A fire-spread simulation model developed as an extension of a dynamic percolation process model

Abstract

A stochastic model of a fire-spreading process has been devel oped to simulate pertinent time-dependent changes. This model has been obtained by extending an existing stochastic model in which the fire-spreading process is described as a percolation process. The extended model considers the time period from ignition to the point at which flames have spread to an unburnt unit. In this model, the above two quantities (the time required for ignition and that required for reading an unburnt unit) are treated as continuous random variables dependent upon the respective probabilities of blaze up and fire spread.

To evaluate this model, a Monte Carlo simulation system has been developed. Experiments on hypothetical and real city layouts show that this model is a useful simulation tool in studies con cerned with firefighting.

Keywords

city planning civil engineering environmental science model design Monte Carlo stochastic

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