A statistical expert system for simulation analysis

Efforts on a number of fronts are being made to enhance the usefulness of simulation as a tool for analysis. Graphical input, animation, automated program generation, model management utilities, and user interactive environments all address the issue of ease of use. Even with the current emphasis in this regard, simulation suffers from several shortcomings which preclude even greater application of the methodology. One of the more signifi cant limitations is the dependence of simulation on statistical methodologies. Practically every phase of simulation analysis in volves one or more statistical issues. And the fact of the matter is that many simulation practitioners have neither the statistical skills nor the access to qualified statisticians to effectively address these crucial issues.

The obvious solution to this problem would be to have an ex pert statistician available during every simulation study to answer any questions concerning statistical issues. A more practical alter native is to make available an expert system which could func tion as a statistical advisor to simulation analysts. This option seems ideally suited for expert system techniques since it is well- defined and narrowly bounded and an appropriate body of statistical knowledge exists.

The objective of this research was to develop such an expert statistical consultant. The system would be able to advise as well as perform appropriate computations for a variety of statistical issues including input data analysis, design of experiments, and output analysis. An overview of the proposed system is given and illustrations of the capabilities of the system are presented.