Abstract
John Urry’s What is the Future? expands intellectual horizons for meeting the challenges of the future while admitting to the omission of social science from the field of future studies. Urry introduces the concept of the “sociomaterial,” emphasizing how social institutions, the practices of everyday living, and the lives involved are inextricably linked to technological advances that are escalating into the future in unknown ways. A primary focus is placed on post-modern planning, which entails thinking about democratized “social futures” in the face of wicked problems.
The guiding ethos is a humanistic perspective with an understated concern for the retention of our humanity and the quality of life on the planet. Certainly, Urry gives the social dimension a central place in the exploration of the future, with specific reference made to the field of sociology. The mention of classical theoretical concepts depicting social processes, such as rationalization, normlessness, power struggles, and the social psychology of urban living, points to their contemporary relevancy for inclusion in futures research. This book captures the big picture as it affects the places and spaces of our immediate environments. Urry also takes into account the feelings of people and their emotional responses to change, thereby opening largely uncharted vistas of inquiry for investigation of what lies ahead in the future.
Urry addresses issues of the Anthropocene Age, the Third Industrial Revolution, and the Biotechnology Age as we proceed toward what the futurist Ray Kurzweil has termed the “singularity,” a time of unprecedented technological growth whereby life on this planet will be irreversibly changed. One of Urry’s central questions is, How do we proceed in building the future? The answer is presented throughout the book in what can be interpreted as an adventure in the use of a futurist imagination cultivated by interdisciplinary thinking. Urry warns that ignoring social science research and concepts is the pathway to technological reductionism in our way of life. His message is that the future can take on many different forms depending on the chosen perspectives. Overall, the book offers a unique contribution to the knowledge base in future studies.
In Part One (A Brief History of the Future), two chapters present the stories of utopian and dystopian future societies within an eclectic assortment of references, including the classics of western literature, science fiction, television, modern films, and even video games. An extensive and useful summary of texts is given (pp.36–37); humans’ relationship to machines emerges as the prominent theme in these works. These chapters convey the human effort throughout history to grasp the future, ranging from the insights of the sage to the novelist to the futurologist and so many others who ventured to peer into the hourglass of time. It is a refreshing change to understand the future qualitatively rather than in a high-tech format. There are only two graphs in the entire book. It should be noted that throughout the chapters, website documentation assists the reader in locating further information on selected topics.
Part Two (Complex Systems and the Future) focuses on thinking about the future in a systematic, theoretical way through a systems approach, specifically, complex systems thinking that draws on and can be further incorporated into social science and allied fields. Although not overly explained, the basics of this analytical approach are presented as a conceptual scheme by which to piece together the futures puzzle. The roadmap to the future is described as non-linear and unpredictable, with technological innovation taking place in “a world of systems” (p.72).
Research methods for constructing futures, to accompany complex systems thinking, are discussed in Chapter Six. The futuring methods Urry has chosen to detail are highly imaginative and creative, ranging from the artistic to the scientific and incorporating left and right brain thinking. They include learning from the past, studying “failed” futures, developing dystopias, envisaging utopias, developing utopias, extrapolation, and scenario-building/backcasting (p.99).
Scenario-building is singled out as a highly significant strategy for use in future development. It is the theme of Chapters Seven, Eight, and Nine in Part Three (Future Scenarios). Here, Urry develops a series of alternative futures incorporating stories and vignettes. The scenarios convey how critical technological drivers are initiating new systems for manufacturing goods with 3D printing, making the factory system obsolete; innovative urban mobility systems, creating post-car city futures; and, in regard to climate change and energy, new systems of de-growth, ecological modernization, and geo-engineering to harness the crisis at hand. This section holds special interest for urban sociologists, city planners, community organizers, citizens, helping professionals, economists, engineers, ecologists, and anyone concerned with unprecedented changes taking place in urban space, the economy, and the scheme of nature.
What is the Future? is a book for the twenty-first century that offers foundational information for futurist scholars, researchers, policy-makers, and social visionaries who seek an ideal world or at the very least sustainable societies for future generations. It is indeed a daunting and confusing task to make sense of the future of the future without knowing “how to” proceed in terms of theories and methods or having access to bibliographic resources. The book is an excellent source for accessing futures intelligence. For anyone who enters into the process of “disentangling, debating, and delivering social futures” (p.192), the book is essential. By no means is it the only or final word on the subject, but it is written in a different style from most books and expands the lens of knowing about the future. It generates questions for further research, some profound, especially in the areas of beliefs, values, morals, and ethics about how we live and what we really desire in the future.
Urry talks about the need for democracy in our social future, but he does not expand on this point in his work. More research and insight are needed into the traits and political agendas of future-minded leaders. For that matter, what is expected in a future-oriented democracy, and to what extent is there a need for redesigning our present state of democracy? An additional chapter on futures leadership would have been a key topic to address and a major contribution to this book, lending support to the author’s main argument.
The book encourages research in other areas with potential for new knowledge spaces to address future concerns. For example, it creates a major avenue for sociology to enter into futures research with the possibility of futurizing the field. Empirical information is needed about everyday people in the sociology of technological use. Technology remains dominated by professionals and experts, most often behind the screen. In a systems sense, average people need to contribute input and give feedback into what isbecoming an increasingly electronic-technological culture. Otherwise, real people run the risk of becoming passive consumers or, even worse, the “cheerful robots” that C.Wright Mills talked about in The Sociological Imagination. Urry extends an invitation asking that regular people be included in scripting the transformational story of the future, taking their part in scenario-building lest they become lost and uninformed in a future that is a complex moving target beset by wild cards.