Part I: Central and Eastern Europe: The Twin Specters of Mass Unwanted Migration and Mass Involuntary Migration: Post-Soviet Emigration Today and Tomorrow

This article deals with the problems of post-Soviet emigration. The author tries to answer the question: What will the post-Soviet emigration “curve” look like within the next few years. Its peak appears most likely to be reached in 1993 to 1994, when the number of departures may go up to 1–1.5 million people a year. This may happen if the present unfavorable socioeconomic conditions and instability continue to exist and if technical problems related to exit arrangements are solved. Once the situation normalizes first and foremost in Russia, the scope of emigration may be maintained at a level of 500,000 to 600,000 people per annum within the next two or three years and then begin to decline.