The Parallel Declines of Intergenerational Economic Mobility and Marriage: Are They Related?

Abstract

Intergenerational mobility declined in the second half of the 20th century—simultaneously with the decline in marriage rates and the rise of single parenthood. This study investigated whether county-level intergenerational mobility rates predict family formation patterns. We utilized a county-level measure of intergenerational mobility constructed by Chetty and Hendren for a cohort of young adults born between 1980 and 1986 and raised in lower-income families, merged with county-level rates of marriage and single parenthood from the 2015–2019 American Community Survey 5-year estimates. Regression models showed that higher intergenerational mobility is associated with subsequent higher marriage rates while lower intergenerational mobility is associated with subsequent higher rates of single parenthood. These results provide descriptive evidence that the decline in intergenerational mobility seen during the second half of the 20th century may be one of the drivers of the decline in marriage and the rise of single parenthood seen during the same era.

Keywords

family structure intergenerational economic mobility low-income families marriage single parenthood

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