SENIORITY IN THE HOUSE

Many authors have noted the long-term trend toward an “aging” of the U.S. House of Representatives as members have increased re-election attempts and re-election successes. Recently, however, the long-term trend has been reversed. A common explanation for this reversal is that members have become disaffected with congressional careers. This article focuses on a neglected factor that complements disaffection in explaining the shift towards a more junior House. The long-term trend toward careerism in the House left that institution with comparatively small junior classes in the 1950s and 1960s. Thus, subsequent senior classes could not continue to grow as easily as they had in the past. Projections indicate that the trend toward a more junior House will continue in the foreseeable future.