Collateral Consequences of Punishment: A Critical Review and Path Forward”. Annual Review of Criminology 1:171-194.

51.

Kruttschnitt

Gartner

. 2003 “Women's Imprisonment.” Pp. 301-81 in Crime and Justice: A Review of Research edited by Tonry

En M.

. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press.

52.

Larroulet

Daza

Bórquez

. 2023. “From Prison to Work? Job-Crime Patterns for Women in a Precarious Labor Market.” Social Science Research 110:102844.

53.

Larroulet

Droppelmann

Daza

Del Villar

Figueroa

. 2021a. Reinserción, Desistimiento y reincidencia en mujeres privadas de libertad en Chile. Santiago, Chile: Centro de Estudios Justicia y Sociedad, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile.

54.

Larroulet

Droppelmann

Del Villar

Daza

Figueroa

Osorio

. 2020. “Who is Transitioning Out of Prison?: Characterising Female Offenders and Their Needs in Chile”. International Journal for Crime, Justice and Social Democracy 9(1):112-125.

55.

Larroulet

Loughran

Augustyn

Thornberry

Henry

. 2021b. “Intergenerational Continuity and Discontinuity in Substance Use: The Role of Concurrent Parental Marijuana Use.” Journal of Developmental and Life-Course Criminology 7(2):127‐50.

56.

Laub

Sampson

. 2003. Shared Beginnings, Divergent Lives: Delinquent Boys to Age 70. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.

57.

Lee

J. G.

Gillespie

L. K.

Slocum

L. A.

Simpson

S. S.

. 2020. “Better Together? Intimate Partner Effects on Offending Women.” Journal of Developmental and Life-Course Criminology 6(4):499-523.

58.

Leverentz

A. M

. 2014. The Ex-prisoner's Dilemma: How Women Negotiate Competing Narratives of Reentry and Desistance. New Brunswick: Rutgers University Press.

59.

Listwan

Sullivan

Agnew

Cullen

. 2013. “The Pains of Imprisonment Revisited: The Impact of Strain on Inmate Recidivism.” Justice Quarterly 30(1):144‐68.

60.

Loeffler

Nagin

. 2022. “The Impact of Incarceration on Recidivism.” Annual Review of Criminology 5:133‐52.

61.

Loughran

Nagin

. 2006. “Finite Sample Effects in Group-Based Trajectory Models.” Sociological Methods & Research 35(2):250‐78.

62.

McCuish

Bushway

Lussier

Gushue

. 2025. “The Impact of Incarceration on Reoffending: A Period-to-Period Analysis of Canadian Youth Followed into Adulthood.” Journal of Criminal Justice 96:102335.

63.

McCuish

Lussier

Corrado

. 2018. “Incarceration as a Turning Point? The Impact of Custody Experiences and Identity Change on Community Reentry.” Journal of Developmental and Life-Course Criminology 4:427‐48.

64.

McCuish

E. C.

2020. “Seductions of Exposure Time: The Mismeasurement of Desistance Among Persons Involved in Frequent and Serious Offending.” Canadian Journal of Criminology and Criminal Justice 62(3):29‐50.

65.

McGloin

J. M.

Augustyn

M. B.

Ward

J. T.

. 2025. “Moving Beyond the Average Gang Membership Effect: Investigating Treatment Effect Heterogeneity in Concurrent and Long-Term Outcomes.” Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency 62(4):597‐655.

66.

Morales

Hurtado

Figueroa

Ortiz

Polanco

Muñoz

. 2016. Estudio Sobre los Niveles de Exclusión Social en Personas Privadas de Libertad. Santiago: Fundación Paz Ciudadana y Fundación San Carlos de Maipo.

67.

Nagin

2005. Group-Based Modeling of Development. Cambridge: Harvard University Press.

68.

Nagin

2013. “Deterrence in the Twenty-First Century.” Crime and Justice 42(1):199‐263.

69.

Nagin

Cullen

Lero Jonson

. 2009. “Imprisonment and Reoffending.” Crime and Justice 38:115‐200.

70.

Nagin

Odgers

. 2010. “Group-Based Trajectory Modeling in Clinical Research.” Annual Review of Clinical Psychology 6:109‐38.

71.

National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2022. The Limits of Recidivism: Measuring Success After Prison. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.

72.

Nguyen

Loughran

. 2018. “On the Measurement and Identification of Turning Points in Criminology.” Annual Review of Criminology 1:335‐58.

73.

Nguyen

Loughran

T. A.

Paternoster

Fagan

Piquero

A. R.

. 2017. “Institutional Placement and Illegal Earnings: Examining the Crime School Hypothesis.” Journal of Quantitative Criminology 33(2):207‐35.

74.

Nieuwbeerta

Nagin

Blokland

. 2009. “Assessing the Impact of Imprisonment on Recidivism.” Journal of Quantitative Criminology 35(2):227‐43.

75.

Nur

A. V.

Nguyen

. 2023. “Prison Work and Vocational Programs: A Systematic Review and Analysis of Moderators of Program Success.” Justice Quarterly 40(1):129‐58.

76.

Owen

B. A

. 1998. In the Mix: Struggle and Survival in a Women's Prison. Albany, NY: Suny Press.

77.

Pager

2003. “The Mark of a Criminal Record.” American Journal of Sociology 108(5):937‐75.

78.

Paternoster

Bushway

. 2009. “Desistance and the ‘Feared Self’: Toward an Identity Theory of Criminal Desistance.” Journal of Criminal Law and Criminology 99(4):1103‐56.

79.

Przyborowski

Wilenski

. 1940. “Homogeneity of Results in Testing Samples from Poisson Series: With an Application to Testing Clover Seed for Dodder.” Biometrika 31(3/4):313‐23.

80.

Rodermond

Van De Weijer

Rosenkrantz Lindegaard

Bijleveld

C. C.

Slotboom

A. M.

Kruttschnitt

. 2023. “Out of Prison, Out of Crime? The complex Interplay Between the Process of Desistance and Severe Resource Disadvantages in Women’s Post-Release Lives.” European Journal of Criminology 20(6):1852‐77.

81.

Rufs

Larroulet

Valenzuela

. 2023. “Encarcelamiento Materno y Problemas de Comportamiento en Niños, Niñas y Jóvenes en Chile.” Revista Española de Investigación Criminológica 21(1):1‐23.

82.

Salisbury

E. J.

Kalantry

Boppre

Brundige

Martínez

. 2018. “Expanding the Feminist Pathways Perspective Beyond the United States: A Profile of Federal Women Prisoners in Argentina.” Women & Criminal Justice 28(2):125‐51.

83.

Sampson

Laub

. 1990. “Crime and Deviance Over the Life Course: The Salience of Adult Social Bonds.” American Sociological Review 55(5):609‐27.

84.

Sampson

R. J.

Laub

J. H.

Eggleston

E. P.

. 2004. On the Robustness and Validity of Groups. Journal of Quantitative Criminology 20(1):37-42.

85.

Sampson

R. J.

Laub

J. H.

Wimer

. 2006. “Does Marriage Reduce Crime? A Counterfactual Approach to Within-Individual Causal Effects.” Criminology; An Interdisciplinary Journal 44(3):465‐508.

86.

Sanhueza

Brander

Reiser

. 2019. “Encarcelamiento Femenino en Chile. Calidad de Vida Penitenciaria y Necesidades de Intervención.” Revista de Ciencias Sociales 32(45):119‐45.

87.

Singer

J. D.

Willett

J. B.

. 2003. Applied Longitudinal Data Analysis: Modeling Change and Event Occurrence. New York, NY: Oxford University Press.

88.

Slocum

Simpson

Smith

. 2005. “Strained Lives and Crime: Examining Intra-Individual Variation in Strain and Offending in a Sample of Incarcerated Women.” Criminology; An Interdisciplinary Journal 43(4):1067‐110.

89.

Slocum

L. A.

Medel

Doherty

E. E.

Simpson

S. S.

. 2022. “Unpacking the Criminogenic Aspects of Stress Over the Life Course: The Joint Effects of Proximal Strain and Childhood Abuse on Violence and Substance Use in a High-Risk Sample of Women.” Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency 59(6):699‐755.

90.

Steiner

Makarios

Travis

. 2017. “Examining the Link Between Institutional Conditions and Recidivism.” Justice Quarterly 34(6):1094‐119.

91.

Sykes

. 1958. The Society of Captives: A Study of a Maximum Security Prison. Princeton, NY: Princeton University Press.

92.

Tahamont

Yan

Bushway

S. D.

Liu

. 2015. “Pathways to Prison in New York State.” Criminology & Public Policy 14(3):431‐53.

93.

Travis

Western

Redburn

. 2014. The Growth of Incarceration in the United Stated: Exploring Causes and Consequences. Washington, D.C.: The National Academies Press.

94.

Turney

Wildeman

. 2015. “Detrimental for Some? Heterogeneous Effects of Maternal Incarceration on Child Wellbeing.” Criminology & Public Policy 14(1):125‐56.

95.

van Ginneken

Palmen

. 2023. “Is There a Relationship Between Prison Conditions and Recidivism?” Justice Quarterly 40(1):106‐28.

96.

Wakefield

Uggen

. 2010. “Incarceration and Stratification.” Annual Review of Sociology 36:387‐406.

97.

Wermink

Apel

Nieuwbeerta

Blokland

A. A.

. 2013. “The Incapacitation Effect of First-Time Imprisonment: A Matched Samples Comparison.” Journal of Quantitative Criminology 29(4):579‐600.

98.

Western

2006. Punishment and Inequality in America. New York, NY: Russell Sage Foundation.

99.

Wheaton

Gotlib

. 1997 “Trajectories and Turning Points Over the Life Course: Concepts and Themes.” Pp. 1‐26 in Stress and Adversity Over the Life Course, edited by Gotlib

En I.

Wheaton

. New York: Cambridge University Press.

100.

Wright

Caspi

Moffitt

T. E.

Silva

P. A.

. 2001. “The Effects of Social Ties on Crime Vary by Criminal Propensity: A Life-Course Model of Interdependence.” Criminology; An Interdisciplinary Journal 39(2):321‐48.

101.

Zweig

Yahner

Visher

Lattimore

. 2015. “Using General Strain Theory to Explore the Effects of Prison Victimization Experiences on Later Offending and Substance Use.” The Prison Journal 95:113‐84.

Supplementary Material

Please find the following supplemental material available below.

For Open Access articles published under a Creative Commons License, all supplemental material carries the same license as the article it is associated with.

For non-Open Access articles published, all supplemental material carries a non-exclusive license, and permission requests for re-use of supplemental material or any part of supplemental material shall be sent directly to the copyright owner as specified in the copyright notice associated with the article.

0.00 MB

0.07 MB