Describing the Hazard of Recidivism Among Individuals Convicted of Sex-Related Offenses: Results From a Long-Term Follow-Up in Michigan

Abstract

This study uses administrative data from Michigan to present a descriptive analysis of recidivism hazard among a large cohort of individuals convicted of sex-related offenses (ICSOs) (N = 23,621) with an average follow-up of 10.5 years, up to a maximum of 15 years. Using Bayesian discrete-time survival models, we find within 15 years 19% of this cohort of ICSOs was returned to prison, for either a new crime or technical violation, or received a new probation sentence. Sexual recidivism was rare. With the caveat that demographic information on the sample was not available for statistical controls, we found risk was higher among those released from prison without supervision (“max outs”). As the hazard of recidivism was relatively higher in the first year at risk, and then gradually dissipated, the findings reiterate the importance of front-loading supervision services and intensity toward the earlier periods of time at risk in the community.

Keywords

recidivism sex offenses survival analysis

Get full access to this article

View all access options for this article.

References

Abbott

B. R.

(2020). Illuminating the dark figure of sexual recidivism. Behavioral Sciences & the Law, 38(6), 543–558. https://doi.org/10.1002/bsl.2494

Allison

P. D.

(2014). Event history and survival analysis: Regression for longitudinal event data (Vol. 46). Sage. https://doi.org/10.4135/9781452270029

Alper

Durose

(2019). Recidivism of sex offenders released from state prison: A 9-year follow-up (2005-14) (Bureau of Justice Statistics NCJ 251773). U.S. Department of Justice. https://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/rsorsp9yfu0514.pdf

Alper

Durose

M. R.

Markman

(2018). 2018 update on prisoner recidivism: A 9-year follow-up period (2005-2014) (Bureau of Justice Statistics Special Report NCJ 250875). U.S. Department of Justice.

Azizian

Olver

M. E.

Rokop

D’Orazio

D. M.

(2022). A preliminary analysis of sexual recidivism and predictive validity of the Static-99R in men discharged from state hospitals pursuant to California’s Sexually Violent Predator Act. Sexual Abuse, 34(3), 319–340. https://doi.org/10.1177/10790632211019726

Bench

L. L.

Allen

T. D.

(2013). Assessing sex offender recidivism using multiple measures: A longitudinal analysis. The Prison Journal, 93(4), 411–428. https://doi.org/10.1177/0032885513500765

Bonta

Andrews

D. A.

(2007). Risk-need-responsivity model for offender assessment and rehabilitation. Rehabilitation, 6(1), 1–22.

Brouillette-Alarie

Lee

S. C.

Longpré

Babchishin

K. M.

(2023). An examination of the latent Constructs in risk tools for individuals who sexually offend: Applying multidimensional item response theory to the Static-2002R. Assessment, 30(4), 1249–1264. https://doi.org/10.1177/10731911221076373

Bürkner

P. C.

(2017). brms: An R package for Bayesian multilevel models using Stan. Journal of Statistical Software, 80(1), 1–28. https://doi.org/10.18637/jss.v080.i01

10.

Carr

A. E.

Willis

G. M.

(2022). Balancing political and criminogenic needs: Evaluating the New Zealand Department of Corrections’ response to men assessed with a below average risk for sexual recidivism. Sexual Abuse, 34(4), 456–482. https://doi.org/10.1177/10790632211042365

11.

Carter

M. M.

Sankovitz

R. J.

(2014). Dosage probation: Rethinking the structure of probation sentences. Center for Effective Public Policy. https://www.ojp.gov/ncjrs/virtual-library/abstracts/dosage-probation-rethinking-structure-probation-sentences

12.

Cohen

T. H.

(2018). Predicting sex offender recidivism: Using the federal post conviction risk assessment instrument to assess the likelihood of recidivism among federal sex offenders. Journal of Empirical Legal Studies, 15(3), 456–481. https://doi.org/10.1111/jels.12184

13.

Cotter

(2022). Length of incarceration and recidivism. Federal Sentencing Reporter, 35(1), 40–42. https://doi.org/10.1525/fsr.2022.35.1.40

14.

Durose

M. R.

Cooper

A. D.

Snyder

H. N.

(2014). Recidivism of prisoners released in 30 states in 2005: Patterns from 2005 to 2010 (Vol. 28, Bureau of Justice Statistics NCJ 244205). U.S. Department of Justice. https://bjs.ojp.gov/content/pub/pdf/rprts05p0510.pdf

15.

Furby

Weinrott

M. R.

Blackshaw

(1989). Sex offender recidivism: A review. Psychological Bulletin, 105(1), 3–30. https://doi.org/10.1037/0033-2909.105.1.3

16.

Hanson

R. K.

(2002). Recidivism and age: Follow-up data from 4,673 sexual offenders. Journal of Interpersonal Violence, 17(10), 1046–1062. https://doi.org/10.1177/08862605-0201710-02

17.

Hanson

R. K.

(2018). Long-term recidivism studies show that desistance is the norm. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 45(9), 1340–1346. https://doi.org/10.1177/0093854818793382

18.

Hanson

R. K.

Bourgon

Helmus

Hodgson

(2009). A meta-analysis of the effectiveness of treatment for sexual offenders: Risk, need, and responsivity. Public Safety Canada. https://www.publicsafety.gc.ca/cnt/rsrcs/pblctns/2009-01-trt/2009-01-trt-eng.pdf?

19.

Hanson

R. K.

Bussière

M. T.

(1998). Predicting relapse: A meta-analysis of sexual offender recidivism studies. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 66(2), 348–362. https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-006X.66.2.348

20.

Hanson

R. K.

Harris

A. J.

Helmus

Thornton

(2014). High-risk sex offenders may not be high-risk forever. Journal of Interpersonal Violence, 29(15), 2792–2813. https://doi.org/10.1177/0886260514526062

21.

Hanson

R. K.

Harris

A. J.

Letourneau

Helmus

L. M.

Thornton

(2018). Reductions in risk based on time offense-free in the community: Once a sexual offender, not always a sexual offender. Psychology, Public Policy, and Law, 24(1), 48–63. https://doi.org/10.1037/law0000135

22.

Hanson

R. K.

Lee

S. C.

Thornton

(2022). Long-term recidivism rates among individuals at high risk to sexually reoffend. Sexual Abuse, 36(1), 3–32. https://doi.org/10.1177/10790632221139166

23.

Hanson

R. K.

Morton-Bourgon

K. E.

(2005). The characteristics of persistent sexual offenders: A meta-analysis of recidivism studies. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 73(6), 1154–1163. https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-006X.73.6.1154

24.

Harris

A. J. R.

Hanson

R. K.

(2004). Sex offender recidivism: A simple question (Vol. 3). Public Safety and Emergency Preparedness Canada. https://www.publicsafety.gc.ca/cnt/rsrcs/pblctns/sx-ffndr-rcdvsm/index-en.aspx?wbdisable=true

25.

Helmus

L. M.

Hanson

R. K.

Thornton

Babchishin

K. M.

Harris

A. J. R.

(2012). Absolute recidivism rates predicted by Static-99R and Static-2002R sex offender risk assessment tools vary across samples: A meta-analysis. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 39(9), 1148–1171. https://doi.org/10.1177/0093854812443648

26.

Helmus

L. M.

Thornton

(2015). Stability and predictive and incremental accuracy of the individual items of Static-99R and Static-2002R in predicting sexual recidivism: A meta-analysis. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 42(9), 917–937. https://doi.org/10.1177/0093854814568891

27.

Holliday

S. B.

Sreenivasan

Walker

S. C.

Jordan

Azizian

Garrick

(2022). Longitudinal patterns of sexual recidivism by age over a 25-year follow-up in California. Sexual Offending: Theory, Research, and Prevention, 17, 1–10. https://doi.org/10.5964/sotrap.3667

28.

Huebner

Berg

(2011). Examining the sources of variation in risk for recidivism. Justice Quarterly, 28(1), 146–173. https://doi.org/10.1080/07418820903365213

29.

Jenkins

(2004). Moral panic. Changing concepts of the child molester in modern America. Yale University Press. https://www-jstor-org-443.web.bisu.edu.cn/stable/j.ctt5hk0vf

30.

Johnson

J. L.

(2006). Sex offenders on federal community supervision: Factors that influence revocation. Federal Probation, 70(1), 18–32.

31.

Jones

P. R.

(1996). Risk prediction in criminal justice. In Harland

A. T.

(Ed.), Choosing correctional options that work: Defining the demand and evaluating the supply (pp. 33–68). Sage.

32.

Kurz

(2023). Applied longitudinal data analysis in brms and the tidyverse. https://bookdown.org/content/4253/

33.

Langan

P. A.

Levin

D. J.

(2002). Recidivism of prisoners released in 1994. Federal Sentencing Reporter, 15(1), 58–65. https://doi.org/10.1525/fsr.2002.15.1.58

34.

Letourneau

E. J.

Levenson

J. S.

Bandyopadhyay

Sinha

Armstrong

K. S.

(2010). Effects of South Carolina’s sex offender registration and notification policy on adult recidivism. Criminal Justice Policy Review, 21(4), 435–458. https://doi.org/10.1177/0887403409353148

35.

Levenson

J. S.

Shields

R. T.

Singleton

D. A.

(2014). Collateral punishments and sentencing policy: Perceptions of residence restrictions for sex offenders and drunk drivers. Criminal Justice Policy Review, 25(2), 135–158. https://doi.org/10.1177/0887403412462385

36.

Lussier

McCuish

Jeglic

E. L.

(2023). Against all odds: The unexplained sexual recidivism drop in the United States and Canada. Crime and Justice, 52, 1125–1196. https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/727028

37.

Maltz

M. D.

(1984). Recidivism. University of Illinois at Chicago.

38.

Mancini

Budd

K. M.

(2016). Is the public convinced that “nothing works?” Predictors of treatment support for sex offenders among Americans. Crime & Delinquency, 62(6), 777–799. https://doi.org/10.1177/0011128715597693

39.

McElreath

(2020). Statistical rethinking: A Bayesian course with examples in R and Stan (2nd ed.). CRC Press.

40.

MCL Act 328, 750.520a-e, 1931 Legislature, 1931 Reg. Sess. (Mich. 1931). https://legislature.mi.gov/Laws/MCL?objectName=mcl-750-520a

41.

Meloy

M. L.

(2005). The sex offender next door: An analysis of recidivism, risk factors, and deterrence of sex offenders on probation. Criminal Justice Policy Review, 16(2), 211–236. https://doi.org/10.1177/0887403404270601

42.

Meloy

M. L.

Curtis

Boatwright

(2013). The sponsors of sex offender bills speak up: Policy makers’ perceptions of sex offenders, sex crimes, and sex offender legislation. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 40(4), 438–452. https://doi.org/10.1177/0093854812455740

43.

Olver

M. E.

Marshall

L. E.

Marshall

W. L.

Nicholaichuk

T. P.

(2020). A long-term outcome assessment of the effects on subsequent reoffense rates of a prison-based CBT/RNR sex offender treatment program with strength-based elements. Sexual Abuse, 32(2), 127–153. https://doi.org/10.1177/1079063218807486

44.

Ostermann

(2011). Parole? Nope, not for me: Voluntarily maxing out of prison. Crime & Delinquency, 57(5), 686–708. https://doi.org/10.1177/0011128710372194

45.

Ostermann

Salerno

L. M.

Hyatt

J. M.

(2015). How different operationalizations of recidivism impact conclusions of effectiveness of parole supervision. The Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency, 52(6), 771–796. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022427815580626

46.

Parent

Guay

J.-P.

Knight

R. A.

(2011). An assessment of long-term risk of recidivism by adult sex offenders: One size doesn’t fit all. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 38(2), 188–209. https://doi.org/10.1177/0093854810388238

47.

Planty

Langton

Krebs

Berzofsky

Smiley-McDonald

(2013). Female victims of sexual violence, 1994-2010 (Bureau of Justice Statistics Special Report NCJ 240655). U.S. Department of Justice.

48.

Prentky

R. A.

Lee

A. F.

Knight

R. A.

Cerce

(1997). Recidivism rates among child molesters and rapists: A methodological analysis. Law and Human Behavior, 21(6), 635–659. https://doi.org/10.1023/a:1024860714738

49.

Rhodes

(2011). Predicting criminal recidivism: A research note. Journal of Experimental Criminology, 7, 57–71. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11292-010-9112-6

50.

Rothwell

Fido

Heym

(2021). Perceptions around adult and child sex offenders and their rehabilitation as a function of education in forensic psychology independent of traditionalism and perpetrator sex. Forensic Science International: Mind and Law, 2(100039), 1–7. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fsiml.2020.100039

51.

Rydberg

(2018). Employment and housing challenges experienced by sex offenders during reentry on parole. Corrections, 3(1), 15–37. https://doi.org/10.1080/23774657.2017.1369373

52.

Sample

Bray

(2003). Are sex offenders dangerous? Journal of Criminology and Public Policy, 3(1), 59–82. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1745-9133.2003.tb00024.x

53.

Sample

Bray

(2006). Are sex offenders different? An examination of rearrest patterns. Criminal Justice Policy Review, 17(1), 83–102. https://doi.org/10.1177/0887403405282916

54.

Schmucker

Lösel

(2015). The effects of sexual offender treatment on recidivism: An international meta-analysis of sound quality evaluations. Journal of Experimental Criminology, 11(4), 597–630. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11292-015-9241-z

55.

Scurich

Gongola

Krauss

D. A.

(2016). The biasing effect of the “sexually violent predator” label on legal decisions. International Journal of Law and Psychiatry, 47, 109–114. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijlp.2016.05.002

56.

Scurich

John

R. S.

(2019). The dark figure of sexual recidivism. Behavioral Sciences and the Law, 37(2), 158–175. https://doi.org/10.1002/bsl.2400

57.

Serin

R. C.

Lowenkamp

C. T.

Lloyd

C. D.

(2020). Managing violent offenders in the community: Reentry and beyond. In Wormith

J. S.

Craig

L. A.

Hogue

T. E.

(Eds.), The Wiley handbook of what works in violence risk management: Theory, research and practice (pp. 543–558). Wiley. https://doi.org/10.1002/9781119315933.ch28

58.

Serin

R. C.

Mailloux

D. L.

Malcolm

P. B.

(2001). Psychopathy, deviant sexual arousal, and recidivism among sexual offenders. Journal of Interpersonal Violence, 16(3), 234–246. https://doi.org/10.1177/088626001016003004

59.

Singer

J. D.

Willett

J. B.

(2003). Applied longitudinal data analysis: Modeling change and event occurrence. Oxford University Press. https://doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780195152968.001.0001

60.

Sivertsson

(2016). Catching up in crime? Long-term processes of recidivism across gender. Journal of Developmental and Life-Course Criminology, 2(3), 371–395. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40865-016-0035-4

61.

Socia

K. M.

Harris

A. J.

(2016). Evaluating public perceptions of the risk presented by registered sex offenders: Evidence of crime control theater? Psychology, Public Policy, and Law, 22(4), 375–385.

62.

Spohn

Holleran

(2001). Prosecuting sexual assault: A comparison of charging decisions in sexual assault cases involving strangers, acquaintances, and intimate partners. Justice Quarterly, 18(3), 652–688. https://doi.org/10.1080/07418820100095051

63.

Tennessee General Assembly. (2021a). House Bill 1047. https://legiscan.com/TN/text/HB1047/id/2409879

64.

Tennessee General Assembly. (2021b). Senate Bill 717. https://legiscan.com/TN/bill/SB0717/2021

65.

Tewksbury

Jennings

W. G.

Zgoba

K. M.

(2012). A longitudinal examination of sex offender recidivism prior to and following the implementation of SORN. Behavioral Sciences & the Law, 30(3), 308–328. https://doi.org/10.1002/bsl.1009

66.

Vehtari

Gelman

Gabry

(2017). Practical Bayesian model evaluation using leave-one-out cross-validation and WAIC. Statistics and Computing, 27(5), 1413–1432. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11222-016-9696-4

67.

Zevitz

R. G.

(2006). Sex offender community notification: Its role in recidivism and offender reintegration. Criminal Justice Studies, 19(2), 193–208. https://doi.org/10.1080/14786010600764567

68.

Zilney

L. J.

Zilney

L. A.

(2009). Perverts and predators: The making of sexual offending laws. Rowman & Littlefield Publishers.

Supplementary Material

Please find the following supplemental material available below.

For Open Access articles published under a Creative Commons License, all supplemental material carries the same license as the article it is associated with.

For non-Open Access articles published, all supplemental material carries a non-exclusive license, and permission requests for re-use of supplemental material or any part of supplemental material shall be sent directly to the copyright owner as specified in the copyright notice associated with the article.

0.00 MB

0.04 MB