Seizing Control: Latin American Military Motives,Capabilities,and Risks

Institutional level factors involved in Latin American militaries' decision to seize control of civilian governments are analyzed, including military motivations, capabilities, and risks. Motives behind intervention present unresolved issues for social science research. The utility of "motivation" is discussed; an alternative approach, "strength of motivating factors," may function as a better predictor of behavior. Military assessments of capability seem unrelated to strength in numbers or weapons. Rather, consideration of precoup internal support and postcoup ruling ability is critical. Two types of risk include those involved in the intervention process itself, and those by failing to intervene. The latter contribute to the strength of the motivating factors; the former are dependent on perceived capabilities. A closed model of decision making is presented. A coup equation is ultimately reducible to motivational strength and perceived capabilities.