Strategic Beliefs and the Formation of Enduring International Rivalries: Israel’s National Security Conception,1948–56

Knowledge about enduring rivalries has grown in the last decade, but their ideational foundations remain largely unexplored. A few studies have related the incrementalist pattern of rivalry formation to the impact of beliefs, but the same has not been attempted for the punctuated equilibrium pattern of evolution. The latter possibility is considered in this article, which argues that national security conceptions – as strategic belief systems – may have such an effect. This happens when the conjunction of early conflict events with certain components of the national security conception generate a protracted threat perception, leading to a rapid lock-in of the rivalry. Thereafter, the interaction stabilizes as a result of self-reinforcing cycles that engage beliefs, behavior, and outcomes in a vicious circle. These ideas are examined in the context of Israel’s national security conception, as it evolved during the early years of the Egyptian–Israeli rivalry.