Significant differences in residential energy consumption under different pricing models: New evidence from a district heating and cooling project in subtropical China

This study analyzes residential energy consumption patterns in subtropical China’s hot-summer/cold-winter regions through a case study of 2986 users in Changzhou, Jiangsu, focusing on district heating/cooling (DHC) pricing models. Results show consumption-based fee (CBF) users (70% of the sample) consumed six times less annual energy than capacity-based area pricing (CBA) adopters (30%), driven primarily by usage frequency. System-wide energy demand and capacity requirements under both models were 42% below projections, yet CBA users showed 3.27 times higher winter heating consumption than predicted, revealing behavioral deviations from theoretical loads. Optimizing heat pump-to-chiller ratios based on cooling/heating asymmetry improved equipment utilization by 18%–25%, while a hybrid CBF-CBA framework with phased infrastructure deployment (60%–70% of initial estimates) reduced capital expenditures by 22%–35%. Dynamic pricing and modular design enhanced grid stability and mitigated financial risks, challenging conventional fixed-rate DHC models in subtropical cities. These findings provide actionable strategies for aligning system design with user behavior, balancing thermal comfort demands with decarbonization goals in rapidly urbanizing regions.