Risk- and Simulation-Based Optimization of Channel Depths: Entrance Channel of Cam Pha Coal Port

Abstract

We present a simulation model for long-term optimal design of channel depths in which the risk of ship grounding due to wave impacts can be assessed for every ship transit. This new model includes four main components: (1) an eXponential probability law for the number of ship departures; (2) a parametric model of the wave-induced ship motions; (3) modeling effects of tidal variations on the channel performance; and (4) a Poisson probability law for the grounding model in a single random ship departure. A key procedure of the simulation process is to define a minimum underkeel clearance allowance for ship entrance and simultaneously determine downtimes that correspond to an acceptable grounding risk for a specified ship and a generated environment condition. The final results derived from the simulation model can be considered as the key parameters in analysis and selection of an optimal depth. The model has been applied to the entrance channel of Cam Pha Coal Port, Vietnam, as a case study.

Keywords

Ship grounding risk modeling simulation model entrance channel underkeel clearance

Get full access to this article

View all access options for this article.

References

Permanent International Association Navigation Congress (PIANC). 1997. Approach Channels: A Guide for Design, Supplement to Bulletin no. 95. International Association of Ports and Harbors.

Savenije, R.P.A.C. 1995. Probabilistic Admittance Policy Deep Draught Vessels. Rotterdam: Ministry of Transport, Transport Research Center.

Geert, F.T. and K.J. Gerrit 1998. A port simulation model as a permanent decision instrument. Simulation 71(2): 117-125.

Zeki, D. and F. Sargent. 1999. Deep-Draft Coastal Navigation Entrance Channel Practice. Washington DC: Technical note I-63. US Army Corp of Engineers.

US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE). 1996. Hydraulic Design Guidance for Deep-Draft Navigation Projects. Washington DC: E.M. 1110-2-1613. US Army Corps of Engineers .

Briggs, M.J. , L.E. Borgman , and E. Bratteland. 2003. Probability Assessment for Deep-Draft Navigation Channel Design. Coastal Engineering Journal 48: 29-50.

Vantorre, M. and E. Laforce. 2002. Development of a probabilistic admittance policy for the Flemish harbours. In Proceedings of the PIANC 30th International Navigation Congress, Sydney , Australia, pp. 1299-1314.

Andrew, L.S. and F.D. John. 1998. Risk-Based Decisions for Entrance Channel Operation and Design. International Journal of Offshore and Polar Engineering 8(3): 2000-2006.

Quy, N.M. 2001. Feasibility Study Project of Expansion of Cam Pha Coal Port. Hanoi: Vietnam Coal Incorporation.

10.

Michael, R.N. , M.M. Charles , J.L. Richard and J.B. Mark. 1998. Simulation, Animation and Visualization of Seaport Operations. Simulation 71(2): 96-106.

11.

Journee, J.M.J. 2002. Introduction in Ship Hydro-Mechanics . Delft: Delft University of Technology , Netherlands.

12.

Cramer, E.H. and P.F. Hansen. 1994. Stochastic Modeling of Long Term Wave Induced Response of Ship Structure. Marine Structure 7: 537-566.

13.

Savenije, R.P.A.C. 1998. Safety Criteria for Approach Channels. Rotterdam: Ministry of Transport, Public Works and Water Management, Transport Research Center.

14.

Vrijling, J.K. 2004. Audit HARAP. Delft: Delft University of Technology, Netherlands.

15.

US Army Corps of Engineers. 2006. Hydraulic Design Guidance for Deep-Draft Navigation Projects , Washington DC: E.M. 1110-2-1613. US Army Corps of Engineers.

16.

Quy, N.M. , J.K. Vrijling , P.H.A.J.M. van Gelder , and R. Groenveld. 2007. Parametric Modeling of Ship Motion Responses for Risk-Based Optimization of Entrance Channel Depths. In Proceedings of 11th World Conference on Transportation Research, University of California, Berkeley, USA.

17.

Journee, J.M.J. 2001. User manual of SEAWAY. Delft: Delft University of Technology, Netherlands.

18.

Lin, Y.K. 1967. Probabilistic Theory of Structure Dynamics. New York: Mcgraw-Hill, Inc.

19.

Quy N.M. , J.K. Vrijling , P.H.A.J.M. van Gelder , and R. Groenveld. 2006. On the Assessment of Ship Grounding Risk in Restricted Channels. In Proceedings of 8th International Conference on Marine Sciences and Technologies. Festival and Congress Center-Varna, Bulgaria.

20.

Lin, S. , K. Powell , and N.M. Patrikalakis . 1998. Physical Risk Analysis of Ship Grounding. Washington DC: Marine Police Center, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution.

21.

Wendy, L.M. and R.M. Angel. 2002. Computational Statistics Handbook with MATLAB. London: Chapman and Hall/CRC.

22.

Memos, D. and K. Tzanis. 2000. Joint Distribution of Wave Heights and Periods in Waters of Any Depth. Journal of Waterway, Port, Coastal, and Ocean Engineering 126(3): 162-172.

23.

Repko, A. , P.H.A.J.M. van Gelder , H.G. Voortman , J.K. Vrijling. 2004. Bivariate Description of Offshore Wave Conditions with Physics-Based Extreme Value Statistics. Applied Ocean Research 26(3-4): 162-170.

24.

Demirci, E. 2003. Simulation modelling and analysis of a port investment. Simulation 79(2): 94-105.