Youth Perceptions of Law Enforcement and Worry About Crime from 1976 to 2016

Abstract

Recent unjust interactions between law enforcement and youth of color may have provoked a “crisis” in American law enforcement. Utilizing Monitoring the Future’s data on distinct, cross-sectional cohorts of 12th graders from each year spanning 1976–2016, we examined whether youth perceptions of law enforcement have changed. We also traced youth worry about crime considering declining perceptions of law enforcement may correspond with increasing worry about crime. Across decades, White youth consistently perceived law enforcement the most positively and worried least about crime, followed by Hispanic/Latinx then Black/African American youth. During the 1990s, among all youth, perceptions of law enforcement declined while worry about crime increased. However, recently, such trends were limited to White youth; among youth of color, perceptions of law enforcement declined while worry about crime remained largely stable. Problematically, youth perceptions of law enforcement recently reached a decades-long low and racial/ethnic gaps in perceptions appear to be growing.

Keywords

law enforcement procedural justice race policing fear of crime

Introduction

Perceptions of law enforcement are associated with deference to their authority, to crime reporting, and to crime commission (Bolger & Walters, 2019; Corsaro et al., 2015; Fagan & Tyler, 2005). Consequently, understanding perceptions of law enforcement has been argued to be “almost as important as the management of crime itself” (Sindall et al., 2012, p. 744). Indeed, improving perceptions of police and the justice system is a central component of modern criminological research and public policy (J. Jackson & Gau, 2016; Moule, Burruss, et al., 2019; Peyton et al., 2019; Walters, 2018; Walters & Bolger, 2018). In particular, researchers are also increasingly focusing on youth because perceptions developed during childhood and adolescence may set the tone for how youth view and interact with law enforcement into adulthood (Augustyn, 2016; Cavanagh & Cauffman, 2019; Granot & Tyler, 2019; D. B. Jackson et al., 2019; McLean et al., 2019; Nivette et al., 2020; Tyler & Trinkner, 2018).

In the United States, the relationship between law enforcement and youth of color has been long, complicated, and often unjust. Consider, for instance, the many recent high-profile deaths of unarmed youth of color (e.g., Michael Brown, Tamir Rice, Laquan McDonald). It is believed that these events have ignited a national conversation about law enforcement practices and have contributed to worsening perceptions of law enforcement (Fine, Rowan, & Simmons, 2019; Friedman, 2017; Trinkner, Kerrison, & Goff, 2019). From a historical perspective, some scholars believe that we have entered an “era of mistrust” in law enforcement (Trinkner & Tyler, 2016) or even a “crisis of confidence” (Tyler, Goff, & MacCoun, 2015). While researchers are beginning to identify developmental trends in youth perceptions of law enforcement and procedural justice (Augustyn, 2016; McLean et al., 2019), the empirical question of the extent to which youth perceptions of law enforcement have declined in recent years is largely unknown.

Simultaneously, research suggests that individuals who are afraid of crime report negative perceptions of law enforcement (e.g., Hauser & Kleck, 2017; Trinkner, Rodrigues, et al., 2019). Consequently, if America’s youth are reporting worse perceptions of law enforcement in recent years, it must be established whether this trend is merely indicative of increasing worry about crime. That is, to the extent that the present study reveals empirical evidence that American youth perceptions of law enforcement have been declining in recent years, we must also identify whether there are simultaneous shifts in youth worry about crime. To provide a comprehensive image of modern youth perceptions at the intersection of race, crime, and law enforcement in the United States, this study tracks youth perceptions of law enforcement and their worry about crime over the past 40 years.

Historical Trends in Public Relations with Law Enforcement

Despite current media attention, acrimonious relations between law enforcement and individuals of color are not a 21st-century phenomenon. In particular, consider the 1990s and the beating of Rodney King that precipitated the widely publicized Los Angeles riots (Murty et al., 1994). More than 90% of the nation was aware of the incident (Tuch & Weitzer, 1997). It is believed that as a result of ubiquitous media coverage that included violent video footage, perceptions of law enforcement declined among adults (McAneny, 1995), especially among Black/African Americans (Lasley, 1994; Tuch & Weitzer, 1997).

Yet at the same time, crime rates rose in the early 1990s and policing became more controlling and punitive (Feld, 1991; Scott & Steinberg, 2009). The 1990s were also marked by the sensationalized “rise of the super-predators” (Krisberg et al., 2009), in which youth were referred to as incorrigible, remorseless criminals who threatened public safety (Fox, 1996; Pizarro et al., 2007). The general population seized this language, and solidified the image of remorseless, teenage criminals as a major threat (DiIulio, 1995; Gilliam & Iyengar, 2005), particularly in the wake of the “Central Park Five” case concerning young males of color (Stratton, 2015). Although crime rates declined in the mid-1990s, media coverage of crime continued to increase (Goidel et al., 2006) and was consistently the top subject in local news (Klite et al., 1997). Combined with media coverage of the many fatal interactions between police and youth of color during the decade (e.g., Sexton, 1994), it is likely that America’s youth perceptions of law enforcement decreased and worry about crime increased during the 1990s.

In comparison with the 1990s, crime rates declined through the 2000s, and calls for punitive approaches similarly declined (Feld, 1991; Scott & Steinberg, 2009). Research suggests that public opinion largely shifted away from strong policing (e.g., law and order, zero tolerance, militarized policing) and incarceration in favor of a more rehabilitative model (Nagin et al., 2006). What remains to be examined, however, is whether youth perceptions of law enforcement improved during these decades. For instance, it is equally possible that youth perceptions of law enforcement rebounded during this period, or that the events of the 1990s had lasting effects on youth perceptions of law enforcement.

In recent years, national attention has again been captured by violent interactions between law enforcement and youth of color (Friedman, 2017, p. 5). As noted by Tyler and colleagues, in the space of 9 months in 2014, Americans were repeatedly shocked by police killings of four unarmed young Black/African American (henceforth Black, consistent with the coding in the Monitoring the Future [MTF] data) males (Tyler, Goff, & MacCoun, 2015). Scholars believe that the many recent unjust and highly publicized events may be provoking a sense of crisis in law enforcement (Tyler, Goff, & MacCoun, 2015).

Presently, the discussion of youth, race, and law enforcement in the United States is also focusing increasingly on Hispanic/Latinx (henceforth Hispanic, consistent with the coding in the MTF data) youth, the largest ethnic minority in the United States (U.S. Census Bureau, 2016). Hispanic individuals face more intense criminalization and policing than Whites, but less than Blacks (Hagan et al., 2005; Weitzer, 2014). One explanation for this phenomenon posits that policies that promote “crimmigration” (i.e., re-allocating criminal justice resources to immigration issues; Bersani et al., 2018; Macias-Rojas, 2016) may lead to racial profiling and to declining perceptions of law enforcement (Goff et al., 2013; Messing et al., 2015). Nonetheless, whether Hispanic youth perceptions have shifted across recent years is unknown, largely because of a dearth of research on Hispanic populations (Peck, 2015; Weitzer, 2014).

Perceptions of Law Enforcement and Worry About Crime

Individuals develop their perceptions of law enforcement from both personal and vicarious experiences (Fagan & Tyler, 2005; Piquero et al., 2005). That is, research suggests that individuals who are treated unfairly or hear of others being treated unfairly tend to develop more negative perceptions of law enforcement (Cavanagh & Cauffman, 2015; Fagan & Tyler, 2005; Kirk & Papachristos, 2011; Piquero et al., 2005; Walters, 2019). Considering negative perceptions of law enforcement may also reflect practices that are racially/ethnically biased (Brunson & Gau, 2015), it is unsurprising that Black individuals report the most negative perceptions of law enforcement, followed by Hispanic individuals (Lasley, 1994; Peck, 2015; Weitzer & Tuch, 2006). At the same time, the public views law enforcement as being responsible for controlling crime and keeping them safe. When concerns about crime rise, perceptions of law enforcement may fall. That is, when individuals become more afraid of crime in their communities, their trust and confidence in law enforcement—whom they consider deeply responsible for controlling crime and keeping them safe—may decline (Collins, 2016; Trinkner, Rodrigues, et al., 2019). Consequently, perceptions of law enforcement may reflect how much individuals are concerned about crime (Hauser & Kleck, 2017), although the directionality has not been established and findings are mixed (Sindall et al., 2012; Tyler, Jackson, & Mentovich, 2015).

The present study leverages nationally representative samples of youth from 1976 to 2016 to answer three questions. First, have youth perceptions of law enforcement shifted over the past 40 years? Second, have perceptions of law enforcement consistently differed between White youth and youth of color throughout the decades? Finally, do changes in youth perceptions of law enforcement correspond with simultaneous changes in youth worry about crime?

Method

Sample

Data were obtained from the MTF study (Johnston et al., 2015). Since 1976, MTF has conducted annual, cross-sectional, self-reported surveys of 12th-grade students (modal age = 18) in the 48 contiguous U.S. states. The data are not longitudinal, rather they are sequential cohorts of youth. MTF employs a multi-stage random sampling design with replacement. For instance, in 2015, approximately 13,700 youths were sampled in total. However, multiple questionnaires were distributed randomly to youth to increase coverage without burdening respondents with answering all questions. As a result, youth who answered the question pertaining to law enforcement were not the same youth who responded to the question pertaining to worry about crime. The wording of the two questions was consistent across years. This analysis included annual waves spanning 1976, through 2016.

Measures

Demographics

Prior to 2005, youth self-identified race/ethnicity was coded dichotomously into either White or non-White. Beginning in 2005, the racial/ethnic categorizations of the study were altered, yielding three self-identified categorizations of racial/ethnic identity: White, Hispanic, or Black.

Perceptions of Law Enforcement

Youth in each cohort were asked, “How good or bad a job is being done for the country as a whole by the police and other law enforcement agencies?” Responses were on a 5-point scale ranging from very poor to very good. The number of youth who responded to the perceptions of law enforcement item by race/ethnicity include 69,900 White (years 1976–2016), 9,411 non-White (years 1976–2004), 2,598 Black (years 2005–2016), and 3,406 Hispanic (years 2005–2016). Previous research indicates that youth in these data differentiate between law enforcement and other types of authority (Fine, Kan, & Cauffman, 2019).

Worry About Crime

Youth in each cohort were asked, “Of all the problems facing the nation today, how often do you worry about each of the following? Crime and violence.” Responses were on a 4-point scale ranging from never to often. However, as indicated in the Sample section, it is important to note that due to study design, these youth were not the same youth who were asked for perceptions of law enforcement. The number of youth who responded to the worry about crime item by race/ethnicity include 75,899 White (years 1976–2016), 10,710 non-White (years 1976–2004), 3,300 Black (years 2005–2016), and 4,419 Hispanic (years 2005–2016).

Analytic Plan

Historical trends in youth perceptions of law enforcement were modeled using population-average mean scores. The analyses proceeded in two stages. The first stage identified trends within each racial/ethnic group’s perceptions of law enforcement over time. The second stage identified differences between each racial and ethnic group. All models were repeated using the indicator of worry about crime. Effect sizes were assessed using bias-corrected Hedges’s g (Hedges & Olkin, 1985). Hedges’s g was computed by using the square root of the mean square error from the analysis of variance testing for differences between the two comparison groups. For instance, Hedges’s g can be used in the same way as a Cohen’s d to compare two groups (e.g., White youth from 1976 to White youth in 1977; White youth in 1976 to non-White youth in 1976). Hedge’s g is often preferred over Cohen’s d because it uses pooled weighted standard deviations and often has better properties when sample sizes between the comparison groups differ. Hedges’s g effect sizes are interpreted in the same way as Cohen’s d, such that a score of 0.25 would indicate that the difference between the groups is equivalent to one fourth of a standard deviation, and so on. Often, we present the average Hedges’s g for a decade, which indicates the average effect size difference between two groups (e.g., White vs. non-White) across the decade.

Results

Have Youth Perceptions of Law Enforcement Shifted over the Past 40 Years?

White Youth

As depicted in Figure 1 and Table 1, White youth perceptions of law enforcement remained moderately stable from the 1970s through 1990 (mean Hedges’s g¹ = −0.01; range Hedges’s g² = −0.07 to 0.08). As expected, White youth perceptions declined during the early 1990s (mean Hedges’s g = −0.04; range Hedges’s g = −0.12 to 0.10). However, during the 2000s, they improved to return to pre-1990s levels and remained stable from 2005 to 2013 (mean Hedges’s g = 0.00). Importantly, White youth perceptions of law enforcement declined from 2013 to 2014 (ΔM = −0.10, p = .031, Hedges’s g = −0.10, 95% confidence interval [CI] [−0.18, −0.01]) and again from 2014 to 2015 (ΔM = −0.14, p = .006, Hedges’s g = −0.13, 95% CI [−0.21, −0.04]) before improving from 2015 to 2016 (ΔM = 0.25, p < .001, Hedges’s g = 0.22, 95% CI [−0.13, 0.31]).

Figure 1:

Youth Perceptions of Law Enforcement: 1976–2016

Table 1:

White and Non-White Youth Within-Race Change (vs. Previous Year) on Perceptions of Law Enforcement: 1977–2016

Year	White vs. previous year				Non-White vs. previous year
Year	Mean difference	p	Hedges’s g	95% CI for g	Mean difference	p	Hedges’s g	95% CI for g
1977	0.03	.23	−0.03	[−0.09, 0.02]	0.07	.39	0.06	[−0.08, 0.21]
1978	0.01	.85	0.01	[−0.05, 0.06]	−0.12	.09	−0.12	[−0.26, 0.02]
1979	−0.03	.34	−0.03	[−0.08, 0.03]	0.15	.08	0.14	[−0.01, 0.29]
1980	0.03	.34	0.03	[−0.03, 0.08]	−0.09	.29	−0.09	[−0.24, 0.07]
1981	−0.07**	.01	−0.07	[−0.13, −0.02]	−0.06	.46	−0.05	[−0.19, 0.09]
1982	0.07*	.01	0.07	[0.02, 0.12]	0.22**	.00	0.20	[0.07, 0.34]
1983	0.04	.11	0.05	[−0.01, 0.10]	−0.04	.61	−0.04	[−0.17, 0.10]
1984	−0.05	.10	−0.05	[−0.10, 0.01]	0.07	.36	0.07	[−0.07, 0.20]
1985	0.04	.11	0.05	[−0.01, 0.10]	0.05	.50	0.05	[−0.09, 0.18]
1986	0.04	.13	0.05	[−0.01, 0.10]	−0.07	.34	−0.07	[−0.21, 0.07]
1987	−0.03	.35	−0.03	[−0.09, 0.03]	−0.08	.31	−0.08	[−0.23, 0.07]
1988	−0.03	.35	−0.03	[−0.09, 0.03]	−0.12	.14	−0.11	[−0.27, 0.04]
1989	−0.08*	.01	−0.08	[−0.14, −0.02]	0.01	.90	0.01	[−0.14, 0.16]
1990	−0.01	.74	−0.01	[−0.08, 0.05]	−0.06	.48	−0.06	[−0.22, 0.11]
1991	−0.12***	.00	−0.12	[−0.19, −0.05]	−0.52***	.00	−0.52	[−0.69, −0.35]
1992	−0.06	.08	−0.06	[−0.13, 0.01]	0.01	.92	0.01	[−0.14, 0.16]
1993	0.06	.11	0.05	[−0.01, 0.12]	−0.15	.07	−0.14	[−0.29, 0.01]
1994	−0.01	.88	−0.01	[−0.07, 0.06]	0.33***	.00	0.31	[0.15, 0.48]
1995	0.02	.49	0.02	[−0.04, 0.09]	0.10	.29	0.09	[−0.08, 0.27]
1996	−0.04	.26	−0.04	[−0.11, 0.03]	−0.06	.51	−0.05	[−0.22, 0.11]
1997	0.10**	.01	0.10	[0.02, 0.17]	−0.01	.87	−0.01	[−0.17, 0.14]
1998	0.01	.70	0.01	[−0.06, 0.09]	0.25**	.00	0.23	[0.07, 0.39]
1999	0.05	.16	0.05	[−0.02, 0.13]	0.08	.41	0.07	[−0.10, 0.23]
2000	0.02	.68	0.02	[−0.06, 0.09]	−0.18	.06	−0.16	[−0.33, 0.01]
2001	0.02	.69	0.02	[−0.06, 0.10]	0.06	.51	0.06	[−0.11, 0.23]
2002	0.16***	.00	0.16	[0.08, 0.24]	0.21*	.04	0.20	[0.01, 0.38]
2003	0.03	.44	0.03	[−0.05, 0.11]	0.03	.74	0.03	[−0.15, 0.22]
2004	−0.09*	.02	−0.09	[−0.16, −0.01]	−0.17	.08	−0.16	[−0.33, 0.02]
2005	0.03	.49	0.03	[−0.05, 0.10]
2006	−0.09**	.03	−0.08	[−0.16, −0.01]
2007	0.00	.99	0.00	[−0.08, 0.07]
2008	0.00	1.00	0.00	[−0.08, 0.08]
2009	−0.01	.90	0.00	[−0.09, 0.08]
2010	−0.03	.43	−0.03	[−0.11, 0.05]
2011	0.04	.39	0.04	[−0.05, 0.12]
2012	−0.02	.58	−0.02	[−0.11, 0.06]
2013	0.07	.11	0.07	[−0.02, 0.15]
2014	−0.10*	.03	−0.10	[−0.18, −0.01]
2015	−0.14**	.01	−0.13	[−0.21, −0.04]
2016	0.25***	.00	0.22	[0.13, 0.31]

Note. CI = confidence interval.

p < .05. **p < .01. ***p < .001.

Non-White Youth

As depicted in Figure 1 and Table 1, non-White youth perceptions of law enforcement remained moderately consistent during the 1970s (mean Hedges’s g = 0.03) and 1980s (mean Hedges’s g = −0.01). However, during the early 1990s, non-White youth perceptions declined significantly (mean Hedges’s g = −0.18), particularly from 1990 to 1991 (mean Hedges’s g = −0.52) at a rate approximately 4 times larger than the decline in White youth perceptions. From the late 1990s to 2004, non-White youth perceptions increased steadily (mean Hedges’s g = 0.05).

Black and Hispanic Youth

Beginning in 2005 (Table 2), the data for non-White youth were separated into either Hispanic or Black. From 2006 to 2013, both Hispanic youth perceptions (mean Hedges’s g = −0.02) and Black youth perceptions (mean Hedges’s g = 0.02) fluctuated but remained moderately stable. However, similar to trends observed with White youth, both Hispanic and Black youth attitudes began declining in 2014. Both Hispanic (ΔM = −0.35, p < .001, Hedges’s g = −0.31, 95% CI [−0.47, −0.15]) and Black (ΔM = −0.50, p < .001, Hedges’s g = −0.39, 95% CI [−0.59, −0.20]) youth perceptions of police declined rapidly from 2014 to 2015. Black youth perceptions plateaued from 2015 to 2016 whereas Hispanic youth perceptions increased (ΔM = 0.21, p = .03, Hedges’s g = 0.18, 95% CI [0.02, 0.35]). Black youth perceptions plateaued from 2015 to 2016 whereas Hispanic youth perceptions increased (ΔM = 0.21, p = .03, Hedges’s g = 0.18, 95% CI [0.02, 0.35]).

Table 2:

Black and Hispanic Youth Within-Race Change (vs. Previous Year) on Perceptions of Law Enforcement: 2006–2016

Year	Black vs. previous year				Hispanic vs. previous year
Year	Mean difference	p	Hedges’s g	95% CI for g	Mean difference	p	Hedges’s g	95% CI for g
2006	−0.21	.05	−0.19	[−0.37, 0.00]	−0.23*	.03	−0.20	[−0.38, −0.02]
2007	0.26*	.01	0.24	[0.06, 0.42]	0.02	.80	0.02	[−0.15, 0.19]
2008	−0.23*	.02	−0.21	[−0.39, −0.03]	0.01	.90	0.01	[−0.15, 0.17]
2009	0.21*	.05	0.19	[0.00, 0.39]	0.17*	.04	0.17	[0.01, 0.33]
2010	0.06	.60	0.05	[−0.14, 0.24]	−0.21*	.02	−0.19	[−0.35, −0.03]
2011	0.10	.32	0.09	[−0.09, 0.26]	0.15	.09	0.14	[−0.02, 0.30]
2012	−0.28*	.01	−0.24	[−0.43, −0.06]	−0.10	.27	−0.09	[−0.26, 0.07]
2013	0.26*	.03	0.23	[0.02, 0.44]	0.01	.95	0.01	[−0.16, 0.17]
2014	−0.15	.24	−0.13	[−0.34, 0.08]	−0.08	.40	−0.07	[−0.23, 0.09]
2015	−0.50***	.00	−0.39	[−0.59, −0.20]	−0.35***	.00	−0.31	[−0.47, −0.15]
2016	0.03	.77	0.03	[−0.16, 0.22]	0.21*	.03	0.18	[0.02, 0.35]

Note. CI = confidence interval.

p < .05. ***p < .001.

Have Perceptions of Law Enforcement Consistently Differed Between White and Non-White Youth?

Non-White youth perceptions of law enforcement were compared with White youth perceptions during each year from 1976 through 2004. Non-White youth consistently reported more negative perceptions of law enforcement than White youth during the 1970s (mean Hedges’s g³ = −0.28) and 1980s (mean Hedges’s g = −0.24). As expected, the differences between the groups increased during the 1990s (mean Hedges’s g = −0.51). Non-White youth continued to report more negative perceptions than White youth through 2004 (mean Hedges’s g = −0.45), although compared with the gap during the 1990s, the gap in perceptions during the early 2000s slightly declined.

From 2005 through 2016, White youth reported more positive perceptions than Hispanic youth (mean Hedges’s g = 0.21) and Black youth (mean Hedges’s g = 0.43). Hispanic youth also reported more positive perceptions than Black youth (mean Hedges’s g = 0.19). The differences between White and Hispanic youth were generally of the same magnitude as the differences between Hispanic and Black youth from 2005 through 2016.

However, the difference between Black and White youth increased from 2014 to 2015 and, importantly, reached its largest difference in recent years. From 2015 to 2016, the difference between Black and White youth perceptions of law enforcement reached a historical high, with Black youth perceptions reaching almost a full standard deviation lower than White youth (ΔM = −0.91, p < .001, Hedges’s g = −0.79, 95% CI [−0.96, −0.63]). Similarly, even though the difference between Hispanic and White youth increased from 2014 to 2015 (ΔM = −0.42, p < .001, Hedges’s g = −0.36, 95% CI [−0.49, −0.23]), it reached a historically high difference from 2015 to 2016 (ΔM = −0.46, p < .001, Hedges’s g = −0.41, 95% CI [−0.55, −0.27]). This suggests that the perception gap between Black and White youth or Hispanic and White youth may be increasing with time and the gap may be historically high. A more conservative interpretation, however, is that in 2016, the racial/ethnic gap in perceptions of law enforcement grew to its widest point in over a decade.

Has Worry About Crime Increased in Recent Years?

White Youth

As depicted in Figure 2, Table 3, and Table 4, White youth worry about crime remained moderately stable from the 1970s through 1990 (mean Hedges’s g = 0.00; range Hedges’s g = −0.15 to 0.29). As expected, White youth worry about crime increased during the early 1990s (mean Hedges’s g = 0.06; range Hedges’s g = −0.06 to 0.17). However, during the 2000s, their worry about crime declined to pre-1990s levels (mean Hedges’s g 1994–2003 = −0.06; range Hedges’s g = −0.21 to 0.11). Worry remained relatively stable until 2014 (mean Hedges’s g = 0.00). However, White youth worry about crime again significantly increased from 2014 to 2015 (ΔM = 0.10, p = .004, Hedges’s g = 0.12,] 0.04, 0.20) before plateauing from 2015 to 2016. 0.04, 0.20” for clarity in the sentence beginning “However, White youth worry about crime again . . . ” and edit as needed.]

Figure 2:

Youth Worry About Crime: 1976–2016

Table 3:

White and Non-White Youth Within-Race Change (vs. Previous Year) on Worry About Crime: 1977–2016

Year	White vs. previous year				Non-White vs. previous year
Year	Mean difference	p	Hedges’s g	95% CI for g	Mean difference	p	Hedges’s g	95% CI for g
1977	−0.01	.75	−0.01	[−0.06, 0.05]	−0.05	.33	−0.07	[−0.20, 0.07]
1978	−0.05*	.02	−0.06	[−0.11, −0.01]	−0.04	.36	−0.06	[−0.19, 0.07]
1979	−0.07**	.00	−0.09	[−0.14, −0.04]	−0.04	.49	−0.05	[−0.20, 0.09]
1980	−0.12***	.00	−0.15	[−0.21, −0.10]	−0.10	.11	−0.12	[−0.27, 0.03]
1981	0.22***	.00	0.29	[0.23, 0.34]	0.23***	.00	0.30	[0.17, 0.43]
1982	−0.07***	.00	−0.10	[−0.15, −0.05]	−0.09	.06	−0.12	[−0.25, 0.01]
1983	−0.03	.14	−0.04	[−0.10, 0.01]	0.02	.63	0.03	[−0.10, 0.17]
1984	−0.05*	.03	−0.06	[−0.12, 0.00]	−0.09	.06	−0.12	[−0.26, 0.01]
1985	−0.06**	.01	−0.08	[−0.14, −0.02]	−0.03	.49	−0.05	[−0.18, 0.08]
1986	−0.06**	.01	−0.08	[−0.14, −0.02]	−0.07	.20	−0.09	[−0.23, 0.05]
1987	0.03	.13	0.04	[−0.01, 0.10]	0.12*	.03	0.16	[0.01, 0.30]
1988	0.08***	.00	0.11	[0.05, 0.17]	0.01	.89	0.01	[−0.13, 0.15]
1989	0.05*	.05	0.06	[0.00, 0.12]	0.15**	.00	0.21	[0.06, 0.35]
1990	0.08***	.00	0.11	[0.05, 0.17]	−0.02	.70	−0.03	[−0.20, 0.13]
1991	−0.04	.08	−0.06	[−0.12, 0.01]	0.04	.44	0.07	[−0.10, 0.23]
1992	0.12***	.00	0.17	[0.10, 0.23]	0.11**	.01	0.20	[0.05, 0.34]
1993	0.02	.42	0.03	[−0.04, 0.09]	−0.06	.12	−0.11	[−0.25, 0.03]
1994	0.08**	.00	0.11	[0.05, 0.18]	−0.13*	.01	−0.19	[−0.35, −0.04]
1995	−0.08***	.00	−0.12	[−0.18, −0.05]	0.08	.16	0.11	[−0.04, 0.27]
1996	−0.05	.06	−0.07	[−0.13, 0.00]	−0.04	.37	−0.07	[−0.21, 0.08]
1997	−0.11***	.00	−0.14	[−0.21, −0.07]	−0.03	.56	−0.04	[−0.18, 0.10]
1998	−0.08**	.00	−0.10	[−0.17, −0.03]	−0.09	.09	−0.13	[−0.27, 0.02]
1999	−0.03	.30	−0.04	[−0.11, 0.03]	−0.08	.22	−0.10	[−0.26, 0.06]
2000	0.00	.97	0.00	[−0.07, 0.07]	0.04	.49	0.06	[−0.10, 0.21]
2001	−0.06	.06	−0.07	[−0.15, 0.00]	−0.04	.50	−0.05	[−0.21, 0.10]
2002	−0.12***	.00	−0.15	[−0.22, −0.07]	−0.20**	.00	−0.26	[−0.42, −0.09]
2003	−0.17***	.00	−0.21	[−0.28, −0.14]	−0.08	.29	−0.09	[−0.25, 0.08]
2004	0.11***	.00	0.14	[0.07, 0.21]	0.13	.07	0.15	[−0.01, 0.31]
2005	−0.03	.36	−0.03	[−0.10, 0.04]
2006	0.00	.99	0.00	[−0.07, 0.07]
2007	0.08	.01	0.09	[0.02, 0.16]
2008	0.06	.06	0.07	[0.00, 0.14]
2009	−0.08*	.01	−0.10	[−0.17, −0.02]
2010	0.01	.87	0.01	[−0.07, 0.08]
2011	−0.01	.74	−0.01	[−0.09, 0.06]
2012	−0.06	.07	−0.07	[−0.14, 0.00]
2013	0.04	.17	0.05	[−0.02, 0.13]
2014	0.03	.43	0.03	[−0.05, 0.11]
2015	0.10**	.00	0.12	[0.04, 0.20]
2016	−0.02	.51	−0.03	[−0.11, 0.05]

Note. CI = confidence interval.

p < .05. **p < .01. ***p < .001.

Table 4:

Black and Hispanic Youth Within-Race Change (vs. Previous Year) on Worry About Crime: 2006-2016

Year	Black vs. previous year				Hispanic .vs previous year
Year	Mean difference	p	Hedges’s g	95% CI for g	Mean difference	p	Hedges’s g	95% CI for g
2006	0.00	0.98	0.00	[−0.18, 0.17]	−0.01	0.89	−0.01	[−0.17, 0.15]
2007	0.08	0.27	0.09	[−0.07, 0.26]	0.11	0.08	0.14	[−0.02, 0.29]
2008	−0.05	0.48	−0.06	[−0.22, 0.10]	−0.02	0.70	−0.03	[−0.18, 0.12]
2009	0.08	0.26	0.10	[−0.07, 0.27]	−0.08	0.16	−0.10	[−0.24, 0.04]
2010	−0.11	0.11	−0.14	[−0.30, 0.03]	−0.09	0.12	−0.11	[−0.26, 0.03]
2011	0.06	0.39	0.07	[−0.09, 0.22]	−0.01	0.88	−0.01	[−0.16, 0.14]
2012	−0.03	0.72	−0.03	[−0.20, 0.14]	0.05	0.44	0.06	[−0.09, 0.22]
2013	0.04	0.59	0.05	[−0.13, 0.23]	−0.08	0.21	−0.10	[−0.26, 0.06]
2014	−0.04	0.63	−0.04	[−0.22, 0.13]	0.09	0.18	0.10	[−0.05, 0.25]
2015	0.05	0.45	0.06	[−0.10, 0.23]	0.06	0.36	0.07	[−0.07, 0.20]
2016	−0.05	0.48	−0.06	[−0.22, 0.10]	0.02	0.74	0.02	[−0.12, 0.17]

Note. CI = confidence interval.

Non-White Youth

As depicted in Figure 2 and Table 3, non-White youth worry about crime remained moderately consistent from the 1970s through the 1980s. However, during the early 1990s, non-White youth worry about crime increased, particularly from 1988 to 1989 (mean Hedges’s g = 0.15, p = .004, 95% CI [0.06, 0.35]) and from 1991 to 1992 (mean Hedges’s g = 0.11, p = .007, 95% CI [0.05, 0.34]). From the late 1990s to 2004, non-White youth worry about crime declined consistently (mean Hedges’s g = −0.06).

Black and Hispanic Youth

From 2006 to 2015, both Hispanic youth worry (mean Hedges’s g = −0.02) and Black youth worry (mean Hedges’s g = 0.01) about crime fluctuated year to year, but overall remained moderately stable, with few-to-no significant changes wave-over-wave (Table 4).

Historical Trends Between Racial/Ethnic Groups

As compared with White youth, non-White youth consistently reported more worry about crime during the 1970s, mean Hedges’s g (see Note 3) = 0.34, 1980s (mean Hedges’s g = 0.43), 1990s (mean Hedges’s g = 0.41), and 2000s (mean Hedges’s g = 0.40). From 2009 through 2016, Black youth generally reported more worry about crime than Hispanic youth (mean Hedges’s g = 0.21), and Hispanic youth generally reported more worry about crime than White youth (mean Hedges’s g = 0.25). The differences in worry about crime do not appear to be growing or shrinking in recent years. For comparison, recall that in 2015, the racial/ethnic gap in perceptions of law enforcement grew to its widest point in over a decade. However, the differences between Black youth versus Hispanic youth worry about crime, and between Hispanic youth versus White youth worry about crime, remained consistent during these years.

Discussion

It is vital to understand how youth perceive law enforcement considering (a) perceptions of law enforcement are associated with obedience to police commands, crime reporting, and crime commission (Corsaro et al., 2015; Fagan & Tyler, 2005; Tyler, Goff, & MacCoun, 2015) and (b) perceptions developed during adolescence may set the tone for how youth view and interact with law enforcement into adulthood (Augustyn, 2016; McLean et al., 2019). The current study illustrates that from 1976 to 2016, America’s youth perceptions of law enforcement and worry about crime shifted in systematic ways that extend beyond small fluctuations in cohorts’ opinions. The present study uncovers several larger trends. First, consistent with recent Gallup (Jones, 2015) and Pew (Morin & Stepler, 2016) polling data of adults, across virtually all years from 1976 to 2016, White youth held the most positive views of law enforcement and were least worried about crime, followed by Hispanic youth, then Black youth. These findings are also consistent with empirical studies on racial/ethnic differences in perceptions of law enforcement (e.g., Lasley, 1994; Peck, 2015; Weitzer & Tuch, 2006) as well as of worry or fear about crime (May et al., 2015).

Perhaps more interestingly, the study contrasts two eras: the early 1990s and the most recent few years of the study. The early 1990s are a particularly interesting time in the United States for a variety of reasons. Specifically, recall the police beating of Rodney King (Murty et al., 1994), the “Central Park Five” case concerning young males of color (Stratton, 2015), erupting national conversations surrounding policing practices (Tuch & Weitzer, 1997), and the significant crime wave. The data indicated that during the 1990s, worry about crime peaked while perceptions of law enforcement reached historic lows. Furthermore, perceptions of law enforcement declined more rapidly among youth of color. Considering most of the individuals affected by both crime and policing practices in the 1990s were Black or Hispanic youth (Tonry & Melewski, 2008) and the subtext of the era’s super-predator rhetoric connected racial/ethnic minority youth to criminal behavior (Dorfman & Schiraldi, 2001; Gilliam & Iyengar, 2005), it is rational that perceptions of law enforcement among youth of color during the early 1990s declined more rapidly than for White youth. Indeed, this view would align with a relational mechanism, such that youth of color in particular may perceive law enforcement negatively partly because they view their practices as biased. However, White youth perceptions of law enforcement also declined during the era. The fact that their perceptions of law enforcement declined can likely be explained by their increasing fear of crime in light of the crime wave. Indeed, an instrumental interpretation would suggest that youth would perceive law enforcement negatively during these years because they see law enforcement as ineffective at preventing crime. Altogether, these findings may indicate that during the 1990s, declining perceptions of law enforcement may have been, in part, attributable to an increasing worry about crime tied to the substantial crime rates.

Turning to the current era, the data illuminate several interesting trends, particularly compared with the early 1990s. Contrary to the 1990s, crime rates in the United States have been consistently declining in recent years (Friedman et al., 2017). One might reasonably expect that given the consistent declines, worry about crime might also decline, or at the very least remain stable, in recent years. Yet the data indicated that from 2013 to 2015, White youth worry about crime increased. In line with an instrumental interpretation, it would be reasonable to expect that White youth would perceive law enforcement more negatively during these years because they see law enforcement as more ineffective at preventing crime. Indeed, during these years, White youth did report corresponding shifts in perceptions of law enforcement. Generally, then, the results for White youth in recent years are largely consistent with findings that emerged during the 1990s; White youth declining perceptions of law enforcement may again be tied to their increasing worry about crime.

We now turn to youth of color. Recall that in light of the fact that crime rates in the United States have been consistently declining in recent years (Friedman et al., 2017), it would be reasonable to expect that youth would report less (or stable) worry about crime. Indeed, the data indicated that among youth of color, worry about crime remained relatively stable in recent years. Consequently, an instrumental perspective would suggest that considering their worry about crime remained stable, perceptions of law enforcement among youth of color would either improve or remain largely stable in recent years. However, the data indicated quite clearly that among youth of color, perceptions of law enforcement declined rapidly and substantially during recent years, particularly from 2013 to 2015. Consequently, we suggest that the rapidly declining perceptions of law enforcement among Black and Hispanic youth in recent years do not appear to be tied to increasing worry about crime because their worry about crime has remained relatively flat. This finding uniquely suggests that for youth of color, declining perceptions of law enforcement in recent years is unlikely explained by simply becoming more afraid of crime.⁴

The diverging trends among youth of color raise the question about what might be unique in the modern era that may contribute to their declining perceptions of law enforcement. We believe it highly plausible that declining perceptions of law enforcement among youth of color, and among White youth to some extent, might be attributable to the historical climate and national conversations surrounding unjust policing. In particular, consider the marked decline in perceptions of law enforcement among youth of color from 2014 to 2015. As Tyler and colleagues noted, in just 9 months during 2014, Americans were repeatedly shocked by the media coverage of the deaths of five young Black males at the hands of law enforcement (Tyler, Goff, & MacCoun, 2015). This includes Eric Garner, Michael Brown, Ezell Ford, Walter Scott, and Tamir Rice. The events occurred across the country and often generated protests that lasted for weeks to months. As others have written, these events ignited widespread criticism of law enforcement (Tyler, Goff, & MacCoun, 2015). Considering individuals develop their perceptions of law enforcement from both personal and vicarious experiences (Fagan & Tyler, 2005; Piquero et al., 2005), the relational perspective would suggest that the sharpest declines in youth perceptions of law enforcement would follow these events. Indeed, the data appear to be entirely consistent with that notion.

Altogether, these findings indicate that among White youth, worry about crime and perceptions of law enforcement appear to have been tied together during both the 1990s and mid-2010s. In contrast, whereas worry about crime and perceptions of law enforcement may have been tied together during the 1990s for youth of color, they appear to be more separable in recent years, suggesting that any recent “crisis” of confidence in law enforcement among youth of color is not merely attributable to increasing worry about crime.

A notable strength of the current study is the use of data that spans decades. Data were collected during years marked by varying cultural climates and by various police–citizen interactions, many of which gained media attention and others that did not. As such, the data uniquely contribute a historical, yearly snapshot of youth perceptions of the police across the United States. Despite this strength, several limitations are important to keep in mind. First, the current data included one item to assess each outcome. The measure of perceptions of law enforcement likely aligns with police effectiveness, which is associated with perceived unjust policing (Corsaro et al., 2015) as well as the broader construct of legitimacy (Tankebe, 2013). While some studies have found that procedural fairness, distributive fairness, lawfulness, and effectiveness are constituent parts of legitimacy (e.g., Tankebe, 2013), the debate over measurement continues (J. Jackson, 2018; Moule, Burruss, et al., 2019). Future research would benefit from a multi-item measure that taps different dimensions (Tankebe et al., 2016). Second, the study design was such that multiple questionnaire forms were distributed randomly to participants to reduce the burden to respondents while maximizing item coverage. As a result, the youth who reported on worry about crime were not the same youth who reported their perceptions of law enforcement. However, given the randomized distribution of questionnaire forms, there is no reason to believe that the reported trends are unreliable. Third, we were unable to decipher specifically which events shaped youth perceptions (Fine, Rowan, & Simmons, 2019). In recent years, the United States has experienced many high-profile, unjust interactions between law enforcement and the community they are charged with protecting and serving (e.g., Freddie Gray, Alton Sterling, Philando Castile). However, the dataset does not include a variety of indicators (e.g., awareness of particular events, specific location, or date they completed the survey) that would enable us to evaluate views before and after specific incidents (Lacoe & Stein, 2018; White et al., 2018).

Conclusion

The data illustrate that the degree of the racial/ethnic discrepancy in youth perceptions of law enforcement has varied over the decades. That is, the discrepancy in non-White and White youth perceptions of law enforcement has changed in accordance with the historical sociopolitical climate, and the dynamic changes are observable on a national group level. In light of the ubiquitous media coverage on fatal police shootings (Moule, Parry, & Fox, 2019; Hitlin & Vogt, 2014; Reyes & Houston, 2019), it might be expected that racial/ethnic discrepancies in perceptions of law enforcement would shrink in recent years. That is, the study might uncover empirical evidence of a “collective consciousness” (Friedman, 2017, p. 6). However, the difference between White youth and either Hispanic or Black youth increased from 2014 to 2015 and again from 2015 to 2016—reaching historic highs. In fact, in the most recent year, Black youth perceptions reached almost a full standard deviation lower than White youth. Time will tell whether the effects uncovered in these data are momentary, yet the data suggest that the perception gap between White youth and youth of color may be increasing with time. A more conservative interpretation, however, is that in 2016, the racial/ethnic gap in perceptions of law enforcement grew to its widest point in over a decade.

Unfortunately, Black and Hispanic individuals disproportionately receive more procedurally unjust treatment at the hands of law enforcement (Jackson & Gau, 2016; Peck, 2015). The fact that over the past 40 years, Black and Hispanic youth perceptions of law enforcement demonstrated a larger magnitude of change from year to year as compared with White youth suggests that their perceptions may be more strongly affected by changes in policing practices. Although tentative, this may indicate that policies and protocols that influence police–community interactions could have stronger impacts in non-White compared with White communities. This is hopeful in the sense that “just” police practices may have the potential to drastically improve non-White youth perceptions of law enforcement in a short period of time. On the contrary, this also suggests that “unjust” police practices may have especially detrimental effects in non-White communities. Considering that the data also provide evidence that across races, youth perceptions of law enforcement recently reached the lowest point in over a decade, the implications are clear: Policymakers and practitioners must focus primarily on improving biased and unjust policing practices on the ground (e.g., Mazerolle & Terrill, 2018; Swencionis & Goff, 2017) and secondarily on efforts that build legitimacy (O’Brien et al., 2019) and promote “public trust by initiating positive non-enforcement activities to engage communities” (President’s Task Force on 21st Century Policing, 2015, p. 2; see also Fine, Padilla, & Tapp, 2019).

Footnotes

Authors’ Note:

The authors thank Danielle Wallace and Dustin Pardini for their comments on the analyses and the anonymous reviewers for their constructive feedback.

ORCID iD

Adam D. Fine

Notes

Adam D. Fine is an assistant professor in the School of Criminology and Criminal Justice at Arizona State University. His research focuses on two areas: how juvenile probation processes affect youth offending, employment, education, and attitudes, and how youth develop their perceptions of the law, law enforcement, and the justice system.

Sachiko Donley completed her PhD in developmental psychology at the University of California, Irvine, completed a post-doctoral fellowship in the psychology department at Princeton University, and is now the Director of Studies in Wilson College at Princeton University. Her research focuses on adolescent decision-making under stress, implicit bias, and disparities in student academic outcomes.

Caitlin Cavanagh is an assistant professor in the School of Criminal Justice at Michigan State University. Through her research, she examines how social contexts shape adolescent behavior among justice-involved youth to improve how the juvenile justice system interfaces with youth and their families.

Elizabeth Cauffman is a professor of psychological science at the University of California, Irvine. Her research focuses on topics in the study of contemporary adolescence, including adolescent brain development, risk-taking and decision-making, and juvenile justice.

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