In the face of the world recession, this article concentrates on analyzing and forecasting demand for outbound traveling in Australia, Canada, United States, Japan, and the EU-15 countries in terms of tourism imports at constant prices and exchange rates. Drawing on an analysis of the macroeconomic effects of the global recession and its impact on tourism demand for outbound traveling, the article develops forecasts for the period from 2009 to 2010. For 2010, two scenarios are created to project demand for foreign travel. The study is rounded off by a discussion of forecast uncertainties and open questions.
Enders, W. ( 2004). Applied Econometric Time Series. New York: John Wiley.
2.
European Travel Commission (ETC) (2009). European Tourism 2009-Trends & Prospects, Quarterly Report-Q2/2009. Brussels, Belgium: ETC.
3.
Hill, R.C., W.E. Griffiths, and G.C. Lim ( 2008). Principles of Econometrics. 3rd edition. Hoboken, New Jersey: Wiley.
4.
Hodrick, R., and E. Prescott ( 1997). "Post-War Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation " Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 29 (1): 1-16.
5.
International Monetary Fund (IMF) (2009). World Economic Outlook, July, 2009. Washington, US: International Monetary Fund.
6.
Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) (2009). OECD Economic Outlook, Vol. 2009/1, No. 85, June 2009. Paris: OECD.
7.
Robinson, J. ( 1947). Introduction to the Theory of Employment. Oxford, UK: Macmillan.
8.
Smeral, E. ( 1988). "Tourism Demand, Economic Theory and Econometrics: An Integrated Approach." Journal of Travel Research, 26 (4): 38-43.
9.
Smeral, E. ( 2007). "World Tourism Forecasting-Keep it Quick Simple and Dirty ." Tourism Economics, 13 (2): 309-317.
10.
Smeral, E. ( 2009). "The Impact of the Financial and Economic Crisis on European Tourism" Journal of Travel Research, 48 (1): 3-13.
11.
Smeral, E., and A. Weber ( 2000). "Forecasting International Tourism: Trends to 2010." Annals of Tourism Research, 27 (4): 982-1006.
12.
Smeral, E., and M. Wüger ( 2005). "Does Complexity matter? Methods for Improving Forecasting Accuracy in Tourism: The Case of Austria." Journal of Travel Research, 44 (1): 100-110.
13.
Song, H., and G. Li ( 2008). "Tourism Demand Modeling and Forecasting-A Review of Recent Research" Tourism Management, 29 (2): 203-220.
14.
Song, H., and Sh. Lin (2009). "Impacts of the Financial Crisis on Tourism in Asia" Journal of Travel Research, 49 (1): 16-30.
15.
Song, H., and St. Witt ( 2000). Tourism Demand Modelling and Forecasting. Amsterdam: Pergamon.
16.
Song, H., and St. Witt ( 2003). "Tourism Forecasting: The General-to-Specific Approach " Journal of Travel Research, 42 (1): 65-74.
17.
World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) (2009a). UNWTO World Tourism Barometer, 7 (2).
18.
Unwto (2009b). Tourism and Economic Stimulus-Initial Assessment. Madrid, Spain: UNWTO.
