Changes at the Top: A Cross-country Examination over the 20th Century of the Rise (and Fall) in Rank of the Top Cities in National Urban Hierarchies

The paper documents the evolution of rank orders for cities at the top of national urban hierarchies (top 10 cities, where possible). Ranks for the year 2000 are compared with 1950 for 74 nations and with 1900 for 52 nations, covering 375 and 288 cities respectively. Rank correlations with the year 2000 are calculated for both years. The rank order of cities in Europe shows significantly less variation over time than those for the New World and developing nations, consistent with the view that urban hierarchies harden as they mature. Changes in rank at the very top (rank 1) are rare. Where they occur, such changes can often be traced to political events that alter the direction of trade or the city’s role as central place. The results provide evidence both for and against locational fundamentals and cumulative causation arguments. The entrenched advantages of the first big cities to emerge are undeniable; but ‘fundamentals’ can be undermined by political events and by technological change.