Problems and Prospects for Democratic Settlements: South Africa as a Model for the Middle East and Northern Ireland?

Intense ethnic, racial, and religious violence led many to classify South Africa, Northern Ireland, and Israel/Palestine as intractable conflicts. Yet they diverged, with only South Africa achieving a lasting settlement. The authors explain why. The authors analyze them as a distinctive type of negotiated transition. The ancién regime is an imperfect democracy, subject to electoral constraints and legitimated by democratic principles that it violates. This constrains negotiations but helps manage difficult commitment problems. The authors show how the principals navigated constraints and took advantage of opportunities in South Africa but have failed—so far—to do so in the other two conflicts.