African Migration at a Crossroads: The Social and Theoretical Implications of Emerging International Migration Trends

Early Theoretical Approaches to the Study of African Migration

Given the challenges associated with conducting research on African migration in previous decades (Adepoju 1995), it is easy to lose sight of several notable developments on the continent around the 1960s and 1970s that helped to advance the theoretical foundations of these movements. Most of these were assessments of the relevance of classical migration theories to African countries and focused on internal rather than international migration. For example, Salau (1976) conducted an ambitious study that assessed whether classical migration theories such as Ravenstein's laws, Lee's migration theory, and gravity models could be applied to African societies. He concluded that these theories of migration “could be successfully utilized in the African context” (Salau 1976, 45). In so doing, he helped to lay the early foundations of comparative research on migration in Africa and other world regions.

Other studies, such as Byerlee (1974) and Todaro (1969, 1980), went a step further by using African societies to develop new insights into the general determinants of migration. Of this group, Todaro's (1969) study was the most influential given its role in the development of new theoretical insights into the economic determinants of migration. ¹ The study used the less developed contexts found in African societies to develop a model of the rational choices made by individual migrants who seek to derive positive returns from migration by doing a cost-benefit analysis of their migration decisions (Todaro 1969, 1980). Among other things, it showed that the central influences of these decisions include an assessment of differences in the probability of employment and earnings between origin and destination areas, which have become foundational tenets of the neoclassical micro-theory of migration (Massey et al. 1999).

Early theoretical approaches to the study of African migration also include the seminal work of Amin (1970, 1976), who provided a historical-structuralist perspective on migration in his work on dependency theory. A central argument made by the theory is that the focus on migration as a decision based on the rational choices of individuals is flawed (Amin 1974). From Amin's perspective, the migration process results from the peripheralization of African societies as a result of displacement caused by the penetration of global capitalism. He argued, for example, that global capitalism created inequalities in economic development in Africa that were responsible for the migration of labor between countries. These arguments were influential in laying the foundations used by Wallerstein (1974, 2011) to develop World Systems theory (Massey et al. 1999).

Quite apart from these was Mabogunje's (1970) development of Migration Systems theory, which is the most incisive theoretical contribution to the study of migration that emerged from Africa during this period. Although elements of migration systems, such as migration flows, counterflows, and their determinants, had been discussed in earlier studies, Mabogunje was the first to provide a theoretical elaboration of the concept of migration systems (Fawcett 1989). Like many early migration theorists (e.g., Lee 1966), his theory originated in his work on internal migration.

What Mabogunje (1970) formally referred to as a systems approach to a theory of migration was designed to highlight the key elements found in the diversity of factors that shape migration processes. These elements were the factors that determine why and how people migrate, the changes migrants undergo, the effects of these changes on migrants’ communities of origin, the institutions that encourage or discourage migration, and the general patterns of migration movements (Mabogunje 1970). A systems approach, Mabogunje argued, was needed to understand the attributes of these elements, the way they interact, and their relationships within specific social environments. Thus, from Mabogonje's perspective, migration processes can only be fully understood by assessing their determinants (i.e., why people migrate), the experiences of migrants (i.e., the changes they undergo), the role of institutions, and their geographic patterns and consequences.

Since its development, migration systems theory has become one of the major theories used in research on international migration (e.g., Bakewell 2014; Czaika and De Haas 2014). In fact, the theory was the main basis of seminal studies on international migration conducted by the International Union on the Scientific Study of Population (Lim 1987), and by Massey and colleagues (1993). Various attempts have since been made to extend, adapt, and relaunch migration systems theory (Bakewell 2014; Fawcett 1989). In one such attempt, Bakewell (2014) rightfully noted that the concept of migration systems continues to be a constant staple in reviews of migration theory (Bakewell 2014).

African International Migration Flows Since the 1980s

The 1980s marked the start of a major shift in the configuration of migration in Africa after the period of independence. As shown by Flahaux and De Haas (2016), this shift was defined by an increase in the number of international migrants in Africa during this period compared to that observed in previous decades. Estimates indicate, for example, that the percentage change in the number of international migrants in Africa was higher between 1980 and 2000 than between 1960 and 1980 (Flahaux and De Haas 2016). ² The shift was also important because it was observed during a period marked by an expansion of the influence of economic, political, and social factors on international migration in Africa.

Within African societies, the increase in international migration that was observed around the 1980s was associated with economic declines that were so serious that this period has been referred to as the lost decade (Easterly 2001). Structural Adjustment Programs were subsequently designed by the International Monetary Fund as solutions to the problem. These programs required African governments to curtail spending, reduce the size of the public sector, and implement other stringent policies that combined to reduce overall standards of living (Oppong 2014). Some of the worst economic challenges observed during this period occurred in Nigeria, where declining oil revenues contributed to increases in standards of living. As a result, in 1983 the Nigerian government expelled approximately two million undocumented immigrants, the majority of whom were Ghanaians who arrived in Nigeria in the 1970s (Aremu 2013; Daly 2023).

Significantly, the new phase of international migration also occurred in the context of widespread political instability, which contributed to the mass migration of refugees from countries such as Mozambique, Sudan, Liberia, and Somalia (Codjoe et al. 2013; Murunga 2009). Together with economic migrants, these refugee movements contributed to an increase in intra-continental migrations to countries such as Ghana, Kenya, and South Africa, which had traditionally attracted labor migrants in the previous decades (Codjoe et al. 2013; Muanamoha, Maharaj and Preston-Whyte 2010; Murunga 2009). Furthermore, the significance of Europe and North America as destinations for African migrants also increased during this period, as many Western countries accepted African refugees while also attracting economic migrants from the continent (Eby et al. 2011; Williams 2020).

By the start of the twenty-first century, the character and nature of African migration had become substantially different than they were in the 1960s. Indeed, international migration in Africa is now defined by a new set of realities. These include changes in the material conditions under which migration occurs, an expansion of the types of destinations to which migrants are attracted, and an increase in the types of migrants involved in these movements (e.g., Capps, McCabe, and Fix 2011; UNDESA 2020). Along with these realities is the use of new strategies to regulate international migration flows, increases in the risks Africans are willing to take to migrate, and an increase in the circulation of migrants between Africa and other continents (e.g., Idemudia et al. 2020).

Emerging Trends in International Migration in Africa

Several notable trends thus been observed in Africa that promise to shape international migration on the continent in the next few decades. These trends are emerging in the sense that they involve significant changes in the general direction of many migration patterns that existed on the continent in previous decades. Most of these trends have not been accompanied by corresponding increases in the development of new theoretical frameworks to understand their dynamics. It is difficult to describe the full range of patterns associated with these trends; however, there are at least five of them that help to summarize their current dynamics.

First, Africa's subregional international migration systems are becoming increasingly disconnected from the vestiges of colonial labor migration systems. These new postcolonial destinations include Egypt and Morocco in North Africa, Burkina Faso in West Africa, and Ethiopia and Sudan in East Africa. As observed in recent studies (e.g., IOM 2021), these countries are now among the leading destinations for international migrants in Africa. New economic opportunities in Central Africa are also contributing to the consolidation of a postcolonial international migration subsystem that revolves around natural resource extraction in Angola, Chad, and Equatorial Guinea (Janssen and Marchand 2020; Tshibambe 2020). In fact, estimates indicate that between 1990 and 2020 the foreign-born percentage increased by 2,000 percent in Equatorial Guinea, 600 percent in Angola, and approximately 270 percent in Chad (UNDESA 2020).

Added to these are other developments that are helping to transform the character of Africa's subregional migration systems. As a result of the reversal in its economic fortunes, Zimbabwe is no longer a country of net immigration as it was in the 1980s, but is now a country of net emigration (Macrotrends 2024). Countries such as Libya and Sudan, which were relatively stable just after their independence, recently became the origins of large-scale refugee movements to their neighboring countries (Brachet 2016; UN News 2023). Conversely, the end of major civil conflicts has transformed migration flows to countries such as Angola, which was a major source of refugees, but is now a major destination for economic migrants (Augusto and King 2020).

Second, the geographic configuration of international migration in Africa is expanding. Although the majority of African migrants still move to destinations within the continent (IOM 2021), Africans are now increasingly migrating to destinations further afield. By the turn of the twentieth century, countries such as Australia, Canada, New Zealand, and the United States had become major destinations of Africans migrating to other continents (e.g., Adelowo, Smythe, and Nakhid 2016; Konadu-Agyemang and Takyi 2006). By contrast, in the first half of the century, these countries had policies that specifically discouraged the immigration of Africans (Konadu-Agyemang and Takyi 2006). Countries in Europe, Asia, and South America are also receiving a growing number of international migrants from Africa (Cisse 2021; Joint Refugee Service 2022). These include approximately half a million Africans in China (e.g., Cisse 2021) and the growing African-born populations in Israel, Australia, Japan, and Russia (e.g., Agyeman 2015; Bondarenko et al. 2009; Kaplan 2010). Central and South American countries have similarly witnessed an increase in the arrival of African migrants in recent years, who use them as either transit points for subsequent migration to the United States or as countries of permanent settlement (Joint Refugee Service 2022).

Third, the diversity of migrant types found in Africa is still increasing. This diversity is based on factors associated with why, how, and which Africans migrate. For example, recent African immigrants in the West have included an increasing number of people migrating for family reunification purposes (e.g., Capps, McCabe, and Fix 2011). In fact, one study estimates that the number of Africans migrating to the United States as the immediate family members of U.S. citizens increased by 700 percent from about 50 per African country in 1994 to 350 per African country in 2008 (Thomas 2011). Within Africa, countries affected by the negative consequences of climate change are now among the world's major sources of environmental migrants (Obokata, Veronis, and McLeman 2014), while student migration to African and non-African destinations has continued to increase (e.g., Mulvey 2021). In terms of how they migrate, many Africans are now increasingly using channels associated with both regular and irregular migration (De Haas 2008). The use of the latter has been more concerning given the tens of thousands of Africans who have died while making dangerous journeys to Europe (e.g., Idemudia et al. 2020). More women also migrating than was the case in previous decades (Özden et al. 2011; United Nations 2020). For example, estimates from the United Nations indicate that the number of female migrants in sub-Saharan Africa increased from 6.76 million in 1990 to 10.57 million in 2020 (United Nations 2020).

Fourth, the significance of migration to Africa from many non-African countries is increasing. For example, one estimate indicates that the number of Chinese immigrants in Africa increased from about 130,000 in 2001 to at least 600,000 by the end of the decade (Park 2009). These migrants are now found in countries such as Algeria, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Nigeria, Guinea, and Ethiopia (China–Africa Research Initiative 2023). Many migrants from the West are also arriving on the continent to build on economic and political relationships formed between European countries and their former colonies in Africa (e.g., Augusto and King 2020). These include French citizens living in former French colonies in Africa, who account for one of the largest European immigrant populations on the continent (Maganda 2020). Other Westerners now arriving in Africa include African Americans who are migrating to Ghana (e.g., Fehler 2011), and highly skilled Portuguese migrants in Angola (Augusto and King 2020).

Finally, African migration trends are now increasingly regulated by the expanding role of institutions. Most of these efforts are led by national and supranational institutions. The actions of the former have been spearheaded by national immigration authorities, local authorities, and security forces (e.g., de Vletter 2012; Freeman 2019; Landau 2006). For example, local municipal assemblies, traditional chiefs, and civil society organizations in Ghana are now among the major stakeholders that attempt to influence international migration (de Vletter 2012). With regard to supranational institutions, the most important roles are played by treaty organizations such as the Economic Community for West African States (ECOWAS), the East African Economic Community (ECA), and the Southern African Development Community (SADC) (Adepoju, Boulton, and Levin 2010). The most successful of these is ECOWAS, which has developed passports for West African citizens that ensure visa-free travel for all citizens in the region (Adepoju, Boulton, and Levin 2010). At the other end of the spectrum is the lack of similar progress in the SADC region, due to South Africa's concerns about the consequences of visa-free travel for immigration to the country (Oucho and Crush 2001). At the continental level, the most promise for eliminating controls to the migration of African citizens is provided by the African Union's Protocol to the Treaty Establishing the African Economic Community Relating to Free Movement of Persons, Right of Residence, and Right of Establishment (Check 2022). By the end of 2023, five countries—Benin, Kenya, the Gambia, Seychelles, and Rwanda—had taken steps toward this goal by eliminating all visa requirements for African citizens (Hirsch 2023).

Outside Africa, however, institutions are increasingly acting to reduce, restrict, and eliminate pathways of immigration for Africans. For example, European governments have systematically adopted border control measures designed to reduce immigration from Africa (Asiegbu 2009). African immigrants are similarly experiencing similar levels of control in the United States. For example, recent attempts have been made to eliminate the Diversity Visa program, which provides a major pathway of immigration from Africa (Andersson 2022). Additionally, Africans from countries such as Nigeria, Sudan, and Eritrea were among citizens from majority Muslim countries that were banned from immigrating to the United States under the Trump administration (Kanno-Youngs 2021). The European Union and some individual governments in Europe are also using bilateral agreements to attempt to regulate immigration from Africa (European Union 2022). Some of these agreements provide incentives to selected African countries to restrict the emigration of their citizens, accept migrants deported from Europe, and address the root causes of migration (European Union 2022; Walsh 2024).

Contemporary Theoretical Approaches in African Migration

All these trends are defining the landscape of migration in Africa at a time of notable improvements in the technology and data needed for generating new insights into the determinants of migration. Although there is much that still needs to be done, data on international migration in Africa are now available from more diverse sources than in the past, while indirect estimation techniques and experimental methods have increased the ways in which migration data are collected and analyzed (Rogers et al. 2010; Vigneswaran 2012). Despite the availability of these tools, however, these trends have not been accompanied by the development of new theoretical approaches to examine their dynamics. Yet this problem extends to a substantial part of the migration literature, due to the general reliance on a fixed compendium of theories to study a phenomenon as dynamic as migration. As a result, theoretical studies on contemporary African migration tend to fall into two main groups. The first includes studies that use Africa as a context for testing migration theories that became increasingly popular after 1970. The second is defined by a limited number of studies that attempt to break new ground by developing new approaches for understanding these trends.

Most studies that use Africa as a context for testing migration theories are based on assessments of economic theories of migration. This reflects ongoing concerns about the role of poverty, unemployment, and the lack of economic opportunity as determinants of migration. Neoclassical economic theory has thus been extensively used to assess recent trends in the international migration of African professionals (e.g., Abuosi and Abor 2015; Olubiyi 2021) and labor migration in Africa's subregions (e.g., Dinbabo and Nyasulu 2015). Olubiyi (2021), for example, uses the theory to show how income differentials and the sizes of economies contribute to the emigration of highly skilled Nigerians. Others have also used neoclassical perspectives to explain why Ethiopians migrate to other countries (e.g., Ayanie et al. 2020), and demonstrate why South Africa's high per-capita income continues to attract migrants from other African countries (Dinbabo and Nyasulu 2015).

This focus on economic issues is complemented by other studies that use the New Economics of Labor Migration theory (NELM) to show, among other things, how international migration contributes to African development. These studies provide some of the best evidence underscoring the importance of migrant remittances for improving livelihoods (e.g., Gebregziabher, Makina, and Hadush 2024; Gupta, Pattillo, and Wagh 2009). Other scholars similarly use the NELM theory to identify poverty reduction, improved economic growth, and increased financial development as specific pathways through which this remittance effect is usually observed (Gupta, Pattillo, and Wagh 2009).

Compared to this growing body of research informed by economic theories of migration, few studies have examined the relevance of non-economic theories in African contexts. Among them are studies from the Migration between Africa and Europe project that use social network theory to show how social networks shape African migration to Europe (e.g., Caarls, Bilgili, and Fransen 2021; González-Ferrer et al. 2018). Other studies have similarly examined how these networks affect international migration on the continent (e.g., Muanamoha, Maharaj, and Preston-Whyte 2010). Furthermore, segmented labor market theory has been used to show how the permanent demand for unskilled labor in the Middle East attracts international migrants from Ethiopia (Ayanie et al. 2020).

Several attempts have also been made to understand the relevance of World Systems theory for international migration in Africa. Some of these are found in studies discussing how African migration is driven by cultural ties developed during the colonial period, following the penetration of global capitalism (e.g., Massey et al. 1999), which explain why many Africans from former French and British colonies migrate to Europe (e.g., Arthur 2016; Gueye 2006; Imoagene 2012). Other scholars use the theory to describe how international labor migration in Africa stems from the dispossession of agricultural workers as a result of the expansion of global capitalism, which creates tensions between migrant-sending and migrant-receiving countries (e.g., Arrighi, Aschoff, and Scully 2010; Nshimbi 2022).

As shown in prior research (e.g., Garip 2012), the use of conventional theories of migration generally tends to be rooted in the realities observed in migration patterns and trends. To some extent, this is also true of the match between the patterns of migration in African countries and some migration theories. For example, most long-distance migrations, including those of highly skilled African professionals migrating to the West, and recent migration trends in resource-rich countries in Central Africa, are driven by the search for higher incomes. As such, these movements are consistent with the expectations of neo-classical migration theory (Abuosi and Abor 2015; Olubiyi 2021). Other scholars (e.g., Arrighi, Aschoff, and Scully 2010; Nshimbi 2022) have convincingly demonstrated that contemporary international migration in Western and Southern Africa continues to be influenced by the super-penetration of global capitalism. Thus, these migration patterns are associated with the predictions of World Systems theory. Lastly, there are the traditional patterns of labor circulation and remittance-sending behavior observed among male migrants from Lesotho and Mozambique employed in South Africa (Makhetha 2020; Mercandalli, Nshimbi, and Moyo 2017). These observations are generally consistent with the migration flows driven by risk-diversification predicted by the New Economics of Labor Migration Theory (Garip 2012).

Moving beyond the testing of existing theories, a few studies have developed new theories of migration and other novel insights that advance our understanding of emerging trends. One of these is Carling and Haugen's (2021) theory of circumstantial migration, which focuses on the unpredictable determinants of migration that has been used to explain international migration from Gambia to China. Other studies focus on the social integration of immigrants at their destinations rather than the determinants of recent migration trends. For example, Imoagene's (2017) work on Beyond Racialization theory highlights how the identities of second-generation Nigerian immigrants are affected by their proximal hosts, use of ethnicity as a resource, and transnational linkages. Added to this is the work of Binaisa (2013), who postulated the Diasporic Landscape theory to explain how migration and integration affect the everyday practices of home and belonging among Ugandan immigrants in the United Kingdom. Within African countries attempts have also been made to develop new frameworks that examine friendships among urban residents, including immigrants and internal migrants (Landau 2018), which have helped to advance our understanding of immigrant integration on the continent.

Novel insights on migration have also been developed in the humanities. Accordingly, a new form of migration dialog has emerged in literary discourses that do not perceive Africa specifically from the enclave of negritude, Pan-Africanism, or nationalistic consciousness, which were popular in the 1960s. Instead, it uses the concept of Afropolitanism to acknowledge the cosmopolitan and transnational nature of African identities. Coined by Nigerian–Ghanian writer Taiye Selasi in her journalese “Bye Bye Barbar” (Selasi 2005), the concept focuses on a new generation of Africans who are a blend of multiple cultures, and localities, that Tanure Ojaide argues affect new African immigrants “caught in the postcolonial bind of multiple homelands” (Ojaide 2012, 31). The term “Afropolitan” has since been popularized by Achille Mbembe, who describes it as the name for the “African-world-to-come … [it is a] body in motion, never in its place, whose center moves everywhere” (Mbembe 2021, 6).

This idea of reconstructing Africa as a place in the world and African immigrants as Africans in the world is further seen in the decolonial consciousness that characterizes the work of contemporary African writers such as Chimamanda Ngozi Adichie. It is demonstrated in her novel, Americanah, which she uses to explicate concepts such as race, home, identity, hair, language, gender, and borders (Adichie 2014). Other African literary writers (e.g., Bulawayo 2014; Habila 2019; Mengestu 2007) have used similar perspectives to examine the racial, socioeconomic, cultural, and geographical implications of migration in the new African diaspora as well as the new issues that emanate from these multinational interactions.

The Social Context of Future Migration Flows

Although contemporary theoretical approaches have helped to advance research on migration in Africa, they are unlikely to provide a comprehensive basis for developing new insights into future migration trends on the continent. The major challenge associated with the development of these new insights is the fact that future trends in African migration will occur in societies that are constantly being transformed in ways that can affect migration processes in unpredictable ways. Changes in social norms have made it more acceptable for women to migrate by themselves than it was in the past (Ojong 2019). Additionally, improvements in access to social media have provided potential migrants with the tools they need to learn about new destinations abroad and gain access to networks that can facilitate their dreams of migration (Akanle, Fayehun, and Oyelakin 2021). Access to education is also increasing (Lewin 2009). This is important because education is positively associated with favorable views of migration and can increase the human-capital of potential migrants (Borgonovi and Pokropek 2019; Dustmann and Glitz 2011). Thus, as access to education increases, future African migrants are likely to have high levels of human-capital and other specific skills that will help them compete for prestigious jobs in labor markets abroad.

Of all the social transitions that could affect the future of African migration, however, few are as important as those that will occur in the demography of Africa. With more than 60% of Africa's population under the age of 25, the continent now has the world's youngest population (Mpemba and Munyati 2023). While this distinction is important in itself, population projections for sub-Saharan Africa indicate that the percentage of youths in the region will significantly increase in the next few decades (e.g., Dews 2019). ³ Accordingly, sub-Saharan Africa's youth population is expected to increase by 522 million between 2015 and 2050, while that in all other regions combined is expected to increase by 220 million (Dews 2019). This means that in the next twenty-five years, sub-Saharan Africa will have at least 300 million more youths compared to every other region of the world.

The consequences of these demographic changes are likely to significantly affect international migration trends. This expectation is based on research showing how the probability of migration changes as age increases (e.g., Wilson 2010). As shown in previous studies, this probability is high at age 1, due to the migration of infants with their parents, but it declines as age increases up until the early teenage years, and is highest between the mid-to-late teenage years and the mid-twenties (Rogers et al. 2010). Projected changes in the world's youth population therefore imply that, in the coming decades, Africa will have the world's largest number of people in the age groups where the highest probabilities of migration are usually observed.

African societies are also experiencing corresponding transformations in the performance of their economies (IMF 2023). For example, the continent is currently the home of countries with some of the world's highest levels of real GDP growth and fastest-growing economies (IMF 2023). Africa's internet economy, which experienced a tenfold increase between 2012 and 2022, is expected to grow to around $750 billion in value by 2050 (Dupoux et al. 2022), while its agricultural market is expected to increase fourfold to $1 trillion by the end of this decade (Hodder and Migwalla 2023). Additionally, future African economic growth due to the expansion of trade, the exploitation of natural resources, and its growing population is expected to result in a sevenfold increase in the continent's contribution to the global economy by 2050 (Mohseni-Cheraghlou 2023).

As these contributions increase, so will per-capita incomes increase. Indeed, if recent growth rates are sustained over the next three decades and spread across all African countries, these countries will collectively experience a sixfold increase in per-capita incomes by 2050 (Ahlers, Kohli, and Sood 2013). With these increases in income, the monetary costs of migration are expected to decline, which will make migration increasingly more affordable. At no point in African history are such dramatic income increases expected to be concurrently observed with dramatic increases in the size of its youth population.

One way to understand the implications of these changes is to situate them within the context of the migration hump model. Originally postulated by Martin (Martin and Taylor 1996), the model indicates that the relationship between migration and economic development can be described with an inverted U shape. In short, migration rates increase as incomes increase, before declining with further increases in income. While some scholars argue that the model correctly predicts the future of emigration from sub-Saharan Africa (e.g., Belloc 2015), others have questioned its general validity (Bencek and Schneiderheinze 2020). What remains clear, however, is that there are no empirical studies assessing its relevance for future migration trends in and out of Africa. Nevertheless, the model suggests that both of these trends are poised to increase before eventually declining sometime in the future.

Notably, the migration response to these demographic and economic transformations will occur in the larger context of changes in the policy environment in which international migration occurs. Such transformations are already occurring in Europe and North America, where opportunities for immigration are increasingly threatened by rising anti-immigration rhetoric, refugee fatigue, and restrictions to immigration from the global South (e.g., Landry et al. 2020; Wiggen 2024).

At the same time, the institutional environment in Africa is becoming somewhat unpredictable. On the one hand, the African Union, which is the African equivalent of the European Union, is moving toward a more liberal international migration regime. On the other hand, migrants’ rights are increasingly being challenged in countries around the continent by institutional actions taken to securitize migration issues and negative attitudes toward migrants (Akinola 2018). For example, some political leaders in South Africa have routinely used rhetoric that frames immigrants as threats to society (e.g., Ilgit and Klotz 2014). Other countries such as Tanzania, Kenya, and Sudan have used personnel from their national armed forces to militarize refugee camps in ways that negatively affect the lives of their residents (e.g., Freeman 2019; Landau 2006; Song 2012). Xenophobia toward African immigrants in Liberia, Ivory Coast, Sierra Leone, and South Africa (Akinola 2018) similarly represents an obstacle to the achievement of continental goals on the free movement of persons. As a result, it is difficult to predict the type of policy responses that will be triggered by future demographic and economic pressures on the demand for migration in Africa.

All these transformations are likely to influence population mobility in ways that could either accelerate or constrict prevailing trends in African international migration. Holding other factors constant, future population growth could result in increases in the number of Africans migrating to new destinations on the continent and in other regions. At least in the short run, increasing incomes could make the costs of migration more affordable to potential African migrants. The growth of economic opportunities could also lead to increases in the number of Africans and non-Africans migrating to destinations with expanding economic opportunities, as is already being observed in Central Africa (Janssen and Marchand 2020; Tshibambe 2020). Ultimately, these changes will attract policy responses from local and international institutions as they seek to control the migration of Africans to serve their own purposes.

Theory Building and the Future of International Migration in Africa

There is no question that emerging international migration trends, ongoing socioeconomic improvements, and demographic transformations in African societies will create new opportunities for advancing research on international migration. By themselves, however, existing migration theories will be inadequate for describing the wide range of circumstances under which future migration flows will occur. While these theories will be relevant for understanding the central determinants of African migration processes, fresh perspectives will be needed to expand the analytical repertoire for conducting future migration research.

One reason for this is that future African migration trends will occur in social environments that differ from many of those used to develop existing migration theories. For example, Lewis’s (1954) formulation of neoclassical macro-theory of migration was based, among other things, on migration flows between India, China, and the United States. Similarly, Piore's (1979) segmented labor market theory was developed using the experiences of industrial societies in the previous century. Given the unique character of the transformations that are expected to occur in African societies, new theoretical frameworks are needed to capture the substance of these transformations and their broader implications for research.

At this point, our goal is not to develop new theories of migration in Africa. Instead, our focus is on identifying the critical building blocks needed for developing such theories. Ideally, these building blocks should be developed using a two-pronged strategy. The first involves shifting the epistemological basis on which migration theory is developed by using a decolonization approach to theory building. The second is more substantive. It involves elevating the importance of the critical factors that are expected to define the future of African migration into theory-building processes.

The decolonization approach has its origins in the 1960s, when it was promoted by scholars concerned about the lack of representation of marginalized individuals in the generation, control, and circulation of knowledge about them (Nimführ 2022). The approach rejects the coloniality that defines the dominant systems of knowledge production, which are controlled by the West, and advocates for new ways of thinking that elevate the significance of knowledge production processes in marginalized societies (e.g., Itzigsohn 2023). Migration scholars are now increasingly advocating for the use of decolonial approaches in migration research (Bashi 2023; Itzigsohn 2023; Nasser-Eddin and Abu-Assab 2020; Nimführ 2022).

These approaches are also needed for developing new theories of migration in Africa. For example, theory building can be geared toward framing the end goal of migration in ways that emphasize the importance of African values such as community, harmony, and oneness (Owusu-Ansah and Mji 2013). Doing so will shift attention away from the theoretical focus on the search for higher incomes as an end in itself, to issues that are more relevant to African societies. Such a shift in focus is needed because the changes expected to be observed in future African migration flows are too important to be solely analyzed using theories developed in non-African societies.

At the same time, comprehensive analysis of future migration flows in Africa will require new theoretical frameworks that provide an increased emphasis on at least four substantive issues—spatial integration perspectives, demographic realities, institutional dynamics, and migrant experiences. While these are by no means the only factors that will determine future African migration trends, they are among the most important.

Spatial integration perspectives are needed to account for the fact that African international migration movements are becoming part of what scholars consider to be a single spatial system (e.g., Lichter, Parisi, and Ambinakudige 2020). Although these perspectives were extensively used in social science research in the 1960s and 1970s, they are now becoming increasingly incorporated in recent studies on migration (e.g., Lichter, Parisi, and Ambinakudige 2020; Wessel et al. 2017).

As African migration flows become more geographically dispersed, these perspectives will be needed to move the theoretical focus beyond movements restricted to specific levels of geography (e.g., within Africa or between Africa and Europe). Spatial integration perspectives will underscore the interdependence of these movements as well as how these interdependencies change among and between levels of geography. In the process, they will also help to emphasize the interconnectedness of the social, cultural, and economic forces that shape migration processes (Lichter, Parisi, and Ambinakudige 2020).

For example, new opportunities for migration to non-African destinations are emerging at the same time as corresponding opportunities for migration within Africa are increasing. As a result, many African migrants are responding to these realities by adapting their movements to simultaneously explore opportunities abroad while maintaining their connections to opportunities emerging on the continent (Lyons, Brown, and Li 2008). In fact, concurrent connections to opportunities across space are the basis for much of the migrant circulation that occurs within and between destinations with different geographies. Among other things, they are reflected in the circular migration of African business owners between China and Africa (Lyons, Brown, and Li 2008), and transnational migration between Africa and the West (e.g., Crisford 2022).

Spatial integration perspectives are further essential for capturing the growing geographic significance of Africa in the spatial reorganization of global migration flows. For example, African countries now host refugees from Asian countries such as Afghanistan, Syria, and Yemen (e.g., Ayoub and Khallaf 2014; Ben Hamida et al. 2021), and are becoming destinations of migrants deported from Europe (Walsh 2024). Furthermore, new economic opportunities emerging on the continent are not only attracting migrants from other African countries, but also attracting migrants from countries in other world regions (e.g., Kuang 2008). As observed in recent studies, non-African immigrants are now increasingly involved in undocumented migration to African countries (Cisse 2021). As economic opportunities on the continent expand, Africa is also becoming an alternative destination to non-African migrants unable to migrate to the West, which partly explains the recent growth of Chinese immigration to African countries (Kuang 2008).

Theory building in African international migration studies will further need to give particular attention to the importance of the continent's demographic realities. Only a few previous studies have acknowledged the role of these realities (e.g., Hatton and Williamson 2003); therefore, more comprehensive analyses will be needed to fully understand their importance. The process should start by adequately accounting for inequalities in the demographic profiles of the origin and destination countries of African migrants. We know, for example, that future growth in Africa's youth population will occur at the same time as population aging is increasing in North America, Europe, and parts of Asia (Poutvaara 2021). However, the specific ways in which these contrasting trends will affect migration are not fully understood.

Some studies have suggested that these inequalities will increase future demand for Africa migrants who are recruited to work with the elderly and other low-paying jobs in the West (Kenny and Yang 2021). However, it is not clear how this demand will be shaped by the fact that Africa's youth are also expected to have expanded access to higher education, which could potentially shift their job preferences. A focus on demographic realities will also increase opportunities for examining how country-level demographic mismatches will affect international migration in Africa. For example, population aging is expected to increase more rapidly in the Northern and Southern parts of Africa than in Western and Eastern Africa (Pillay and Maharaj 2012). As such, it will be important to assess whether these disparities will expand opportunities for migration to destinations in the former for young Africans in the latter.

The viability of these opportunities will depend on the dynamics of institutions and the changing demands of institutional actors. New theoretical insights will be needed to better understand the hierarchy of these actors, the significance of their objectives, and the various ways in which they can affect migration policy. To some extent, this is because the institutional actors that affect African migration are more diverse than they were in the past. However, the theoretical basis for predicting how they will influence future international migration flows remains limited.

Supranational organizations (e.g., European Union, and African Union) and nation states will likely continue to be among the major institutional actors that affect migration policy. However, the influence of non-state actors is rapidly expanding. These actors include private military corporations recruiting African workers for jobs in conflict zones (Thomas 2017), recruiters of labor migrants for agricultural, domestic, and manufacturing jobs (ILO 2021), and migrant advocacy organizations. Added to these is a vast array of non-state actors operating outside the boundaries of the law, including smugglers, enforcers, and others providing ancillary services to support irregular migration (Ayalew, Adugna, and Deshingkar 2018).

Regardless of their operational differences, the goals of institutions are always changing. Immigration priorities of state institutions are subject to change depending on the outcomes of electoral processes (Pierce and Selee 2017). Non-state actors also adjust their priorities to adapt to changes in the demand for their services (e.g., Reitano 2015). Faced with stricter immigration controls to migration to Europe from North Africa through the Mediterranean Sea, smugglers adapted their operations to give them greater control of the smuggling enterprise (Reitano 2015). Smugglers in other parts of Africa have similarly adapted their operations in response to changing immigration policy conditions (Hanlon and Herbert 2015). Consequently, future policies that regulate migration developed by state actors, and the corresponding responses of non-state actors to circumvent these policies, will create a dynamic environment that will make it difficult to assess the effectiveness of immigration policy.

New theoretical insights can also be developed by improving the integration of migrant experiences into migration theory. Although these experiences were a central element of Mabongunje's migration systems theory (Mabogunje 1970), their degree of integration into existing migration theories is limited. To the extent that experiences affect decision-making processes (Liu and Aaker 2007), a renewed focus on them is needed to clarify the choices migrants make as they move from one place to another. Some progress in this direction is already emerging in research on the relationship between experiences of trauma and forced migration (Nakash et al. 2015).

Other opportunities for integrating migrants’ experiences into theory are available in research on the consequences of migration. Sociologists have paved the way to these developments by using migrant experiences to develop theoretical frameworks for understanding the social integration of African immigrants abroad (e.g., Imoagene 2012). Within Africa, psychologists have further used immigrants’ experiences of xenophobic violence to understand the emotional consequences of migration (Chigeza et al. 2013). Interrogating migrants’ experiences can further help us to understand a wide range of other issues. For example, it could help us to understand why some migrants prefer destinations in African rather than non-African countries, how experiences shape risk-taking behavior in irregular migration, and why many migrants work to promote social change after returning to their origin countries.

While our goal is not to advance a new theory of migration, the elements we describe above can be wholly or partly integrated into new ways of thinking about the dynamics of African migration. Consistent with the decolonial approach, studies on why African migration occurs could begin with the analysis of African perspectives on the goals of migration and not with the goal of testing conventional migration theories. The latter would still be important, but only to the extent that they are useful for interpreting whether these goals are consistent with existing theoretical frameworks. In some cases, they will not be consistent and this will require the development of alternative frameworks for interpreting these goals. Spatial integration perspectives could then be used to capture macrolevel interconnections in the geographic configurations of the origin and destination countries associated with African migration.

Africa's demographic realities could then be incorporated into the analysis to understand changes in the expected size, direction, and composition of migration flows observed within these configurations. An assessment of the institutional dynamics that influence African migration would be useful for providing insight into the countervailing actions of state and non-state institutions used to regulate the impacts of these demographic realities. Lastly, a greater emphasis on migrant experiences will be needed to understand how international migration processes affect the social, psychological, and economic attributes of migrants before they migrate, at their destination countries, and on their return to their origin countries.