Abstract
The Mapuche communities have the highest levels of vulnerability in Chile in terms of income, basic needs, and access to services. Nevertheless, those living in the Andean foothills have historically been exposed to extreme weather. Examining three Andean municipalities of the Araucanía Region from 1990 to 2015, including climate data, interviews with mayors, and adaptation responses of the Chilean state, the article provides evidence of a changing climate and increased vulnerability. The results show trends in scarcity of water, reduction of agricultural production, colonization of plants and population shifts to higher altitudes, increase pressure on Andean ecosystems, and displacement of traditional Mapuche knowledge and practices. Based on these findings, the authors argue it is necessary to change the context in which Mapuche communities develop their livelihoods. This involves strengthening the knowledge of local actors in order to increase their resilience, with adaptation initiatives that emerge from the local context. It also requires enhanced capacity for municipal emergencies and suitable adaptations in road infrastructure, housing, communications, and agricultural planning. At the national level, this also requires recognition of the specific vulnerabilities of indigenous people.
Introduction
The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) defines climate change as a change in climate, directly or indirectly attributed to human activity that changes the composition of the global atmosphere and generates impacts across diverse sectors worldwide (Duarte, 2006; IPCC, 2014). According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO, 2015a), the pressure on agriculture over the next 35 years will be associated with a 30 percent increase in the world population that, along with climate change, will heighten competition for land resources, water, and energy. These links between agriculture and climate change show the complexity of the origin and uncertainty of their impacts in a local context. Agriculture may be responsible for between 44 percent and 57 percent of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions according to Vía Campesina and GRAIN (2014), while the FAO (2015a) estimates that agriculture is directly responsible for closer to 27 percent of GHG emissions. This can be traced to activities for crop, animal, and forest-related production, deforestation, use of fertilizers, herbicides, pesticides, and energy consumption for tillage, irrigation, fertilization, and harvest (HLPE, 2014). Agriculture also receives the direct impacts of climate change. Alterations in temperatures, rainfall patterns, pests and diseases, soil degradation, and loss of biodiversity, among other things, diminish agricultural and livestock productivity and adversely affect food security and the subsistence economies of the poorest and most vulnerable groups (Centro de Cambio Global, 2011; ECLAC, 2012). Among these highly impoverished and vulnerable groups are many indigenous people around the world.
Population growth, lack of land use planning, and the fragility of rural and urban livelihoods have contributed to the increased vulnerability resulting from the impacts of climate change (FAO, 2015b). Consequently, any impact analysis should encompass the economic, political, and social impacts, but it should also engage with the cultural aspects of behavior, perception, and the sense that the people suffering have of the changes taking place (Castro & Chacón, 2012; Montaña, 2013). First, it should consider that the change of biophysical variables of ecosystems is proportional to the extent, intensity, and type of human activity (Berkes, 2007; Echeverri, 2009). Research suggests that climate change is generating bioclimatic stress that exceeds the tolerance levels of many ecosystems, affecting their very presence and geographic distribution, and also the ecosystem services that they provide. In Chile, for example, 1,447 species of flora and 67 of fauna present reductions in their geographical range in the face of expected climate change scenarios, including the threat of extinction (Ministerio del Medio Ambiente, 2014b). Second, these variables, besides being related to each other, are dynamic and location-specific to each ecosystem and can be produced in different ways and by different stimuli (Schultz et al., 2015). This point brings to the fore one of the central points of discussion on climate change, namely the difficulty of quantifying impacts. This is because there are multiple factors that can be enhanced, reduced, or masked creating uncertainty about the degree and scope(s) of its impact(s). These impact-related factors include, among others, social and economic changes and exposures, institutional and technical components, and current vulnerability (Kakota, Nyariki, Mkwanbisi, & Kogi-Makau, 2011; Blanco & Fuenzalida, 2013; Montaña, 2013).
In the Americas and the Caribbean, the impacts have been heterogeneous and skewed between and within countries (Martello, 2008; Ford, 2012; Sánchez, 2015), especially in the Andean regions (Postigo, Blanco, & Chacón, 2013). The Andean ecosystems cover 23 percent of the planet’s surface and are home to 23 percent of the world’s forests. They provide environmental services, such as supply and protection of 60–80 percent of water resources for domestic, agricultural, and industrial use; regulation of water flows; renewable energy; and preservation of biodiversity (Burgeon, Hofer, Van Lierop, & Wabbes, 2015; Lo & Chow, 2015). They are also mostly inhabited by indigenous people, whose livelihoods depend on natural capital, yet they have insecure access to it (Banco Mundial, 2008; FAO, 2011). Climate change will be one of the perpetuating causes of such insecurity and an additional dimension of their overall profile of vulnerability. Research also suggests that climate change will bring about unfavorable implications for human health in the form of respiratory conditions, cancer, and chronic degenerative diseases (Feo et al., 2009). This impact could be direct or indirect, depending on the degree of exposure, and most likely with particular characteristics in terms of indigenous populations.
The endogenous potential of Andean livelihoods is an alternative to weathering the uncertainties created by climate change. This is supported by the capacity of adaptation of their agro-ecological systems, in other words, the ability of local stakeholders to learn how to deal with certain events (Brown, 2011; Reid, 2015). Research conducted by the FAO (2010) concluded that those living in areas frequently exposed to drought had a greater diversity of adaptive responses than people living in areas without exposure. The central point of this argument is that families can adapt to and reduce the effects of climate impacts; however, when it comes to unexpected, prolonged, or extreme/intense events, the damages often exceed their adaptive capabilities. One must also consider that in cases of low productivity and lack of expertise and investment capital, a predatory use of natural capital emerges, accentuating the problems of environmental and land degradation and falling agricultural and livestock productivity while increasing vulnerability (Castro & Chacón, 2012; McDowell & Hess, 2012; Andersson, Lawrence, Zavaleta, & Guariguata, 2016;). For these reasons, the scientific community is interested in local adaptation to the impacts of climate change, as this would allow for the early generation of strategies or action plans, particularly in areas directly exposed or most vulnerable to climate impacts (Smit & Wandel, 2006; Davis, 2010; Eriksen et al., 2011). The organization of this social capital plays a key role in this process, as it allows for local actors to renegotiate resources and rights (Bebbington, 1999; Schroeder, 2010).
The 2013–2014 Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) provides a more categorical summary of the current situation of climate change, its impacts, and consequences (IPCC, 2013; IPCC, 2014). While the 2013 Working Group 1 report on climate science points to the more probable trends according to the new scenarios, it is in the Working Groups II and III on adaptation and mitigation respectively that the challenges are posed in terms of how societies and their respective authorities will react. To date, the emphasis on climate change has been top–down. Initially, the protagonists were the climate change scientists dating back to meetings in the 1980s, prior to establishing the bases for the international response in the UNFCCC approved in principle in 1992 and signed off in 1994. From this point on, the whole climate change institutional architecture has been international in scope: from the international network of climate change scientists operating through the auspices of the IPCC to the international Conference of Parties (COP) meetings, which define strategy and national commitments. However, the impacts of climate change—to date and into the future—are local and highly contextualized. While global modeling and meta-analysis point to broad trends and considerable uncertainties (hence the vocabulary used in the IPCC reports, such as, “high agreement,” “robust evidence,” “very low confidence,” “exceptionally unlikely”), experiences of climate change impacts are extensive and persistent.
It is for this reason that one has to look at the local level to uncover impacts and capacities for adaptation. In terms of urban adaptation, there is an increasing awareness and response capacity, through the C40 (Cities Climate Leadership Group), ICLEI (International Council for Local Governments for Sustainability), Assessment Report on Climate Change and Cities (ARC3), etc. and also in different sectoral strategies associated with agriculture, health, and transport, for instance. However, when specific social groups are highlighted, there appears to be a comparative lack of attention to this level of detail (as opposed to the detail of climate science per se). It is in this attention to socio-ecological detail, of context and specific social groups, that the vulnerability and resilience to climate change become more evident (Adger, Arnell, & Tompkins, 2005; Eakin et al., 2012; Sietz, 2014). It is also at this level of attention that the specificities of indigenous people’s vulnerability to climate change become evident. In the case of climate change policy in Chile, recent evidence reveal that there is a void in terms of highlighting the specific vulnerabilities and needs of indigenous people, in the north and south of the country. As a result, their vulnerability has risen rather than decreased over the past decade, since their conditions have not been incorporated into relevant government strategies and programs. Given their existing condition of vulnerability in terms of income, basic needs, and access to services, climate change provides yet another burden for their livelihoods and as such requires specific responses.
This article highlights the specific case of three municipalities in the Andean foothills of Chile—Lonquimay, Melipeuco, and Curarrehue. These municipalities lie on the easternmost points of the Araucanía Region, acting as bridging points to other Mapuche communities on the Argentinian side of the Andes in the province of Neuquén. The Araucanía Region has the highest concentration of indigenous people of Chile, and these concentrations are highest in the upland municipalities and along the coast. It is these same municipalities that register some of the highest levels of human development deficits among the country’s 346 municipalities. It is precisely the way in which climate change exacerbates existing vulnerabilities that is the central concern of this article. Recent climatic events and responses have revealed a lack of adaptative capacity that enhances existing vulnerabilities and exposes the failure of national climate change planning to protect the needs of the most vulnerable groups across the country.
Mapuche Livelihoods in the Andean Foothills of the Araucanía Region
By the end of the twenty-first century, Chile is predicted to experience warming and reduced precipitation over most of the country (Ministerio del Medio Ambiente, 2014a). This warming will be more pronounced in the Andes, with increases in the daily minimum and maximum temperatures at night, and will lead to reduction in rainfall (Adapt-Chile, 2014). The result of the lack of rainfall in the northern and central area so far has been soil salinization and desertification, which has decreased agricultural productivity (Parker Letelier, & Muñoz, 2013). From the social point of view, the “Pehuenche” Mapuche group is representative of the Andean foothills. In Chile, as in the rest of the American continent, many of the geographic regions that are most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change are historically territories of indigenous people. These people have been excluded from the political and economic decisions of the conquest colonization period onwards (Tsosie, 2007; Westra, 2008; Cameron, 2012). Several factors perpetuate the conditions of extreme poverty, low income, and lack of formal employment opportunities in the Mapuche territory in the Andes. These include the successive division of the territory; limited availability of productive land in the valleys; land that has a steep slope; lack of access to health and education; adverse weather conditions; and limited levels of infrastructure and investment (Parraguez & Barton, 2013). Given these factors, different types and degrees of vulnerability have emerged.
The municipalities of Lonquimay, Melipeuco, and Curarrehue are good examples of this complex situation of vulnerability. They are located on the eastern fringe of the Araucanía Region, bordering Argentina, and encompass approximately 19 percent of the regional land area (see Figure 1). They share a same topography along the Andean piedmont—some parts of the municipalities are over 1,000 m and have an abundant snow mass (cryonival conditions), especially in the municipality of Lonquimay. Active volcanoes also exist across this landscape. The climate is generally temperate with Mediterranean conditions, apart from the cold tundra characteristics of the highest altitudes. Rainfall varies annually between 2,000 mm and 3,000 mm in winter, and two months are entirely dry. The average temperature exceeds 10°C only during four months of the year. Hygrophyte woods dominate the valleys, with native species that are protected by national protected areas legislation. In the high tundra, by contrast, the vegetation is semi-desert, for instance, in Lonquimay. Given these geographical conditions, the municipalities have low population levels that, according to the 2002 census (the most recent, given the cancellation of the 2012 census), concentrate only 2.6 percent of the region₹s population (10,800, 5,600, and 6,700 for Lonquimay, Melipeuco, and Curarrehue respectively). It is no coincidence that these municipalities also have high concentrations of indigenous people in their populations, due to historical association and difficulties in generating larger scale commercial activities (see Table 1). This population is predominantly rural: 66.4 percent in Lonquimay; 62 percent in Melipeuco, and 72.5 percent in Curarrehue, with the remaining urban populations based in the three municipal centers and a dozen other hamlets that lie along the valley floors. The same geographical conditions also lead to these communities being relatively isolated from the rest of the region, especially during extreme weather events.
Source: Authors, based on the cartography of the Military Geographical Institute (2014).
Socioeconomic and Identity Indicators in Comparative Context
Source: Ministerio de Desarrollo Social, 2011.
Since the so-called “Pacification of the Araucanía” (1861–1883), during which the Chilean government imposed its will on the Mapuche communities to the south of the Biobío River, the areas with high indigenous populations have fared badly in comparative terms, as the CASEN (National Socio-economic Categorisation Survey) data reveals. This is in spite of programs that have been designed specifically for indigenous development, most recently the Programa Orígenes and the Plan Araucanía. Within these municipalities, development strategies driven by the Chilean state have led to more homogenous agro-production systems, limiting adaptation characteristics and diversity. Consequently, the productive base was defined in the regional development strategy (EDR) as “highly complex” (see Table 2). It is possible to argue that it is precisely the fact that local development has been influenced by “Western” development priorities and created situations of dependency that has increased vulnerability by reducing local decision-making options (Parraguez & Barton, 2014). The practices, capabilities, tools, innovations, resources, and knowledge on biological diversity and climatic factors of local people have been and are being curtailed. The central point here is that state interventions have accelerated the loss of biodiversity, traditional knowledge, and practices and effectively reduced the adaptive capacity of local actors to extreme climate conditions. In practice, there are imposed trends and voluntary ones, which combine—directly and indirectly—in strengthening the impacts of climate change at the local level.
Productive Capacity in the Municipalities of Araucanía
Source: Gobierno Regional, 2009.
The methods included unstructured interviews, field observations, analysis of national action plan for adaptation to climate change of Chilean government, and statistical data analysis of census (2011), productive capacity (2010–2022), and climatic extreme events (1993–2014). The mayors interviewed were (a) Guido Barría Oyarzun, municipality of Lonquimay, personal communication July 29, 2014; (b) Juan Espinoza Pérez, municipality of Melipeuco, personal communication July 25, 2014; and (c) Abel Painefilo Barriga, municipality of Curarrehue, personal communication September 1, 2014. The interviews with the mayors included questions relating to changes in local climate, local preparedness, perceptions of other actors and their roles, the functioning of public agencies, and responsibilities for future actions.
The National Action Plan for Adaptation to Climate Change
Chilean climate change strategy dates from a 2006 initiative coordinated by the foreign ministry. As with similar experiences in other countries, the emphasis was on climate science, UNFCCC commitments (such as an inventory in preparation for the First National Communication), and a strong emphasis was on mitigation. Although adaptation would appear within the 2008–2012 National Climate Change Action Plan, mitigation continues to dominate the discussion and the strategy, in spite of the fact that GHG emissions have risen rather than fallen due to new thermoelectric capacity coming online and rising electricity demands from these sources, particularly from the mining sector. The national action plan was organized according to sectors rather than specific territories (apart from coastal areas) or social groups. Of particular interest to the government of the day was the effect that climate change would have on the productive sectors such as mining, forestry, and agri-business, and this is evident in the structure and content of the document. There is no specific reference to social groups, vulnerable social groups in particular, and indigenous communities are a notable void. The focus is on objects rather than subjects. “Citizens” are a generic group that is referred to, without any consideration of the tremendous differences that exist in the country between the 90 percent of urban Chileans living in large metropolis such as Santiago de Chile or Gran Concepción or smaller settlements in the desert or the Patagonian regions, or the 10 percent rural population living often in environments with water scarcity, frequent extreme events, and limited local resources. One of the few implicit references to indigenous livelihoods in rural areas (bearing in mind that the majority of indigenous people in Chile live in towns and cities) is that of support for peasant agriculture (Priority 4.1.2.3, p. 44) (Ministerio del Medio Ambiente, 2014b). However, this could be regarded as incidental since the CONADI (Indigenous Development National Commission), founded in 1993 in the light of the indigenous law of the same year, was not identified as an institutional actor in the national plan.
The Second National Communication of 2011 includes one reference only to indigenous people (Ministerio del Medio Ambiente, 2011, p. 257), in terms of the access that formal indigenous groups have to a special fund for supporting local initiatives (Environmental Protection Fund). However, this fund has existed since 2007, and the fact that climate change is a theme that may be included in an application is not a specific measure as such. In a 290-page document, this void speaks volumes. The latest document that reveals the same weakness is the national adaptation plan (draft version for consultation 2013). Given the Ministry of Environment remit to organize the plan according to sectors, the focus on social groups and specific vulnerabilities is minimized, and there is little sense of the specific weaknesses of socio-ecological systems and their livelihoods of their communities, in particular spatial contexts. There is a commitment to prioritize adaptation measures that consider the most vulnerable people, localities, and infrastructures (Ministerio del Medio Ambiente, 2014b), but this emphasis is almost lost within the sectoral plans that are the driving force of the adaptation response in: forestry and agriculture; tourism; fisheries and aquaculture; health; cities; energy; water resources; biodiversity; and infrastructure. If, within each sectoral plan, there is the ambition to target the most vulnerable communities, then this orientation principle will be useful, making indigenous community challenges transversal to the entire plan. However, this is not made explicit in the document, and CONADI is not identified as an institutional actor in the execution phase (although the Ministry of Interior that houses it is mentioned).
In November 2014, the national adaptation plan was finally approved, following a period of public consultation in 2013–2014. However, a close examination of this document reveals that it is also weak on indigenous vulnerability to climate change, with only one reference to the need to link to the indigenous development areas (ADIs) codes (however, without noting how this might be done and without including the CONADI—indigenous authority—in the operational aspects of the plan). This is in spite of the fact that the first principle of the plan is precisely “The prioritisation of adaptation measures that consider most vulnerable people, localities and infrastructure,” while the fourth principle declares that “The promotion of citizen participation and information dissemination should take place fairly, without distinguishing between sex, race or social conditions and considering ethic identity” (Ministerio del Medio Ambiente, 2014b). The change should be in the last sentence, to this second principle should perhaps have promoted positive discrimination, in order to fulfil the first principle of the plan.
The indigenous void in climate change policy since 2006 is due to the national-level orientation of the initiatives and also the structure of organizing responses according to sectors. The fact that the first sectorial committee on climate change was coordinated by the agriculture ministry indicates the underlying priorities. The principal goal has been to determine and manage the potential negative impacts for the export sectors, whether in terms of ensuring water supply through new investments in reservoirs or in identifying new species varieties according to different water basins. The focus on population vulnerabilities, whether in urban or rural settings, has been largely absent, due in part to the difficulties in establishing effective vulnerability criteria. Nevertheless, the IPCC 2012 special report on extreme events, disasters, and climate change planning, by linking different agenda, from development to risk management and climate adaptation, generates the understanding that climate change should be mainstreamed into development planning rather than being identified and managed as a supplementary component with discrete variables and criteria (IPCC, 2012). This new type of logic in climate change strategy should move indigenous livelihoods to the fore. Indeed, the document refers to indigenous specificities, whether in terms of knowledge, traditional coping strategies for extreme events, or the need for local supplies for disaster preparedness.
Climatic Vulnerability of Andean Mapuche Livelihoods in the Araucanía Region
The geological and geographical characteristics of the Andean foothills act as strong factors of potential vulnerability due to extreme weather events in the municipalities of Lonquimay, Melipeuco, and Curarrehue. This is in spite of the fact that the whole Andean chain can—at the same time—be regarded as a potentially beneficial “water tower” for the lower lying areas (Sánchez, Marchant, & Borsdorf, 2012). Additionally, the geographical features of the valleys, plateaus, high mountains, and rivers make the communities in this area highly vulnerable to climate impacts. Another key of vulnerability are the Lonquimay, Llaima, and Villarrica volcanoes, part of the most active volcanic complex in southern Chile. Their continual activity modifies the Andean ecosystems in this area and places human settlements and productive activities in a vulnerable state. Both factors play a key role in the magnitude of the impact of climatic elements—temperature, rainfall, and snowfall events—on these Andean ecosystems and respective livelihoods (see Table 3).
According to the mayors, the link between temperature and rainfall has strong impacts on the productive activities of local livelihoods in the summer period, while in the winter months the risks are principally isolation and loss of animals. A particularly important feature of climate change in the area is the rising zero isotherm, which coincides with predictive models of climate change (Bustos, 2011; Ministerio del Medio Ambiente y GTZ Chile, 2013). Consequently, as Mayor Barría notes, during the last decade, snow fell at increasing elevations each year in Lonquimay, leading to rainfall rather than snow at lower elevations. This leads to the need for different strategies since the risks from each are quite distinctive.
The mayors agree that increased variation in climate began in the early 1990s; hence, perceptions of climate change are not new among local decision-makers. Before 1990, it was normal to experience heavy snowfall during the months of June, July, and August (winter), and this was followed by a thawing period during October–November. However, since 1990, the snowfall has been below average, and extreme winter storm events have occurred more frequently, colloquially called “white earthquakes.” The first major event occurred in August 1995 and the second in August–September 2008. The excessive accumulation of snow at the end of, or out of, season has had negative consequences for socioeconomic, productive, and connectivity aspects of Andean Mapuche livelihoods.
The year 2014 was exceptional regarding the climate impacts. Mayor Barría said that in the months of January, February, and March (summer), there was a particular lack of rain, hence drought conditions, accompanied by low temperatures and frost in Lonquimay. In a normal year, three fodder crops are harvested, but the combination of drought and frost disrupted the first yield, leading to only 40 percent of the normal harvest at the end of the season. According to Gonzalez and Velasco (2008), in Chile there is a direct relationship between climatic variables and economic variables in agricultural productive systems. In these municipalities, the impacts not only affected the agricultural production of winter fodder but also food production for human consumption, creating uncertainty and food insecurity. This connection to food security has been highlighted in the Andean context, particularly in Peru and Bolivia, for example, as well as for specific indigenous people, such as the Inuit (Ford & Beaumier, 2011; Field & Michalak, 2015). Additional impacts result from an early arrival of snowfall in late May and early June, accumulating up to three meters of snow in the higher yet still inhabited areas. Furthermore, in July and August when snow is expected, it rains due to the changing zero isotherm. The result of the low production of fodder and the early arrival of snowfall has been that the Mapuche population is unable to prepare adequately for survival during the winter period, perpetuating a process of dependence upon emergency resources from the Chilean state. The main relevance of this point lies in the demonstration that the variability of a climatic impact and the livelihood response, that is, response to frost, indicates that vulnerability was maintained or increased as a consequence.
Principal Extreme Events Affecting the Selected Municipalities, 1993–2014
Source: Based on Henríquez (2014) and Government of Chile (2014).
The combination of impacts of changing climate has had several consequences on the state of Andean Mapuche livelihoods and associated production and development options. It is precisely this connection that lies at the heart of the climate change–risk–development connections established in the IPCC (2012) special report on risks and adaptation. This relationship has led to certain trends in the Andean region over the past two decades. The rise of the zero isotherm not only leads to less accumulation of snow and increased runoff in the winter period but also reduces water availability during the summer period, at the height of water demand. Mayor Espinoza and Mayor Painefilo noted that, over the last decade, various sectors of the municipalities of Melipeuco and Curarrehue received water twice a week from water trucks. This trend has a direct impact on the municipal budget, as it is an item that was not considered in previous decades, limiting the allocation of resources to other areas, for example, education, primary healthcare, and job creation.
The Centre for Scientific Studies notes that the lack of water availability is associated with the lack of infiltration into groundwater reserves, given that rainfall is intense rather than prolonged. Also, due to the warming in higher zones of the mountain range which leads to precipitation as rain rather than snow, affecting also the coverage of glaciers (La Tercera, 2015), the national adaptation plan (2014) points to the same phenomena. Research has shown that availability of and access to water for local populations will be factors of widespread vulnerability over coming decades, almost regardless of location (Seo and Mendelsohn, 2008; Van Vuuren et al., 2012; Young et al., 2010; Riveros, 2015). The lack of water and land availability will have strong impacts on the agricultural, fisheries, and forestry sectors in Chile (CONAF, 2012). This has already led to clear impacts, for example, in agricultural production in the Chilean central regions. The reduction in rainfall in the southern regions during spring and summer, alongside higher temperatures, suggests that the conditions will be more appropriate for fruit production and more forestry as compared to conventional agricultural products (Fundación para la Innovación Agraria, 2010; Oficina de Estudios y Políticas Agrarias, 2013). This new scenario associated with climate change will increase pressure on the available land, with corporative forestry systems contrasting markedly with traditional Mapuche and small-scale farmer productive systems in terms of land use practices.
Another trend is the emergence of new processes of colonization. The temperature increases and precipitation at higher altitudes have led plants to processes of colonization of land at higher elevations in Lonquimay. To compensate for these conditions, revealing plant adaptation, research results show that plants that grow at higher altitudes have a larger diameter, for example (Sierra-Almeida & Cavieres, 2010). The local people have begun also to build houses at higher elevations, modifying their livelihood activities. The occupation of land at higher elevations planted with alfalfa has allowed them to move from raising sheep to raising cattle. The consequences are demand for basic services (electricity, water, and roads), more climate vulnerability, and increased pressure on the Andean ecosystems at these elevations. The occupation of marginalized land, however, is a phenomenon that has spread to the indigenous populations of Peru, Bolivia, and Ecuador and is not specific to Chile (Gray, Bisbarrow, Bremner, & Lu, 2008; Killeen et al., 2008; Vía Campesina & GRAIN, 2014). This situation has increased their vulnerability and degraded highly fragile ecosystems.
The flooding of the valleys during the winter months, due to the increase in precipitation, is the third observed trend. Mayor Espinoza and Mayor Painefilo mentioned that flooding of the valleys disrupts traffic on the international roads and secondary roads that connect the upland municipalities. This affects transit vehicles, telecommunications, and electricity. The erosion of riverbanks, streams, and riverbeds as a consequence of landslides, and the flooding of agro-productive land and housing, negatively affects the Mapuche livelihoods due to the uncertainties of predicting events and a generally low adaptive capacity given their socioeconomic conditions. The results show, on one hand, that this has increased the vulnerability of the Mapuche population in these areas, and on the other, that they are increasingly dependent on state transfers and subsidies.
Discussion
According to the mayors, climate change is responsible for the variations in climate. Since climate change involves not only projections based on anthropogenic influences but also changes in natural variability, their perceptions would appear to be validated by the IPCC (Aldunce et al., 2008; IPCC, 2014). The interviewees agree that the activities of the Mapuche population and other settlers in these communities have little or no influence on climate change, but that they are highly vulnerable to its impacts. Similar vulnerability has also shown indigenous livelihoods in northern Canada, the Arctic, and the Pacific Islands (Furgal & Seguin, 2006; Krupnik & Ray, 2007; Martello, 2008). Hence, it is a widespread condition of indigenous people that they have little connection with the drivers of climate change but are highly subject to the threats that are generated. Many of these threats are uncertain and have strong seasonal dimensions that require flexibility in planning responses (Turner & Clifton, 2009; Aswani & Lauer, 2014). These uncertainties are partly responsible for the displacement of the practices and indigenous knowledge to make room for scientific knowledge and technological innovations, which may favor younger farmers, for example, due to their different educational levels (FAO, 2015c; Roco, Engler, Bravo-Ureta, & Jara-Rojas, 2015). The indigenous practices for predicting weather and its impacts have been relegated given their lack of accuracy and reliability in the face of significant changes, for example, an abundant harvest of Araucaria pine nuts is associated with a year of abundant snow. Nevertheless, for Mayor Barría, the report of the Meteorological Office of Chile on the occurrence of the El Niño indicated the need to prepare for a complicated winter. The “new-normal” is a situation, therefore, of uncertainty based on both traditional and modern practices.
The research, however, suggests that preparatory work should make use of indigenous potential and livelihoods (Berkes & Folke, 1998; Agüero, 2015; Neven, 2015), yet these practices and indigenous knowledge are rarely considered in the development of public policies (Purdon, 2015; Vía Campesina & GRAIN, 2015). The practices, skills, tools, innovations, resources, and knowledge of biodiversity and climatic conditions of local actors have been and are being increasingly relegated (FAO, 2015a; GRAIN, 2015). This situation sits alongside other important shifts in local livelihoods, such as the move from traditional Mapuche dietary patterns to more modern ones, which involve the loss of species and crop varieties, planting schedules, use of different ecological zones, irrigation systems, etc., (Schnettler et al., 2012; Montaña, 2013). The focus of this argument is that the displacement of indigenous practices and knowledge based on the capacities of Andean livelihoods to adapt to climate change is a shared responsibility between the Chilean state and local actors. The result is that these capacities are not being fully utilized.
Currently, public institutions take actions based on the outcomes of a climate event and also generalized past trends and experiences. These actions are proportionate to the degree and magnitude of impact, and the context of action tends to be focused on the municipality (as the first line of action). For the municipality of Lonquimay, this has led to the purchase of four-wheel drive vehicles (for snow, in particular), specialized ambulances (caterpillar tracks), snowmobiles, radio-communication programs, educational programs for skiing (for students in rural schools), subsidies for housing with steeper roofs and insulated walls, alfalfa planting programs (sprinkler irrigation), and the construction of warehouses (storage areas). In summary, road, housing, and communications networks have been strengthened, and fodder production and storage infrastructure have been enhanced. In Mellipeuco over the past two decades, the actions have included similar measures: enabling two shelters, evacuation routes, roads improvement, subsidies for insulated housing, an alfalfa planting program, and the construction of warehouses. The actions of the municipality of Curarrehue are similar but also include the installation of levees and interventions in the channel of the river Trancura.
These municipalities also have management plans to confront climate events. The municipality of Melipeuco has a contingency plan and an operation emergency committee (COE), chaired by the mayor and comprised of one representative appointed by the mayor, heads and directors of municipal departments, the superintendent of firefighters, Chilean police, and local leaders. This was created in January 2013 and is planned to be operational within the first hour of the event to assess the situation and coordinate actions. This municipality has a limited budget to tend to events of lesser or limited magnitude. The municipalities of Curarrehue and Lonquimay have also constituted emergency committees. They are responsible for coordinating the actions of other public institutions, and they participate in the creation of action plans but do not directly decide on actions, since they have few autonomous resources that they can mobilize. A particularly relevant point to note is that there is no coordination among these three municipalities despite their common exposure and sensitivities. Instead of collaborating among themselves, they are each dependent on regional support from centralized institutions (the second line of action).
In the face of a climatic event, municipalities must issue a report to the regional branch of the National Emergency Office of the Ministry of the Interior (ONEMI Araucanía). Emergency measures can take the form of immediate assistance (food parcels for people and concentrates or bales of foodstuffs for animals, distributed by helicopter in remote areas when weather conditions permit) and non-immediate activities (clearing roads). The ONEMI operates different mechanisms, depending on the magnitude of the event and if regional or national funds need to be mobilized, for exampler, heavy machinery. Meanwhile, the Ministry of Agriculture has the authority to declare an “agricultural emergency.” This allows the ministry to reallocate economic resources to purchase food concentrates, agricultural inputs, and fodder to feed cattle and sheep via the Agricultural Development Institute (INDAP).
During the severe climate event of June 2014, an agricultural emergency was decreed in 14 municipalities in the Araucanía Region, including the communities of Lonquimay, Melipeuco, and Curarrehue (Gobierno de Chile, 2014). The municipality of Melipeuco received 3,240 bags of concentrates (50 kg each), distributed by local government officers to those affected through the Local Development Unit (UDEL) in coordination with the Local Development Program (PRODESAL), Development Indigenous Territorial Development Program (PDTI), and the Social Development Department. Against this severe winter event, in the following summer (March 2015), the Ministry of Agriculture declared agricultural emergencies in 194 municipalities across the country, due to the impacts of severe drought (the “mega-drought” as it has been termed in CR2, 2015). A disaster zone was also decreed in the municipalities of Melipeuco and Lonquimay as a result of the fires that affected national protected areas. The large investments of economic resources in improving roads, housing, health, education, telecommunications, and agro-productive systems were insufficient due to the uncertainties of climate change impacts. According to Mayor Barría, the alternative is to invest in good practices and to improve the use of resources technologically, for example, with irrigation systems, alternative energies, and research on local production systems. However, there is also a need for local actors to be involved in these decisions and through an awareness of these uncertainties, employing indigenous knowledge and practices where appropriate, since there is a prevailing “culture of prevention” which explains the survival of indigenous production systems in different contexts. This concept of a culture of prevention can be seen, for example, in natural resource management (Herrmann, 2005).
To move in this direction, and to begin to ground the national adaptation plan in indigenous community contexts, there needs to be a reassessment of indigenous knowledges and technologies. This should be followed by the involvement of local actors in order to develop mitigation and adaptation strategies that are appropriate to indigenous livelihoods (Altieri & Nicholls, 2008; Dimitrov, 2010). It is only through these steps that the trend over the past quarter century of increased emergency funding for climate impacts can be curtailed. Finance should be directed to the strengthening of the knowledge of local actors in order to increase their resilience with mitigation and adaptation measures that emerge from and respond to a specific local context. In other words, it involves a reflection on the fact that climate change is a social process that includes different understandings, diverse and integrated vulnerabilities, uncertain impacts, and multiple forms for organizing associative responses (Hadden, 2014).
Another urgent step is for these emergency strategies to be built into longer term planning instruments. The EDR, the municipal development plan (PLADECO), and the municipal spatial plan (PRC) are the principal planning instruments that should define strategic planning objectives, sectoral initiatives, and land use changes. However, these instruments do not currently include many of the conditions and considerations mentioned above. It is precisely in these planning instruments that risks can be mapped and land uses changed in order to mitigate these risks to some extent. However, these indicative and normative instruments are not used to their maximum potential in order to condition development trajectories, since strategic planning is too often superseded by shorter term sectoral investments from centralized funding sources. This is the case for almost all municipalities in Chile.
Conclusions
Climate change is often represented as a new risk that has emerged since the early meetings of the IPCC and their series of assessment reports. In many cases, it is presented as an umbrella under which most of the current development problems can be understood. However, it is neither a new risk nor a separate phenomenon that can be understood apart from its context. In this regard, the IPCC (2012) special report on climate risk is instructive. It makes the case for linking the climate change agenda with the risk management agenda and wider development issues. It is precisely here, at the interstices of these three fields, that one can find indigenous climate risk.
There is evidence that the impacts of climate change—observed and projected—are changing in terms of intensity, duration, and timing (IPCC, 2013). This is evident in the localities noted here. The phenomenon of the “white earthquake,” that defines the intensity of the blizzards, for instance, is evidence of the perceptions that exist in this regard and the experience itself. However, to what extent is it possible to increase the resilience of these vulnerable communities?
Rather than emerging as a new phenomenon, climate risk—defined as the relationship between impacts and vulnerability (exposition, sensitivity, adaptive capacity)—has always been a factor in the livelihoods of Mapuche communities in the Andean foothills. What has changed is the nature of these events, the degree of dependency of the communities on external resources, and their expectations with regards to infrastructure, communications, and agricultural and livestock support. Being cut off for weeks or months from other communities was part of the annual cycle until recent decades; however, there is now an expectation that communications and access are permanently maintained.
Increasing resilience to climate change by reducing vulnerability will require a change in the context in which Mapuche communities develop their livelihoods. Climate risk currently enhances existing levels of vulnerability. To increase resilience will require greater autonomy for local communities and also improved coordination by local government. If future intense climate events generate ever-increasing demands for resources, whether forage or road repairs, then this should be regarded as evidence of a lack of local resilience to climate change. It is only by decoupling external resource dependency from climate events that increased resilience, thus adaptive capacity, should become evident. In this sense, climate risk is similar to longer standing problems of socioeconomic development and dependent relations between communities and the Chilean state. Consequently, the nexus of climate change–risk management development is made explicit, since the roots of the challenges are overlapping and can be reduced to the lack of local capacity-building and local resource generation. These limitations are particularly evident in indigenous communities.
Climate change and the adaptation of municipal authorities to these risks in recent years reveal that initiatives have emerged that may well increase resilience among Mapuche communities in these three municipalities in the medium term. However, the mayors observe that emergency responses cannot be equated with the longer term processes of adaptation that are social and geographical in origin, rather than purely economic and political. It is precisely in these longer term processes that adaptive capacity can be built in, and that may in turn increase resilience. However, in the meantime, it would appear that climate risk has increased or compounded vulnerability in these communities rather than the reverse over the past two decades.
While the national climate change adaptation plan approved at the end of 2014 provides a road map for future programs and investments, it focuses principally on key sectors, for example, biodiversity, fisheries, and forestry, as opposed to specific territories and particular social groups. Municipalities in particular are not a focal point. While the plan instigates the creation of regional climate change committees, it is not clear how these will operate and how they will engage with other agencies and the local governments. In terms of future policy, the participation and training of local government officers, and local government-elected authorities (mayors and counsellors), will be central to developing local adaptation plans and building these into municipal operations in order to increase resilience and adaptive capacity. In contexts of municipalities with high concentrations of vulnerable rural Mapuche communities, this need for adaptation is both more complex and more urgent.