Prospects for Genuine Reform in Ukraine's Security Forces

Despite a steady increase in official rhetoric about genuine reform in Ukraine's security services, the president and high command of the MOD and non-MOD security forces still do not see a need for dramatic changes in the country's excessive military organization and are not ready for far-reaching reforms. During 2001, defense spending is expected to increase only modestly in absolute terms, once again covering barely 50 percent of the military's needs. Given the harsh economic realities facing the country, and President Kuchma's profound reluctance to press for deep reductions and far-reaching optimization of all security forces, Ukraine in 2005 will likely still have huge, redundant security forces and a poorly trained and equipped military. The military can expect a survivalnot reformbudget well beyond 2005, and personnel cuts beyond those scheduled for the end of 2005 seem inevitable.