Certainty of Arrest and Crime Rates for Major Felonies: A Research Note

A recent investigation by Tittle and Rowe (1974) examining the deterrent effect of the certainty of arrest on felony rates in Florida is briefly summarized and critiqued. Examination shows their analysis to suffer from serious theoretical and methodological limitations. To extend their investigation and thus better understand the deterrent effect of arrest we examine the relationship between arrest rates and offense rates for cities and counties of Florida for seven major felonies. Analysis lends general support to the deterrence argument, but shows that the effect of arrest is not uniform for each offense, with different levels of arrest (certainty of apprehension) required to reduce rates for different crimes.